Busted Draw Or Value?

[the_real_prof 0]

1/2 at Mirage.I am playing about $200 deep, Villain playing about $400.I am middle position with AK and make it $11. Late position calls, SB, BB call.Flop: Q 5d 9d. SB check, BB check, I bet $20, late position flats. SB, BB fold.Turn: (Q 5d 9d) 8. I check, Late position checks.River: (Q 5d 9d 8) Q. I check, Late position insta bets $26. I tank and flat.What percentage of the time is he trying to steal with a busted draw and what percentage of the time is this a value bet?

[KingJames 11]

Do you have the A of diamonds?Is the person young or old?Live reeedz?

[the_real_prof 0]

Do you have the A of diamonds?Is the person young or old?Live reeedz?

I do not have the A of diamonds. Older. He didn't seem like a player capable of a value bet. Live reads were minimal as I was the 9 seat and he was the 1.

[custom36 4]

So the pot is $84 when he makes the $26 bet, giving you 4:1 to call? If you don't think he's often capable of making a value bet, then you should call this. Just looking at how the hand played out, though, it feels like he has something and I think folding was the correct call.You should've bet more on the flop, though.Does anyone lead out the river, given the check-behind on the turn?

[KingJames 11]

Without the Ad, I don't think I'd c-bet multiway on that board. We will get called by any Q a lot of 9s and yeah, prob some 77 type hands too.If you do c-bet; bet more than 40% pot. $20 into $44 is not gonna get 77 to fold. So we either have to make a hand or double barrel live fish who hate to fold.As played.. meh he can value bet a 9 and a Q obv... but I don't hate the call bc it's really small but that's how older nits prob get value with a Q... so yeah, I'd prob just c/f flop

[KingJames 11]

Does anyone lead out the river, given the check-behind on the turn?

And what hand are we repping when we bet small on a coordinated board, check back turn and bet river when draws brick?edit: not trying to be a dick, im honestly asking if you play any value hands in this manner?

[Ninja Ace 1]

doublepostaments

[Ninja Ace 1]

instabets live usually indicate strength, or the opponent perceiving himself to be strong... I agree knowing if you hold the Ad helps this decision bc if you do it's a really quick muck... and noticing that the straight draw got there, it's a muck... the fact that i've yet to see a value bluff live makes me think it's a muck...i mean i'm all for picking off draws with A high, especially the nut no pair... but everything seems to be leaning against you

[rrumsey 0]

mmuucckkkkk

[custom36 4]

And what hand are we repping when we bet small on a coordinated board, check back turn and bet river when draws brick?edit: not trying to be a dick, im honestly asking if you play any value hands in this manner?

Q with a weak kicker, JJ, TT

[mtdesmoines 3]

1/2 at Mirage.I am playing about $200 deep, Villain playing about $400.I am middle position with AK and make it $11. Late position calls, SB, BB call.Flop: Q 5d 9d. SB check, BB check, I bet $20, late position flats. SB, BB fold.Turn: (Q 5d 9d) 8. I check, Late position checks.River: (Q 5d 9d 8) Q. I check, Late position insta bets $26. I tank and flat.What percentage of the time is he trying to steal with a busted draw and what percentage of the time is this a value bet?

This is a steal <10% of the time.

[Biff Goods 0]

This is a steal <10% of the time.

[the_real_prof 0]

This is a steal <10% of the time.

You obv don't like my call then. That being said, what are we putting him on? I would think he protects top pair/trips on the flop/turn with the flush/straight draws out there. Why flat the flop and check back if he has a value hand? I play a flush draw similarly in my spot, he should be protecting.I could see him maybe having flopped a set and turned the boat and playing it this way, but not 90+% of the time.

[Ninja Ace 1]

there are a lot of one pair (technically 2 but meh) hands he can make this small v-bet with after you take a give up line... if you had like paired the eight this would be a tougher decision

[mtdesmoines 3]

there are a lot of one pair (technically 2 but meh) hands he can make this small v-bet with after you take a give up line... if you had like paired the eight this would be a tougher decision

There are also a lot of paired hands he thinks he's "bluffing" with.

[BaseJester 1]

Check / evaluate flop.After betting the flop and getting one caller, fire a second barrel on the turn. Unless the villain has moss growing on him, call the river, imho. By checking the turn on a coordinated board, we make our hand look very weak.

[Ninja Ace 1]

After betting the flop and getting one caller, fire a second barrel on the turn.

We have very little pot equity, and an in position caller is murdering that board. Firing the second barrel on that particular turn card is terrible imo. And actually, I can't think of a turn card that would be good to fire a second shell on unless we held the Ad and it was a diamond.

[BaseJester 1]

We have very little pot equity, and an in position caller is murdering that board. Firing the second barrel on that particular turn card is terrible imo. And actually, I can't think of a turn card that would be good to fire a second shell on unless we held the Ad and it was a diamond.

Our equity is often crap when called, but the probability that he will be able to call has gone down when the queen falls. If he's drawing, he may be dissuaded by the paired board when we bet, but happily steal with that same draw if we check. The chance that he caught top pair has just gone down because the second queen is on the board. If we can't fire a second barrel, we shouldn't C-bet the flop.

[Ninja Ace 1]

Am I misreading the board? I thought there was a Q on the flop... the turn was an eight, and the river paired the Q...if the order is different than I'm seeing, firing at a queen turn is perfectly fine

[BaseJester 1]

Am I misreading the board? I thought there was a Q on the flop... the turn was an eight, and the river paired the Q...if the order is different than I'm seeing, firing at a queen turn is perfectly fine

Sorry, I'm stupid.

[TraptSteve 0]

pretty standard fold on the river & i probably do not cbet this flop in a 4-way pot.The villain can confidently bet much of his range here vs your line. Even something like 8-7.Or just go for a duRRR-esqe valuecheckraise river bluff.

[shynepo3 0]

instabets live usually indicate strength, or the opponent perceiving himself to be strong... I agree knowing if you hold the Ad helps this decision bc if you do it's a really quick muck... and noticing that the straight draw got there, it's a muck... the fact that i've yet to see a value bluff live makes me think it's a muck...i mean i'm all for picking off draws with A high, especially the nut no pair... but everything seems to be leaning against you

why is it a quick muck if we hold Ad?