2012 Elections

[LongLiveYorke 38]

that is not a bet i would be in a hurry to take right now. funny thing is he might actually run well against BHO...the debates would certainly be worth watching. Sigh.

Debates would be interesting, but he'd be destroyed. If his unscrupulous background didn't sink him, he'd say something that would. Newt is really the ultimate Washington insider and champion of the politician-for-sale.

[akoff 0]

Debates would be interesting, but he'd be destroyed. If his unscrupulous background didn't sink him, he'd say something that would. Newt is really the ultimate Washington insider and champion of the politician-for-sale.

some truth to the insider part for sure...destroyed by BHO with no teleprompter, i doubt that. there is plenty for BHO to bleed over as well...i don't like any of them right now but i will vote for the winner and along as the things stay the way they are either Mitt ot Newt will probably win. i guess that is good...maybe!!

[LongLiveYorke 38]

some truth to the insider part for sure...destroyed by BHO with no teleprompter, i doubt that. there is plenty for BHO to bleed over as well...i don't like any of them right now but i will vote for the winner and along as the things stay the way they are either Mitt ot Newt will probably win. i guess that is good...maybe!!

Sorry, when I said, "he'd be destroyed," I meant in the election, not necessarily in the debates. He'd be pretty good in the debates, but he'd also be vulnerable and susceptible to saying something ridiculous.

[hblask 1]

The scary thing is that, when Cain drops out for real, pretty much all of his support will go to Newt. But there's no way the Republicans would actually allow themselves to nominate Newt, right?

I saw a headline today that Newt is over 50% in the polls in Florida now. It was too depressing to actually click on the link and read the article.In other news, Newt has apparently lost what little mind he had. The twitter responses on this are hilarious (I think the tag is #topnewt).

[Balloon guy 158]

Sorry, when I said, "he'd be destroyed," I meant in the election, not necessarily in the debates. He'd be pretty good in the debates, but he'd also be vulnerable and susceptible to saying something ridiculous.

Why would he be destroyed?I mean I guess I know the general stuff against Newt, but I can't see how any of it would negate his chances of beating an extremely bad president in a horrible economy with high unemployment and constant news stories of shady and illegal kick backs of hundreds of millions of dollars to supporters every week?I think the democrats only chance is if President Obama drops out.

[CaneBrain 95]

Why would he be destroyed?I mean I guess I know the general stuff against Newt, but I can't see how any of it would negate his chances of beating an extremely bad president in a horrible economy with high unemployment and constant news stories of shady and illegal kick backs of hundreds of millions of dollars to supporters every week?I think the democrats only chance is if President Obama drops out.

Lol. Oh you. Obama's personal likability numbers have stayed high throughout and the GOP wants to run the most prickish guy on the planet who comes with the added bonus of multiple personal scandals. Good plan.If you don't believe me, ask Henry. He'll tell you nominating newt is like gift wrapping the election for Obama. It'll be closer than 2008 tho. FL is going GOP no matter what this time.

[Balloon guy 158]

Lol. Oh you. Obama's personal likability numbers have stayed high throughout and the GOP wants to run the most prickish guy on the planet who comes with the added bonus of multiple personal scandals. Good plan.If you don't believe me, ask Henry. He'll tell you nominating newt is like gift wrapping the election for Obama. It'll be closer than 2008 tho. FL is going GOP no matter what this time.

I know you believe that if you say this over and over it will become easier to believe, but it still doesn't make it true.More democrats are having buyers remorse than ever before.President Obama steps down and Hillary takes his spot, I think you guys have a really good chance.He stays in or Biden gets the spot, and you guys are going down.

[CaneBrain 95]

I know you believe that if you say this over and over it will become easier to believe, but it still doesn't make it true.More democrats are having buyers remorse than ever before.President Obama steps down and Hillary takes his spot, I think you guys have a really good chance.He stays in or Biden gets the spot, and you guys are going down.

You're advice only flies in the face of most polling data and 250 years of political wisdom. Gutsy. It was smart of you to quit betting on politics.

[Balloon guy 158]

You're advice only flies in the face of most polling data and 250 years of political wisdom. Gutsy. It was smart of you to quit betting on politics.

You know you and I will have a bet, but its too far out now, and you know that I know how capable the republicans are of screwing up things badly.I also don't really want to bet on Mitt, since I think he will be really bad for the party. Like really bad.He'll do better than President Obama in general, but he will still steal and make things worse in order to promote the good ol boys system, like President Obama has been doing.And polling data from 12 months out is like checky's opinion, worth almost nothing because its been proven wrong way too often.

[Balloon guy 158]

not re-electable.

[Balloon guy 158]

[akoff 0]

not re-electable.

Throws like a girl!

[akoff 0]

Lol. Oh you. Obama's personal likability numbers have stayed high throughout and the GOP wants to run the most prickish guy on the planet who comes with the added bonus of multiple personal scandals. Good plan.If you don't believe me, ask Henry. He'll tell you nominating newt is like gift wrapping the election for Obama. It'll be closer than 2008 tho. FL is going GOP no matter what this time.

if you are correct about that and the GOP can pick up either Ohio or PA it would probably be over for BHO...i think both are in play with Ohio having a better chance...the Union boys in Philly will be voting 7 times each and Montgomery County just went Dem on the County ticket last month for the first time in a like 100 years...it is sad how many stupid people have left the city and moved to the burbs.

[strategy 4]

let me just say, if you ignore the impact of what's happening in europe right now, obama's chances are looking dramatically better. today's number was real good if you factor in the surprise 72k from previous months.

[CaneBrain 95]

let me just say, if you ignore the impact of what's happening in europe right now, obama's chances are looking dramatically better. today's number was real good if you factor in the surprise 72k from previous months.

Yep, gaining steam. Akoff, they would need both pa and Ohio not one or the other. Ultimately, Ohio is where the GOP will lose this elction.

[Balloon guy 158]

8.6% unemployment is now something to be happy about?Besides, these number will be adjusted upward just like all these numbers have been.And this is gaining steam?I think it's about to peak...12 months too soon.

[hblask 1]

Lol. Oh you. Obama's personal likability numbers have stayed high throughout and the GOP wants to run the most prickish guy on the planet who comes with the added bonus of multiple personal scandals. Good plan.If you don't believe me, ask Henry. He'll tell you nominating newt is like gift wrapping the election for Obama. It'll be closer than 2008 tho. FL is going GOP no matter what this time.

I'd like to think Newt would be enough to turn independents off. That's who decides every election, and while hard-core R's may be convinced to vote for Newt, I don't think a lot of independents will. If it's Obama vs Newt, the contest would come down to which party can convince the most people to leave their house and vote instead of staying in their house with the blinds close, gently weeping for America.

let me just say, if you ignore the impact of what's happening in europe right now, obama's chances are looking dramatically better. today's number was real good if you factor in the surprise 72k from previous months.

If you look behind the numbers, 3/4 of the decline in the unemployment rate was from people giving up, not from people getting jobs. So 3/4 of ... what, 0.6%? means the real drop is about 0.15%? Also, one report I saw said most of that decline was from seasonal hiring for the holidays. The numbers for the first few months of 2012 will be huge for Obama's chances of re-election. If unemployment can drop back to, say, 7% by the end of summer, it might be enough to guarantee him a win. I don't think that will happen, but in the end, it might not matter since the Republicans are desperately trying to run a candidate who Obama can beat. I half expect Palin to surge in the polls if the race starts to look competitive, just to be sure.

[FCP Bob 1,312]

If the GOP race wasn't ridiculous enough here comes a debate moderated by Donald Trumphttp://www.businessinsider.com/get-ready-f...te-ever-2011-12

[strategy 4]

If you look behind the numbers, 3/4 of the decline in the unemployment rate was from people giving up, not from people getting jobs. So 3/4 of ... what, 0.6%? means the real drop is about 0.15%? Also, one report I saw said most of that decline was from seasonal hiring for the holidays. The numbers for the first few months of 2012 will be huge for Obama's chances of re-election. If unemployment can drop back to, say, 7% by the end of summer, it might be enough to guarantee him a win. I don't think that will happen, but in the end, it might not matter since the Republicans are desperately trying to run a candidate who Obama can beat. I half expect Palin to surge in the polls if the race starts to look competitive, just to be sure.

I don't personally pay any attention to the unemployment rate. it's the +/- jobs number that's important, and the number we want is 180-200/mo. it can be a noisy indicator but it's truly what the market pays attention to:http://savvysloth.com/2010/10/20/nonfarm-p...t-expectations/I spend all day every day looking at every econ/business headline there is, between wsj, ft, bloomberg, etc. and the majority of the data points over the last month or two have been positive. if I had to guess at where stocks would be today if not for the european crisis, I would guess about 1350 for the S&P, ie where it was right before we had the double-dip scare this summer. there's a chance that this starts snowballing before "mid 2013" as the fed's been saying, and this month's number+revisions definitely lend some credence to that theory. I'm certainly hoping it's sooner than later.

[hblask 1]

I don't personally pay any attention to the unemployment rate. it's the +/- jobs number that's important, and the number we want is 180-200/mo. it can be a noisy indicator but it's truly what the market pays attention to:http://savvysloth.com/2010/10/20/nonfarm-p...t-expectations/I spend all day every day looking at every econ/business headline there is, between wsj, ft, bloomberg, etc. and the majority of the data points over the last month or two have been positive. if I had to guess at where stocks would be today if not for the european crisis, I would guess about 1350 for the S&P, ie where it was right before we had the double-dip scare this summer. there's a chance that this starts snowballing before "mid 2013" as the fed's been saying, and this month's number+revisions definitely lend some credence to that theory. I'm certainly hoping it's sooner than later.

Yeah, I'm starting to see a lot more up indicators than down, but there are a couple things I think that will limit the recovery.First, the housing bubble hasn't seemed to have played out yet. The Fed continues to make it impossible to know if we have hit the bottom, and until houses start moving, it'll be hard to grow much. And if it turns out the bottom is still 10% lower, it will get a lot worse before it gets better.Probably the bigger issue though is our unchecked govt spending. There are no serious plans to reduce deficits by any meaningful amount, and until that happens, everyone is sort of holding their breath seeing which comes first: the recovery or the failure of the dollar.I think the news we've been seeing for the last couple months reflects the fact that at least we've stopped digging a deeper hole (for now). Over time markets can adjust to anything as long as the govt doesn't keep making it worse.

[hblask 1]

If the GOP race wasn't ridiculous enough here comes a debate moderated by Donald Trumphttp://www.businessinsider.com/get-ready-f...te-ever-2011-12

At the risk of sounding like a conspiracy nut, I'm guessing this has to do with Ron Paul's numbers in Iowa. The R's really don't want him to do well there; he's showing very strong; and he and Trump have bumped heads. So now we've Ron Paul kicked out of the next debate and then a week before the Iowa primary a debate moderated by someone who has publicly attacked Ron Paul.In national politics, there are no accidents. This is all carefully choreographed, and this is a pretty strong signal. Combine this with the anti-Gary Johnson rules and the message is clear: suck up to the old guard insiders or hit the road.

[CaneBrain 95]

Sounds less like a conspiracy and more like a good way for the GOP to accomplish two objectives at once.

[strategy 4]

Yeah, I'm starting to see a lot more up indicators than down, but there are a couple things I think that will limit the recovery.First, the housing bubble hasn't seemed to have played out yet. The Fed continues to make it impossible to know if we have hit the bottom, and until houses start moving, it'll be hard to grow much. And if it turns out the bottom is still 10% lower, it will get a lot worse before it gets better.Probably the bigger issue though is our unchecked govt spending. There are no serious plans to reduce deficits by any meaningful amount, and until that happens, everyone is sort of holding their breath seeing which comes first: the recovery or the failure of the dollar.I think the news we've been seeing for the last couple months reflects the fact that at least we've stopped digging a deeper hole (for now). Over time markets can adjust to anything as long as the govt doesn't keep making it worse.

I'm wearing rose-colored glasses. bernanke's guess is infinitely better than mine, because he gets to peek at the teal book. his 2013.5 figure probably reflects knowledge of the rate of delevering by consumers, the total amount of debt, etc.far as I know, we're still as deficit-y as we ever were. the recession makes the budget look look far worse, for the same reason that everything's gonna look sweet when we get much closer to full utilization in the economy in the years to come. the deficit cut will likely get wiped out by revenue growth regardless of how we tweak the budget and/or tax rate.it's like the quote from iousa: this is america, we don't do anything until there's a crisis. this was not a crisis, this was a weak warning shot (S&P downgrade) that didn't impact our borrowing costs in the slightest.

[timwakefield 68]

GG Herman Cain

[hblask 1]

The Onion on Cain's dropping out