Ask Daniel

[Scriptpro727 0]

AA is obviously a great starting hand against any other random hand ... with no less than 77% to win. But as you increase the number of opponents in the hand it can lose it's value pretty quick. Even against 2 other hands it will drop down to close to 60%. Against 8 other random hands it went down below 40% and even close to 30% in one case that I entered. Most top tournament pros will tell you that you will need to win more than a few flips to win a tournament ... are you ready to 'flip' on the first hand? There are way too many variables to consider from player to player (and tournament to tournament) for any one answer here. Of course a win here lets you sleep off the next 5 levels if you want to or you can try to be the bully and run away with a stack. How many Day 1 chip leaders ever win a tournament ... not many ... but if you gave a poker player an opportunity to start with 8x chips more than the field or walk away rather than spend 2 or 3 days only to miss the money (which could still happen) there are probably quite a few who would take that 'risk' and just go play cash if they lose. If this is a 1mill buy-in event, then one would think that the field is pretty small and the advantage of this many chips goes way up. If this were the main event, then the 'value' of those 8x chips goes down since the number of opponents left is still huge. Good Luck!!

actually a spot-on analysis. Only 2 posts in 5 years. Interesting.

[blahblahblah 0]

Would you please talk about tournament payouts? I know that over time the payout structure has flattened out some. I personally think it should flatten out a lot more to be a more sustainable existence for regular players. Dan Harrington has said something to the effect that he thinks without sponsorship being a live tournament pro is barely manageable. Also, from what I understand many of the very best players, even player-of-the-year caliber players, need to me staked to play the tournament circuit. Often when you min cash you get 2x the buy in for what is a top 10% finish and hours (or days) of work. I think this should be at least 3x. The final table is also too disproportionate to me. At the 2011 ME the FT payout was:1st - $8,711,9562nd - $5,430,9283rd - $4,019,6354th - $3,011,6615th - $2,268,9096th - $1,720,3967th - $1,313,8518th - $1,009,9109th - $782,115I think first place would still be plenty happy with $5M and 9th getting around $1.2-1.5M for this once in a lifetime result would be far more fair (9th out of 6,865 people is the top .13%).People of even your caliber can go a year or far more without at least a major final table.Flattening the structure out more would help flatten out the swings tournament players go through and likely make it healthier.

[TrueAce13 18]

AA is obviously a great starting hand against any other random hand ... with no less than 77% to win. But as you increase the number of opponents in the hand it can lose it's value pretty quick. Even against 2 other hands it will drop down to close to 60%. Against 8 other random hands it went down below 40% and even close to 30% in one case that I entered. Most top tournament pros will tell you that you will need to win more than a few flips to win a tournament ... are you ready to 'flip' on the first hand? There are way too many variables to consider from player to player (and tournament to tournament) for any one answer here. Of course a win here lets you sleep off the next 5 levels if you want to or you can try to be the bully and run away with a stack. How many Day 1 chip leaders ever win a tournament ... not many ... but if you gave a poker player an opportunity to start with 8x chips more than the field or walk away rather than spend 2 or 3 days only to miss the money (which could still happen) there are probably quite a few who would take that 'risk' and just go play cash if they lose. If this is a 1mill buy-in event, then one would think that the field is pretty small and the advantage of this many chips goes way up. If this were the main event, then the 'value' of those 8x chips goes down since the number of opponents left is still huge. Good Luck!!

Amazing explanation. But you never said if this is a call/fold!

[donk4life 34]

Amazing explanation. But you never said if this is a call/fold!

I think this is a r/f situation.

[brent_81 0]

Daniel thanks for the answers, here's another question, what is your favorite poker room to play cash games in? Also, I once seen Todd Brunson in Ivey's Room, and his game broke, so he sat in a 1-3 NLHE game. Do you play the lower limit games when the big ones break, and if so do you still play pretty seriously?

[TrueAce13 18]

I think this is a r/f situation.

EVERYONE'S ALL IN BROOOO

[Snake Plissken 0]

I feel like your signature deserves a spot in next week's Weekly Rant episode

Yeah me too That's my gf by the way.

[donk4life 34]

the first hand of the 1mil wsop. everyone goes all in. you're in the bb w/ AA. Do you call?! Math please as well.

I'll one up you. First hand of the main event. everyone goes all in. you're in the bb w/ AA. Do you call?! Math lease as well.edit: and annie duke is at your table

[TwstdWrstr 10]

the first hand of the 1mil wsop. everyone goes all in. you're in the bb w/ AA. Do you call?! Math please as well.

The answer is clearly listed in your FCP Charter Membership handbook in the Q&A section. The math calculations are located in appendix B section 1q.

[BaseJester 1]

I personally think it should flatten out a lot more to be a more sustainable existence for regular players. Dan Harrington has said something to the effect that he thinks without sponsorship being a live tournament pro is barely manageable.

Why should providing a livelihood be an important goal for the tournament organizers? They want a big payout to impress the tourists, who pay the bills. If you want something with less variance for your purpose, go play cash.

[DanielNegreanu 141]

Daniel -re: golf betsI was once told a story from someone that lived with Nick Rainey that went like this...Nick camped out at the golf course the night before a match w/ you & Christian so he could bribe a groundskeeper to move the tees back on a certain hole where you had to clear a water hazard; moving the tee box to where it would be very difficult for you to clear the hazard but Nick/Patrik easily could.What do you think the odds are this actually happened/can you ever think of a specific hole where it did?

JUST talking to my golf guy now about that! Hmmm... I remember it playing long, but I played great on that back nine anyway and we came back from 7 down and won!

[DanielNegreanu 141]

Daniel, You can't act incredulous about those who are unhappy with Ivey. He was intimately accociated with FullTilt. I don't think he knew what was going on, but for you to say that the Ivey hate "boggles your mind" rings hollow to me. Ivey is linked to FTP in the same way that Annie and Phil H. are linked to UB. You can't get around that. Bill G.

No no no, and some more no, no, no. First of all, comparing Hellmuth to Annie at UB is akin to comparing apples and rotten oranges. PH wasn't involved in any decision making or marketing anything but "PH the brand" while Annie was more intimately involved in the business end of things. You need to understand the psyche of these people. They were getting paychecks, but essentially had nothing to do with the running of the business, much like if you owned stock in google and it was later revealed they were involved in shady business, that isn't something that makes you guilty by association in the least. How can you possibly believe that Juanda, Jennifer, Allen Cunningham, Andy Bloch etc. are equally guilty to the unholy trinity of Bitar, Ferguson, and Lederer? The hate should, and IS appropriately on their shoulders because they were driving the ship.

[Brian O'Hagan 0]

Hey Daniel, Somebody told me that when you were playing at fundtime your mom used to bring you your lunch everyday is that true? Also how big of bankroll were you using for those 10/20 games?

[DanielNegreanu 141]

After the main event and 50K chamionship; which poker title would you like most to have under your belt?Close between the WPT and EPT Championship. I'd say EPT Grand Final If and when online gambling is legalised in America, how do you anticipate the landscape is going to change (for better or worse, and pls don't say its going to grow ten fold because thats obvious). Are you beginning to prepare yourself for online legalisation?I think there will be growing pains at the outset, but in the long run it will be a good thing obviously. I know you're not a lawyer but regarding FTP; by the time everything is over like say 5 years from now what are people going to be saying/doing then, as opposed to the very justified witch hunt the poker community is currently pursuing? If FTP does pay back its players do you think Lederer and company will come out of hiding if they're not in jail?I don't expect them to ever rejoin the poker world and feel welcome, nor do I hope they do. We are much better off without them in our world.

[DanielNegreanu 141]

the first hand of the 1mil wsop. everyone goes all in. you're in the bb w/ AA. Do you call?! Math please as well.

Insta call obv.

[DanielNegreanu 141]

Do you think a wsop event that played PLO nhle and nl 2-7 would be a good event?If you think it would be a bad event, how come?

Not sure what you mean here, but no, I don't think it makes a lot of sense to offer that mixed event.

[DanielNegreanu 141]

Would you please talk about tournament payouts? I know that over time the payout structure has flattened out some. I personally think it should flatten out a lot more to be a more sustainable existence for regular players. Dan Harrington has said something to the effect that he thinks without sponsorship being a live tournament pro is barely manageable. Also, from what I understand many of the very best players, even player-of-the-year caliber players, need to me staked to play the tournament circuit. Often when you min cash you get 2x the buy in for what is a top 10% finish and hours (or days) of work. I think this should be at least 3x. The final table is also too disproportionate to me. At the 2011 ME the FT payout was:1st - $8,711,9562nd - $5,430,9283rd - $4,019,6354th - $3,011,6615th - $2,268,9096th - $1,720,3967th - $1,313,8518th - $1,009,9109th - $782,115I think first place would still be plenty happy with $5M and 9th getting around $1.2-1.5M for this once in a lifetime result would be far more fair (9th out of 6,865 people is the top .13%).People of even your caliber can go a year or far more without at least a major final table.Flattening the structure out more would help flatten out the swings tournament players go through and likely make it healthier.

I HATE the idea of making the min cash 3x. Absolutely hate it. It benefits squeezers and nits too much and creates an awful dynamic on the bubble. I think 10% of field is fine and I like the majority of the money to be top heavy, meaning mostly at the final table.

[DanielNegreanu 141]

Daniel thanks for the answers, here's another question, what is your favorite poker room to play cash games in? Also, I once seen Todd Brunson in Ivey's Room, and his game broke, so he sat in a 1-3 NLHE game. Do you play the lower limit games when the big ones break, and if so do you still play pretty seriously?

Last time I played small was at Aria when my ex-girlfriend wanted to play so I sat with her and raised every hand and goofed around. My favorite room is Commerce. Simple and practical.

[DanielNegreanu 141]

Hey Daniel, Somebody told me that when you were playing at fundtime your mom used to bring you your lunch everyday is that true? Also how big of bankroll were you using for those 10/20 games?

Yes, had a lunch made by her every single day. Best mom ever, I miss her dearly... My bankroll fluctuated between $1500 and $3000 mostly back then.

[Snake Plissken 0]

If you had the possibility to become 1 year younger in exchange for every 5 % of your net worth, how much % would you give up (if any)? I mean, you'd still be living in this time in 2012, but only younger and have less money. To clarify, 1 year younger for 5 % of your net worth2 years younger for 10 % of your net worth3 years for 15 %6 years for 30 % etc

[pokerkid 0]

What's driving 1000% signup growth for FCP forums month over month?

[Brian O'Hagan 0]

Yes, had a lunch made by her every single day. Best mom ever, I miss her dearly... My bankroll fluctuated between $1500 and $3000 mostly back then.

Did you ever go completly broke with that tiny bankroll? The games were extremely soft then but a downswing would surely of made you competly broke? If so how did you reload? Loan from your parents? You must of had almost no living expenses at that time?Also I read on some of your articles that at that time your winrate was $45/hour at 10/20. Is that true? Playing your 40 hours a week your bankroll most of grew at an amazing rate. Also did you ever play 5/10 or 20/40 at fundtime?Thanks!

[BillDelSanto 0]

Hey Daniel do you feel that 4500 is enough starting chips for the 1500 WSOP events?

[DanielNegreanu 141]

If you had the possibility to become 1 year younger in exchange for every 5 % of your net worth, how much % would you give up (if any)? I mean, you'd still be living in this time in 2012, but only younger and have less money. To clarify, 1 year younger for 5 % of your net worth2 years younger for 10 % of your net worth3 years for 15 %6 years for 30 % etc

Awesome question! I liked being about 25 so I'd say 12 years for 60%

[DanielNegreanu 141]

Did you ever go completly broke with that tiny bankroll? The games were extremely soft then but a downswing would surely of made you competly broke? If so how did you reload? Loan from your parents? You must of had almost no living expenses at that time?Also I read on some of your articles that at that time your winrate was $45/hour at 10/20. Is that true? Playing your 40 hours a week your bankroll most of grew at an amazing rate. Also did you ever play 5/10 or 20/40 at fundtime?Thanks!

I pretty much always played 10-20, they didn't have 20-40. Yeah, my winrate was $45 but I spent lots of money going out etc. I would go broke several times in my career.