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Several ways to look at it, but in every way you look at it elimating Abi was a mistake. With 5 left, since Abi has no chance to win at all, you have a 1 in 4 chance to win. Get rid of Abi, you remain 1 in 4. Get rid of someone else, you go to 1 in 3. Assuming all things equal with the other players which they aren't obviously.

 

A player like Abi, if people are at all thinking, should always be a lock to be the goat that makes the final 3. Boston Rob did that with Phillip. Clearly he didn't like him, but he brought him all the way to the end because he posed no threat. Abi is that player.

 

If Malcolm's goal was to win to eliminate Abi, it was a mistake. Since voting out Abi is a mistake, then winning to vote her out is a mistake. Had Malcolm chose to win the challenge to vote out Denise or Skupin by protecting Abi and giving her an idol... well that would have been genius.

 

See the thing is, at 4 he is in a MUST win situation. None of the other three will agree to take him to the finals because it's handing him a million dollars. If Denise wins immunity she will for sure vote him out. If the other two win, they will get rid of him too. He has no power down to 4 handed play.

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Do not let tanner use his RNG. It somehow "randomly" gives people without vowels really shitty picks.

**** me. Russell Swan is such a **** up. I hate that dude. I can not believe I got stuck with him.

COOKIES!     Great tribal council this week.

If Denise wins immunity she will for sure vote him out. If the other two win, they will get rid of him too.

 

Denise has been adamant that it's not the way she's playing. She went along with voting Carter out over Abi, but that doesn't alter her final four alliance. It made it easier for her alliance to make it to the final four. If Malcolm is right, that sitting next to Denise in the finals is his biggest challenge, he needs her out. Encouraging Skupin and Lisa to break an alliance (the final four alliance) isn't a good thing because it makes it easier for them to break their final three alliance. Also, if he knocks Denise out at five, he's left the temptation of Abi for Skupin and LIsa. If he has Denise, someone closer to his level of jury threat, there's less incentive to vote him out then and Denise is more likely to vote against Skupin or Lisa over Malcolm if she is in fact playing how she's saying she is.

 

He may also be thinking that if he idols out Skupin or Lisa, and goes to the finals with other one and Abi, Artis and Pete could vote for Abi (a reasonable thought, considering their alliance), the juror of Skupin or Lisa would vote for the other, and he may taint his image as being so ruthless that he turns other off, like Carter. So, against Skupin and Lisa, he may be able to secure three votes (from Pete, Artis, and Abi) that he may otherwise lose. If he holds onto Denise's vote and has Jeff's (who hates returnees and doesn't seem fond of Lisa), game over. Why rock the boat?

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I completely agree that unless Malcolm had specific plans for his immunity idol, he should not have won the challenge There was no upside to the actions he took. I think he actually has the smallest chance of winning at this point. He must win the final challenge or he will be voted out and even if he survives, he won't win. Skupin also seems to be a bit unliked by most of the jury and has almost 0 chance of winning.

 

On the other hand, I think the best odds for Lisa or Skupin at this point is to have 1 of them get voted out and hopefully cause a split in the votes among Malcolm and Denise while picking up all the votes from their former tribemates (Pete, Abi, RC, Artis, potentially also Penner and Carter as well as either Lisa or Skupin).

Obviously a lot depends on their final statements, and call me crazy, but I would guess this:

Malcolm, Denise, Lisa - Lisa wins

Malcolm, Denise, Skupin - Denise wins

Denise, Lisa, Skupin - Denise wins

Malcolm, Lisa, Skupin - Lisa wins

 

@realkidpoker, you still owe me a signed book from the wsop fantasy pool. Still time to get it here before Christmas. :-)

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oh Daniel posted... I was wondering why random people were posting here.

 

Gov... can we decide on the prizepool so we aren't arguing what it should be after the show is over. If Malcolm wins I will be probably biased in saying that 1st should get paid a lot more than 2nd. You should just decide what the prizepool is without taking advice from people so it is fair.

 

After last night... it is obvious that Lisa and Skupin aren't playing to win. Keeping a final 4 with Malcolm and Denise is horrible game play.

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Winning the immunity challenge and not doing anything with the hidden idol was for sure the worst play Malcolm has done so far. Makes absolutelly no sense. I get it, being a competitive guy and all it's hard to throw a challenge, but in this case he should have done it. Or win it and do something with the idol. I was actually very surprised Abi went home. I was sure Michael and Lisa are going to switch and vote Denise out. Is there a chance that Abi's rant on TC "You are an idiot.. a moron.. a moron is what you are" cost her a spot in final 4, possibly in final three? That should not affect one, but after being there for 35 days with this intolerable chick. You are sleep deprived, hungry and thirsty and your judgement might be clouded, so I think there is a chance they are not thinking 100% clear and are letting these kind of thinga affect their decisions.

 

It would be interesting to know how often people change their minds in TC, and vote for someone else they intended to. Or how often people actually go to TC without knowing who they are voting. I kind of feel that doesnt happen too often, as it would so often screw up the vote. But for sure there are times when things have changed in TC.

 

Abi must be one of the worst strategic player in a while. Not only one of the worst social player, but also close to zero strategy. Apart from being unpleasant in general her biggest mistake must have been not voting Pete when she had a chance and NOT play her idol. It was obvious others are not switching sides, and by giving Pete the fourth vote she could have held on the idol for one extra week, which might have been crucial since at 4 it's almost guaranteed that the least liked player makes the final 3. VERY often the best player is 4th, unless of course they win the challenge at 4 players. And then this talk about the 4th idol. Not too subtle. I bet none of them believe she has it for a second. And if she actually did have it, why would she go like "I think I'm using my immnunity idol next time.."?? I mean she would have to use it anyway, at 6 and 5 it would have been too big of a risk not to playi t. If she would have had it, not telling about it would have been the correct move every time. Then she could basically choose who goes home, if the others are not splitting the vote. I was a bit embarassed by how bad she tried to sell that story. I get it, she has to try something but at least be smart with it, be subtle about it and try to plant thought in peoples heads that she actually might have it. By announcing "I have the idol" and not showing is a guarantee she does not have it.

 

Some random thoughts about this seasons which I think has been a solid effort. Not the best of seasons, but not the worst either. Rooting for Malcolm or Skupin to take it down. Would be cool to see Malcolm take it, as he was in so dire situations at one point, being in a tribe of two and all. What is really amazing by the way is that both he and Denise have managed to stay there this long. Kind of thought they were dead after merge, but no.. A funny little game this is. Man would I love to play it one day.

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Ok so as mentioned top 2 get paid unless there is a tie for 2nd in which they would split it.

 

9 players x $25 = $225

 

1st Place: $150

2nd Place: $75

 

If a tie for 2nd then $37.50 each

 

Looking forward to tonight. I like Malcolm the most though this season really didn't have any standout players laast very long (I would have liked to have seen Kent gone deep).

 

GL!

 

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I'm still here. I just can't believe how often survivor ends with people saying 'that's not how I play the game'. I don't want to 'keep someone that doesn't deserve it'. Are these people crazy? Abi should have been the only person everyone wanted to keep. It's shocking how bad everyone is.

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It's funny how Lisa and Skupin talk about making the right play every week but they always end up going the opposite way. I think Lisa is a great underdog though and I hope she could win if she isn't in a final with Malcolm. I don't think Denise has done enough strategically and it seems like the jury thinks Skupin is an idiot.

 

 

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Tonight was the first time, maybe ever, that I've genuinely liked all three of the final three contestants, and didn't care who won.

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Tonight was the first time, maybe ever, that I've genuinely liked all three of the final three contestants, and didn't care who won.

 

Congrats :)

 

I liked all final contestants as well though I think most players this year including all 3 finalists were forgettable. Two years from now I won't remember nor care who won. If they brought back exile island we could maybe see more strategic plays and want to care more about the players but at this point most "strategies" are really just keep in the know and stay on everyones good side. When nobody makes bold plays to turn on their tight alliances it makes for a drama-less season.

 

Another fans vs favourites coming up, not sure what I'll take from that. I really can't take another season of Russell (The evil one who also doesn't have what it takes to flip houses).

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When should we expect the money to be transferred? I am assuming it's going back to our Paypal account?

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