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Like I said I'd prefer leading flop-then checking but I don't think the check is horrible..I think it's close. My point is that it's redundant to repeat that your c r looks like your commiting when your entire plan is to fold...You also keep asserting that villain is so aggressive that he's going to double barrel us for more then half his stack with draws etc yet is going to to flat your c r and be passive the rest of the way-this is conflicting.Your using the info of what the turn card is to help justify the c r but that's info we don't have when we c r...our c r should be representing a hand much stronger then what we have ie turning or hand into a bluff and when we do turn a card which gives us solid reasons to continue our story you want to check in hopes he checks behind so when we do hit our back door draw we can value bet hands like aj etc..but again you say he's only ever got draws or aj etc when calling the c r so we then allow him to see the river with his draws-which according to you he never puts another chip in-so he doesn't bluff missed draws on the river-and then again you say how super strong our hand looks simply with the c r that not a chip goes in again but now you think you can value bet when our back door gets there vs his aj??Round and round we go..
If we c/r, there's a much smaller chance we'll have to fold the turn, so no, my "entire plan" is not to fold the turn.I'm not asserting the villain is so aggressive, I'm just asserting he has some idea of what he is doing. When in position, players have all sorts of tools at their disposal to win hands and by c/c and checking we leave it open for him to use all of them. By c/r we eliminate some of his options. Just imagine it from his position. I have been told by lots of you that if you held AJ/AQ, on this turn then you would bet it quite often after the c/r. I don't think I would, but surely you see you are much less likely to bet it after the c/r than after the c/c... unless you're suicidal, from a poker standpoint.I didn't say our hand look super strong at any point really (we're min-raising after all), it just looks stronger with the c/r than the c/c. And more importantyl, it looks like we have committed to the pot. Even if we were on some sort of draw and our villiain felt he had us beat, he would have to risk the rest of his tournament chips to find out for sure and hope not to get sucked out on. Don't you see that is the exact situation I'm hoping to avoid for us. We're going round and round because you guys refuse to understand that this hand shouldn't be played in exactly the same way at this point as it can be earlier in the tournament. Earlier, you can play it as weak as you want, not wanting to mix it up. You can try to turn the tables and semi-bluff the turn. You can do all sorts of things. In this hand, you can quickly become commited to going to the end and be in a very bad situation. You have said that you would call after c/c if the villain bet about 6K since this gave you pot odds to call. Ok, that might be true, however, now you've put in more chip this way that I do my way. Why is it better? And what if he bets 8K or 10K? Certainly you're no more sure where you stand than if he bet 6K... or 4K? Maybe you think you have some implied odds and decide to chase that 1 in 4 chance. So basically, you're deciding you're going to have to get lucky no matter how much you call. Most of these calls would be a mistake, not only because the odds are bordeline, but because if you happen to lose, now you're crippled (at best). If you're wiling to take those kinds of chances, then your better play would have been to be all in pre-flop, where you can reasonably assume you likely have a coin flip, and are a 3-1 dog at worst. But, now that we are seeing a flop, I'm trying to find out the best way to accomplish my goals of never folding the best hand on the turn, or getting caught commiting too many chips to a pot I am destined to lose.
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It's fairly established that the two reasons to raise are:1: to extract value from weaker hands2: to bluff out better handsYou say there is another reason:To get us to the river cheaper-a lot of this stance seems to be based on knowing what the turn isAlso your reasoning is essentially the first two reasons:Your raise extracts value from draws that call-however it prices them in making it an error.Your raise is representing a much stronger hand thus attempting to bluff the Aj hands yet you shut down the bluff on the turn making it an error.
Actually there's a third reason to bet... a defensive bet, which I think is how our c/r would be categorized. And, AGAIN, I don't think our c/r is necessarily representing a monster.
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If we c/r, there's a much smaller chance we'll have to fold the turn, so no, my "entire plan" is not to fold the turn.I'm not asserting the villain is so aggressive, I'm just asserting he has some idea of what he is doing. When in position, players have all sorts of tools at their disposal to win hands and by c/c and checking we leave it open for him to use all of them. By c/r we eliminate some of his options. Just imagine it from his position. I have been told by lots of you that if you held AJ/AQ, on this turn then you would bet it quite often after the c/r. I don't think I would, but surely you see you are much less likely to bet it after the c/r than after the c/c... unless you're suicidal, from a poker standpoint.I didn't say our hand look super strong at any point really (we're min-raising after all), it just looks stronger with the c/r than the c/c. And more importantyl, it looks like we have committed to the pot. Even if we were on some sort of draw and our villiain felt he had us beat, he would have to risk the rest of his tournament chips to find out for sure and hope not to get sucked out on. Don't you see that is the exact situation I'm hoping to avoid for us. We're going round and round because you guys refuse to understand that this hand shouldn't be played in exactly the same way at this point as it can be earlier in the tournament. Earlier, you can play it as weak as you want, not wanting to mix it up. You can try to turn the tables and semi-bluff the turn. You can do all sorts of things. In this hand, you can quickly become commited to going to the end and be in a very bad situation. You have said that you would call after c/c if the villain bet about 6K since this gave you pot odds to call. Ok, that might be true, however, now you've put in more chip this way that I do my way. Why is it better? And what if he bets 8K or 10K? Certainly you're no more sure where you stand than if he bet 6K... or 4K? Maybe you think you have some implied odds and decide to chase that 1 in 4 chance. So basically, you're deciding you're going to have to get lucky no matter how much you call. Most of these calls would be a mistake, not only because the odds are bordeline, but because if you happen to lose, now you're crippled (at best). If you're wiling to take those kinds of chances, then your better play would have been to be all in pre-flop, where you can reasonably assume you likely have a coin flip, and are a 3-1 dog at worst. But, now that we are seeing a flop, I'm trying to find out the best way to accomplish my goals of never folding the best hand on the turn, or getting caught commiting too many chips to a pot I am destined to lose.
A big part of your justification seems to be because you know what the turn is..yes during different stages of tourneys hands play differently. And yes in position villain has more tools but the point is its highly unlikely villain is bluffing/betting a draw here and commiting his stack especially if we've established villain likely puts us on an ace-this would be suicidal.Yes maybe villain is betting Aj etc on the turn but oh we'll we're behind and not getting odds to call..the assertion by his play is that he's got us beat when we decide on our flop play its without the knowledge of us turning a draw.::the fact that we do turn a draw makes the hand interesting but doesn't mean we can rewind and play the flop again with the knowledge of the turn: I've got a similar hand in a database:Hero: 50kVillain: has me coveredBlinds 1000-2000Hero Ah9h opens 5000 in hi jack, villain calls from button, blinds fold.Flop: Ac 8d 5h (13000)Hero checks, villain bets 7500, hero ?I assume you still say check raise? As for how much I'm willing to call on the turn in the original hand it really comes down to math 6k, 8k I'm still getting the right price to call -plus smaller bets make it less likely he's as strong bc he's not pricing out draws etc
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Jam and pray?Kidding...Even from hijack, A9 is a risky open, imo. When there is a caller, caller's range is generally quite wide (any 2 Broadway, two connectors, most Ax, plenty of small pairs, all highly dependant on image), so putting him on specific holdings this early in the hand isn't realistic. For Irishguy's hand, I'd conmsider calling vs folding to be almost equal. Small villain bets give you good odds, sure, but they are just as often suck or value bets. Villian, if he's adventurous, might even have called with 97 or 64.A C/R with top pair and a less than stellar kicker has been the downfall of many who fail to attribute villain with a better kicker or two pair or a range of combo draws.

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Irishguy,You said “A big part of your justification seems to be because you know what the turn is..yes during different stages of tourneys hands play differently. And yes in position villain has more tools but the point is its highly unlikely villain is bluffing/betting a draw here and commiting his stack especially if we've established villain likely puts us on an ace-this would be suicidal.”Actually, with my strategy I don’t care what the turn is, and as long as it doesn’t hit out opponent with some random two pair or straight or flush, I feel we are likely to get a check behind. And if the villain does hit a straight or a flush, they will often slow play it and check behind. The idea is, we don’t put any more chips into the pot unless we know we’re in pretty good shape… unlike what occurred in this real hand… unlike what you are basically doing by calling a turn bet, even if the pot odds say you should. And at no point did I say villain is putting us on an A.. He is putting us on a mediocre hand, whether that is a weak A or something else. Frankly, since just about everyone advocates folding our hand to a reasonable bet on the turn (let’s ignore the flush draw we picked up for the moment), then I don’t see how you think it would be suicidal for our opponent to bet the turn if he did think we had exactly what we have.And by the way, let’s say a club does hit the turn. Doesn’t this present a perfect opportunity for our opponent to bluff in response to our check? Or maybe they have mediocre holdings with a big club and decide to continue to lead after our two checks. Now, if we had c/r, then I think it makes is MUCH less likely they would bluff the turn if a club hit because we look like we have committed ourselves to the pot. They are much more likely to play the “let’s see what happens on the river” game which is exactly what we want with our mediocre hand.You said “Yes maybe villain is betting Aj etc on the turn but oh we'll we're behind and not getting odds to call..the assertion by his play is that he's got us beat when we decide on our flop play its without the knowledge of us turning a draw.::the fact that we do turn a draw makes the hand interesting but doesn't mean we can rewind and play the flop again with the knowledge of the turn:”Yes, if he has AJ/AQ we are behind and calling would certainly not be a good idea in general, even if the pot odds indicate we should. However, look at how great that turn card was as far as our chances of improving. We went from 3 outs against AJ/AQ to 12 outs. We basically quadrupled our chance of winning the hand. Wouldn’t it be nice to see that river for free?Now if we don’t turn the draw, then little has changed except for our chances of winning the hand. The villain will still check behind the majority of the time.Throughout this whole debate, I’m willing to accept that c/c and “seeing what happens” is a reasonable, if not preferred line of play at other points in the tournament. However in this situation, I really have a hard time getting over the fact that you guys are willing to call 4K in a spot where we you will almost always have to fold on the turn. Our hand has almost no chance of improving on the turn, and even if we catch that miracle 10 (the only card that maybe makes us happy), it completes several straights and perhaps a flush. I would say there is no card that can hit the turn that makes us willing to call a reasonable bet. In this case we would have to lead out and hope our opponent is fairly weak, or we just have to kiss our 4K goodbye. Why is this such a great line of play? How is this more conservative from a chip standpoint than c/r the flop... establishing once and for all whether our opponent has a monster or not, making it more likely we don’t have to put in any more money into the pot in a really marginal situation, and giving us a better chance to see the river and improve?

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Jam and pray?Kidding...Even from hijack, A9 is a risky open, imo. When there is a caller, caller's range is generally quite wide (any 2 Broadway, two connectors, most Ax, plenty of small pairs, all highly dependant on image), so putting him on specific holdings this early in the hand isn't realistic. For Irishguy's hand, I'd conmsider calling vs folding to be almost equal. Small villain bets give you good odds, sure, but they are just as often suck or value bets. Villian, if he's adventurous, might even have called with 97 or 64.A C/R with top pair and a less than stellar kicker has been the downfall of many who fail to attribute villain with a better kicker or two pair or a range of combo draws.
mercury, you highlight the difficulty in playing this type of hand the way our orignal poster did. I think it would have made much more sense to go all-in pre flop to try and steal than to make a standard raise and risk having to play poker with such a mediocre hand. If you don't hit the flushy flop, you could be in a world of hurt and you open yourself up to make really hard decisions that could easily end your tournament when it didn't have to end.as far as calling vs folding.. as I have mentioned in the analysis of the other hand, I think folding makes as much if not more sense than calling. Our lack of position puts us in a really tough spot and we have no real hope of improving on the turn... so what are we calling the flop bet for for?
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I've got a similar hand in a database:Hero: 50kVillain: has me coveredBlinds 1000-2000Hero Ah9h opens 5000 in hi jack, villain calls from button, blinds fold.Flop: Ac 8d 5h (13000)Hero checks, villain bets 7500, hero ?I assume you still say check raise?As for how much I'm willing to call on the turn in the original hand it really comes down to math 6k, 8k I'm still getting the right price to call -plus smaller bets make it less likely he's as strong bc he's not pricing out draws etc
If its at a late stage in the tournament I will decide based on these criteria... Is my opponent solid or is he bad/crazy.If solid, and if want to really try and win the hand.. then I c/r. if I don't feel that into it, I c/f. c/c would be my third most likely option.If the opponent is bad/crazy I guess I am more likely to c/c becasue I can't take for granted that they will give any thought to my stack size or what I might have in my hand. However in this scenrio, I am in just as much perile of putting all my chips in in a bad or at best mediocre position, so c/f continues to have merit. Our lack of posiiton in this hand is really the limiting factor.Throughout this thread I think we have managed to highlight all sorts of bad things that can happen if we check the flop, no matter what we do next (fold, call, raise). I think this might be good evidence that continuing or lead on the flop is probably a better play. If the opponent calls, we can slow down on the turn or maybe fire a second bullet. If they shove the flop, then we can fold having lost only our lead bet.
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Irishguy,You said “A big part of your justification seems to be because you know what the turn is..yes during different stages of tourneys hands play differently. And yes in position villain has more tools but the point is its highly unlikely villain is bluffing/betting a draw here and commiting his stack especially if we've established villain likely puts us on an ace-this would be suicidal.”Actually, with my strategy I don’t care what the turn is, and as long as it doesn’t hit out opponent with some random two pair or straight or flush, I feel we are likely to get a check behind. And if the villain does hit a straight or a flush, they will often slow play it and check behind. The idea is, we don’t put any more chips into the pot unless we know we’re in pretty good shape… unlike what occurred in this real hand… unlike what you are basically doing by calling a turn bet, even if the pot odds say you should. And at no point did I say villain is putting us on an A.. He is putting us on a mediocre hand, whether that is a weak A or something else. Frankly, since just about everyone advocates folding our hand to a reasonable bet on the turn (let’s ignore the flush draw we picked up for the moment), then I don’t see how you think it would be suicidal for our opponent to bet the turn if he did think we had exactly what we have.And by the way, let’s say a club does hit the turn. Doesn’t this present a perfect opportunity for our opponent to bluff in response to our check? Or maybe they have mediocre holdings with a big club and decide to continue to lead after our two checks. Now, if we had c/r, then I think it makes is MUCH less likely they would bluff the turn if a club hit because we look like we have committed ourselves to the pot. They are much more likely to play the “let’s see what happens on the river” game which is exactly what we want with our mediocre hand.You said “Yes maybe villain is betting Aj etc on the turn but oh we'll we're behind and not getting odds to call..the assertion by his play is that he's got us beat when we decide on our flop play its without the knowledge of us turning a draw.::the fact that we do turn a draw makes the hand interesting but doesn't mean we can rewind and play the flop again with the knowledge of the turn:”Yes, if he has AJ/AQ we are behind and calling would certainly not be a good idea in general, even if the pot odds indicate we should. However, look at how great that turn card was as far as our chances of improving. We went from 3 outs against AJ/AQ to 12 outs. We basically quadrupled our chance of winning the hand. Wouldn’t it be nice to see that river for free?Now if we don’t turn the draw, then little has changed except for our chances of winning the hand. The villain will still check behind the majority of the time.Throughout this whole debate, I’m willing to accept that c/c and “seeing what happens” is a reasonable, if not preferred line of play at other points in the tournament. However in this situation, I really have a hard time getting over the fact that you guys are willing to call 4K in a spot where we you will almost always have to fold on the turn. Our hand has almost no chance of improving on the turn, and even if we catch that miracle 10 (the only card that maybe makes us happy), it completes several straights and perhaps a flush. I would say there is no card that can hit the turn that makes us willing to call a reasonable bet. In this case we would have to lead out and hope our opponent is fairly weak, or we just have to kiss our 4K goodbye. Why is this such a great line of play? How is this more conservative from a chip standpoint than c/r the flop... establishing once and for all whether our opponent has a monster or not, making it more likely we don’t have to put in any more money into the pot in a really marginal situation, and giving us a better chance to see the river and improve?
This is the point that's just so off: to say the c c c line is better earlier and bad now is completely contingent on the likelihood that villain bluffs this turn committing his stack-the continued opinion is that it's just not likely..and if you believe that there's a huge likelihood of the turn bluff by c c c you should be advocating calling the turn...You say c r gets us to the river more often-but if he calls we are beat or he has a draw we price him in but either way he's never betting unless he improves-which brings us back to a whole world of issues:1: we price in draws2: we don't raise enough or continue on with our story to fold out better hands3: villian is aggressive enough to double barrel comitt himself in our line but so passive that he never bets turn in yours or never value bets or bluffs river after being checked to twice...completely conflicting thoughts
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If its at a late stage in the tournament I will decide based on these criteria... Is my opponent solid or is he bad/crazy.If solid, and if want to really try and win the hand.. then I c/r. if I don't feel that into it, I c/f. c/c would be my third most likely option.If the opponent is bad/crazy I guess I am more likely to c/c becasue I can't take for granted that they will give any thought to my stack size or what I might have in my hand. However in this scenrio, I am in just as much perile of putting all my chips in in a bad or at best mediocre position, so c/f continues to have merit. Our lack of posiiton in this hand is really the limiting factor.Throughout this thread I think we have managed to highlight all sorts of bad things that can happen if we check the flop, no matter what we do next (fold, call, raise). I think this might be good evidence that continuing or lead on the flop is probably a better play. If the opponent calls, we can slow down on the turn or maybe fire a second bullet. If they shove the flop, then we can fold having lost only our lead bet.
On top of what donk said you just don't think villain is betting like the hugest portion of his range when checked to on the flop? And then we run into the exact same scenario of raising and folding out every hand that we beat and putting more money in the pot for hands that are ahead of us...
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We only have top pair w/ a decent kicker, We shouldn't mind turning our top pair into a bluff
yes, you keep lamenting that. No one ever busts out of tournaments with top pair, 10 kicker. Its practically the nuts.
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On top of what donk said you just don't think villain is betting like the hugest portion of his range when checked to on the flop? And then we run into the exact same scenario of raising and folding out every hand that we beat and putting more money in the pot for hands that are ahead of us...
I'm not sure what you're talking about or what you're referring to. I would agree that the opponent is likely to bet pretty much anything on the flop after we have forfeited the lead in the hand.
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LOL if he's solid you want to c/r that flop? really? C/ring that flop against a spewtard is much better than doing it against someone solid
thanks for providing some in-depth analysis.
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I'm not sure what you're talking about or what you're referring to. I would agree that the opponent is likely to bet pretty much anything on the flop after we have forfeited the lead in the hand.
So we c r and fold out the hands we beat and put more money in the pot for the hands that beat us. . .
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This is the point that's just so off: to say the c c c line is better earlier and bad now is completely contingent on the likelihood that villain bluffs this turn committing his stack-the continued opinion is that it's just not likely..and if you believe that there's a huge likelihood of the turn bluff by c c c you should be advocating calling the turn...You say c r gets us to the river more often-but if he calls we are beat or he has a draw we price him in but either way he's never betting unless he improves-which brings us back to a whole world of issues:1: we price in draws2: we don't raise enough or continue on with our story to fold out better hands3: villian is aggressive enough to double barrel comitt himself in our line but so passive that he never bets turn in yours or never value bets or bluffs river after being checked to twice...completely conflicting thoughts
I Only say c/c/c is better earlier because the mistakes we make as a result of playing this hand so weakly and having little idea where we stand are less detrimental to our survival earlier, as opposed to this late tournament situaiton. Its not because playing the "let's see what happens" game is fundamentally a better strategy.And I am not advocating that there is HUGE chance that the villain will bluff the turn if we c/c. I am advocating that there is SOME chance he will do so. I am also advocating that he is likely to continue to bet with marginal hands that have us beat and/or draws. All of these things will result in us folding and having a 0% chance of winning the hand. My c/r minimized the chances of all of these things, giving us a chance to win the hand by catching up, or perhaps having the best hand.There's a fundamental issue you guys keep overlooking. We are mediocre. If we were strong, we could protect our hand by raising all in, or doing other things agressively. But there are too many hands that have us dominated. Unless you're suicidal, there's no way you can play the hand as if you're good on the flop, trying to fold out draws. So, in addition to the fact that many players are happy to get it in with big draws at this point in the tournamen, I don't see any way we are going to be able to get our opponent off a draw. So, the hand is likely gong to the river, with or without us. I prefer it to be with us particualryl if we have invested any chips on the flop."3: villian is aggressive enough to double barrel comitt himself in our line but so passive that he never bets turn in yours or never value bets or bluffs river after being checked to twice...completely conflicting thoughts"These are not conlficting thoughts because our relative stack sizes and the size of the pot are different in each case. Good players do not bluff when they believe it is less likely for their opponent to fold. Good players do not make thin value bets on the river for most of their remaining chips when only a better hand will call.
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;lsadjfl;kasdfj; I WAS AGREEING W/ YOU!
Forgive me if I didn't expect that. Ok, sorry.. what' you're point? Are you now advocating the c/r strategy? You seemed to complain about us turnng top air into a bluff (thought I don't really think that what we're really accomplishing here) in earlier posts.
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So we c r and fold out the hands we beat and put more money in the pot for the hands that beat us. . .
I don't mind folding out hands we beat becasue.. we may not be beating them by the river and are not likely to act aggressively on future streets to prevent that. What is wrong with winning a small pot with a mediocre hand? Isn't that the goal in small-ball?Yes, we are putting more money in.. but very little (only 4K more). Compare that you calling 6K on the turn to try and catch your flush. Or compare that to the ~20K or so our hero put in by making a mistake. My argument all along is the 4K extra is viritually irrelevant from a chip stack size point of view and is worth it because it makes it more likely we will win the hand. I gotta say you guys keep ignoring the point I make about the worthiness of the original 4K call in you c/c play. Unless we catch a miriacle 10 on the turn (still could be bad), or our opponent is indeed really weak.passive, I see amost no chance for us winning this hand by calling the flop. Our flat on the flop just gives them too many opportunities to bet, either for value, or as a bluff, or as a semi-bluff on the turn, and we have agreed that we are folding to most bets or making a pretty risky call. Calling with little hope of improving and with the full intention of folding to a bet from a player in position doesn't seem like a +EV play to me.
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I Only say c/c/c is better earlier becasue the mistakes we make as a result of playing this hand so weakly and having little idea where we stand are less determinetal to our survival earlier, as opposed to this late tournament situaiton. Its not because playing the "let's see what happens" game is fundamentally a better strategy.And I am not advocating that there is HUGE chance that the villain will bluff the turn if we c/c. I am advocating that there is SOME chance he will do so. I am also advocating that he is likely to continue to bet with marginal hands that have us beat and/or draws. All of these things will result in us folding and having a 0% chance of winning the hand. My c/r minimized the chances of all of these things, giving us a chance to win the hand by catching up, or perhaps having the best hand.There's a fundamental issue you guys keep overlooking. We are mediocre. If we were strong, we could protect our hand by raising all in, or doing other things agressively. But there are too many hands that have us dominated. Unless you're suicidal, there's no way you can play the hand as if you're good on the flop, trying to fold out draws. So, in addition to the fact that many players are happy to get it in with big draws at this point in the tournamen, I don't see any way we are going to be able to get our opponent off a draw. So, the hand is likely gong to the river, with or without us. I prefer it to be with us particualryl if we have invested any chips on the flop."3: villian is aggressive enough to double barrel comitt himself in our line but so passive that he never bets turn in yours or never value bets or bluffs river after being checked to twice...completely conflicting thoughts"These are not conlficting thoughts because our relative stack sizes and the size of the pot are different in each case. Good players do not bluff when they believe it is less likely for their opponent to fold. Good players do not make thin value bets on the river for most of their remaining chips when only a better hand will call.
When I say the likelihood of him bluffing the turn for more then hf his stack this includes betting draws ie: semi bluffing as played the consensus seems to be it's just not likely You say c r gets us to the river more:1) giving us the chance to win vs draws that don't get there-this is hugely -ev considering we've priced the draws in..2:) giving us the chance to catch up if we are behind-so we raise with our thought process being well if he calls we can go runner runner but then you've stated those times that we do catch up that villain wont put another chip in he pot...The whole notion that we are mediocre if we are strong we could shove all in to "protect our hand/fold out draws" is just so flawed...we DON'T WANT to fold out draws. In fact if we think that a large part of villains shoving range is combo draws, flush draws, straight draws we should only be c r with the intent of snapping of the shove...again that crazy thing called math
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