Random Baseball Observations

[SuitedAces21 2,722]

allen craig with a horrifyingly stupid sb attempt. intelligence!

[BaseJester 1]

allen craig with a horrifyingly stupid sb attempt. intelligence!

yep

[timwakefield 68]

Had to be a hit and run/missed sign, or something like that. No way he was just straight-stealing there. I guess LaRussa will probably let us know in a few minutes. Exciting game all around.

[CobaltBlue 662]

Fun series. Let's go, Rangers!

[digitalmonkey 929]

why the hell does mike napoli hit so far down in the order? it's amazing how stupid major league managers can be sometimes.

allen craig with a horrifyingly stupid sb attempt. intelligence!

This article addresses both your points and more.

[mrdannyg 274]

This article addresses both your points and more.

Jeff Passan has written several articles for the World Series, and they are amongst the most unreadable things I've read in a while. This particular one could've been 4 sentences long. Instead it stretched for what seemed like a few thousand words, all saying the exact same thing.Seriously, that article is both confusing and repetitive - a tricky combo. Could've said exactly as much in less than 100 words or less. My favourite part is how strictly in contradicts his early articles about the TLR genius, and how he had single-handedly won the game.Managers do not win games. They can lose them, like if they use Esteban German as a pinch-hitter, or rape their team with sacrifice hits and intentional walks. But unless they walk out there and smack a double, or somehow get a matchup where Mike Napoli is hitting off a 12-year old, they aren't winning the game, they're just not screwing it up.

[mrdannyg 274]

why the hell does mike napoli hit so far down in the order? it's amazing how stupid major league managers can be sometimes.

Let's remember that Napoli's previously manager thought he was less valuable than Jeff Mathis. So Texas batting him 8th is actually a step up in managerial decisions.I hope Napoli has a 1000+ OPS next year, and we can start wondering what his career would've looked like if he played 150 games a year (split between C/1B/DH, like other good-hitting catchers, presumably).

[SuitedAces21 2,722]

worst part is napoli came up, through sheer luck, in the most critical spot in the game and delivered. so now not only will ron washington not be criticized for his idiocy, he will probably be applauded for it. YES!

[CaneBrain 95]

worst part is napoli came up, through sheer luck, in the most critical spot in the game and delivered. so now not only will ron washington not be criticized for his idiocy, he will probably be applauded for it. YES!

I was just gonna come in here and say Ron Washington knows how to get Napoli up in key situations!Also, Craig was not at fault.....hell, the announcers even said he was going to be running on any 3-2 count because Pujols strikes out so rarely. So, the announcers jinxed Pujols pretty hard.That was probably the only baseball I will watch this year but it was scintillating.

[SuitedAces21 2,722]

Also, Craig was not at fault.....hell, the announcers even said he was going to be running on any 3-2 count because Pujols strikes out so rarely. So, the announcers jinxed Pujols pretty hard.

i was talking about the sb attempt from Pujols' previous at bat. when the count was 0-1. and then the rangers walked Pujols after Craig was gunned down. looks like it was a missed sign or something. at least thats what i read.

[Dread Aidan 8]

Had to be a hit and run/missed sign, or something like that. No way he was just straight-stealing there. I guess LaRussa will probably let us know in a few minutes. Exciting game all around.

A hit and run is just as inexcusable. Hey, we've got our best hitter up, let's force him to swing at a pitch even if it's really bad.So...did we find out what it was?I need a little box in the corner of the screen that just has a camera on Ron Washington all the time.

[SuitedAces21 2,722]

A hit and run is just as inexcusable. Hey, we've got our best hitter up, let's force him to swing at a pitch even if it's really bad.

thank you.

So...did we find out what it was?

only thing i saw was that Craig said something about a missed sign. but he was vague and the author of the article posited that he was trying not to throw someone under the bus. LaRussa i guess. EDIT:Afterward, Pujols said he put on the failed hit-and-run play. Except that he didn't swing at a nasty Alexi Ogando fastball, leaving Craig exposed."It was a hit-and-run and Ogando threw an unhittable pitch,'' Craig said. "It was a perfect play for them.''But did the sign come from the dugout or from Pujols?"I got the sign [from the third-base coach] and I ran, simple as that,'' Craig said.http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/sto...echowski-111024

[Dread Aidan 8]

Afterward, Pujols said he put on the failed hit-and-run play. Except that he didn't swing at a nasty Alexi Ogando fastball, leaving Craig exposed.

This is pretty funny. Pujols: Let's do a hit and run!*head high 95 mph fastball*Pujols: Oh, fuck that.

[SuitedAces21 2,722]

DA - where do you stand on bunting with a runner on second and no one out? when furcal bunted his way on and advanced to second on the throwing error, allen craig is up with no outs and a man on second. he sacrfices furcal over and the rangers then walk pujols. holliday then grounds into a double play.but in that article the author says that bunting there is a bad idea. i' dont think i agree with that. if you dont bunt him over and craig doesnt advance the runner, they walk pujols anyways and you dont even have a runner at third with one out for the potential sac fly. i guess the argument is you dont force your two hitter to give up an ab, but setting it up so you know you can get your clean-up man to the plate with runners on first and third and one out is a good spot too. i dont know.

[digitalmonkey 929]

Jeff Passan has written several articles for the World Series, and they are amongst the most unreadable things I've read in a while. This particular one could've been 4 sentences long. Instead it stretched for what seemed like a few thousand words, all saying the exact same thing.Seriously, that article is both confusing and repetitive - a tricky combo. Could've said exactly as much in less than 100 words or less. My favourite part is how strictly in contradicts his early articles about the TLR genius, and how he had single-handedly won the game.Managers do not win games. They can lose them, like if they use Esteban German as a pinch-hitter, or rape their team with sacrifice hits and intentional walks. But unless they walk out there and smack a double, or somehow get a matchup where Mike Napoli is hitting off a 12-year old, they aren't winning the game, they're just not screwing it up.

I posted the article because it raises the issue of whether LaRussa f'ed up. I didn't post it because I considered it award-worthy.

[Dread Aidan 8]

DA - where do you stand on bunting with a runner on second and no one out? when furcal bunted his way on and advanced to second on the throwing error, allen craig is up with no outs and a man on second. he sacrfices furcal over and the rangers then walk pujols. holliday then grounds into a double play.but in that article the author says that bunting there is a bad idea. i' dont think i agree with that. if you dont bunt him over and craig doesnt advance the runner, they walk pujols anyways and you dont even have a runner at third with one out for the potential sac fly. i guess the argument is you dont force your two hitter to give up an ab, but setting it up so you know you can get your clean-up man to the plate with runners on first and third and one out is a good spot too. i dont know.

I didn't read the article, but I'm in the "never bunt" camp. Statistically speaking, bunting always lowers your run expectation, even if it's the pitcher bunting. I think the only time you do it is if it's a tie game in the bottom of the 9th and you need one and only one run to win. But even then you need to have a really bad hitter who is also a good bunter.I really don't like it in this specific situation. Craig is a decent hitter, isn't he? (If not, why is he batting 2nd?) Let him swing away and try to make something good happen. If he fails at everything, it's not like Furcal isn't in scoring position with your three best hitters coming up.You're saying it's your clean-up guy up with 1st and 3rd and one out instead of 1st and 2nd with one out, but that assumes Craig fails.

[timwakefield 68]

A hit and run is just as inexcusable. Hey, we've got our best hitter up, let's force him to swing at a pitch even if it's really bad.So...did we find out what it was?

Oh I agree that a hit + run is a terrible play for the manager to put on there. I thought maybe the runner mistook a sign, and thought it was a hit + run. But apparently it was Pujols who gave the signal? How does he not just throw his bat out there and foul it off? Very strange.

I need a little box in the corner of the screen that just has a camera on Ron Washington all the time.

Yeah I loved it when he finally "did the Wash" on Napoli's double.

"It was a hit-and-run and Ogando threw an unhittable pitch,'' Craig said. "It was a perfect play for them.''

It might have been "unhittable" as far as putting it in play, but it surely could have been fouled off. It's not like they pitched out.

[timwakefield 68]

Best I could find. It won't let me embed it.

[Dread Aidan 8]

Here is a good summary of the game and its odd moments.Including:Fuck yeah, piece of shit, fuck you! (at 24 second mark)

[CobaltBlue 662]

I didn't read the article, but I'm in the "never bunt" camp.

Never sacrifice bunt or never bunt at all?

[Dread Aidan 8]

Never sacrifice bunt or never bunt at all?

Sacrifice. Don't give away outs.

[timwakefield 68]

Sacrifice. Don't give away outs.

Just for the sake of accuracy, unless your pitcher is batting, right? I guess that pretty much goes without saying though.

[Dread Aidan 8]

Just for the sake of accuracy, unless your pitcher is batting, right? I guess that pretty much goes without saying though.

Statistically speaking, bunting always lowers your run expectation, even if it's the pitcher bunting. I think the only time you do it is if it's a tie game in the bottom of the 9th and you need one and only one run to win.

I should probably find the article I read that gave the actual data to support that notion. Not just to convince you, but because it was a while ago and I might be remembering it wrong.Edit: Here's a run expectancy matrix (average number of runs scored):Here's another matrix (the chance that a run will score):So this suggests that if you only need one run to win and you have a runner at 2nd and no outs or 1st and 2nd and no outs, then you should bunt.So I guess when Furcal was on 2nd, LaRussa was making it more likely they score a single run while simultaneously reducing their chances of scoring more runs.I'm still looking for the "don't even bunt with your pitcher" stuff.

[BaseJester 1]

So this suggests that if you only need one run to win and you have a runner at 2nd and no outs or 1st and 2nd and no outs, then you should bunt.

Interesting stuff.In fact, this data suggests only that you have improved your situation if you succeed at sacrificing.

[Dread Aidan 8]

Interesting stuff.In fact, this data suggests only that you have improved your situation if you succeed at sacrificing.

Yes, this is more correct.So, to answer the question of whether you should attempt to sacrifice you would have to factor in both failed attempts and attempts where you reach base safely or the defense makes an error allowing an extra base to be taken, etc. My hunch is that these non-standard outcomes mostly cancel each other out.Edit: If you want to think about sacrifice bunts more than you ever have before, click here.