Dubey 1,035 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 $24 on Edmonton @ +188 $10 on Calgary @ -110 I'm betting on the two Alberta teams, how did we get to this point. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 don't worry Arp, win % is still only 43% re: Canes last night. I think i should have known they would lose our bet, and yet still get a point. douchebags! Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Pittsburgh could totally lose tonight. Such a trap game with them struggling, getting Malkin back, Hall and Pouliot out... every single thing points to the Pens destroying Edmonton, but I bet it's at least close. Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Feb 4th results: $24 on Edmonton @ +188 LOSS $24 $10 on Calgary @ -110 WIN $9.09 Total: LOSS $14.91 FEB 5TH bets. Getting them in early because I've got a busy afternoon $20 on DET @ -115 $16 on BUF @ +248 $28 on FLA @ +110 $8 on OTT @ +122 $4 on VAN @ -139 $28 on NSH @ -123 Link to post Share on other sites
Ottawa_Biatch 288 Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Feb 4th results: $24 on Edmonton @ +188 LOSS $24 $10 on Calgary @ -110 WIN $9.09 Total: LOSS $14.91 FEB 5TH bets. Getting them in early because I've got a busy afternoon $20 on DET @ -115 $16 on BUF @ +248 $28 on FLA @ +110 $8 on OTT @ +122 $4 on VAN @ -139 $28 on NSH @ -123 Why do you have a busy afternoon? Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 reading this thread mostly Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 added a few more bets at the end: $20 on DET @ -115 WON $17.39 $16 on BUF @ +248 LOSS $16 $28 on FLA @ +110 WIN $30.80 $8 on OTT @ +131 LOSS $8 $8 on OTT @ +122 LOSS $8 $4 on VAN @ -139 LOSS $4 $28 on NSH @ -123 LOSS $28 $4 on TB @ -105 WIN $3.81 $2 on PHI @ +106 WIN $2.12 TOTAL: LOSS $14 Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Don't have time to post all the bets but night hinges on Winnipeg($44 bet) Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 $44 on WPG $12 on NJD $4 on cgy $12 on CBJ $18 on WSH Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Sigh Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Yesterday's Results $44 on Winnipeg @+135 LOSS $44 (another heartbreaking OT loss on a big bet at + money) $12 on NJD @ -147 WIN $8.18 $18 on WSH @ -128 WIN $14.06 $12 on CBJ @ +152 WIN $18.52 $4 on CGY @ +108 LOSS $4 TOTAL: Loss $7.54 Locking in tonight's bets early because I'm driving to calgary during the day and won't have computer access: $12 on NSH @ -140 $8 on Carolina @ +162 $38 on Ottawa @ -160 $26 on Buffalo @ +201 $10 on NJD @ +175 Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I would fade Nashville or stay away 20-3-1 at home. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I like to see the results with even units of betting. I like the system but there is so little difference sometime between a win and a loss that missing the units part of a win is major variance. It's almost like you need to get two things right , the gsme and the size of bet. I like the guy though Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Bigger edge bigger bet. I think it works out to a bigger profit over the long run Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Again not knocking the system per se , but tough to make money betting heavy favourites. Betting dogs at value is key. Like Winnipeg last night was great. Big dog and you are a coin flip at the end. Ya you lose those sometime but you would take it every game to have a dog in that spot Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 here's his "early" look. I won't be placing any bets till the afternoon updates. Often a goalie change can affect the win percentages fairly significantly, so the afternoon picks will be a lot more accurate. https://twitter.com/...653007033434112 For some strange reason it seems everytime a back-up is playing they do well. I would love to see w/l of when a back-up vs the other teams starter is this year. What's this guys system any reason for his bets? I am on NYR this afternoon way to good of a price to pass on. Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 It's a computer model that makes the predictions based on a lot of factors. Don't know all the details Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Yesterday's Results $44 on Winnipeg @+135 LOSS $44 (another heartbreaking OT loss on a big bet at + money) $12 on NJD @ -147 WIN $8.18 $18 on WSH @ -128 WIN $14.06 $12 on CBJ @ +152 WIN $18.52 $4 on CGY @ +108 LOSS $4 TOTAL: Loss $7.54 Locking in tonight's bets early because I'm driving to calgary during the day and won't have computer access: $12 on NSH @ -140 $8 on Carolina @ +162 $38 on Ottawa @ -160 $26 on Buffalo @ +201 $10 on NJD @ +175 Added $20 on Boston @-157 And another $10 on NJD @ +210 Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 It's a computer model that makes the predictions based on a lot of factors. Don't know all the details Nice hit on the Nashville game, a win is a win regardless of odds. It surprised me how many games every night fit into this system, and the array of selection makes it very interesting to me. Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Had a winning night last night thanks to Carolina and Buffalo. Can't post results till later since I'm on my phone. Lots of bets today as well. Big one on Florida Winnipeg and Buffalo Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Saturday results: $10 on NJD @ +210 LOSS $10 $10 ON NJD @ +175 LOSS $10 $20 ON BOS @ -157 WIN $12.74 $12 ON NSH @ -140 WIN $8.57 $8 ON CAR @ +162 WIN $12.96 $38 ON OTT @ -160 LOSS $38 $26 ON BUF @ +201 WIN $52.26 $8 ON VAN @ -105 WIN $7.62 TOTAL: WIN $36.15 Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Sunday Results: $2 ON MTL @ +127 WIN $2.52 $8 ON DAL @ +137 WIN $10.96 $12 ON TBL @ -119 WIN $10.96 $32 ON WPG @ -164 WIN $19.51 $28 ON BUF @ +217 LOSS $28 $4 ON STL @ -119 LOSS $4 $38 ON FLA @ -102 LOSS $38 TOTAL: LOSS $4.53 Panthers game was a heartbreaker. Watched the first 2 periods, Florida dominated, and was up 2-0. Had to drive home from calgary so didn't watch the third. SOmehow they outshot Nashvilel 15-4 but allowed 2 goals, then of course lost in a shootout. would have been a +$70 day. oh well. That's 5 times this month the team I was betting on gave up a lead in the last 5 minutes of a game then lost in OT or a shootout. Still up $52.65 for the month though. Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Sunday Results: $2 ON MTL @ +127 WIN $2.52 $8 ON DAL @ +137 WIN $10.96 $12 ON TBL @ -119 WIN $10.96 $32 ON WPG @ -164 WIN $19.51 $28 ON BUF @ +217 LOSS $28 $4 ON STL @ -119 LOSS $4 $38 ON FLA @ -102 LOSS $38 TOTAL: LOSS $4.53 Panthers game was a heartbreaker. Watched the first 2 periods, Florida dominated, and was up 2-0. Had to drive home from calgary so didn't watch the third. SOmehow they outshot Nashvilel 15-4 but allowed 2 goals, then of course lost in a shootout. would have been a +$70 day. oh well. That's 5 times this month the team I was betting on gave up a lead in the last 5 minutes of a game then lost in OT or a shootout. Still up $52.65 for the month though. I watched most of the 3rd, and all of OT/SO because of the bet.(following his charts on twtr now) Crappy loss, they were better at all parts of the game except the shootout. It was a great OT. Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 great new tool for the NHL model. enter up to date lines (or the lines for your own non-pinnacle book) and get the up to date bet unit. http://cheapseatanalytics.com/nhlmodel-kelly-criterion-calculator/ just 2 small bets at current lines, I'm locking them in. $4 on Arizona @ +253 $6 on CBJ @ +129 Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Monday Results $4 on Arizona @ +253 WIN $10.12 $6 on CBJ @ +129 LOSS $6 TOTAL: WIN $4.12 Tuesday's Bets: $4 on TBL @ +138 $10 on ARI @ +260 $22 on TML @ +126 $22 on BUF @ +157 $44 on FLA @ +108 Come on Florida one time. Been running bad on big bets and good on small bets in february. NHL model is also recommending a bet on WPG over Minny tonight but I'm not doing it. Link to post Share on other sites
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