Diamonds

[navybuttons 15]

Mixed strategies. If you aren't familiar with game theoretics think of it like some times you might play a hand one way and some times play it another. As exploitive players we do this naturally to exploit.

 

To play poker truly unexploitively we have to utilize them. What's amazing to me is when human players trying to play unexploitively intuitively pick-up mixed strategies.

 

What it means from a Diamonds perspective is that I have no clue which play has more confidence with KK2 between flipping a K and flipping the 2. And I have no idea how often I should be doing each.

 

And just to reiterate, if You always flip one and I flip each at the optimal frequency I'm sla-sla-slaughtering you.

 

(For MinhLyFan)

[JubilantLankyLad 1,957]

I've missed trying to understand Dustin's thoughts.

[navybuttons 15]

Intuition and "flow of traffic" principles say with KK2 we flip the K most often. With KKJ we flip the Jack more often than we flip the 2 with KK2.

 

With KK2-KKQ flip a K most often and the other card X% with X being higher the higher rank the card is.

 

EZ Game. Oh, but wait...

[MinhLyFan 1]

Before I sit at this table, I would just like to say that this is beautiful game. And I hope everyone realizes that poker is poker. If you want to be the best poker player you can be, you have to find a way to make sense of the solution, because you're not going to understand it. If you could understand it, you would have it. But because you don't have it, you're reading this thread. The solution is not going to make sense, and if it you leave it that way, you don't really want the solution, you want something else. To those men, I say, you probably have something or someone more worthwhile. However, to those who want to make sense of two mad men, your efforts will not go unrewarded. I will say, though, that I, once, was not a mad man.

 

Navy, your ideas are so clean.

 

Now think about this...

 

This game has many dimensions: Flipping, Speeding, Sizing, Balancing (flipping, timing of flipping, sizing, action frequencies, action frequencies with flip timing etc) , Exploiting with an infinite number of solutions.

 

Before I start wandering off into space, I would like to say that at some point we have to realize what's within our abilities and finding a playable solution, not a theoretically correct solution, is the solution. Don't get the impression that I believe that these are not the same, only that we have to entertain such an idea that the two are possibly different.

 

When I look at this game, this is what I think is going to be most important. We want to play our cards in a way that makes our opponents' decisions as difficult as possible, as often as possible, and maximally exploit this using betting strategies.

 

I think that is why reverse polarity is so significant, in any poker game, because if you understand it and use it effectively, it makes you incredibly difficult to play against all the time. In addition, your idea that speeding is the fundamental strategy that is the foundation of reverse polarity exists because it's application to poker in an effective way is to get your opponents in a position where they can make the most number of mistakes that lead to you winning hands. By constantly being aggressive, you give your opponents the chance to make the most number of costly mistakes possible by leveraging an informational advantage through betting strategies. How we can do this effectively in diamonds is going to be the key to the solution.

 

In diamonds, as in any other poker game, the best strategies are going to be those which hide the most information possible about your hand, reveal the most information possible about your opponents', while using betting strategies to exploit this information maximally. But I think it's important to prioritize these strategies, as game theory will prove that some will be more important than others. For instance, in HULH, constructing perfectly balanced action frequencies gets destroyed when you factor in pot odds. So, obviously, you must construct a range of playable hands first. Then, you can construct balanced action frequency ranges.

 

This game presents a particularly difficult problem for me, because it's difficult for me to say with any confidence what this game and these ranges would look like being played on a high level. All I can really do is conceptualize based on my current understanding of how poker games function. When I do that, I have to believe that I am going to want to put myself in positions where I can do two things: be the speeder with a radar detector, or be the cop, most often with the largest number of hands which are able to do both as often as possible. These are going to be the only situations which are profitable, as being in traffic jams or being pulled over are losing and the only situations left. How can we do this in diamonds?

 

Thinking about it, optimal play from the BB and SB are going to be very different. Like in every game, the SB is more often than not going to be the speeder and vice versa. The SB is going to always have an informational advantage (radar). And the BB is going to have a much better chance at playing a cop than outrunning a man with a radar and a faster car, without getting pulled over, or getting in a race where the payoff for winning is smaller than the ticket for speeding. As a result, it seems as though for the BB, patrolling is going to be the default strategy unless we steal the radar or get some nitrous during the hand. And the SB is almost always going to want to be finding that AVERAGE speed that allows him to go as fast as possible as often as possible without getting pulled over, even thought this number is fluid. Think about what that might be and why... it's probably ~10-20 over.

 

Let's think about what this means. The BB couldn't possibly be flipping his highest cards all the time, because that announces either he's a cop or a speeder, and his action is going to tell the SB which. Then the BB is either going to be a better cop than the SB is a speeder, or a speeder that will out run the BB when he's speeding, or a cop that knows the BB is a speeder. However, if the BB is flipping as close to the mean of all his playable cards as often as possible, he strongly maintains his position as either a cop, or a speeder in a cop car. And the best the SB can do is maintain his position as a speeder, but he cannot always just go as fast as possible now because he has to be afraid of a speed trap or a speed trap where he's always going faster than his opponent. Knowing this, the BB should want to be flipping as close to the mean of cards as possible that maintain his strong position as a speeder (probably flipping marginally above the BB as often as possible, with thresholds on both sides dictated by the flip card of the BB). This would allow both players to effectively have the most reverse polarity vs. a particular opponent and flip card from each position. The next consideration is going to be betting strategies and how they are going to be applied to diamonds effectively from each position, the speeder in the SB and the cop in the BB.

 

Because of the structure of the game, there is going to be a natural progression of speed possible from street to street. And the more speed applied early, the faster both can drive on the later streets. Inherently, the SB is going to be able to dictate the average speed of the hand and will be able to leverage that speed with more impunity. As such, the BB is going to have to be very conscious of how fast he can drive with which hands vs. his opponents flips. For example, he knows he can't possibly keep up with an 8 vs. a K, and if he tries, the SB is going to know everything. Either way, he's going to be losing.

(this is a bad spot for the BB, but is it worse than the SB's spot when he has k8k?) This results in a strategy that is going to have to be balanced based on the average speeds of the SB and his flips. And the BB is likely going to be dictating his average speed on the advantage he has knowing the BBs flip and the edge he can create with his flips and the cards in his hand/runout, almost always just punching it off the line and deciding whether or not to speed as he approaches his average speed (10-20 over) on later streets, which is dictated by the BB's ability to maintain a strong position as a cop or potential speeder.

 

Now, when heading to the later streets, the complexity of the game is dramatically increased. But as long as you're conscious of your position as a cop vs. speeder, speeder vs. cop, speeder vs. speeder or some other evolving combination, and how that's always fluid, you're going to be playing closer to the solution than just speeding, or just patrolling. The idea is clear, though, that you're constantly in a battle for control, control of your information, control of his, and control of how you can possibly leverage that information with betting strategies.

 

This is just the beginning for diamonds. This game is just gas and dust in my head. But I am sure Navy is going to heat things up.

[navybuttons 15]

And THOSE, ladies and gentlemen, are the DIAMONDS!

 

It's gonna take me awhile to pick up all the pieces of my brain.

[navybuttons 15]

Okay so generally the SB is gonna want high flow of traffic while the BB is gonna be the cop trying to catch speeders. Generally.

 

Sometimes the BB is gonna wanna rake with big hands (KKx, QQx), in other words, the cop between shifts who is driving the other direction. Of course the solution balances those times with times you rake with hands from a huge distribution. Nearly all sorts of garbage is played at least some percentage of the time. A hand like 972 sometimes might have to be a cop going the other way who's going to break a speed trap and 7-bet on 1st if stacks are right.

 

Because here come the diamonds...

 

And after the diamonds the hands that the speeding cop was speeding with are either crushed by them or missed them completely giving the cop the better opportunity for reversed polarity.

 

Oh, those diamonds?

 

The speeders want to go fast? You think so do you? Yup, they go fast alright.

 

But the speeding cop? Well he's got rockets with afterburners strapped to his go-cart.

 

And you can't board lock him until the river.

 

Oh, those diamonds?

[MinhLyFan 1]

I hypothesized that the speeding cop was going to be the boss in my first post, and this is why (referring to navy's post). Successful poker strategies revolve around a few fundamental ideas: readability (of your hands and your opponents'), aggression, and versatility. The speeding cop is a combination of all three. So what now? We have two speeding cops driving a million miles an hour with whomever started with the head start winning the race everytime and the head start switches every hand. Now, who's the federal agent that is going to can both the speeding cops?

[navybuttons 15]

BB flips a deuce and lights the rockets.

 

SB flips a deuce and the BB lights the afterburners, and his go-kart starts wailing like the hounds.

 

Intuition is saying the highest confidence is going to be flipping big cards (K-T) on 1st, low cards (2-5) on 2, and medium cards (6-9) on the river. And when you decide to be the speeding cop it's, generally, the lowest card on 1st.

 

Because here come the diamonds...

 

KK2 is going to flip the 2 way way more than 662 flips the 2. Of course you might still flip the 2 with 872ss and 5 bet on 1st like it's nothing, because it is.

 

Oh, those diamonds?

 

The federal agent is pairing your board on 2nd.

[MinhLyFan 1]

Here we go...

 

If someone were to drop a deuce on me, I am always going to play speeding cop with evil knievel in the drivers seat. Because, a duece is putting yourself into a super polarized range for the rest of the hand. It's the least versatile card to flip with little potential to win big pots. In the hand with kk2, flipping a K is going to put the sb in a spot where he's going to realize that the most versatile he can be is a cop that's going 5 over, but that's about it. However, that's probably not as bad a spot as being the BB and having to choose between a k or a 2 to flip. This is because, to me, flipping a duece is like cold capping and checking a q24 flop IP. If someone does it to me, I am going to be playing cautiously with an informational advantage, and the BB is never going to get crazy if I flip a T and I start running dynamic diamonds. In which case, he's going to get wrecked on the big bet streets. If I run out poorly, I can dump and never sweat it. If he runs out poorly, and I run out poorly, he's going to know much less than I am, and he's going to get wrecked again. So, KK2 in the BB sucks. But, I don't think flipping ducks, because they are the lowest and least dynamic cards in the deck, is ever going to be right, especially because as the SB I am going to think, "The duece is the best card he can flip...?" I think that's too telling a story. However, flipping a K is a little more dynamic, because that hand has a lot of blocking potential, repping potential, and potential for diamonds to run in our favor, without our opp being able to always read our hand as a 1 pair hand. And that is going to be incredibly important in a big bet game going into the river where almost all the pots are going to be really big relative to stacks. Again, flipping the highest cards in the BB when you can throw cards closer to the mean of all you can possibly get is not what I think is best right now, only because they are going to be a little less dynamic, much harder to come by, and much more difficult to win big pots with, without running out hot.

 

As result, when our hands force us into a polarized flip on the first, I think we always have to try to flip on the high side and hope our opponent is in the right part of his range so that we can find ways to win small and lose smaller, because in the event, our opponent isn't in the desired part of his range, at least we have more of a fighting chance to out play him later, without playing face up as often as possible. I think we can do this by trying our best to flip cards as close to our first card as possible as often as possible. This is going to allow us to always rep way more combinations of winning hands to losing hands, no matter what our opponents are flipping. This means that balancing is also going to become much, much easier. To me, this is going to be super key in diamonds.

[navybuttons 15]

let's start here:

 

If someone were to drop a deuce on me, I am always going to play speeding cop with evil knievel in the drivers seat. Because, a duece is putting yourself into a super polarized range for the rest of the hand. It's the least versatile card to flip with little potential to win big pots.

 

Let's say I'm the the BB with 1) KK2 or 2) 892sss and I always flip the duece, and whenever I do you jam harder than you otherwise would and your contention is that I don't have the potential to win big pots?

 

Also, remember we want a super polarized range.

[MinhLyFan 1]

Sorry, I think you misunderstood me. Against a polarized range here I am going to still be gassing it off the line, only smaller on early streets. For instance, against a really polarized card, I am going to prolly min raise if I can play, instead of standard potting when I am a card up vs a balanced range and have the button. The idea is that I am going to still be playing my hand agressivley, just not as aggressively as I would against a balanced range, but I am also going to put myself in a situation to play really big on later streets when the BBs hands are face up after the diamonds and mine are versatile.

[navybuttons 15]

Give me a list of your top 5 categories of hands in the BB in rank order. Exclude hands with an ace.

 

p.s. when i flip a deuce in the BB i think it's pretty much guaranteed that I'm going to rake for at least 5 bets on 1st.

[MinhLyFan 1]

KKK Rolled up XXX

KKxss Big pairs

KQJsss Three suited broadways

89Tsss Three suited middles

55Xss where X is suited connector or broadway

345sss suited wheels

 

And I think when you flip a duece, I min raise and always just call.

[navybuttons 15]

And here come the diamonds:

 

what does a good 2-card-up 2-card-down combo look like?

 

Oh, those diamonds?

[MinhLyFan 1]

Obviously it depends on your opponents upcards, but universally I think hands that are two broadway up two broadway down w suits are super sick. Any rundowns w the lowest card being 8 w suits are prolly going to be the best. I like you're thinking that pairing your up card is an ugly spot. And flipping ducks as long as they're balanced are interesting early, but on the later streets, I can't think of too many situations that are easy to play against a. Stud.

[CobaltBlue 662]

Just so you guys are aware, I really appreciate you two.

[navybuttons 15]

This means that balancing is also going to become much, much easier. To me, this is going to be super key in diamonds.

 

Let's discuss what balance is. Typically balance refers to playing hands similarly every time so that we become indifferent to our opponents strategy.

 

In games with smaller magnitude it's easier to play balanced always playing one hand one way.

 

 

And flipping ducks as long as they're balanced are interesting early, but on the later streets, I can't think of too many situations that are easy to play against

 

In diamonds it's impossible to play hands identically so that we become indifferent to our opponents strategy. Basically, we have to use mixed strategies and determine optimal ratios in order to become indifferent to our opponents strategy.

 

Flipping the 2 on 1st with KK2 has lower confidence then flipping a K. But I can say with relative certainty that flipping the 2 on 1st at least 1% of the time has a higher confidence than always flipping a K.

 

Which, just to reiterate, means that if I flip a 2 with KK2 1/100 times and you always flip a K, I'm winning a lot a lot of money off you all other strategies being equal.

[navybuttons 15]

Just so you guys are aware, I really appreciate you two.

 

Just so you are aware, I really appreciate you.

[navybuttons 15]

Double cheeseburger today.

 

1) "drafting." How your bluffs relate to your made hands. Bluffs that have lots of combinations can't drive as fast behind made hands and they're easier to spot. Bluffs that have few combinations will be able bet large when they hit. This concept is much much much easier to relate in hold em than in diamonds. floating with runner runner straight possibility is way way better than a pure float.

 

2) "skooping." The better your senses for your opponent's hand the less enticing his or her medium strength hands and draws become and the more enticing his or her strong hands and draws and weak hands and draws become.

[MinhLyFan 1]

So imma talk about balance, cause your double cheese kinda has similar sauce on it.

 

One of the more commonly misunderstood things about balance is this: balance is not only about having balanced action ranges. Balance is about balancing action ranges in an effective way against your opponents range using your range's equity vs that range to create strategies that are unexploitable.

 

And the less balanced your opponent is playing in this way is what makes him so easy to play against. This is because these imbalances are exploitable weaknesses that you can take advantage of, as long as you are making balanced shifts in your ranges to exploit the weaknesses. This doesn't mean that your overall game is going to be balanced, only balanced vs his ranges so that you're exploiting as much as possible.

[MinhLyFan 1]

So flipping a 2 in a vacuum, may be dope. But how is it going to distort the rest of your ranges?

[navybuttons 15]

So flipping a 2 in a vacuum, may be dope. But how is it going to distort the rest of your ranges?

 

I was just driving thinking about this exact same thing and got home and read this.

 

"confidence shift" as you adopt one strategy that has a higher confidence than another it oftentimes only has a higher confidence if another play is adopted or shifted.

 

lets say that every time BB is given 1 of 2 hands, either KK2 or 982. flipping the 2 with KK2 1% of the time only has a higher confidence if we flip the 2 some percentage of the time with 982.

 

Lets say you have 58J in the SB. I flip a 7 in the BB. how often do you flip each?

[MinhLyFan 1]

I think it's 8 a huge portion of the time. Then, a jack like 10% and the 5 5%. I think there are going to be many more profitable reasons to be flipping the eight all the time than either the other two. However, there are going to be a lot of situations where we just are not going to have a choice as to which cards we have to flip. And sometimes, those cards are going to be jacks and fives, we do have to recognize that there are some situations where we have to do it for balance. However, I am not sure if this hand is ever going to be that hand. I think a lot of flips are going to be semi bluffs, so when we have to flip a five or jack, we should be doing it with some equity. In this hand, if we flip a five, I feel like we are giving up too much, because our hand, like the five indicates, sucks. Even though I know we have to play some hands that look like they suck, and will fold under some fire, why not do it with 5,4,2 ss. or something?

[navybuttons 15]

why the J so few times in relation to the 8?

[MinhLyFan 1]

I want to be flipping marginally better than my opponent on average, while also throwing as close to the mean of cards I am going to possibly get in my starting hands, 8.