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Tough Decision W/ Bottom Set


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I don't think you're ever going to be shown T9/AT more than 75% of the time the way this hand plays out. If the board is rainbow, I could see a reasonable case for it, but 3-1 is still a really good price.It doesn't matter that most of his FDs are combo draws like Q9hh, 89hh, T8hh, Axhh, he can't profitably call the river with any of them. Also your bet sizing does not encourage him to fold the turn, so he could even have something like KTs and with your larger sizing on the river, he realizes that it's likely not good and turns it into a bluff.Even if you don't give him any value hands worse than yours, he's certainly likely to bluff at least 1 out of every 4 times since all of the draws missed. Especially if you're going to fold a set there.

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I don't think you're ever going to be shown T9/AT more than 75% of the time the way this hand plays out. If the board is rainbow, I could see a reasonable case for it, but 3-1 is still a really good price.It doesn't matter that most of his FDs are combo draws like Q9hh, 89hh, T8hh, Axhh, he can't profitably call the river with any of them. Also your bet sizing does not encourage him to fold the turn, so he could even have something like KTs and with your larger sizing on the river, he realizes that it's likely not good and turns it into a bluff.Even if you don't give him any value hands worse than yours, he's certainly likely to bluff at least 1 out of every 4 times since all of the draws missed. Especially if you're going to fold a set there.
Couple things (Note that I've never played as high as 2/4, so I have no idea how the games play)1. It's full ring, and Cobalt raises from EP. Is it standard to just flat in the CO with hands like Q9s, 89s, and T8s even though you run the risk of being squeezed by the 3 players left to act?2. If we do give villain a bunch of draws. I thought he would be less likely to bluff since all the draws missed, and we could talk ourselves into making a hero call with the bottom of our value range.
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I don't know how FR plays online. I think 89s & T8s are really really likely hands for him to flat there. Q9s maybe less so, but I don't know. As for the blinds squeezing, I'm sure that's much less common in FR than 6m, less likely with only one caller to squeeze and even less likely when the original raise comes from EP. Those three things would lead me to guess that squeezing is unlikely.He may be less likely to shove a missed draw since all of the draws missed, but that's what makes them missed draws. The fact that nothing got there also means that we bricked a draw a fair amount. I don't know anything about the villain, but on that board, I'd expect that he fastplays a lot of hands because the board will get messy and he might lose his action from hands that would otherwise pay him off.I think the biggest bottom line is that we're getting 3-1 here. That means that he had to flop a straight and play it like this more than 75% of the time for us to profitably fold and I just cannot see how that is possibly the case here.

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Especially if you're going to fold a set there.
I don't anticipate that most villains would anticipate their opponent folding a set there...which weights it towards him not bluffing. I dunno...it's just a super funky line for a bluff...flat...flat...timebank bluff-raise-shove. I know that when I take that line, I've almost never got a bluff (and in my experience, neither do opponents). If I'd just checked the river and then he shoved, then yeah, I think he can be betting missed draws plenty. That does raise the question...should I ever be c/cing this river if I'm planning to b/f?
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I don't anticipate that most villains would anticipate their opponent folding a set there...which weights it towards him not bluffing. I dunno...it's just a super funky line for a bluff...flat...flat...timebank bluff-raise-shove. I know that when I take that line, I've almost never got a bluff (and in my experience, neither do opponents). If I'd just checked the river and then he shoved, then yeah, I think he can be betting missed draws plenty. That does raise the question...should I ever be c/cing this river if I'm planning to b/f?
Pure bluff maybe. However if he has like AK or QJ or Axhh he could easily turn them into bluffs anticipating that you fold two pair hands, combo draws they can't beat for whatever reason, turned or rivered sets and maybe a set of Jacks. (since JJ is a bluff catcher at this point, I don't see him value shoving KQ)I think he has more bluff catches in his range then draws by the river, so B/F>C/C. Don't know where B/C goes because I don't play full ring so have no idea about tendencies.Edit: I should have looked up, it appears that John and Acid have already said this. (I thought only acid posted once).
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  • 3 months later...

What an interesting hand as I search thru this site. In the room I play in here in Michigan, that would be exactly what it turned out to be most of the time, being a 'something' flush draw ... never very often the set of Qs since our Hero's line woud be consistent with a set or flush draw so the UTG would have re-raised his set to price out the flush draw from the Hero. The other angle here is that if Hero folds, then UTG is basically free-rolling the main pot.You certainly could just call the 48 for pot control, especially in position of a large stack on a very wet board. There are however a TON of cards that make this board more dangerous and what do you do with a large lead-out bet on Turn? You can still fold, but at least you saw the Turn.I agree that it is possible to fold based on bankroll conditions as well and that could be a consideration of the UTG. I don't find many that I play with remembering 'last week's hands' ... which is good for me ... to the point where UTG doesn't bluff here because of a call made previously.This is obviously a huge draw or QQ ... but I don't think that big of a stack goes in without a nut draw or open ended strt flush draw, not QQ or 88 ... so it comes down to are you ready to flip for you whole stack? I fold some, call most ... if I can re-load to get it back!!

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