Balloon guy 158 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well if BG thinks he's a moron that's good enough for me to think he is onto something. Well that and he is right about everything. Obama's moderation is supported by facts. Just yelling is what you did. I guess the great economy had me fooled, the way its hiding and everything Link to post Share on other sites
JustDoIt 10 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Did Cam Newton and the Panthers predict a Romney win? Don't forget about Steelers beating Eagles, Sam. Link to post Share on other sites
Pot Odds RAC 23 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Day before the election. Final predictions? My Prediction: Romney grabs the popular vote by a wider margin than anyone is currently predicting, but Obama still takes the Electoral majority. Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 My prediction is that if that happens, not a single Republican insider will say that we should abandon the electoral college. Link to post Share on other sites
Balloon guy 158 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 My prediction, that the democrats will scream fraud if Obama does not win. But Obama will be secretly happy and will move out of Chicago into Malibu where he will begin to cash in on his fame. He tops $100million in earning in the first 2 years. Michelle will never again be proud to be an American Link to post Share on other sites
LongLiveYorke 38 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Obama will win the electoral college (by a good margin) and the popular vote by about 1%. Democrats will gain in the Senate. House will remain about the same. Colorado will "legalize it." The electoral college will still be a supremely stupid idea. Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 My prediction is that if that happens, not a single Republican insider will say that we should abandon the electoral college. Can you elaborate on this? I've been consistently surprised as to not read raving about the unfairness of the electoral college. There was barely any when it was benefitting the R's and barely any now that it's hurting them. Isn't it kind of a stupid idea? I seem to remember learning about 4 years ago, probably from you, that it is the state's choice as to whether to divide the seats by percentage, or award them all to the winner, which would accomplish the difficult task of making an incredibly stupid idea significantly worse. Why do I so rarely see even the harmed complaining about this? Link to post Share on other sites
CaneBrain 95 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Prediction: Obama 275-263. Obama wins: NV, WI, PA, MI, OH and NH. Romney wins: NC, VA, FL, CO and Iowa. Link to post Share on other sites
LongLiveYorke 38 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Prediction: Obama 275-263. Obama wins: NV, WI, PA, MI, OH and NH. Romney wins: NC, VA, FL, CO and Iowa. Obama's getting Iowa, Colorado will be closer, but I think Obama gets it too. Link to post Share on other sites
Balloon guy 158 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Romney's internal polling has him up in Ohio, tied in PA and WI Link to post Share on other sites
timwakefield 68 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah I think Obama gets about 300 electoral votes, and sneaks out a slim victory in the totally worthless popular vote. Link to post Share on other sites
timwakefield 68 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Romney's internal polling has him up in Ohio, tied in PA and WI That's some intense optimism right there. Obama's gonna cakewalk PA and probably WI. Ohio could be close, but is likely going to Obama. Link to post Share on other sites
Balloon guy 158 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Internal polling was the main source Nate Silver used in 2008. Internal polling is what the candidates need to have an actual unbiased count for how things are going. It's likely not partisan because that would be stupid to lie to yourself. Link to post Share on other sites
JubilantLankyLad 1,957 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It's likely not partisan because that would be stupid to lie to yourself. That's sig material right there. Link to post Share on other sites
FCP Bob 1,312 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Internal polling was the main source Nate Silver used in 2008. Internal polling is what the candidates need to have an actual unbiased count for how things are going. It's likely not partisan because that would be stupid to lie to yourself. Nate Silver@fivethirtyeight FYI: Internal polls released to the public have a 6-point bias, on average, as we saw in Wisconsin recall earlier this year. Link to post Share on other sites
CaneBrain 95 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Romney's internal polling has him up in Ohio, tied in PA and WI My internal polling says I'm the world's greatest lover. Link to post Share on other sites
JubilantLankyLad 1,957 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 My internal polling says I'm the world's greatest lover. heh heh heh "internal polling" heh heh heh Link to post Share on other sites
Balloon guy 158 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Nate Silver@fivethirtyeight FYI: Internal polls released to the public have a 6-point bias, on average, as we saw in Wisconsin recall earlier this year. Wait, you mean the election outcome he got wrong wasn't his fault? If only he knew this before he predicted the recall would pass. Link to post Share on other sites
Balloon guy 158 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 My internal polling says I'm the world's greatest lover. What's his name? Your poller? Inside you? Link to post Share on other sites
InternetExplorer 2,609 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 So it seems like Obama wins? No? We know, don't we? I wanna know now pls Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Yes, we know. Obama wins. Link to post Share on other sites
InternetExplorer 2,609 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 he's gone to over 71% on intrade. hmm. OK. Link to post Share on other sites
SAM_Hard8 50 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Romney wins by a wide margin and Pub's loose the seante because of the morons who can't keep their mouths shut about abortion. Link to post Share on other sites
FCP Bob 1,312 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Nate Silver@fivethirtyeight IMPORTANT: That we have Obama as a ~90% favorite does NOT mean we're predicting a landslide. We expect a close election. Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Perspective from the Canadian Banking industry - quoted from Scotia Economics' release: Scotia Economics views on todays U.S. Presidential election - "Finally! One of the developed world's longest election campaigns that stretches over a whole year is coming to a close today. Americans go to the polls to cast their ballots in a party duopoly that game theory would ordinarily suggest yields little difference in policy stances over time and particularly once the candidates are judged in office as opposed to from the noisy sidelines. Whether right or left, one cannot make a clear statement on which party may be best for the fiscal position of the US since Republicans blew the surpluses from the Clinton years and before the global crisis drove much of Obama’s deficits. I think Obama will win, but I don’t know how anyone can have much conviction over the call. As an economist, I judge the market and economic consequences to an Obama win to be less negative than under a Romney win because I think Romney would support inappropriately tighter monetary policy sooner than the US can take it, because his numbers don’t add up and the US would be flirting with another downgrade if unaffordable tax cuts in one of the most lightly taxed nations anywhere are delivered, because he risks picking a trade fight with China through a poor understanding of currency manipulation arguments, and because I think he would drive an even more acrimonious outcome in terms of grid lock by repealing Obamacare and parts of Dodd-Frank. I still think that if Obama wins, equities may sell off on less favourable tax treatment of investment income and status quo grid lock concerns, but a Romney rally would likely be short-lived if he sticks to his campaign rhetoric." Link to post Share on other sites
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