Risk Vs Reward

[PillyPill 0]

Hello. So I am having issues again in the middle of tournaments. In 45 mans, I have been finishing in 20-25th, and in MTTs, have been lasting about two-three hours, and then finishing an hour away from bubble. The way it has been happening is really one of two ways:1. Play tight early on, don’t get a hand to chip up, and eventually have to do a marginal push to try and get some chips.2. Get chips early, get around the mid mark, and have someone who has half my stack push preflop in a position where I know I am a favorite, I call, and he hits his two cards.I would like to address the second one as that has been happening more frequently. What I am trying to find out from you guys is how do you level the risk vs. reward on positions like that? Do you call knowing that you are ahead more often than not, or do you fold thinking there will be a better time to make that play? For instance, say you are in BB with 4500 at 100/200. You get 99 and button insta-pushes for roughly 2000. You know he has probably two overs. Do you call or fold? And I know that it all depends, but in general terms, what do you think through on these hands? Thanks!

[jmbreslin 0]

If you're getting it in good and losing, there's nothing you can do to change that. You're making the right decisions and are just in the midst of a bad run. If you think there is a good chance you're ahead, to have to make the call. You can't pass up 54% edges in the hopes of getting a 70% edge later on. MTTs are all about taking advantage of these marginal spots and winning flips to build your stack.Focus more on the rest of your game prior to that point. Are you playing too tight early on and passing up good speculative opportunities? Are you staying too tight in the middle stages, afraid to put a "healthy" stack on the line? Not upping the aggression when the antes kick in?

[outsider13 0]

#1 - It happens. That's why we play a lot of these so it balances out. You aren't going to stack up in all of them.#2 - You pretty much call at the middle stages when you think you are ahead. If you lose, open up the next one. I mean, I think you are being results oriented here. You know for a fact that 45man+ are higher variance tournaments and the downswings can be abnormally high. I think in your example there, 99 crushes buttons range there. He's like 22+ A4+, etc. Why would you ever fold?

what do you think through on these hands? Thanks!

ZOMG, I has a pair, I call. EZ GAME.

[cashman 0]

Tough to answer really. I had it happen to me the other day. I had 14k w/pocket 10s about 2/3rds of the way into a 90 person tourney. Small stack went all in 1700, guy w/11k just called him, I came over the top all in hoping to isolate the small stack. The smooth caller called me w/AcKc and caught a flush. A couple of my friends were in the game and one thought it was perfectly reasonable for me to shove there, the other guy stated that he would have folded w/no money invested and knowing that I am probably flipping for a minimum of 1700. I don't know if I agree with him, but I could see his point. Both of these players are extremely good players. One plays small ball and is aggressive, the other of course is tight. It was interesting though that the two players whose games I respect the most, had opposing veiws. The guy that suggested folding is one of the most consistant players I have ever met and he simply likes to stay away from gambling situations if they are avoidable. If I hadn't seen how well he does in mtts and $5/$10 cash games I would disagree with him, but he is doing something right just based on his results.

[SwolyswoND 1]

Folding TT would be disastrous there. But only slightly more disastrous than folding 99 in OP's hypo.

[cashman 0]

Folding TT would be disastrous there. But only slightly more disastrous than folding 99 in OP's hypo.

I have to say I agree. I was stunned when he said he would have folded 10s. I know he is a tight player but I had no idea he was that tight. He does extremely well though. He finished around 35th in a WSOP event a couple of years ago and has cashed in a few others. He plays in a "league" where we send the top 3 guys in points to a $1500 WSOP event every year and he always gets in. He is a consistant winner at the local casino in some of the bigger buy in tourneys in the area. That and he is crushing it at the $5/$10 tables. I had no idea a player that tight could do so well. He does make excellent reads though and I think his overall approach is simply to avoid marginal situations. Still, I don't think anyone other than him would fold 10s in that spot.

[melaskins 0]

I think you keep doing what you are doing as far as searching for solutions. Reading these sites. Books. Audiobooks. Videos. If you are playing good but having a bad run you may just need to hit the reset button. One of the things that I do is I keep two accounts going. Most folks probably keep more than that but I just use two. I use one account to try to make money. I use the other account for steaming and experimenting. I believe that most of variance is self inflicted. We have a few hands that go bad and they stick with us and we try to force hands and administer some bad beats of our own. Which equals bad play on our own part. I went through a bad run a couple of months ago but didn't hurt my good account very bad. I really damaged my goofing around account though. But for me, that's okay. My serious account is continuing to grow.

[outsider13 0]

I think you keep doing what you are doing as far as searching for solutions. Reading these sites. Books. Audiobooks. Videos. If you are playing good but having a bad run you may just need to hit the reset button. One of the things that I do is I keep two accounts going. Most folks probably keep more than that but I just use two. I use one account to try to make money. I use the other account for steaming and experimenting. I believe that most of variance is self inflicted. We have a few hands that go bad and they stick with us and we try to force hands and administer some bad beats of our own. Which equals bad play on our own part. I went through a bad run a couple of months ago but didn't hurt my good account very bad. I really damaged my goofing around account though. But for me, that's okay. My serious account is continuing to grow.

I hope that you mean 2 sites?

[Tehtoe 3]

I think you keep doing what you are doing as far as searching for solutions. Reading these sites. Books. Audiobooks. Videos. If you are playing good but having a bad run you may just need to hit the reset button. One of the things that I do is I keep two accounts going. Most folks probably keep more than that but I just use two. I use one account to try to make money. I use the other account for steaming and experimenting. I believe that most of variance is self inflicted. We have a few hands that go bad and they stick with us and we try to force hands and administer some bad beats of our own. Which equals bad play on our own part. I went through a bad run a couple of months ago but didn't hurt my good account very bad. I really damaged my goofing around account though. But for me, that's okay. My serious account is continuing to grow.

This is a good idea, what are your s/ns so I can research the idea further?

[rrumsey 0]

I hope that you mean 2 sites?

yah if on the same you are violating the terms of use and they could take all you money

[kobe2odom8 14]

I hope that you mean 2 sites?

ruh roh

[melaskins 0]

2 sites. One account on each.

[nutzzcase 0]

WP sir

[30odd6 0]

im with ya dude...fold to a probable coin-flip. you still have over 20bb and i personally like to be the one shoving. ( i guess we all know that if we had the guy stacked and would still leave us 10-12bb, its insta-call)well put when you say there will be a better spot to put it in, both you and i know that from experience. thats how i play live, and it works great. now the internet...thats a whole different ball of wax there, i guess depending on the size of the buy-in.