I Can't Win Anymore...

[UncleHoot 0]

I've been moving up in limits, grinding (and crushing) the $6.50 and $16 18-man turbo's for the last few weeks. I was even moving into the $27's, and seemed to be holding my own really well. Until this week.Now I'm down almost $1,000 (half my bankroll) over the last 250 games. My ROI at the 6.50's and $16's had been consistently near 20 percent. Ok, so maybe I wasn't that good after all, and maybe my sample size was too small (a few hundred games in the 16's). But now I'm playing a mix of $16's and $6.50's, and I'm averaging something like -$3.50 per game (avg buy-in around $13) for this week. My ROI is something like -30% for this last week. (My $16 ROI is still at about 5% overall, though... ) I've tried to analyze my play as well as I can, but if anyone can tell me about some (preferably free) tools to analyze hand histories, I'd love to hear it. I've been trying to "play through it", but it seems like the bad luck is never ending. Then add to it, the fact that I keep running into insanely tight play at the final table, with blinds often hitting 800 with 7-8 players left (avg stack around 3,500). I was in one where blinds hit 1200 with 9 players! Of course, that only lasted about 2 minutes before it was down to 4 (I busted), but still... I can name 2 bad beats early in the week in a $27 that almost certainly cost me $100 each, and I tilted a little bit which also cost me. But, geez, I can name a brazillian places where I sucked out, too. The $27's are out for now, and I'm about to hang up on the $16's as well. Maybe I'm just not as good as I thought I was.Am I still within the realm of statistical variance? At the $16 level, I would have said a $500 swing was certainly possible. Maybe I'm just at 2 or 3 standard deviations, or something...? I suppose it's possible to flip a coin 250 times and have it come up tails 170 times, and maybe that's just what's happening here. Or maybe I just suck now. Is there any way to tell the difference? How can I find out if my 60%'s are hitting 40% of the time, and my coinflips are hitting 30% of the time when I'm in, or near the money? It seems that way, but I may be deluding myself.Sorry for the whining... But if anyone, especially any grinders, has any words of advice (or encouragement), I'd like to hear it. Things have gotten so bad that I'm wondering if God is trying to teach me some life-lesson or something. If so, is it "poker is bad!" Or is it "Never give up!" Or maybe "Take a long break!" Or... Pokerstars realized I was running to good, and pulled back the throttle... ;)I know, I know... BBFIDTS. Move this if you must, but I'm not talking individual hands here. I'm (hopefully) talking about how to cope and analyze what's really going on. I think it's something that could be useful to anyone who grinds the SNG's.

[JSpencer 0]

Just to actually provide some input. From what I've been told, there have been much worse downswingsat that level than $1000.Try taking a break for a little while. Play some other games, it will help you take your mind off of it. Or you could just quit forever, like me, and save yourself a lot of headache.

[tbrick412 0]

Maybe I'm just at 2 or 3 standard deviations, or something...? I suppose it's possible to flip a coin 250 times and have it come up tails 170 times, and maybe that's just what's happenin here.

at the $16 level a $500 swing is probably way less than 1 standard deviation off expectation.

[GWCGWC 83]

Google 'ICM' and 'sit and go'. This will provide you with links to an insane amount of good information.gl

[TrueAce13 18]

just keep working on your game. Go over your HH in pt3 or hem. Get training sites and stuff. Don't let the variance of the game affect your play. Drop down in stakes to get your confidence back and to build a little better roll if you think you should.

[GWCGWC 83]

oh, and email stars to ask for hyper sngs. Nothing cures the variance blues like a game that starts with >10BB's and blinds that go up like a rocket ship. While your at it, make sure you ask for a $11 or $12 turbo level. It's absurd you have to jump almost 3x your buyin just to play the blind speed you prefer.

[lurbz 2]

oh, and email stars to ask for hyper sngs. Nothing cures the variance blues like a game that starts with >10BB's and blinds that go up like a rocket ship. While your at it, make sure you ask for a $11 or $12 turbo level. It's absurd you have to jump almost 3x your buyin just to play the blind speed you prefer.

^^ THATalso, $1k is nothing tbh. I just finally got out of a $3.5k downswing (at its worst point) w/ Av. BI of $10. Sucks but it happens.

[sasa777 0]

yes I understand you completely but you are still probably on tilt, long oneand I read once somewhere this sentence, and it help me : if you think that half table trying to bluff you, you are probably tilting

[HighwayStar 8]

Everyone goes through the "I can't win any more" state of mind from time to time. I've lost track of the number of times it's happened to me. You should come out of it a better player every time.Also 20% ROI multitabling $16 turbo 18s probably isn't sustainable. I think the very best regs are around 15% and most around 8-10%. A $1k downswing is probably not too uncommon. You're gonna have to play a couple of thousand games at least to get a reasonmable idea of what your long term ROI might be.

[UncleHoot 0]

Thanks for all the help. I'm going to do some googling as suggested, among other things.I think I'm gonna take some time off, maybe play some big MTT's now and then (at the $5 to $20 level). Perhaps I'll return to the SNG's in October. Actually, maybe I just need to concentrate on MTT's more. I've had deep runs, that I often seem to bust when I have trapped someone drawing to 2-4 outs on the river. Some day, that won't happen.My goal, at the beginning of August, was to reach 5,000 VPP's and clear the $50 bonus by the end of the year. If I had a downswing, I'd stumble through it. Well, I hit 5,000 VPP's and got my bonus this weekend, so goal achieved. Plus, I bought the $50 3,000 FPP bonus. That's was nice...I definitely need to build my confidence back up. Plus, I haven't been sleeping well, which is probably unrelated, but then again, maybe it is related.

[outsider13 0]

I know it's already been said but when you are going through a downswing, you need to review more to make sure you are playing right. Get sng wizard and review your tournaments and make sure you are playing properly. Not only is it a good learning experience, it's also good to confirm that you are indeed running bad and not playing bad.

[JustLikeNegs 1]

Thanks for all the help. I'm going to do some googling as suggested, among other things.I think I'm gonna take some time off, maybe play some big MTT's now and then (at the $5 to $20 level). Perhaps I'll return to the SNG's in October. Actually, maybe I just need to concentrate on MTT's more. I've had deep runs, that I often seem to bust when I have trapped someone drawing to 2-4 outs on the river. Some day, that won't happen.My goal, at the beginning of August, was to reach 5,000 VPP's and clear the $50 bonus by the end of the year. If I had a downswing, I'd stumble through it. Well, I hit 5,000 VPP's and got my bonus this weekend, so goal achieved. Plus, I bought the $50 3,000 FPP bonus. That's was nice...I definitely need to build my confidence back up. Plus, I haven't been sleeping well, which is probably unrelated, but then again, maybe it is related.

stick to sngs. if they tilt you, god knows what mtts will do to you. gl

[TrueAce13 18]

stick to sngs. if they tilt you, god knows what mtts will do to you. gl

100% this...if you wanna switch your game, learn cash

[Acekob 0]

stick to sngs. if they tilt you, god knows what mtts will do to you. gl

Ask bingobaboon for further input.

[UncleHoot 0]

stick to sngs. if they tilt you, god knows what mtts will do to you. gl

LOL I know what you mean! The play in the $10 MTT's is often unbelievably bad, and I always seem to end up with a big "WTF???" I used to do a lot of MTT's, but not so much in the last 4 years. And if I stick to MTT's, it's less likely that I will lose $300 in a single day, and that's mostly what I'm concerned about. I've been good with bankroll management principles, so I don't expect to go broke any time soon by playing $5- $15 MTT's.

[UncleHoot 0]

I know it's already been said but when you are going through a downswing, you need to review more to make sure you are playing right. Get sng wizard and review your tournaments and make sure you are playing properly. Not only is it a good learning experience, it's also good to confirm that you are indeed running bad and not playing bad.

Yeah, I've read about that before and was like, "I don't need this! I run like God!" But today, I was just looking at it again. Sounds like you can get a 30 day free trial. I will probably go for it.EDIT: It's worth noting that this forum has changed over the past couple years. I expected 10 responses like "Give up." "TP/MM" "Nope, you suck." "Let me know next time you play." etc. LOL Thanks for feeling my pain.

[lurbz 2]

Yeah, I've read about that before and was like, "I don't need this! I run like God!" But today, I was just looking at it again. Sounds like you can get a 30 day free trial. I will probably go for it.EDIT: It's worth noting that this forum has changed over the past couple years. I expected 10 responses like "Give up." "TP/MM" "Nope, you suck." "Let me know next time you play." etc. LOL Thanks for feeling my pain.

+1 SNGwizard, PT3 and HEM free trials might help too (dunno if you've used them, if you haven't, don't do them simultaneously)

[Tehtoe 3]

LOL I know what you mean! The play in the $10 MTT's is often unbelievably bad, and I always seem to end up with a big "WTF???" I used to do a lot of MTT's, but not so much in the last 4 years. And if I stick to MTT's, it's less likely that I will lose $300 in a single day, and that's mostly what I'm concerned about. I've been good with bankroll management principles, so I don't expect to go broke any time soon by playing $5- $15 MTT's.

lol

[UncleHoot 0]

lol

I'm talking about the $5 to $15 big MTT's, not the SnG MTT's, you can quickly go broke in the $12 180 mans. With only a handful of those each day, and me only playing in the evenings, It would be difficult to lose more than 50 bucks in an evening.

[Acekob 0]

I'm talking about the $5 to $15 big MTT's, not the SnG MTT's, you can quickly go broke in the $12 180 mans. With only a handful of those each day, and me only playing in the evenings, It would be difficult to lose more than 50 bucks in an evening.

Bro, I don't think you should lecture That Toe Guy on MTT variance On the other hand, you will (in most cases) get those very rare and few days which are just amazing!

[UncleHoot 0]

Bro, I don't think you should lecture That Toe Guy on MTT variance On the other hand, you will (in most cases) get those very rare and few days which are just amazing!

No... I'm not saying that MTT's have less variance. They have HUUUUUUGE variance. I never said that, and never meant to imply that. Generally speaking, your variance goes up when the number of players goes up. I was just saying that I can most likely get a lot more play per dollar, and that with $1200, I shouldn't go broke any time soon. Then later on, I'll try my luck at the SNG's again.

[offset 0]

I was going to say it's probably just a downswing yada yada but this really stuck out at me, indicating that something may be wrong with your play. As someone who can beat the pokerstars 6 and 9 man sngs at any level I love it when play gets tight. There will often be a point in the tournament where it is correct to open push 100% of your hands, usually because people play too tight. If you are not drooling when play gets tight you are probably playing too tight. The most common problem that break even players have is that they play too tight once the blinds get high.Oh and BTW, for what it's worth i have never had a -40 buyin downswing, or anything even approaching that.

[areyawell 0]

Variance is a pain but it looks like you had good variance at start and now running as good anymore. I think you should switch to the nine man turbo's, or start multi tabling NON-turbo 18 man tournaments because variance does NOT matter in them!! They can go on for two hours but multi table enough of them and you'll never go back to turbo. hope that helps

[UncleHoot 0]

It may be that I play too tight in some places. I'm actually doing some reading on that issue. But by that same token, it doesn't make sense to call with Q/4o when someone has already shoved in front of you, which is often the case. Actually, the more I've been thinking about this, I think I used to be more loose late in the game, but after I started the downswing, I may have tightened up too much.I've never had anything even close to -40 either. In fact, that's what I liked about these 18 man turbo's. The variance was much lower than the 45's and 180's.

[outsider13 0]

There won't be many cases where you will be short and calling with rags unless you are getting better than 2:1. The key is not passing up shove spots with any two cards.