2012 Elections

[LongLiveYorke 38]

Mitt wins Florida, and does so pretty cleanly and decisively.Are there any circumstances under which Mitt doesn't get the nomination now?Is there any reason for Santorum to still be in this, or should he bow out?Paul picked up 6%. What does the road ahead have in store for him? Will he ended up running as a third candidate (lots of support and money but no nomination)?

[Balloon guy 158]

Mitt wins Florida, and does so pretty cleanly and decisively.Are there any circumstances under which Mitt doesn't get the nomination now?Is there any reason for Santorum to still be in this, or should he bow out?Paul picked up 6%. What does the road ahead have in store for him? Will he ended up running as a third candidate (lots of support and money but no nomination)?

?Mitt has won like 10 of 26 elections he has ran for. Yet he's been lauded as the 'best person to run against President Obama" since June of last year. He spent $15.4 million to Gingrich's $3.4 million through Monday in Florida. 13,000 TV ads versus 200 commercials by Gingrich. Yet he only beat Gingrich by 15%, he didn't even get 50% of the vote.President Obama will match him dollar for dollar, ad for ad.His winning the nomination will be President Obama's best chance to stay in office.4 Months ago: "Mitt is the front runner"Every couple weeks a new guy takes the leadDays before each primary: "Mitt will win this and cinch the nomination"After each primary: "Well this one doesn't matter, the next one does though"Then he loses again: "Next one is for all the marbles"Finally wins one: "Okay, Mitt is the winner now, everyone drop out"However it is possible that the house and senate could go right and actually help this country. Then you lefties can all tell yourselves that Obama II saved the world.

[brvheart 1,752]

Paul left the state immediately after the debates since FL is a winner-take-all state. Santorum should definitely drop out.

[timwakefield 68]

?Mitt has won like 10 of 26 elections he has ran for. Yet he's been lauded as the 'best person to run against President Obama" since June of last year. He spent $15.4 million to Gingrich's $3.4 million through Monday in Florida. 13,000 TV ads versus 200 commercials by Gingrich. Yet he only beat Gingrich by 15%, he didn't even get 50% of the vote.President Obama will match him dollar for dollar, ad for ad.His winning the nomination will be President Obama's best chance to stay in office.4 Months ago: "Mitt is the front runner"Every couple weeks a new guy takes the leadDays before each primary: "Mitt will win this and cinch the nomination"After each primary: "Well this one doesn't matter, the next one does though"Then he loses again: "Next one is for all the marbles"Finally wins one: "Okay, Mitt is the winner now, everyone drop out"However it is possible that the house and senate could go right and actually help this country. Then you lefties can all tell yourselves that Obama II saved the world.

Gingrich has been polling badly against Obama though. Mitt is doing well. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...candidates.html

[Balloon guy 158]

Gingrich has been polling badly against Obama though. Mitt is doing well. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...candidates.html

How's Hillary poll against McCain? Because it would have the same level of accuracy.President Obama has been destroying the country, but the willing accomplices in the media are ignoring that, while running 11th hour 'interviews' with Newt's ex for the 14th time since their divorce on prime time.Newt's been slamming Romney, Romney's been slamming Newt, Santorum has been jumping up in the back, Paul has been perfecting his 'incredulous' look.President Obama has done nothing but secure the right to rendition Americans for torture and trying to censor the internet while unemployment is at 10%Any notion of a poll having any accuracy now is purely for the people who want to tow the conventional wisdom that Romney deserves this nomination because by spending 5:1 against Newt he was able to get 48% of the republican vote!!!!!!Somebody needs to step up and point out that the emperor has no clothes.

[brvheart 1,752]

Gingrich has been polling badly against Obama though. Mitt is doing well. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...candidates.html

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com...ama-loss/352881

[timwakefield 68]

How's Hillary poll against McCain? Because it would have the same level of accuracy.President Obama has been destroying the country [citation needed], but the willing accomplices in the media are ignoring that, while running 11th hour 'interviews' with Newt's ex for the 14th time since their divorce on prime time.Newt's been slamming Romney, Romney's been slamming Newt, Santorum has been jumping up in the back, Paul has been perfecting his 'incredulous' look.President Obama has done nothing but secure the right to rendition Americans for torture and trying to censor the internet while unemployment is at 10%Any notion of a poll having any accuracy now is purely for the people who want to tow the conventional wisdom that Romney deserves this nomination because by spending 5:1 against Newt he was able to get 48% of the republican vote!!!!!!Somebody needs to step up and point out that the emperor has no clothes.

No the polls aren't accurate as far as predicting how the vote will go in November after the real R vs D campaign and all. They're just accurate as far as "how people answered this question we asked."Re: no clothes, Romney's cheap and empty win.

[DJ Vu 176]

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com...ama-loss/352881

"If President Obama carries only those states where he had a net positive approval rating in 2011 (e.g. Michigan where he is up 48 percent to 44 percent), Obama would lose the 2012 election to the Republican nominee 323 electoral votes to 215."That's a pretty big "if."

[timwakefield 68]

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com...ama-loss/352881

Approval ratings aren't the same thing as "who would I vote for." This guy just blatantly pretends they are. "If President Obama carries only those states where he had a net positive approval rating in 2011..."Edit: Damn you DJ Vu!

[brvheart 1,752]

I don't disagree with your assessment. I don't think any of these polls matter. That's kind-of the point.The only thing we have is history. There is a history of polling data from 10 months before an election, and there is history of approval ratings vs. victory 10 months later. They both hold the same weight.

[hblask 1]

Mitt wins Florida, and does so pretty cleanly and decisively.Are there any circumstances under which Mitt doesn't get the nomination now?Is there any reason for Santorum to still be in this, or should he bow out?Paul picked up 6%. What does the road ahead have in store for him? Will he ended up running as a third candidate (lots of support and money but no nomination)?

None of the candidates will have 50% when the convention rolls around. That means a brokered convention, and that means anything can happen there. Usually, it means some back room deal where the leader gets the nomination by promising sexual favors and/or powerful jobs to the other candidates in exchange for their delegates. That could be tough this time. One possibility is a dark horse candidate, such as Christie, being thrown up there. It's rare and unlikely, but an interesting possibility.Santorum is sticking around because he's not doing too badly. He can't win, but he can show that his positions carry weight among voters.Paul is sticking around because he cares more about his message than anything, and his message is getting out. It is quite possible he will end up with the second most delegates because the caucus states could go his way. I think he would give up his delegates if they gave his son the keynote address at the convention. I don't think he'll run third party, because I'm not sure there's enough time to get on the ballot at that point. I believe what he'll do is throw his support to Gary Johnson, which bumps Johnson up high enough to get into the debates. The long shot: Paul runs on the Libertarian ticket, bumping Johnson. It would be a smart move for him, but I don't see it.

[InternetExplorer 2,609]

let's brainstorm a better way to do this nomination process.

[Balloon guy 158]

let's brainstorm a better way to do this nomination process.

One on one basketball...oh wait,Hair and skills at reading someone else's speech

[colonel Feathers 5]

Im s.ure this election will go the way of the last, 60%of whites will vote for romney, and 98%of blacks will vote for Obama.If romney wins all the headlines will be how whites cant see beyond color in voting still.

[Zealous Donkey 0]

Paul is sticking around because he cares more about his message than anything, and his message is getting out. It is quite possible he will end up with the second most delegates because the caucus states could go his way. I think he would give up his delegates if they gave his son the keynote address at the convention. I don't think he'll run third party, because I'm not sure there's enough time to get on the ballot at that point. I believe what he'll do is throw his support to Gary Johnson, which bumps Johnson up high enough to get into the debates. The long shot: Paul runs on the Libertarian ticket, bumping Johnson. It would be a smart move for him, but I don't see it.

You really think Paul would throw his support to Gary Johnson as a third party candidate? The only way a third party could even make a blip is if it plays out that way. I was thinking this was impossible, but you think he may actually do it?! Put a number on it, how likely do you think it is that Gary Johnson runs as an independent and Paul throws his support to GaJo. Gary needs to be working on his stage presence, ect. I watch him on youtube and he seems, ah... I don't know how to describe it, but it's not good. Stiff is not the word, aloof maybe, not totally engaged, non emotional, by which I mean an absolute Spock-like lack of emotion.

[brvheart 1,752]

You really think Paul would throw his support to Gary Johnson as a third party candidate? The only way a third party could even make a blip is if it plays out that way. I was thinking this was impossible, but you think he may actually do it?! Put a number on it, how likely do you think it is that Gary Johnson runs as an independent and Paul throws his support to GaJo. Gary needs to be working on his stage presence, ect. I watch him on youtube and he seems, ah... I don't know how to describe it, but it's not good. Stiff is not the word, aloof maybe, not totally engaged, non emotional, by which I mean an absolute Spock-like lack of emotion.

0%

[hblask 1]

You really think Paul would throw his support to Gary Johnson as a third party candidate? The only way a third party could even make a blip is if it plays out that way. I was thinking this was impossible, but you think he may actually do it?! Put a number on it, how likely do you think it is that Gary Johnson runs as an independent and Paul throws his support to GaJo. Gary needs to be working on his stage presence, ect. I watch him on youtube and he seems, ah... I don't know how to describe it, but it's not good. Stiff is not the word, aloof maybe, not totally engaged, non emotional, by which I mean an absolute Spock-like lack of emotion.

Gary Johnson is already running on the Libertarian ticket, and I'd give 100:1 odds he will be their nominee. What's their other choice, Wayne Allen Root?I haven't heard any rumblings from the Paul camp that they'd support Johnson, so it's pure speculation, I'd put it at maybe 5%. Johnson backed Paul in the Republican primaries even after dropping out, so Paul may have some loyalty. The main reason Paul would back Johnson is because it would give all the energy behind Paul's campaign somewhere to go. The reason he wouldn't is because it has a big chance of destroying his son's political career within the Republican party.Johnson is already polling between 7-9% in a matchup with Romney and Obama. Throw Paul's support behind that and it's an election changer. I've seen Johnson on TV a couple times lately, and he's much, much better at speaking already. Although to be honest, it almost seems like it's an environment thing. If it's a casual, laid back environment, he's great. If it's very formal or hostile, not so much.

[Zealous Donkey 0]

Johnson is already polling between 7-9% in a matchup with Romney and Obama. Throw Paul's support behind that and it's an election changer. I've seen Johnson on TV a couple times lately, and he's much, much better at speaking already. Although to be honest, it almost seems like it's an environment thing. If it's a casual, laid back environment, he's great. If it's very formal or hostile, not so much.

Yes, that would be interesting. If a Johnson 3rd party campaign could get any kind of momentum behind it, things could get interesting. There are a bunch of people in the republican camp who are looking for any reason at all to jump ship. If he could convince a couple of popular blogs to endorse him or at least treat him as though he could win, then the exodus would begin, and how big his numbers could get? I'd like to find out. For right now Gary Johnson could set himself on fire and still not get a MSM camera put on him. But a third party candidate polling in double digits with momentum behind it would be big news(remember Perot?). Meh! It would have to be a perfect storm. ..hum! .. look over there, looks like some clouds rolling up over the horizon. Do you here thunder??

[mk 11]

who the f is gary johnson imo

[hblask 1]

So remember that chart where you took a quiz and many of the people on here got ranked on their political positions?The people who created that have placed the current candidates on it:How sad is that?Whoever made the last update, do you want to put these guys on and show us how well our candidates represent us?

[Zealous Donkey 0]

Brilliant move by the administration!! The HHS mandate is going to play real well in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Not to mention how it is going to play to Catholics and Hispanics. http://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/hhs...tino-group-saysI mean this guy really is Harvard Law Review brilliant, not just garden variety Jimmy Carter brilliant. BTW all bets off for an independent run now. This will unite a large anti-Obama coalition that will gladly vote for Mitt Romney, if he doesn't find a way to screw it up. Reason Magazine and the libertarians are completely ignoring this, you can find thousands of commentaries on legalizing marijuana, but won't find anything or hear anything about these kinds of attacks on basic religious liberty.

[hblask 1]

Brilliant move by the administration!! The HHS mandate is going to play real well in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Not to mention how it is going to play to Catholics and Hispanics. http://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/hhs...tino-group-saysI mean this guy really is Harvard Law Review brilliant, not just garden variety Jimmy Carter brilliant. BTW all bets off for an independent run now. This will unite a large anti-Obama coalition that will gladly vote for Mitt Romney, if he doesn't find a way to screw it up. Reason Magazine and the libertarians are completely ignoring this, you can find thousands of commentaries on legalizing marijuana, but won't find anything or hear anything about these kinds of attacks on basic religious liberty.

I haven't checked Reason in the past couple days, are they really ignoring this? They've covered it in the past, but I guess I haven't seen anything this time on it, but I haven't been watching. This is a pretty big deal, the Catholics have been sending stuff to be read in church telling parishioners not to vote for Obama over this. There's a lot of Catholics.OK, I checked and it appears they've ignored it. You should forward the article to Gillespie or Welch, it seems like something they should be covering.

[Zealous Donkey 0]

I haven't checked Reason in the past couple days, are they really ignoring this? They've covered it in the past, but I guess I haven't seen anything this time on it, but I haven't been watching. This is a pretty big deal, the Catholics have been sending stuff to be read in church telling parishioners not to vote for Obama over this. There's a lot of Catholics.OK, I checked and it appears they've ignored it. You should forward the article to Gillespie or Welch, it seems like something they should be covering.

I am being kind of hard on them because they need to be on top of these kinds of things if they really want to be a player on national level. I have noticed things in the past they ignored(not really, because they eventually covered), they seem to let groups they don't like get beat up on. It is fashionable in(some) libertarian circles to be very anti-religion. Gary Johnson should say something.I went to mass tonight and they read a statement from the bishop. I have never seen this done before. They didn't tell people not to vote for Obama, but it is obvious the Church is going to challenge this with the big guns.They basically said the administration had lied about not funding abortions and about conscious clauses for Catholic Charities, hospitals, schools, ect. They are going to war on this one.

[Balloon guy 158]

So remember that chart where you took a quiz and many of the people on here got ranked on their political positions?The people who created that have placed the current candidates on it:How sad is that?Whoever made the last update, do you want to put these guys on and show us how well our candidates represent us?

[CaneBrain 95]

Brilliant move by the administration!! The HHS mandate is going to play real well in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Not to mention how it is going to play to Catholics and Hispanics. http://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/hhs...tino-group-saysI mean this guy really is Harvard Law Review brilliant, not just garden variety Jimmy Carter brilliant. BTW all bets off for an independent run now. This will unite a large anti-Obama coalition that will gladly vote for Mitt Romney, if he doesn't find a way to screw it up. Reason Magazine and the libertarians are completely ignoring this, you can find thousands of commentaries on legalizing marijuana, but won't find anything or hear anything about these kinds of attacks on basic religious liberty.

Lol. Yeah, without the religious vote, Obama is screwed. It's all over!