Random Baseball Observations

[NickCave 194]

 

 

Why are Sabermetrics overrated?

Since Sabertards are so keen on drawing the mindless, blind paraell between Sabermetrics and thequant side of value investing, lets examine it in that context.

 

When Ben Graham came along, he changed the game by understanding what figures 'mattered' and how the markets were apt to overlook certain companies even though the math suggested that they were virtually guaranteed a more favorable earnings outcome. Over the next 40 years, everyone played by basically the same book and even expanded on it, to the point that the Office Chairs/Pencil Sharpeners ratio was considered in analystists reports.

 

The great value school that came up in the 70's and 80's realized that 'business perspective investing' was just as important as statistical value, largely because of an incresingly efficient market impelled by the cery credible aspects of Grahamian analysis but also, because there's just a LOT more to arriving at actionable insight than the quant side.

 

The problem is,qualatative stuff is waaaaaaaaaaaaaay harder to employ for effect and justify. The result was a hybrid system that used value as the basis with BPI as the arbiter. The method still beats the markets to this day but is wanting for successful participants because it has high demands on both hemispheres of the brain and essentially all people predominate to one side or the other.

 

Sabermetrics have become comical in their willingness to suspend any semblance of 'relevant corollary' and just blather stats and ratios for stats and ratios sake, even (if not usually) when those same figures offer us no relevant and repeatable insight over an arc of time and are often times just isolated functions of unique circumstances... and this is talking about their more credible stuff. The less credible stuff is like watching people in hooded robes read scattered tea leaves. They sincerely believe the process gives them some sort of 'edge' in anticipating an outcome but really, its just ****ing dumb.

 

So, that's why.

Also, I believe typing all that without mocking the right brain disabilities of Asians even ONE SINGLE TIME should earn me at least a moderatorship.

 

I'm still not tracking your argument well. Can you give an example of mainstream, responsible quantitative analysis that is, in your view, worthless nonsense?

 

I'm a big fan of objective statistical analysis, and I do believe it gives me an edge in predicting outcomes against the uninformed. To me, it sounds like you're criticizing stat nerds for the same reason that sportswriters do: because they're nerds. I could be misreading you, but.basically aren't you just saying, "They're throwing all these numbers and acronyms around IN THEIR MOTHERS' BASEMENTS."

[slink 1]

 

 

However, I also agree with JJJ that Trout should definitely be in the converation, and should win outright if Cabrera only gets 2 out of 3.

 

That is just ridiculous. M Cab should not get the MVP dependent on what some other does in one of the three categories. He should get it if he wins the triple crown, but not if Hamilton hits a few more homers or Trout gets a few more singles.

[AmScray 354]

but.basically aren't you just saying, "They're throwing all these numbers and acronyms around IN THEIR MOTHERS' BASEMENTS."

 

Of course I am saying that, but it isn't the crux of my argument.

I guess for this to be productive, first define 'mainstream, responsible quantitative analysis'.

 

Just because something can be quantified and analyzed doesn't mean it offers actionable insight.

Likewise, just because some things are difficult to quantify doesn't mean they're irrelevant.

 

Quants are great at information, terrible at knowledge.

[mrdannyg 274]

I'm still not tracking your argument well. Can you give an example of mainstream, responsible quantitative analysis that is, in your view, worthless nonsense?

 

I'm a big fan of objective statistical analysis, and I do believe it gives me an edge in predicting outcomes against the uninformed. To me, it sounds like you're criticizing stat nerds for the same reason that sportswriters do: because they're nerds. I could be misreading you, but.basically aren't you just saying, "They're throwing all these numbers and acronyms around IN THEIR MOTHERS' BASEMENTS."

 

I don't know how you get that from a post who's only example of a "saber" stat was "ambient temperature for left-field doubles" which is totally the first column on every player's fangraphs page.

 

Scram's just trolling. Literally every mainstream "saber" writer explicitly and repeatedly argues that the only appropriate analysis is one that combines the type of advanced statistics that tells us more RBI or AVG, while considering the statistical limitations of that statistic (appropriate sample sizes usually being understated) with the kind of 'real-life' scouting and analysis that takes you beyond the measurable. Scram's hypothetical quant is Lupica, not Cameron.

[timwakefield 69]

So my fawning over Jose Iglesias' defense was certainly validated, as he turned in probably the play of the year for an infielder last night. That throw is just insane.

 

http://wapc.mlb.com/play/?content_id=29656865&c_id=mlb&topic_id=vtp_must_c

[NickCave 194]

So my fawning over Jose Iglesias' defense was certainly validated, as he turned in probably the play of the year for an infielder last night. That throw is just insane.

 

http://wapc.mlb.com/...c_id=vtp_must_c

 

I was watching it live. When it happened I was stunned. I stood up, pointed at the TV, and shouted, for reasons that would I'm uncertain I could explain, "HAHA, **** EVERYONE" I just didn't know how to react. Probably the best defensive play I've seen in as long as I can remember.

[AmScray 354]

I must admit that my opinion of Wakefield has improved.

 

Instead of painful terminal cancer, I now wish him death that is a bit quicker.

[brvheart 1,766]

To Wakefield: I didn't like Scram's post because I wish you death. Instead, it was because it was funny.

[Cha! Cha! 629]

My current favorite baseball player is *pauses to think about it* Manny Machado? Trout? Puig?

 

My current favorite pitcher is Felix Hernandez no question.

 

My all-time favorite baseball player is *loooooong pause* I don't know.

 

My all-time favorite pitcher is Greg Maddux no question.

 

 

I have much stronger feelings towards dominant pitchers than dominant everyday players.

[brvheart 1,766]

Current favorite player is Puig.

 

Current favorite pitcher is Hernandez.

 

All-time favorite player is Pete Rose.

 

All-time favorite pitcher is Nolan.

 

All-time favorite closer is Bobby Thigpen.

[Cha! Cha! 629]

All-time favorite closer is Eric Gagne. Dude was filthy.

 

 

I'd probably say Rivera is my favorite current closer, but I think that's more like crazy respect and awe. He's not really my favorite, since I hate all Yankees.

 

Current favorite is probably Chapman.

[YonYonson 156]

Craig Kimbrel if I had to choose but I think the "closer" is overrated and a stupid phenomenon.

[Cha! Cha! 629]

Baseball needs to evolve to the relief ace instead of the closer.

 

Or I guess it needs to regress since that's how it used to be.

 

Stupid Tony LaRussa.

 

Relief pitchers probably wouldn't like that either since closers get dolla dolla bills y'all.

[Dubey 1,035]

Current Favourite Player: Puig. HM: Trout, Goldschmidt, Posey

Current Favourite Pitcher: Scherzer. HM: Dickey

All-Time favourite player: Griffey Jr. HM: Bonds, Robbie Alomar, Rickie Henderson

All-time Favourite Pitcher: Pedro HM: Randy Johnson

[brvheart 1,766]

BONDS!? ug.

[Cha! Cha! 629]

It was a pleasure watching Barry Bonds play.

 

Rickey Henderson is a good call too.

[YonYonson 156]

My favorite player is currently Alex Gordon.

 

Favorite pitcher is king Felix.

 

All time favorite player was chipper jones.

 

All time favorite pitcher was Greg Maddox.

[The Ocho 972]

Current Favorite Player: Trout

Current Favorite Pitcher: Felix

All-Time Favorite player: Griffey Jr. (Also on the list for different reasons: Mark Grace, Will Clark, Ryne Sandberg)

All-time Favorite Pitcher: Maddux

[Cha! Cha! 629]

I think I'm going to go with Rickey Henderson for all-time favorite player.

 

 

BONDS!? ug.

 

Said the guy who listed Pete Rose as his favorite.

[BigDMcGee 3,360]

Current Favorite Player: Bryce Harper, Puig

Current favorite pitcher: Felix

All Time Favorite Player: Andre Dawson (non-Cub... Rickey Henderson)

All Time Favorite Pitcher: Pedro

 

I like the Bonds call, he was great. And I think he had an underrated sense of humor. A lot of sports writers were too dumb to know when he was joking a lot of the time, or were the target of his (admittedly razor sharp) wit, and didn't like being the butt of the jokes. Andre isn't the best or anything but he was by far my favorite player growing up. I also loved Manny. And I'm a sucker for bad ball hitters, so Vlad in his prime was hilarious to watch.

[BigDMcGee 3,360]

My favorite closer of all time was Lee Smith

[AmScray 354]

We're naming favorites now?

 

Favorite Contemporary Pitcher: Phil Niekro.

Favorite Contemporary Hitter: Tony Gwynn

 

Favorite Active Pitcher: Lincecum.

Favorite Active Hitter: Hamilton.

[AmScray 354]

My favorite closer of all time was Lee Smith

 

One premise that always annoyed the shit out of me in the movie Brewsters Millions (a baseball film?) is that Brewster was supposedly a beast for a few innings, but not much more. The storyline played it like that factor was what kept him in the minors. Obviously, a catastrophic flaw in that narrative is that if Brewster was really that dominant for only a few innings, he could've just been a closer.

[BigDMcGee 3,360]

Well, Brewsters came out in 85, and who knows when the script was written, and the closer was not quite an established position at that point. But yeah, he certainly could have been at least been a reliever or w/e. Teams didn't carry 6 pitchers before the closer was established. They still had relievers if starters got shelled.

[The Ocho 972]

So can Brewsters Millions be added to top baseball movies?