Random Baseball Observations

[SuitedAces21 2,722]

I actually agreed with almost everything he said.

i dont know what to say to this. advanced statistics have revolutionized the way we evaluate performance. if you don't want to use them, then that's your business. but its hard for me to value someone's opinion on baseball if they wont use the best tools available.

[Skeleton Jelly 2]

I actually agreed with almost everything he said.

Oh god no. It's an awful, awful article.

[El Guapo 8]

i dont know what to say to this. advanced statistics have revolutionized the way we evaluate performance. if you don't want to use them, then that's your business. but its hard for me to value someone's opinion on baseball if they wont use the best tools available.

Oh god no. It's an awful, awful article.

How so, because he doesn't think that looking solely at statistical performance should determine CY young winners? Also, isn't "wins" a statistic?I am not saying stats should not be used, but they should not be the only thing used. There are intangible that should go into these awards. That is why they are voted on, if they were not voted on we could create statistical model, like a QB's Passer Rating to determine MVP, CY Young, etc.

[SuitedAces21 2,722]

How so, because he doesn't think that looking solely at statistical performance should determine CY young winners? Also, isn't "wins" a statistic?I am not saying stats should not be used, but they should not be the only thing used. There are intangible that should go into these awards. That is why they are voted on, if they were not voted on we could create statistical model, like a QB's Passer Rating to determine MVP, CY Young, etc.

Wins is a worthless statistic for a pitcher. Note that the Mariners were the worst offensive team since the inception of the DH last season. Now if you can tell me why that makes CC Sabathia better than King Felix, I'll eat my hat. The awards should be statistics based. People love to talk intangibles. But you cannot quantify an intangible, so I ask you what good is it? And furthermore, intangibles have nothing to do with this discussion. The Cy Young is supposed to be awarded to the best pitcher in the league. IF we can agree on that, then we can look to what criteria determines which pitcher is the best. Is it innings pitched? ERA? Whip? WAR? Wins? Losses? Strikeouts? The statistics that should be valued highest are the ones that are indicative of what the pitcher himself has the most control over. Wins is by far the stat that the pticher has the least control over. CC isnt better than Felix becuase the Yanks have a great offense. Statistically, Felix was a no brainer. He was ahead in every way that he can control. And that article is a joke because the author comes out and says that Felix was the best pitcher this season. Then he says that Felix shouldnt win the award. Well then what is the point of the award if we arent awarding it to the best pitcher? That kind of logic makes my dick itch.

[Skeleton Jelly 2]

How so?

I'm glad you asked.Let's take a look at this section:The Mariners say in Hernandez’s 12 losses, the team scored a total of seven runs while he was in the game."The Mariners say." As if we just have to take their word for it and can't actually know for sure.I accept that those figures represent terrible run support and would make it difficult for any pitcher to win. But not impossible. I have long believed that good pitchers find a way to win. Two examples:Oh, you've long believed that. Cool. Steve Carlton compiled a 27-10 record in 1972 for a Phillies team that otherwise had a 32-87 record. Carlton led the league with a 1.97 e.r.a., 30 complete games, 310 strikeouts and 346 1/3 innings pitched.Hey, you know who was also really good in terms of ERA, complete games, strikeouts and innings pitched?Murry Dickson was a 20-game winner for one of the most inept teams in history, the 1951 Pirates, whose 64-90 record belied their level of talent. The only reason they didn’t finish last was Dickson’s 20 wins.Oh. Both Carlton and Dickson had more run support than Hernandez, but both found ways to win in spite of the teams they played for.akl;sdodfj;alksdfj;askldfasjf

[El Guapo 8]

OK, maybe I overstated what I agree with. Maybe the premise? IDK, I have to admit I skimmed some parts. I did not follow baseball (especially AL) close enough this year to comment on these two for CY Young award. Maybe Felix does deserve it.

[SuitedAces21 2,722]

OK, maybe I overstated what I agree with. Maybe the premise? IDK, I have to admit I skimmed some parts. I did not follow baseball (especially AL) close enough this year to comment on these two for CY Young award. Maybe Felix does deserve it.

this makes sense. you're a smart guy, guapy. if you looked at the stats you'd know that Felix was the best. He deserved it. No question in my mind.

[CaneBrain 95]

I accept that those figures represent terrible run support and would make it difficult for any pitcher to win. But not impossible. I have long believed that good pitchers find a way to win. Two examples:Both Carlton and Dickson had more run support than Hernandez, but both found ways to win in spite of the teams they played for.

good lord. that's mind-bottling.the FMJ guys would have a field day with this.

Maybe Felix does deserve it.

Only if you believe the Cy Young award should go to the best pitcher, period. Some people think these awards should go to the best pitcher on a good team (or best player on a good team for MVP) and if you are upfront about that view I think it is valid.

[SuitedAces21 2,722]

Some people think these awards should go to the best pitcher on a good team (or best player on a good team for MVP) and if you are upfront about that view I think it is valid.

which is why the MVP needs to be renamed the PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD.

[SuitedAces21 2,722]

wait a minute. new information is coming to light here. a dissenting view that favors cliff lee for the cy young.http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2010/...ew-al-cy-young/http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...010&month=0

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

HAIL TO THE KING, BABY

[Mercury69 3]

"mind-bottling"?

[Skeleton Jelly 2]

"mind-bottling"?

It's intentional. I don't know who started it.

[CaneBrain 95]

It's intentional. I don't know who started it.

Rose, I think (unintentionally of course) and then it became an intentional jopke.

[Skeleton Jelly 2]

Some research.Here is the first instance of it (in a Halo 3 thread):

Mind bottling.

But it doesn't appear anyone called him out on it.Here's the next instance:

The completeness of the spread is mind bottling. It's like my mind is in a bottle.

BG uses it a lot, but I'm pretty sure he's aware.

mind bottling.

Oh hey, it's Naked Cowboy again.Then some other people use it randomly.So I think BG is the source.Also, the Army talks about bottling a lot. Like, way more than anyone should.

[Mercury69 3]

Heh, gotcha...

[Swift_Psycho 1]

wait a minute. new information is coming to light here. a dissenting view that favors cliff lee for the cy young.http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2010/...ew-al-cy-young/http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...010&month=0

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/...ermetric_style/I like Tango's analysis of the situation. He discusses the difference between fangraphs' and baseball-reference's WAR rankings and why they sometimes come to such varying opinions.

[Skeleton Jelly 2]

My predictions:NL MVP - VottoAL MVP - Josh HamiltonNL Cy - HalladayAL Cy - Felix? NL RoY - BusterAL RoY - No clue

Kinda wish I had taken a stab at AL Rookie.

[timwakefield 68]

Fuckin' Victor Martinez signs with the Tigers for 4 years, $50 mil. Best the Sox offered was 4 years at $42m, which would have been a goddam steal. I can't believe we wouldn't go to 50. So now all of Boston is hoping for Martinez to drop off sharply in about 2 years, which probably won't happen (except perhaps defensively).

[Swift_Psycho 1]

Fuckin' Victor Martinez signs with the Tigers for 4 years, $50 mil. Best the Sox offered was 4 years at $42m, which would have been a goddam steal. I can't believe we wouldn't go to 50. So now all of Boston is hoping for Martinez to drop off sharply in about 2 years, which probably won't happen (except perhaps defensively).

I'm surprised by your (apparent) anger that the Sox held firm here. It IS a hard blow and not easy to replace, but I don't think it was necessarily a mistake to let him go if he was going to demand that contract. Martinez is already a below average catcher defensively bound to only get worse, and while he's a really good hitter for a catcher, it's very feasible he moves from catcher to 1b/DH a couple years into the contract (or at least splits a lot more time away from catcher than he does now), where his bat won't be nearly as valuable. Of course there aren't a whole lot of good options to try and replace Martinez, so I might have tried to match the offer if I was Epstein, but I don't think it was horrible to let him go either.Dave Cameron's take: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/v...nez-to-detroit/

[timwakefield 68]

Yeah the big problem is that we don't have another bat to fill his spot. Even if he was a full-time first baseman, he would be extremely valuable (although probably not $50m valuable). I wonder if he would have gone for something like 3 years at $45m, which would have been more-per-year than the Tigers gave him and may have even improved his potential-career-earnings (since it would also make him a free-agent in 3 years, before his decline is likely to be in full effect).My real issue is that 4 years at $42m for Victor Martinez is a joke, and the Sox can't have realistically thought he'd accept. Even 4 years at $50m is pretty conservative for Martinez, considering a lot of the contracts around baseball. If he'd really held out he probably could have milked a few million more from somebody, but it seems like he was happy to accept a pretty fair contract. 4 years and $42m is not a fair contract.Basically, I won't be satisfied until we play the Tigers and steal at least 3 bases off him.

[Theraflu 1,035]

[quote name='timwakefield' date='Friday, N

[SuitedAces21 2,722]

v-mart can barely pass as a catcher now. and as a 1st/DH he isnt worth that money. plenty of better guys to spend it on. the sox will be fine without him.

[Theraflu 1,035]

I certainly wrote a lot more than that last night.

[timwakefield 68]

You should write it again.On a not-really-related note, I'm excited for Jacoby Ellsbury to come back next year. He stole 70 bases 2 years ago, for the Red Sox. That's unheard of. He's apparently being talked about in trades, but I really hope we don't trade him unless we get somebody amazing.