lederer's take on heads up w/ daniel:

[ArseneLupin3 0]

deadpan works very well when TYPED sw

Sometimes I have to shake my head no when I'm being sarcastic with my friends. Otherwise, they'd still think I had sex with that goat.-adam

[ArseneLupin3 0]

food for thought:"I am certainly not insulted to be compared to Daniel. It seems to me thatyou are accusing Daniel of being younger than me. If you were to compareour careers at Daniel's age, it might be Daniel who would be insulted.I don't see how Daniel has been surviving through the media. As far as Iknow, there are no high paying media positions in poker. But, I cannot findanything wrong with Daniel's strategy of positioning himself as a pokerambassador. There could be a media explosion in the coming years. "-howard lederer, rgp, 2002

[ArseneLupin3 0]

Maybe reasons why some of the many 'name' pros have not given Daniel action in the $500,000 heads-up matches has more to do with factors other than who thinks they have an edge over the other. Ex.) Let's speculate that Phil Ivey is a 75% favorite to 1.5 BB/hour at the 4k/8k level, but only a 52% favorite over Daniel in a $500,000 heads-up match - where is his time more well spent? What is Daniel's own desire to play $500,000 heads-up matches where his competitor gets to name the game, is he getting backed by the Wynn poker room to balance the competitor's slim edge? What is Daniel getting from the publicity of a heads-up match for half a mill between two big name poker pros at the Wynn? Heads-up matches are high variance and $500,000 is a lot of money to anyone. Someone do some EV calculations there...

Yeah.. This is apparently the same reason that sklansky is a 'pussy' to some posters. He co-runs a small publishing company and people knock him for not having the desire to play a 6 figure coinflip.And as another point to address those that think howard might be a little timid about the match, don't forget that this is the guy that's played $300k golf matches for the hell of it. The more thinking I do, the more I believe that Howard's explanation is the straight-up truth.And frank, can you really be a 75% favorite to win 1.5bb/h in that cash game? I'm not poking holes in your EV comparison, but aren't you complicating matters by adding a percentage to his hourly rate? Can't we just assume a more realistic rate and achieve the same result?To answer your question, Daniel is clearly getting the best of this situation at even money. He has invested a great deal of time endorsing products and, should these events eventually get any press or get televised (as if this hasn't been discussed by the board at the Wynn) he will make a mint in residuals. Apparently, the matches have already been written up in a few papers. Come WSOP time, I guarantee there will be some more about the DN vs BG match for $4.5mil. This is all in addition to his salary, of course. I'd like to take a peek at that contract, for one.. He's pretty much the biggest benificiary of any publicity that goes on, as well. It's his game. Even if he's a dog, he learns a lot about several strong opponents, brings people to the room, and enjoys the hell out of being at the center biggest game in town on any particular night. Never underestimate the value of fun in your EV calculations.Note the quote from howard in one of my last posts. That should tell you a lot. Dan has been working at this for quite some time--not just the Wynn situation, but being one of the most prominent figures in poker's PR arsenal. He has, arguably, more clout than any other player right now. When it seems like I'm anti-DN in my posts, it's only because I see hints of things that worry me. Poker's fanbase is so vast that things taken out of context can easily get ugly.. fast. As someone who's been working at being poker's ambassador to the public for 3 years now, Daniel has said a few things here or there that a lot of people have found a little silly or inappropriate. Why ruin an image that took so long to create?-adam, who also feel that a lot of the discussions of the big game maximum achievable rate have avoided the inclusion of pot-limit to the mix.

[iveyfan30 0]

deadpan works very well when TYPED sw

Sometimes I have to shake my head no when I'm being sarcastic with my friends. Otherwise, they'd still think I had sex with that goat.-adam

ummm ok <slowly creeping away>

[ArseneLupin3 0]

Case A: Ivey, headsup with Dan100 runs, 8 hours each55 wins: 27,500,00045 losses: 22,500,000Net: $5mRate: 6250 an hour, or $1250/hr per percentage point of edge over 50.Case B:At 4000/8000, 1bb/hr. $8000/hr.He'd need to make 0.8bb/hr to be even with the 55-45 favorite scenario.Assuming a more accepted rate of 4000/hr at the big game for Phil and being a 55-45 favorite, his difference in expectation would only be $2250/hr. Relative to the amounts being wagered, this isn't too much [1/2 of a small bet in the big game, 1.5% edge in the HU match].Further considerations: phil can't play dan 100 times. the big game doesn't always run.Most importantly, the variance in the sngs will be profoundly higher. If you haven't figured out why some people feel this sucks a lot of the value out of the proposition, consider this:You-------Bankroll: $100,000Liquid capital: $0I stake a blind, deaf monkey to play you HU for $100k. The monkey is a 35-65 dog. If you lose, you will be unable to continue playing. A lot of people forget about this important question: What is the value of maintaining my bankroll? In extreme situations such as this, you have to consider even these bizarre details.-adam

[Random Fluke 0]

There is also a reason he doesn't play higher than that. He can't beat the other pro's even at his own game, much less any other game spread at that limit.

That's completely false. Howard is one of the best limit hold 'em players on the planet. He is somewhat out of practice at the moment since he hasn't been playing a lot of cash games, but even so I'd say a limit hold em game between he and Daniel would be 50/50.Quote from Greenstein's Website:"During one of Andy Beal’s head-up matches against our coalition of players, Howard and I each lost $2,000,000 to Andy. The coalition won for the trip, but Howard was very disappointed by his result. I was content to sit out future matches, but Howard wanted to prove that he had been the victim of a bad run of cards. The next three times Andy came to town, Howard got his revenge, winning convincingly each time."

[JaysonWeber 0]

How exactly is it 'easy' to tell when one pro is better than another? WSOP finishes? Other large-scale tourny finishes? Side-game performances? Other pro's opinions? Their own opinion?

Well it's easier with the Pro's than random people as I stated. because theres knowledge about them online. What did I look at? Where the players are at right now, What games they are best at (Based on poker websites, articles written and overall knowledge of them). Who cares about tournaments when it comes to cash games, especially HU.

More proof that it is very difficult to determine who is actually 'better' at one form of poker over the other, aside form their egos. More importantly, speculation on exactly why Howard does not play in the Big Game is too hard to determine - I would think many other factors excluding his play/performance at this level come into play.

Yes both feel they have an edge, that's just ego which is good in my opinion. But I will note that Daniel has admitted in 2 of these games he felt he was a slight dog in the long run... That's worth something.What other factors come into play when wondering why Lederer doesn't play in the big game? I have to base my thoughts on what I've seen written from other pro's and even Greenstein's website (the self acclaimed big winner of the big game). Lederer plays significantly better when not matched up against the best of the best, this is true for everyone, but more-so for him. Why is this? I think it's because of his approach to the game, he's very analytical. Does he bluff? Ofcourse. But I truly think that his style doesn't work as well against these "Big Time" Pros, It's that simple really... There certainly could be other reasons why he hasn't continued to pursue playing in this game, But in the past It hasn't worked out for him.Maybe it's because at heart Lederer doesn't have as much "gamble" as these guys... Who knows.

The Corporation is a group of players who play at the highest limits to date in poker. Performance at this level should be taken into consideration first and foremost - in which Howard has shown through example that he can and has succeeded at the highest level

regarding the Corporation... All of these players put up a certain amount of money in this game, From what I've read they were not all equal stakes, atleast that's what I got from it. With that being said, When Lederer was Approached are you confident he put up as much as say... Doyle? Or Chip? Or Barry? These players all have more money than he does from poker, they've all been playing longer and Barry well.. He's loaded.

Ex.) Let's speculate that Phil Ivey is a 75% favorite to 1.5 BB/hour at the 4k/8k level, but only a 52% favorite over Daniel in a $500,000 heads-up match - where is his time more well spent? What is Daniel's own desire to play $500,000 heads-up matches where his competitor gets to name the game, is he getting backed by the Wynn poker room to balance the competitor's slim edge? What is Daniel getting from the publicity of a heads-up match for half a mill between two big name poker pros at the Wynn? Heads-up matches are high variance and $500,000 is a lot of money to anyone. Someone do some EV calculations there...

Well... Ivey is nowhere NEAR a 75% Favorite in the 4k/8k Game for starters So i'm leaving that alone. On a side note, he stated he would be playing daniel in 9 games Heads-Up soon, when he has the time. I will take Daniel on his word stating he's paying the 500k out of his own wallet on everygame. Is it for the Wynn? Sure why not, He wants to get some good action at his room, I feel he also enjoys the thrill of playing the best HU and it's a great learning tool in my opinion... Not all the players are going to be playing Daniel here for the +EV move. For a lot of them It's gamemanship it's a big challenge, Headsup for 500k is no joke even for them. It's competition, and these guys thrive on that, it's why they are where they are today.

[The Czar 0]

Sorry to ask, but I cannot find any history on Daniel & Annie online. Anyone have any links?

[JaysonWeber 0]

There is also a reason he doesn't play higher than that. He can't beat the other pro's even at his own game, much less any other game spread at that limit.

That's completely false. Howard is one of the best limit hold 'em players on the planet. He is somewhat out of practice at the moment since he hasn't been playing a lot of cash games, but even so I'd say a limit hold em game between he and Daniel would be 50/50.Quote from Greenstein's Website:"During one of Andy Beal’s head-up matches against our coalition of players, Howard and I each lost $2,000,000 to Andy. The coalition won for the trip, but Howard was very disappointed by his result. I was content to sit out future matches, but Howard wanted to prove that he had been the victim of a bad run of cards. The next three times Andy came to town, Howard got his revenge, winning convincingly each time."

Sorry, He might be even money or maybe even a slight edge at the big game in Limit Hold'em... That I will take back... But the other games... I stand by my post in that regard I don't think he's as well rounded as the others... That quote is in regards to Limit Hold'em Against Andy Beal... Not a Mixed Game with Professional Poker Players. I did state that Lederer seemed to know something about Andy Beal, as Beal didn't feel it was cards running in Howard's favor those next two times, He must have felt he was outplayed because he asked not to play Howard again.

[spicynuts 0]

I'm not being biased towards Daniel at all here, I could name 2-3 players in every game that I think are favorites to Daniel BUT I don't think that Howard is one of them.

just curious... who would you name as the favorites in each of the games? I don't really think there are 3 players in the world who are a favorite over Daniel in pot or NL hold'em, but i'd be interested to hear who you have to say. All other games, just for discussion's sake as well.

[Random Fluke 0]

That quote is in regards to Limit Hold'em Against Andy Beal... Not a Mixed Game with Professional Poker Players.

I was only really refuting your post about Howard not playing big games because he wasn't good enough. Howard rose to the highest Limit hold 'em levels before he had tournament success. In fact I read a Dealer's journal somewhere the other day talking about Howard playing what was known as 'the big game' at the time, years ago, sitting with Doyle and Stuey Ungar. (the game was not mixed, it was limit, Howard's specialty) Dealer said Ungar was a ****bag who threw cards and didn't understand why people say he was such a legend when he treated people like dirt. .. but I digress.

You don't think he's tried to play in larger games? He's never made it higher than the limits he plays now and walked about with a profit longterm.

That's the quote that I take issue with, since it sounds authorative, and yet is so completely false.

[JaysonWeber 0]

I'm not being biased towards Daniel at all here, I could name 2-3 players in every game that I think are favorites to Daniel BUT I don't think that Howard is one of them.

just curious... who would you name as the favorites in each of the games? I don't really think there are 3 players in the world who are a favorite over Daniel in pot or NL hold'em, but i'd be interested to hear who you have to say. All other games, just for discussion's sake as well.

Yeah allright 3 players at every game... No I don't know that.. I guess I'd be safer saying 1 or 2 in about every game.This list could be WAY off... I'll say that first, I don't know these players nearly as well as Daniel or anybody else who plays with them.Limit Hold'em - Jennifer, Oppenhiem, Cassidy (Would have put them 50/50 but after Daniel's comments I'll give him a slight edge). I'd also Love to see E-Dog face off against Daniel.. Not saying he's a favorite but It'd be atleast a coinflip. I know Erick played a lot of shorthand Limit online. I'm also curious about Ted Forrest's Limit Game... Maybe Daniel will comment.7 Card Stud - Chip Reese, Ted Forrest, Phil IveyOmaha - Well... I dont think anyone is a huge favorite here? I guess Chip and Maybe Farha?I'm not gonna look at No-Limit... But for those noted its both 8/b and Straight Stud or Omaha.Anyone know if people have expressed interest in any other games? Razz, 2-7 Triple Draw etc.. I think he'll face most challengers in Limit Hold'em to be honest, thats where most players will feel they have an edge or even money with Negreanu. I'd be suprised if more than Greenstein and Ivey play him in Omaha I know they both are supposed to be playing him in every game.

[princeof56k 0]

Sitting with Howard on FTP in play money this morning. I took the chance to ask him a few t hings about Daniel and his challenge. Please dont flame for my opinion, just thought some might be interested. JoeMartini (Observer): just curious on your perspective about who has the edge in the big heads up matches between daniel and barry greenstein, i have a feeling daniel could be in for a rough stretch?Dealer: Hand #120268152poppatim (Observer): how well does it tye the stories togetherBAFA4LIFE (Observer): daniel is the manHoward Lederer: agreed joe--------------------------------------------------------JoeMartini (Observer): okay one last question, about Danny N's heads up challenges...any intentions on taking him up on it? Or is there no +EV there?BAFA4LIFE (Observer): you look like billy bong thornton in slingbladeDealer: Smileycaylor has 15 seconds left to actHoward Lederer: I think I have large positive EV in a few games, but I am not playing any cash game poker these daysHoward Lederer: too busy

I havent read all the posts so dont take this personally.I dont have a lot trouble with the comments Lederer made.The first comment he said he agreed that Daniel could be in for a tough stretch withe the heads up matches. I like Daniel and think he's a great player, but its hard to argue this. Daniel is playing heads up against some of the best players out there and hes letting them pick the game. I'll give Daniel credit for having the courage to try this, but he could easily be on the losing end of this.In the second comment Ledered says he is too busy to play Daniel. Lederer has made it know that he totally focused on tournaments right now and is also busy with his other endorsements. I'm not so sure about a large +EV he mentions, but he never says exactly what games. Personally, I dont think either player would have a LARGE +EV in these matches regardless of the game (the players are just too closely matched). Is he dodging Daniel? Possibly, but I dont blame him. If I were him, I would want to make sure my cash and heads up game skills are in peak condition. Given that these skills are not in top condition due to his focus on tournaments, I dont think his abilties are good enough to give him the odds he needs. In order to take on a match with one of the best players around in Daniel, he would need to be in top shape and clearly he is not.

[troutsmart 0]

From my observations of both of your styles, starting out at dead even, i believe you could take him heads up daniel. Not because i am on your board telling you this, but your style is a lot more agressive than his, and there is no worse of an opponent you want to face in limit hold'em than someone who is aggressive. In heads-up limit, Howard might be one of the most aggressive players out there. Whether he or Daniel would be more aggressive, I have no idea how it would play out. Many percieve Howard to be a tight player, based on his T.V. airtime, which could make any player appear tight or maniacal based on any given producer's decisions. As for the general discussion, here is my take:Daniel is in the elite category of players in the world. In a multigame format, you would have to look at the big game to find his peers. Combined with his tournament record, he is nearly in a category by himself. As for Daniel's limit game skills, I find it a ridiculous arguement that he is much of an underdog to any player. Daniel built his own bankroll, largely working up the tiers playing limit. Currently Daniel has played 84 hours in competitive cash games this year, excluding his heads-up matches. Much of that has been in a mixed game format, where the game is switched each round. It is likely that he has played less than 1000 hands of limit this year. To be a little rusty would certainly be expected. However, I don't think this is a "Tinman" that the pros want to giving "oil". He has played three limit matches, against top limit players, and stands 1-2. Keep in mind that he has played against specialists for the most part, players that have logged many thousand hands this year against many high-level limit opponents. They are well "oiled" and ready, yet he has willingly taken the competition. He will likely face several more of these specialists, but each will find a more "tuned-up" opponent in Daniel, as the rust fades and his worldclass skill is harnessed. At that point, any +EV will likely be diminished by any that might have capatilized early. Daniel may be flipping coins for large amounts of money, as many contend, but I personally feel there is a tremedous benefit associated with the risk. Are there better places to risk up to 500k? lol. His bankroll may be hindered, padded, or merely dance around back to even, but the intangible benefits might just be exponential. If you look at history, you find a correlation between large risk and reward. The most successful did something unique, something big, and something that most viewed as lunacy. May Daniel have such a fate.

[brian67 0]

Lets not forget Chau Giang in the top Omaha players list.

[illbill21 0]

i havent heard really too much about him in a while.. just besides being really active with the Full Tilt promotions.. i am sure we will hear from him in the upcoming WSOP.

[pokerboyvn 0]

Could you update us on Howards history with the big Games?

So the BIG game is the most important factor to prove skills?It seems like you seem to worship DN too much. I wonder how much you actually know about the pros' abilities when you playing 3/6 online. Just my thought.

[custom36 4]

Could you update us on Howards history with the big Games?

So the BIG game is the most important factor to prove skills?It seems like you seem to worship DN too much. I wonder how much you actually know about the pros' abilities when you playing 3/6 online. Just my thought.

He said "big games," not "THE big game."And let me be the first to say:STFU NEWB!!

[JaysonWeber 0]

Could you update us on Howards history with the big Games?

So the BIG game is the most important factor to prove skills?It seems like you seem to worship DN too much. I wonder how much you actually know about the pros' abilities when you playing 3/6 online. Just my thought.

Wow... someone reads things without understanding them.Where have I stated "THE BIG GAME" is the most important factor?.......... Secondly, I was asking a question regarding part of the Discussion. This really brought you to create an account? This is what pushed you over the edge? I was asking a question because I also WONDER how much I actually know about the pro's abilities and am CURIOUS to know more. What's wrong with me giving what I think is close? I Openly Stated I could be way off...And Im pretty proud I've worked up to 3/6 and 5/10... so who really cares? If that was meant to upset it really didn't...

[hotdog da 2rd 0]

He has an edge over Howard regardless of how much Howard is "focusing" on Tournaments or Cash Games. He.Is.A.Better.Player.Maybe now that Daniel replied people won't be so harsh on my thoughts of this matter! Howard is out of his league against Daniel in nearly every facet of poker, Limit Hold'em being his best shot.

you are one clueless annoying kid.

[JaysonWeber 0]

He has an edge over Howard regardless of how much Howard is "focusing" on Tournaments or Cash Games. He.Is.A.Better.Player.Maybe now that Daniel replied people won't be so harsh on my thoughts of this matter! Howard is out of his league against Daniel in nearly every facet of poker, Limit Hold'em being his best shot.

you are one clueless annoying kid.

Sorry man, I am just enjoying the discussion?What's wrong with feeling one player is better than another when it comes to poker? Forgive me for having an opinion.

[SoullesS 0]

I am sure anyone who asked Howard would have gotten the same answer. I didnt try to start trouble, I posted it to promote discussion on the topic. I am sure people are curious what other pros think about Daniel's challenge.And I am sure Howard wouldnt have said "But don't tell Daniel!!" Both men have the healthy egos that every good poker play has. I am sure Daniel knew that Howard thought he had the edge in some games, and Im sure Howard know Daniel thinks he has the edge. This wasnt news, just promoting discussion. And i wasnt railbirding I was playing. On an unrelated note, I too am a foxwoods player. How often and what games do you sit in?

Slorry if I misread the situation.. I just see sooo many people come and pester the pros when they are playing online.. guess I'm a little grizzled lolNo offense. I play at Foxwoods several times a week. Myself and my fiance have been focusing on the ACTS for the WPF most recently.. the NL cash games have been ridiculous as of late. Soo many douchebags it's almost impossible to play a decent game. If I have to play cash games I'll take 2/4 NL (the new one) or 10/20 limit. But I'm loving the ACTs right now. How bout you?PS. can anyone fill me in on the "rivaly" with DN and Annie? I couldn't find anything by searching.. PM me if you dont want to start trouble in public. I'm just curious.

[DeadStroke 0]

He has an edge over Howard regardless of how much Howard is "focusing" on Tournaments or Cash Games. He.Is.A.Better.Player.Maybe now that Daniel replied people won't be so harsh on my thoughts of this matter! Howard is out of his league against Daniel in nearly every facet of poker, Limit Hold'em being his best shot.

you are one clueless annoying kid.

Ok, Mr. KnowItAll, why don't you enlighten us with your infinite knowledge.

[TruePoker 1]

Lets all be honest, ~Howard Lederer is playing Phil Ivey heads up at 7 card stud, Howard is the obvious 90/10 dog here. This is the reason he is too busy !!!

[ArseneLupin3 0]

"There is absolutely nothing wrong with Daniel conceiving this promotion to help the Wynn. What is wrong however is to make innaccurate implications about someone turning him down. He gains from an even bet. Others don't. "-Sklansky