Unclechewy95 0 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I'm sure there was probably a thread about this somewhere, but I did a quick search and was not able to find anything, so I'll put it out there again. I have been playing recreationally for about 10 years and have been a winning player in live games and tournaments, but have not faired so well online. I have my own theories as to why that is, but that's a topic for another thread. The last couple of years have been rough for me in regards to employment, been layed off twice and am now working a job that I absolutely hate. I have scaled down my living expenses to a point where I feel now may be the time to take the leap and give poker full time a go. I have saved up some money for this, but to be safe and make sure I have several months worth of bills in reserve, I only have about a $2500 bankroll to play with. I only need to make about $2000 per month to cover my bills. Can I realistically earn that much monthly and if so, what game/limits should I look to play. I really prefer to play NL, but not sure this bankroll is enough. I know there are many factors to consider, but lets assume I am a decent player and will see an average win rate. I look forward to your responses. Link to post Share on other sites
TrueAce13 18 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Don't take this the wrong way, but if you couldn't beat games online, you probably are nowhere near good enough to play full-time. Try to improve your game, play when you have time and continue to build a bankroll. Trying to start playing full-time, 12 buyins at 1/2 is just not the greatest idea. Link to post Share on other sites
Unclechewy95 0 Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 Thanks TrueAce. Maybe I should clarify, I am not a losing player online, just would rather play live and have been a much more profitable play in live ring and tournament. I am working to improve my online game. Link to post Share on other sites
FCP Bob 1,312 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Will help to know a bit more information. How many months of expenses do you have saved up ? Where do you live ? How close are the casinos to you ? Have you kept detailed records of your live play over the last couple years and what do they show in terms of hours played and hourly rate at the games that you intend to play ? How easy will it be to get back into a job if playing doesn't work out for you ? Is it possible to work part time so that you have some guaranteed income coming in ? Have you been playing a lot when not working the last couple months to get a feel for what the current games are like ? Link to post Share on other sites
Unclechewy95 0 Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 Great questions Bob, here are the answers. I have 4 months expenses saved up in addition to my small bankroll. I currently live in Denver, so about 45 minutes from the nearest casino, but my plan is to move to Vegas for this venture. My records are not as detailed as they should be and I have not had the opportuity to play live over the last year or so due to my work schedule. When i was playing live more frequently about 3 years ago I was playing 1-2 NL recreationally and was showing a win rate of about $28/hr over about 150 hours of play. I have also cashed in 28.5% of the tournaments I have played in. I know this is not a lot, but it is all I have records for. This also answers you last question in that I have not had a lot of live experience over the past couple of months to get a real feel for what the games are like. I have been playing quite a bit on line, with modest success, only about 3/100 BB win rate. Yes, I could easily get back into the work force if this does not work out and could work a part time job for guaranteed income if neccesary. I know doing this would be a gamble with such a small bankroll. Thanks again for your input. Link to post Share on other sites
TrueAce13 18 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 ya, this just sounds like a horrendous idea. Really like the idea of having a job for stable income and play serious recreational. That is a really small sample size to determine if you could start playing for a living. Link to post Share on other sites
Unclechewy95 0 Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 Thanks Ace, what sample size online and live would recommend to get an accurate long term win rate? Link to post Share on other sites
HighwayStar 8 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 If you need to ask then you aren't ready. Online, netting $2k a month off $2500 is possible but I wouldn't recommend it with no real prior experience. You may be profitable on an individual table but that's just one of many skills you need to master. You need to be able to multitable, game select, control tilt, put in a lot of hours whilst maintaining a high standard of play and much more. These things can take months or years to master. You can't just jump into doing a thing like this. Number of hands wise..100k gives a decent idea but in reality you need 500k+ to really know what your winrate is at a given limit. This can also change over time. No idea about live earning potential but I doubt it's possible to consistently earn an amount of money due to the small number of hands you can get in. Playing on the side with a job is a great idea. Maybe in 2 years you'll be fully equipped with the relevant skills. Link to post Share on other sites
TrueAce13 18 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 He wants to grind live phil! Link to post Share on other sites
FCP Bob 1,312 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 If Vegas is where you want to be I would suggest looking at job opportunities there first and if you can find something and Vegas is where you want to live then move there and play on the side when you aren't working. Playing poker when you have to win to pay the bills is not an easy life. Playing poker as a serious hobby to supplement your job can be great. Link to post Share on other sites
HighwayStar 8 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 He wants to grind live phil! He asked about online too! Link to post Share on other sites
DiamondDixie 12 Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 I can't even begin to tell you how stressful playing is when you have to make money at it. I didn't go "pro" on purpose, I lost my job and couldn't find another one. I was doing well online and early 2011 I was starting to do really well then Black Friday hit and it's been a major struggle. The game that you love and enjoy changes when you have to make a living at it. Don't get me wrong, I still love poker and I still enjoy playing but it's just not the same. I was no where good enough 2 years ago to try to play full time, I'm barely good enough now. Variance is awful and a 3 month downswing isn't uncommon so 4 months of expenses just won't cut it. As said before a $2500 BR is nowhere near enough for 200NL live or online. Online for a US player is not even an option now imo, you will be eaten alive in a month. The competition is beyond anything you've seen live or pre BF. Of course if NV gets their online sites up that may change for people living there but it'll be a minimum of 2 years before there will be anything you can make a living from I'd imagine. Follow Bob's advice and find at least a decent paying part time job in Vegas, that will take a lot of the pressure off. Link to post Share on other sites
Jam-Fly 8 Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Minimum amount of hours live needed to even begin to guesstimate a win rate would be 500. That's 500 hours in the one cash game. So 500 hours in Foxwoods 1-2 NLHE game, or 500 hours in the Venetians 10-20 O8 game etc. having 500 hours with a mix of different games, limits and casinos won't really give a true reflection. Based on what you've said, I might make a suggestion which might be a little bit against the consensus. You say you are working a job that you hate...what's the worst case scenario if you quit this job? Is it an entry level position or has it taken a lot of time and effort to get this job? Basically what I'm getting at is, if you quit your job, take a shot at going pro, and fail miserably, is your life situation altered that much? If the 'going pro' thing does go terribly, is it just a case of swallowing your pride, moving back home, and getting another job that you hate in order to pay the bills? If this is the scenario, the only thing you're risking is $2500 and some time. $2500 is no big deal in the grand scheme of things (it's not like it's $100k that you've spent your whole life accumulating) and what's the big deal if you're in a similar, or slightly worse situation 1 year from now? Of course, if it all goes well, you could be doing something you enjoy and making some money too. I've made a lot of assumptions, and maybe your life is completely different to what I've described, in which case, ignore my advice. For example, if you have a wife and kids and a mortgage, it would irresponsible to just take this shot. However, if you're a single guy, with no real commitments or people relying on you, and your current occupation is more of a 'job' than a 'career', I've heard of a lot crazier ideas than taking a shot like this. Link to post Share on other sites
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