brvheart 1,752 Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 Also, as far as strategy, the only possible exploit would be to isolate some kind of 'diminished interest probability' in auctions offering 50 bid packages that are also closing at statistically favorable end times, to see if there's any way to get exploit a +ev cost/bid ratio. If so, it would be like the end stairway on level 3-1 of Super Mario Brothers, where as long as your attention span held out and you kept jumping on the bouncing turtle shell, you could get unlimited lives.Calculate an average bid/success ratio for certain items or categories of items, then use an autobidder to exploit the listings that have the most favorable percentage break in terms of acquisition success relative to gross bid expenditure, relative to what they could be resold for on ebay. It would be a pretty basic formula. That would be the way to maximize profit margin, if a bid enrichment exploit could be established.There is a small problem to all of this. You can only win 10 auctions every 28 days. Also, you can only win one or two expensive items every 28 days. I don't know the exact rules, but it's something like that. You can buy items that allow you more wins... but that's profit down the drain. Link to post Share on other sites
Spademan 94 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 unless its a supernova scenario ala the mass abandonment of Myspace.Read my mind. I had you as Zuckerburg for a reason. Link to post Share on other sites
AmScray 355 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Myspace was just so poorly designed. I never had a page, and going to people's pages really annoyed me. I hated the background pictures and how the words floated on top of everything and it was hard to read. Terrible design, plain and simple. The free market destroyed them.Myspace was a brave, new world. They scalped Livejournal with a better concept; easy to criticize them in hindsight since everything 'seems so obvious' now that the game is a lot clearer but at that time, they were in uncharted territory and the gold standard- the shoulders upon which facebook now stands. Their misstep was too much young demographic targeting, which caused the serious, credible grown ups to vote with their feet and leave for the alternative. This caused a second wave of users to follow, followed again by an outright exodus and critical mass went in the other direction. Social networking- like any other user based application- is all about being where everyone else is. You either are, or you aren't. There's very little room for second fiddles in that world. It's why eBay hasn't been unseated, in spite of numerous, credible attempts and a diminishing overall relevance. For the record, I give Facebook a 7.5/10 "long term durability" rating, as far as it becoming an ubiquitous part of the internet furniture. Twitter, 4/10, or about the same as Groupon. Myspace may as well start the countdown to total irrelevance, when the bones are finally sold off to Russian private equity who use the domain in a click arb scheme for Mortgages and Teeth Whitening ads.I've been on the internet since the days of acoustic modems and Orientals on early BBS's sending each other text-mosaic porn. I remember Compuserve and PPM. It's been totally insane to watch it grow up from nothing to 'something kinda interesting' to what it is now, with so much growth left in sight. I guess it's like being born in New York City in 1855 and living there until you're 100, observing the indescribable transformation in the process. Link to post Share on other sites
vbnautilus 48 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I've been on the internet since the days of acoustic modems and Orientals on early BBS's sending each other text-mosaic porn. I remember Compuserve and PPM. It's been totally insane to watch it grow up from nothing to 'something kinda interesting' to what it is now, with so much growth left in sight. I guess it's like being born in New York City in 1855 and living there until you're 100, observing the indescribable transformation in the process.Long live Quantum Link. Link to post Share on other sites
CobaltBlue 662 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Friendster was before MySpace, no? I remember being an early Friendster adopter and balking at the necessity of signing up for MySpace/Facebook as a result. Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I think what you are missing isThe average person is bidding 10-15 times to lose on the 50 bid pack. If only 1 in 10 people wins after making this amount of bids, it means you need to spend 10 x 10 or 100 bids for every 50 bid pack you win. I think the key to beating the system, is to never give up once you've started bidding on an item, until you've reached the retail value in amount invested.As long as you are willing to pay retail price in a worst case scenario, as long as you don;t stop bidding, you can't really 'lose' persay. The people that feed the system are the people that try to cherry pick good deals and end up bidding 10 or 15 times and not winning, then giving up.Regardless, with the max of 10 wins per month rule, and the fact that 'voucher' bids can't be used towards the value of an item if you lose the auction, makes the system a lot less exploitable. I think if you actually needed something they were selling, and were going to buy it anyway, you can usually get a pretty good bargain on some items, as long as you just keep bidding until you either win the auction, or have bid up to the retail amount, at which point, you just buy the item. Link to post Share on other sites
avsfan 0 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 A as long as you just keep bidding until you either win the auction, or have bid up to the retail amount, at which point, you just buy the item.if your a hella fool. a scam is a scam is a scam. avoid! Link to post Share on other sites
WKTSWAY 0 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 How do you look at items previously won so you can see the average the items are going for?I found "recently sold for ____" but it only shows one of that item that sold...I want a bigger sample size before I start trying to bid, where can I find that? Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 How do you look at items previously won so you can see the average the items are going for?I found "recently sold for ____" but it only shows one of that item that sold...I want a bigger sample size before I start trying to bid, where can I find that?There is a search box in the Ending Auctions section. Just type a word and it will show the last like 20 auctions for that item.It's easier to see if you click on an item and then toward the top right corner click "View all Ending Auctions". Then at the top of the page the search box is easy to see. It's also on the main page though, it's just kindof hidden in the middle. Link to post Share on other sites
hblask 1 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 So I was going to sign up for this site and just try it... but you're in for $60 before you start. I figured it would be like iTunes where they accumulate your bid fees and bill you weekly or monthly or whatever. I'm willing to blow $10 to give it a try, but $60 is too much for a site that is so stacked against users to begin with. Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 So I was going to sign up for this site and just try it... but you're in for $60 before you start. I figured it would be like iTunes where they accumulate your bid fees and bill you weekly or monthly or whatever. I'm willing to blow $10 to give it a try, but $60 is too much for a site that is so stacked against users to begin with.Just wait till you need to buy something then, and just plan on buying it there for full retail. That way you will trick yourself into understanding that you're really not wasting $60. The retail prices are not exorbitant. Link to post Share on other sites
hblask 1 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Just wait till you need to buy something then, and just plan on buying it there for full retail. That way you will trick yourself into understanding that you're really not wasting $60. The retail prices are not exorbitant.Yeah, but on this site, the average person pays 2 or 3 or maybe 10 times retail. The math has been shown in this thread. And then, having paid that much, there's a chance of nothing.So that $60 up front fee is a high price to pay for the chance that you will be one of the small minority of people that isn't keeping the site in business. I imagine there are people who could get good at it, but I'm pretty sure I won't be one of them. Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 Yeah, but on this site, the average person pays 2 or 3 or maybe 10 times retail. The math has been shown in this thread. And then, having paid that much, there's a chance of nothing.So that $60 up front fee is a high price to pay for the chance that you will be one of the small minority of people that isn't keeping the site in business. I imagine there are people who could get good at it, but I'm pretty sure I won't be one of them.Are you seriously as stupid as the average person? I know you're not, which is what I'm pointing out. The only way you pay more than retail is if you're retarded. They have a 'buy now' button that allows you to purchase an item minus any real bids that you've placed, so that you can ensure that you won't pay 2 or 3 or 10 times more than retail. Link to post Share on other sites
rsmbox 1 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Are you seriously as stupid as the average person? I know you're not, which is what I'm pointing out. The only way you pay more than retail is if you're retarded. They have a 'buy now' button that allows you to purchase an item minus any real bids that you've placed, so that you can ensure that you won't pay 2 or 3 or 10 times more than retail.^^^ thisbut yeah, the only way the tools out there are spending retarded amounts for something is by constantly chasing the lowball amazing deals. instead, you just need to keep bidding on one item until using the "buy now" option is your best bet. Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 ^^^ thisbut yeah, the only way the tools out there are spending retarded amounts for something is by constantly chasing the lowball amazing deals. instead, you just need to keep bidding on one item until using the "buy now" option is your best bet. This is the ONLY bet... not just the best one. Link to post Share on other sites
hblask 1 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Are you seriously as stupid as the average person? I know you're not, which is what I'm pointing out. The only way you pay more than retail is if you're retarded. They have a 'buy now' button that allows you to purchase an item minus any real bids that you've placed, so that you can ensure that you won't pay 2 or 3 or 10 times more than retail.Right, but if I want to buy something retail, I doubt they have the lowest price. And obviously, on average, customers at this site pay way more than retail. So the reason to visit the site is if it is something you are going to buy anyway and think that the chance of paying slightly more than you would on Amazon or wherever is worth it due to the chance of getting it for a steal.So for me, I don't need anything that would make it worth it to make that kind of gamble. Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 Right, but if I want to buy something retail, I doubt they have the lowest price. And obviously, on average, customers at this site pay way more than retail. So the reason to visit the site is if it is something you are going to buy anyway and think that the chance of paying slightly more than you would on Amazon or wherever is worth it due to the chance of getting it for a steal.So for me, I don't need anything that would make it worth it to make that kind of gamble.FYI, you should do some research before you just dismiss the whole process. Their retail price for a Motorola XOOM is 588. Amazon is 598. So even with the worst case scenario, you are still better off on some things, and it's certainly not even entering into a "gamble". Link to post Share on other sites
Theraflu 1,035 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 FYI, you should do some research before you just dismiss the whole process. Their retail price for a Motorola XOOM is 588. Amazon is 598. So even with the worst case scenario, you are still better off on some things, and it's certainly not even entering into a "gamble".Does God sponsor this site? Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 Does God sponsor this site?I know it's really coming across like that, but I'm just trying to squash bad info. I honestly don't care either way, my original point was just to let everyone know they could get a good deal on stuff. I've gotten several gift cards now, and I haven't been burnt on anything. They come in the mail in a few days every time. Easy Peasy Lemon Squeezy. Link to post Share on other sites
hblask 1 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 FYI, you should do some research before you just dismiss the whole process. Their retail price for a Motorola XOOM is 588. Amazon is 598. So even with the worst case scenario, you are still better off on some things, and it's certainly not even entering into a "gamble".You're right, I didn't actually check, I just assumed they wouldn't be competitive. I guess the suckers are subsidizing the retail price. Link to post Share on other sites
myenemy 0 Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 http://www.quibids.com/auctions/294390087-LG-Infinia-60-HDTVLG Infinia 60" HDTV sold for $3.65 winning bidder only placed 10 bids. Link to post Share on other sites
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