wsox8 10 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Domestic or Champion's League? http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2011/au...ons-league-uefa Link to post Share on other sites
wsox8 10 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Its a Domestic League game.Fenerbahce is one of three Turkish powerhouses..They are well known in the European stage.They did have some scandal last year in Turkey with match fixing.I m happy..I won today.Serge, gonna buy me a new car? Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Serge, gonna buy me a new car?No..$25 doesnt buy many cars. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Look for the Winnipeg Jets to get on the board tonight. They were called out last game, and facing a banged up Penguin squad.Make the final Winnipeg 4 Pittsburgh 2.Winnipeg +110Been on a nice little streak in hockey.It seems so easy when you can pick winners.Onto the next game. Link to post Share on other sites
Dread Aidan 8 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Cross post! Guy wins 15-team parlay.$5 to win $100,000. Link to post Share on other sites
Babying 613 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 For some reason I have the itch to play Proline. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 For some reason I have the itch to play Proline.You should probably get that checked out. Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 For some reason I have the itch to play Proline.pssssssssst.....your not gonna win $100k on your next $5 bet.but ya, I got the same thing now.oh and Serge....niec bet on Fener. Who were they playing? Ntsama is obv African, you guys clearly dont watch enough football. You would know all kinds of African names by now, and know many have French first names. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 pssssssssst.....your not gonna win $100k on your next $5 bet.but ya, I got the same thing now.oh and Serge....niec bet on Fener. Who were they playing? Ntsama is obv African, you guys clearly dont watch enough football. You would know all kinds of African names by now, and know many have French first names. Some weird team..I bet them cause i wanted action and they are the team that I grew up idolizing growing up in Turkey.Paid off.Some sick bets came in yesterday..Winnipeg, Florida and Anaheim..ALL for plus money.Picked a few live dogs today again...Probably will get smoked.Philly in regulation.Florida (YES FLORIDA) Huge huge overlayEdmontonStlouisDO NOT, I repeat DO NOT Parlay these.Huge payouts , but not to be parlayed. Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Some weird team..I bet them cause i wanted action and they are the team that I grew up idolizing growing up in Turkey.Philly in regulation.Florida (YES FLORIDA) Huge huge overlayEdmontonStlouisI forgot you were a Fener guy. You and your teams in blue.I like FLA tonight. I also like EDM. I think LA beats St.Louis, and Ottawa suprises Philly. Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Can someone explain to me why a parlay is a sucker bet, outside of the obvious, that is raises your variance a shitload.over an infinite sample size, isn't EV the same on a parlay and a regular bet? Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Can someone explain to me why a parlay is a sucker bet, outside of the obvious, that is raises your variance a shitload.over an infinite sample size, isn't EV the same on a parlay and a regular bet?simple fact that its hard to get more than 50 percent of games right.In my opinion its also stupid betting favourites. Yesterday I bet Florida +145 and Anaheim +170...I can go 2-2 and make a good profit..In some cases I can go 1-2 and not lose.If I like 4 of those games i mentioned...to go 4-0 is very hard...I need to go 2-2 to make money..IMO. Link to post Share on other sites
Jason12 0 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Some weird team..I bet them cause i wanted action and they are the team that I grew up idolizing growing up in Turkey.Paid off.Some sick bets came in yesterday..Winnipeg, Florida and Anaheim..ALL for plus money.Picked a few live dogs today again...Probably will get smoked.Philly in regulation.Florida (YES FLORIDA) Huge huge overlayEdmontonStlouisDO NOT, I repeat DO NOT Parlay these.Huge payouts , but not to be parlayed.Do you use sportswagers.ca for your picks? Im not calling you out or anything, I also have been using the site for a while. They have good picks and even if I disagree they have a pretty detailed explanation for all of them which is pretty nice. Not to mention all the starting goalies which can be a pain to track down. Are there any other sites like this that actually have good advice? Personally I dont take the advice as gospel but its good to hear an explanation if your on the fence on anything. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Can someone explain to me why a parlay is a sucker bet, outside of the obvious, that is raises your variance a shitload.over an infinite sample size, isn't EV the same on a parlay and a regular bet?Is the juice increased? I'm not really sure how it works, but usually it's just a multiple of the individual lines right? So wouldn't you factor more juice out of it? Blah, dunno, I forget high school math. As long as the juice remains constant, then it is just a variance thing, and therefore doesn't affect EV in any way.simple fact that its hard to get more than 50 percent of games right.In my opinion its also stupid betting favourites. Yesterday I bet Florida +145 and Anaheim +170...I can go 2-2 and make a good profit..In some cases I can go 1-2 and not lose.If I like 4 of those games i mentioned...to go 4-0 is very hard...I need to go 2-2 to make money..IMO.You're making really strange generalizations.You make a bet if your perception of their actual chance of winning is better than what the sportsbook indicates by their set lines. It doesn't matter if you go 5-1 on a night or 1-5, if your net expected value is positive. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Do you use sportswagers.ca for your picks? Im not calling you out or anything, I also have been using the site for a while. They have good picks and even if I disagree they have a pretty detailed explanation for all of them which is pretty nice. Not to mention all the starting goalies which can be a pain to track down. Are there any other sites like this that actually have good advice? Personally I dont take the advice as gospel but its good to hear an explanation if your on the fence on anything.Yes ..A lot of my picks are sportswagers....Edmonton and Winnipeg were my own .By the way Sportswagers.ca owner is my buddy Brian. His brother is Randall the Handle.Brian is in the AHL.He does really well..ANd he has a winning record over the last 5 years..All documented..He did have a bad baseball year though. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Do you use sportswagers.ca for your picks? Im not calling you out or anything, I also have been using the site for a while. They have good picks and even if I disagree they have a pretty detailed explanation for all of them which is pretty nice. Not to mention all the starting goalies which can be a pain to track down. Are there any other sites like this that actually have good advice? Personally I dont take the advice as gospel but its good to hear an explanation if your on the fence on anything. http://goaliepost.com/index.php Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Is the juice increased? I'm not really sure how it works, but usually it's just a multiple of the individual lines right? So wouldn't you factor more juice out of it? Blah, dunno, I forget high school math. As long as the juice remains constant, then it is just a variance thing, and therefore doesn't affect EV in any way.You're making really strange generalizations.You make a bet if your perception of their actual chance of winning is better than what the sportsbook indicates by their set lines. It doesn't matter if you go 5-1 on a night or 1-5, if your net expected value is positive.I m just saying that you could lose money going 3-2 or even 3-1 if you pick stupid favourites...Live dogs and value is where you make money. Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I m just saying that you could lose money going 3-2 or even 3-1 if you pick stupid favourites...Live dogs and value is where you make money.whats a "live" dog?where is Brian's hockey record documented? Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I m just saying that you could lose money going 3-2 or even 3-1 if you pick stupid favourites...Live dogs and value is where you make money.Your win-loss record is as relevant to your gambling success as what I had for breakfast. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 whats a "live" dog?where is Brian's hockey record documented?There is a link that says picks history. His record(unit wins) is documented for the last 5 years.( i believe its 5)Everyone out there claims they make money..Only Brian has his record on there for everyone to see.Overall he is a big winner. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Arp..A live dog IMO is a dog(based on the line) who you think has amazing value. Sure Washington might beat Florida today, but the odds on Florida (a team that is playing amazing) is worth the bet.Just like the Jets last night. At home were paying plus money. Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Arp..A live dog IMO is a dog(based on the line) who you think has amazing value. Sure Washington might beat Florida today, but the odds on Florida (a team that is playing amazing) is worth the bet.Just like the Jets last night. At home were paying plus money.so, it just means a underdog you really like? ok Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 so, it just means a underdog you really like? okA dog that has great value.There is no sweeter feeling than cashing a +180 bet...Or nothing worse than betting a favourite at -150 and they lose 5-1..I think(my opinion) betting favourites is a surefire way to lose money.No one in their right mind would bet Florida against Washington tonight..But I have.A better one is the Oilers at Calgary..The Oilers are +160...I dont get this..They looked really good and Calgary has looked brutal...Sure Calgary might win, but +160 on a team that is playing better is a good bet IMO. Link to post Share on other sites
FCP Bob 1,312 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 A dog that has great value.There is no sweeter feeling than cashing a +180 bet...Or nothing worse than betting a favourite at -150 and they lose 5-1..I think(my opinion) betting favourites is a surefire way to lose money.No one in their right mind would bet Florida against Washington tonight..But I have.A better one is the Oilers at Calgary..The Oilers are +160...I dont get this..They looked really good and Calgary has looked brutal...Sure Calgary might win, but +160 on a team that is playing better is a good bet IMO.I have a small wager on Edmonton tonight. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Serge, what if it's say Toronto (best team ever, for the sake of this example) vs Montreal (worst team ever, for the sake of this example). You think Toronto wins this game 4/5 times, but the line for Toronto is -200. Are you telling me you're not betting that because Toronto is the favorite and it's not as fun as betting on "live dogs'? Link to post Share on other sites
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