Random News Observations

[FCP Bob 1,312]

Bank holiday. One step closer to the Greek exit. The next few days are probably going to be a big buying opportunity for US investors, for anyone with the balls to buy foreign equity right now.

 

Just be extra extra careful with Chinese stocks.

[InternetExplorer 2,609]

I still think emerging and just generally foreign is going to be the place to be for the next several years, based on what history says about US stocks at these P/Es. however, history doesn't have many points of reference for interest rates like these, so it's hard to say.

 

I don't understand why china is trying so hard to stop the bubble from popping.

[FCP Bob 1,312]

I don't understand why china is trying so hard to stop the bubble from popping.

 

Patrick Chovanec ‏@prchovanec 4h4 hours ago

Why is China so desperate to keep stock prices from falling? More than meets the eye? Do losses from margin lending pose a systemic risk?

 

Patrick Chovanec ‏@prchovanec 4h4 hours ago

A lot of Chinese companies have been juicing their (declining) profits from core business with "investment gains". What happens now?

 

 

This will help explain.

 

Read the linked article from the SCMP

 

George Chen ‏@george_chen 6h6 hours ago

Q: Why must Communist Party rescue the stock market?

A: Angry investors -> Social unrest

MORE: http://www.scmp.com/...cy-latest-stock …

 

[FCP Bob 1,312]

 

Paul Baumgart

‏@paulbaumgart

"Individual investors own four-fifths of China’s stocks"

http://www.nytimes.c...ble-threat.html

…

[FCP Bob 1,312]

Panic, invincibility and blame in China's stock market

 

 

 

 

 

If the underlying fear is damage to the real economy wouldn't it be better tackled by tax cuts or public spending increases?

 

But that is not the deepest fear. The government's terror is being seen to be incompetent and even impotent.

 

This is a matter of confidence which goes well beyond the stock market.

 

Speculators have called Beijing's bluff. The stock market has become a classic "too big to fail" problem, which is where step two comes in:

Look invincible

 

 

Beijing sees its own credibility as the thin red line between order and chaos.

 

If confidence in the stock market fails, might it also fail in the banking system, the already fragile economy and ultimately in the management of all three?

 

The fact is that no one knows how much debt is out there or ultimately who stands behind it when the lenders cave in. Add to uncertainty the risk of public outrage.

 

Anyone who invested in shares before March is still sitting on a profit, but that still leaves a lot of people who have lost their shirt.

 

After all, 12 million new trading accounts were opened in May alone, the majority in the hands of buyers with little education, even less trading experience and whose stock market adventure was funded by borrowing.

 

The first rule of governing China is to keep angry people off the streets. Hence the paradox of a government introducing panic measures in order to look all powerful.

 

Of course, government taking control is not what China's stock markets are supposed to be about.

 

Markets require regulation but at the end of the day they need to develop effective feedback, co-ordination and a mature assessment of risk.

Government infantilising investors by galloping in to ensure the index stays up is not a market outcome.

 

Issuing orders to market players to buy this, hold that and freeze the next thing is a retreat to command economics.

 

No wonder one state newspaper has declared the stock market "a battlefield".

 

But what constitutes victory? And who exactly is the enemy? This leads us to step three:

Find someone to blame

 

A few bad apples? At the end of last week the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced an investigation into market manipulation. After months of suspicious trading patterns, the timing of this move will provoke a hollow laugh in some quarters.

 

Foreigners? On social media, rumours swirled last week about overseas investors undermining the market by betting against Chinese shares via stock futures.

 

But the China Financial Futures Exchange has already denied these rumours. Chinese markets are largely insulated from global pressures and foreigners are marginal players however tempting a target.

 

A fall guy? Many investors are calling for the regulator's head. The chief of China's market regulator is Xiao Gang and his days must now be numbered.

 

But the real blame should lie squarely with the central government.

 

Its strategy, clear for the best part of a year, has been to pump up the stock market so that it could earn billions by selling shares in state owned enterprises, and at the same time make the public feel paper-rich again after the languishing property market had made them feel poor.

 

On this arithmetic, government and its state owned enterprises could offload debt, and Chinese citizens could be persuaded to save less and spend more thereby energising the rest of the economy.

 

But this was government gaming the market for opportunistic reasons rather than building a healthy stock market for the long term.

 

Beijing knew better than anyone that the surge was driven by borrowing, with speculative bets made not on any clearheaded assessment of company prospects or earnings but on gaming government hype.

 

In March, Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the People's Bank of China said: "A buoyant market on a solid footing could be a reliable funding source."

 

But what about a buoyant market on a shaky footing? Economic growth in the first quarter fell to 7% year-on-year.

 

And there was no sign of a turnaround in the second quarter. Until 12 June, stocks galloped ahead regardless.

 

All along sober heads warned that Chinese stock markets were stepping onto a "treadmill to hell".

 

Reform guru Wu Jinglian called the market "a casino where one player can see the cards of the other players".

 

Hu Shuli, editor of the financial journal Caixin cautioned against "pushing a 'mad bull' stock market to solve fundamental issues".

"Follow the trend until you find yourself in a coffin," thundered one market sceptic.

 

But we are where we are.

 

At an important crossroads where Beijing has chosen to flout its own reform agenda and move against the market. Perhaps there was an alternative to panic, invincibility and blame.

 

A confident Chinese government could have elected to hold its nerve; honour its pledge "to make markets the decisive force" in the economy and think about what it would do in the real crisis which threatens over bad loans and property.

 

Is it too late? Probably.

 

And worse, the events of the past 10 days have undermined reform, undermined confidence and made the real crisis substantially more likely.

 

[THUMBERLGRUF 1]

Yup, the Euro is the worst thing to ever happen to the Greek economy.

If you are sarcasaming here, it went over my head.

 

Socialism and sucking off of other countries money is wat happened to greece.

[FCP Bob 1,312]

who wants a flamethrower for fun at your next family BBQ

 

http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/13/smallbusiness/flamethrowers-public-sale/

[FCP Bob 1,312]

Man Protecting a Muslim-Free Gun Store in Oklahoma Accidentally Shoots Himself

[FCP Bob 1,312]

[FCP Bob 1,312]

0.0% of Icelanders 25 years or younger believe God created the world, new poll reveals

[Dubey 1,035]

A better question would be: is God responsible for the creation of the world?

 

I think even most people who identify as religious are buying into some form of evolution at this point, no?

[Scrim 115]

It means that religious superstition is demographically dead in Iceland.

[FCP Bob 1,312]

This made me think of the Star Trek episodes

 

Microsoft is deleting its AI chatbot's incredibly racist tweets

 

 

 

 

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

wrong thread

[hank213 1,823]

McGee, what's up with the unicam this year? They seemed to be leaning fairly progressive for a deep red flyover state. First there was the whole death penalty ban and veto override, now I read that they passed a bill to severely restrict asset forfeiture. Furthermore, in even more shocking news, Ricketts signed it. Is this all cover for some other heinous shit that isn't getting reported? Have I crossed over into bizarroland?

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

The death penalty thing was actually a bipartisan alliance, between progressives and some far religious right members ,who it offended their religious beliefs and/or their view of the role of government. I wouldn't read anything into it. Dunno about the asset forfeiture

[brvheart 1,752]

Are there any political parties who are pro-asset forfeiture? As far as I know, everyone hates it except police unions; because hey! Free money.

[Scrim 115]

Are there any political parties who are pro-asset forfeiture? As far as I know, everyone hates it except police unions; because hey! Free money.

 

No, but we're incapable of fixing anything in this country anymore.

It will be interesting when it all finally breaks down. I thought we had a good chance of it in 2008.

[brvheart 1,752]

We nailed the Hope part. We just missed a little on the Change.

[FCP Bob 1,312]

Fort McMurray - Holy Shit

 

[FCP Bob 1,312]

[scuudagouch 15]

There was never any hope or change in 2008 - just a pipe dream by people wanting to vote for a minority for the first time! Congrats, that worked out really well.

[scuudagouch 15]

Damn Bob, where is all the snow?

[Scrim 115]

We nailed the Hope part. We just missed a little on the Change.

 

I wasn't even talking about Hussien.

 

I was talking about the economic collapse bringing us very, very close to some kind of major hitting of a reset button. Instead, we elected Obama.

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

Kaitlyn Jenner is considering transitioning back to Bruce. Totally sane.