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Bad Play Or Just Unlucky?


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4/11, top 9 pays. 26$ 90 ko tourney.feral_cow_icon.gifYour converted hand, now with more cowbell.Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em t1000/t2000 ante t250 - 5 playersCO: t28,393 Button: t18,827 SB: t20,781 (Hero)BB: t16,480 UTG: t12,010 Preflop: (t4,250) Hero is SB with 9c.gif9d.gif (5 players)UTG folds, CO raises to t8,250, Button folds, Hero raises to t20,531, and is all in, BB folds, CO calls t12,281Flop: (t44,312) 2d.gif7h.gifJc.gif (2 players)Turn: (t44,312) Ad.gif (2 players)River: (t44,312) 5c.gif (2 players)CO showed Ts.gifTh.gif, and won (44,312) with a pair of TensHero showed 9c.gif9d.gif, and lost with a pair of NinesCO won t44,312

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Well during the hand, it seemed super standard to shove 99 here but after the hand was over, I had my doubts (I'm probably being result oriented here). CO was chip leader and hadn't been raising for almost 2 orbits. He raised pot (>3x) which left him with almost no fold equity. I don't think he would raise that much on a steal attempt close to the bubble. Considering this, I think his range is kinda narrow but the question is how narrow ? ( I don't really know what range to assign him here)

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on the bubble depending on the player i think we can fold 4's and 5's unless we have him noted as being able to open fold too much. this is bc his opening range should be very tight ot bubble here, i would say him pushing his stack in here is generally going to be a lot weaker then him opening bc he should never be open folding to a push here. this hand is totally standard shove for you. i think AJ starts to get marginal. yah i probably fold AJ.

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on the bubble depending on the player i think we can fold 4's and 5's unless we have him noted as being able to open fold too much. this is bc his opening range should be very tight ot bubble here, i would say him pushing his stack in here is generally going to be a lot weaker then him opening bc he should never be open folding to a push here. this hand is totally standard shove for you. i think AJ starts to get marginal. yah i probably fold AJ.
you shove 99 but not AJ ? don't quite get your logic here.
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  • 3 weeks later...

I dont know that "Standard" plays apply here. Its very player dependent and having a feel for why he's raising so much is critical. Without reads, youve got very little fold equity once he commits that much of his stack, so how does 99 play hot and cold against a real hand. I dont have stove on this computer, but id guess that youre right on the border vs 77+, AJ+. On the bubble against the big stack I wouldnt go any lower than 88 unless he's super aggro or cashing is totally meaningless to you, and then Id stretch it no lower than 66.

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  • 1 year later...

I would probably lay this hand down. You're currently on 2nd position and having a decent chance ending in the top 3. Villian have been playing tight lately and now makes a suspicious bet of 4×> I would just wait for better situations to pick up some blinds or double up when its needed.

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