Random Baseball Observations

[iBeaver 409]

And now I read we might be looking at Shin Soo Choo

[NickCave 194]

I think this is a win for the Tigers, but not as big a win as most people think. The biggest thing (apart from the $75MM the Tigers save lolololololol), from my perspective, is that Kinsler just fits better with the Tigers' needs than Fielder. Cabrera/Fielder/Martinez was just a horrible logjam. That's 3 DHs trying to play 1B/3B/DH. Getting Cabrera to 1B will be a huge.

 

Fielder is a super good baseball player who had a down year. Every time I looked at his stats, I was trying to find something that suggested he was deteriorating physically, losing bat speed, losing athleticism, whatever, and I never could. There was no rhyme or reason to it; he just kinda sucked. I would have guessed he'd rebound pretty well next year even if he stayed in Detroit. I wouldn't be shocked if he returns to .300+/.400+/.500+ levels over the next few years and finishes top 5 in the triple crown stats. I have no problem saying he's a better player than Kinsler, even though I'm sure they'll project similarly for next year.

 

Kinsler is kind of "blah" anymore. He's an average defensive 2B who's probably a slightly above average hitter, and that has plenty of value. He's 31 or 32, and his skills have started to deteriorate already. Much better 2B have been done in their early-to-mid 30s for no reason. If Kinsler ends up as a league-average player over the course of his deal, I'll probably be okay with that. I'd rather him have two good years and then fall off a cliff, but whatever.

 

Again, good deal for the Tigs, and I'd have pulled the trigger myself no questions, but let's not forget how good Fielder is, and how long it's been since Kinsler was great. The cost savings are the big thing. Anything you can do to get out of that Fielder deal, which was destined for disaster the day it was inked, is worth it. If the Tigers can use the 70MM+ they've saved (and it could be more, since I'm pretty sure that money is being shipped out post 2016) to upgrade the roster or maintain flexibility, even a little, then their chances of winning a ring jumped significantly.

 

 

I tell you, having a general manager like David Dombrowski is really, really comforting. Every year, I go into the off season or the trade deadline thinking "well, look, there's not much Dombrowski can do, his hands are kinda tied," and almost every year, he does something to make the team better. He's never been a super stats-oriented GM, but he's really adjusted as well as anyone can. He evaluates his own talent incredibly well (Maybin, Miller, Turner, Edwin Jackson, etc.), the players he acquires in trades tend to exceed expectations (Fister! Scherzer! Cabrera! Jackson! Sanchez!), and he's totally willing to do anything he needs, even when it involves basically admitting a mistake (Fielder). He's flexible, smart, and it seems like he's willing to learn and adjust.

 

Hell, he just hired BRAD AUSMUS. And Brad Ausmus just hired a DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR, Matt Martin, whose job it is to work with advance scouts to, basically, set up shifts to maximize defensive efficiency, among other things. (Here is a great free BPro piece from Gabe Kapler about him.) Dombrowski has always been decidedly old school in most respects, but he's smart enough to be like, "I understand math, and also learn new things." Hall of Fame GM. I am scared he'll get the job as commissioner when Selig is gone. He'd be PHENOMENAL as Commish, but I don't want to lose him as GM

 

 

Edit: Excerpt from the Kapler piece on Martin:

 

I remember the first time I saw Matt at Tiger Town in Lakeland, Florida in 1997. In an ecosystem where the coaches wore golf shirts, Matt rocked a full Run DMC-style sweat suit and baseball cap. “That’s odd,” I thought to myself

 

This Kapler piece is one of the best pieces of baseball writing I've ever read. It's long, but it is (considering it is written by an ex ballplayer) shockingly well written prose-wise, and the perspective and insight are unmatched. He talks about, for an example I'll close with, what happens in a scouting meeting:

Here’s an archetypal script of a conversation behind the scenes:

Baseball man with MLB service time: “I don’t think (insert prospect) will ever hit in the big leagues. He doesn’t have the bat speed.”

Collective voice of the meeting: “He’s right.” “I saw him in the Eastern League and he struggled.”

Baseball man without MLB service time: “I disagree. I’ve seen him get to plus velocity pitches in off the plate consistently. He will hit at the next level.”

Collective voice of the meeting: Quiet. Skeptical eye contact. Queasy energy.

In subsequent hypothetical conversations, it would be commonplace for men who were in the meeting to gossip about the fact that baseball man no. 2 played very little professional baseball, treating that as a sign that the man with the highest level of experience—and with the most service time as a player—owns an opinion with more merit.

This game of ours functions like an old boys’ club. Relationships act as catalysts to position acquisition within an organization. In a perfect world, personal relationships would be the deciding factor when all else is equal. In baseball, relationships weight the scales more than merit, and therefore clubs lose the opportunity to benefit from superb assets like Matt.

[NickCave 194]

Also, how the **** can my post with Phil Coke video only have two likes? I'd never been more confident in my life that I'd snag a like from THE MACHINE than when I posted that. I mean, yeah, sure, if it were a GIF, or something, but other than that?

 

"I DON'T REMEMBER HORSE CRAP PITCHERS"

[NickCave 194]

Well we needed a 2nd baseman since it sounded as if Infante wasn't getting resigned. Now we move Miggy back to 1st and then we finally have a spot open at 3rd to bring in our top prospect, Castellanos. Hes been playing LF I think last year since he thought his chances of ever cracking 3B in Detroit was slim to none. Well now the spot is open I think it is his spot to lose in the spring. I assume we then take the money saved and get a closer and LF which are much needed at this time.

 

If none of that happens I hate this move.

 

If they spend money on a closer, shame on them. Just do what the Rays do, and ****ing turn somebody else's trash pieces into a good bullpen.

 

Also, the word on the street is that Castellanos wasn't making the progress the Tigers wanted to see at 3B, and that maybe his future, regardless of major league roster, is in the OF. I'm not sure how true that is, but I imagine it'll take him at least half-a-year to get reacclimated to 3B.

 

I say, take that 75MM and keep it in your pocket. Sign a few lotto ticket relievers, maybe a utility guy or two, see if you can use it to help acquire either a league average 3B or LF, then use the rest to keep at least some of your current talent around. (I'm looking at you, Doug Fister.)

[mrdannyg 274]

And now I read we might be looking at Shin Soo Choo

 

If they get Choo or Ellsbury, as well as re-sign Scherzer, it's a big goddamn win party for Detroit.

 

I think this is a win for the Tigers, but not as big a win as most people think. The biggest thing (apart from the $75MM the Tigers save lolololololol), from my perspective, is that Kinsler just fits better with the Tigers' needs than Fielder. Cabrera/Fielder/Martinez was just a horrible logjam. That's 3 DHs trying to play 1B/3B/DH. Getting Cabrera to 1B will be a huge.

 

Fielder is a super good baseball player who had a down year. Every time I looked at his stats, I was trying to find something that suggested he was deteriorating physically, losing bat speed, losing athleticism, whatever, and I never could. There was no rhyme or reason to it; he just kinda sucked. I would have guessed he'd rebound pretty well next year even if he stayed in Detroit. I wouldn't be shocked if he returns to .300+/.400+/.500+ levels over the next few years and finishes top 5 in the triple crown stats. I have no problem saying he's a better player than Kinsler, even though I'm sure they'll project similarly for next year.

 

Kinsler is kind of "blah" anymore. He's an average defensive 2B who's probably a slightly above average hitter, and that has plenty of value. He's 31 or 32, and his skills have started to deteriorate already. Much better 2B have been done in their early-to-mid 30s for no reason. If Kinsler ends up as a league-average player over the course of his deal, I'll probably be okay with that. I'd rather him have two good years and then fall off a cliff, but whatever.

 

Again, good deal for the Tigs, and I'd have pulled the trigger myself no questions, but let's not forget how good Fielder is, and how long it's been since Kinsler was great. The cost savings are the big thing. Anything you can do to get out of that Fielder deal, which was destined for disaster the day it was inked, is worth it. If the Tigers can use the 70MM+ they've saved (and it could be more, since I'm pretty sure that money is being shipped out post 2016) to upgrade the roster or maintain flexibility, even a little, then their chances of winning a ring jumped significantly.

 

I tell you, having a general manager like David Dombrowski is really, really comforting. Every year, I go into the off season or the trade deadline thinking "well, look, there's not much Dombrowski can do, his hands are kinda tied," and almost every year, he does something to make the team better. He's never been a super stats-oriented GM, but he's really adjusted as well as anyone can. He evaluates his own talent incredibly well (Maybin, Miller, Turner, Edwin Jackson, etc.), the players he acquires in trades tend to exceed expectations (Fister! Scherzer! Cabrera! Jackson! Sanchez!), and he's totally willing to do anything he needs, even when it involves basically admitting a mistake (Fielder). He's flexible, smart, and it seems like he's willing to learn and adjust.

 

Hell, he just hired BRAD AUSMUS. And Brad Ausmus just hired a DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR, Matt Martin, whose job it is to work with advance scouts to, basically, set up shifts to maximize defensive efficiency, among other things. (Here is a great free BPro piece from Gabe Kapler about him.) Dombrowski has always been decidedly old school in most respects, but he's smart enough to be like, "I understand math, and also learn new things." Hall of Fame GM. I am scared he'll get the job as commissioner when Selig is gone. He'd be PHENOMENAL as Commish, but I don't want to lose him as GM

 

 

Edit: Excerpt from the Kapler piece on Martin:

 

I remember the first time I saw Matt at Tiger Town in Lakeland, Florida in 1997. In an ecosystem where the coaches wore golf shirts, Matt rocked a full Run DMC-style sweat suit and baseball cap. “That’s odd,” I thought to myself

 

This Kapler piece is one of the best pieces of baseball writing I've ever read. It's long, but it is (considering it is written by an ex ballplayer) shockingly well written prose-wise, and the perspective and insight are unmatched. He talks about, for an example I'll close with, what happens in a scouting meeting:

 

Here’s an archetypal script of a conversation behind the scenes:

Baseball man with MLB service time: “I don’t think (insert prospect) will ever hit in the big leagues. He doesn’t have the bat speed.”

Collective voice of the meeting: “He’s right.” “I saw him in the Eastern League and he struggled.”

Baseball man without MLB service time: “I disagree. I’ve seen him get to plus velocity pitches in off the plate consistently. He will hit at the next level.”

Collective voice of the meeting: Quiet. Skeptical eye contact. Queasy energy.

In subsequent hypothetical conversations, it would be commonplace for men who were in the meeting to gossip about the fact that baseball man no. 2 played very little professional baseball, treating that as a sign that the man with the highest level of experience—and with the most service time as a player—owns an opinion with more merit.

This game of ours functions like an old boys’ club. Relationships act as catalysts to position acquisition within an organization. In a perfect world, personal relationships would be the deciding factor when all else is equal. In baseball, relationships weight the scales more than merit, and therefore clubs lose the opportunity to benefit from superb assets like Matt.

 

This is all pretty great. Only things I'd add is 1) that the health aspects of most projections take a lot of averages into account, and while the regression is important, I think they may overestimate how much a skinny 2B with a huge injury history should maintain his health and how much a fat 1B (who can move to DH) and has an incredible injury history may maintain it better than we expect. 2) Fielder had some insane peripheral stats at the beginning of the year. At some point he got divorced, and it was a bit messy, which I can imagine would have a real effect on anyone. When someone's first down year comes with reasonable peripherals and a reasonable 'human' explanation, I'm going to put a lot of stock into a potential comeback.

 

I don't like that the Tigers may well have traded some present for future when their team is build to win in the short-term (not that they'll necessary be uncompetitive in the long run, but the future is always less certain, and the present looks very good). That's a minor quibble though. Like I said, if they feel this positions them to sign Scherzer long-term, I'd take Kinsler + Ellsbury/Choo over Fielder any day, and Dombrowski has certainly earned the benefit of the doubt.

[The Machine 210]

Also, how the **** can my post with Phil Coke video only have two likes? I'd never been more confident in my life that I'd snag a like from THE MACHINE than when I posted that. I mean, yeah, sure, if it were a GIF, or something, but other than that?

 

"I DON'T REMEMBER HORSE CRAP PITCHERS"

 

I think I liked it when it was posted a year ago.

[NickCave 194]

If they get Choo or Ellsbury, as well as re-sign Scherzer, it's a big goddamn win party for Detroit.

 

 

 

This is all pretty great. Only things I'd add is 1) that the health aspects of most projections take a lot of averages into account, and while the regression is important, I think they may overestimate how much a skinny 2B with a huge injury history should maintain his health and how much a fat 1B (who can move to DH) and has an incredible injury history may maintain it better than we expect. 2) Fielder had some insane peripheral stats at the beginning of the year. At some point he got divorced, and it was a bit messy, which I can imagine would have a real effect on anyone. When someone's first down year comes with reasonable peripherals and a reasonable 'human' explanation, I'm going to put a lot of stock into a potential comeback.

 

I don't like that the Tigers may well have traded some present for future when their team is build to win in the short-term (not that they'll necessary be uncompetitive in the long run, but the future is always less certain, and the present looks very good). That's a minor quibble though. Like I said, if they feel this positions them to sign Scherzer long-term, I'd take Kinsler + Ellsbury/Choo over Fielder any day, and Dombrowski has certainly earned the benefit of the doubt.

 

Yeah, but trading Fielder allows them to put a better team on the field, even if the roster stays the same. In terms of resource allocation, they were heavy at 1B/DH, and light elsewhere. Cabrera getting off 3B, where he is really a disaster, and back to 1B where he is only regular bad, is helpful. They had no internal 2B solution. Their top prospect is, ostensibly, a 3B.

 

Plus, the money they save isn't, like, not going to be spent. I can't imagine they'll NOT add pieces with that extra dough

[The Machine 210]

I think the trade made sense for both teams, while acknowledging that the Tigers clearly gave up the better player.

[NickCave 194]

I think the trade made sense for both teams, while acknowledging that the Tigers clearly gave up the better player.

 

Who do you think got the better end of the deal?

[The Machine 210]

Probably say the Rangers because they got the better player.

 

The Tigers move Fielder, which means they don't have to play three DH's anymore. That's probably a good thing, but I don't know who they have to play third base. Do they currently have a good replacement or do they have to look elsewhere?

 

But the Rangers move their second baseman and they've already got a great prospect ready (hopefully) to fill that void and they get a massive upgrade to first base.

 

So I think the Tigers are putting themselves in a great position to improve their team with this deal, but I think the Rangers have already improved their team just with this deal.

[NickCave 194]

Would you pay Fielder 7/170 on the open market?

[The Machine 210]

Well, I don't have that kind of money, but the Rangers are loaded. Does it matter if Fielder wouldn't get that kind of money anymore as long as it doesn't impact your financial decisions going forward?

 

And it's really 7/140 because the Tigers are sending $30m to the Rangers.

[NickCave 194]

Well, I don't have that kind of money, but the Rangers are loaded. Does it matter if Fielder wouldn't get that kind of money anymore as long as it doesn't impact your financial decisions going forward?

 

And it's really 7/140 because the Tigers are sending $30m to the Rangers.

 

Whoops, sorry. 7/140.

 

I saw that argument somewhere else, that "there is so much money in baseball that evaluating players based on their salaries is outmoded," and I thought it was patently ridiculous. The idea is, there's all this TV money coming in, and fewer and fewer players are hitting the open market, so teams have nowhere to spend their money, meaning there's no longer such thing as an overpay, a sentiment that ignores pretty much every basic tenet of economics.

 

I guess, for me, it comes down to, I'd rather have Kinsler + whatever you can buy with 75MM than Fielder. Kinsler + Granderson + (shudder) Nathan? Kinsler + 1/2 Ellsbury? Kinsler + 3/4 Choo? All better than Fielder, and I don't think it's even close.

[The Machine 210]

Kinsler has been kind of terrible away from Arlington. How much do you factor that in?

 

And I can change my mind about the trade if the Tigers take that money and do something good with it. Right now, I don't think the Tigers are better. But they could be.

 

It's like the Pistons creating all this cap space and then spending it on Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva. Payroll flexibility is a great thing to have, but it matters how you use it. Obviously I would have more faith in Dombrowski than Dumars, but still.

[The Machine 210]

Regarding the money thing. You can certainly still overpay players, but sometimes that's a necessary evil. The Rangers need a big bat; where can they get one?

[NickCave 194]

Kinsler has been kind of terrible away from Arlington. How much do you factor that in?

 

And I can change my mind about the trade if the Tigers take that money and do something good with it. Right now, I don't think the Tigers are better. But they could be.

 

It's like the Pistons creating all this cap space and then spending it on Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva. Payroll flexibility is a great thing to have, but it matters how you use it. Obviously I would have more faith in Dombrowski than Dumars, but still.

 

I'm not sure how fair that is. Shouldn't the trade be evaluated in a vacuum? They should be expected to do something with the cost savings, and that's all that matters. Like, if they went out and traded Scherzer for Mike Trout, and then Mike Trout died in a plane crash on the way to spring training, would you change your mind and decide it's a bad trade for the Tigers? No, you'd chalk it up to "good process, bad result" and your opinion of the deal wouldn't change. And, sure, signing Gordon and Villanueva was just LOL hilariously bad from day one, but that doesn't mean all the other things Dumars did were bad. They overpaid for two guys everyone knew they were overpaying for. Don't do that.

 

I believe, in a vacuum, it's a good deal for the Tigers. The Rangers desperately wanted a power hitting 1B. The Tigers had one who was way overpaid. The fact that the Tigers could get out from under a bad contract by leveraging that desperation indicates to me that the Tigers got the better end, and they didn't have to blow up their team to do it. They'll probably project as a better team, right now, without making a single extra move.

[The Machine 210]

But I already said it was a good deal for the Tigers because it puts them in a good position to improve their team.

 

I am evaluating the trade in a vacuum right now. I think this deal has improved the Rangers more than the Tigers. Projecting what else they will do would not be evaluating it in a vacuum, right? Why are things in a vacuum?

 

Why do you think the Tigers are improved right now? Who is losing his job at second base and who is getting the job at third?

[NickCave 194]

But I already said it was a good deal for the Tigers because it puts them in a good position to improve their team.

 

I am evaluating the trade in a vacuum right now. I think this deal has improved the Rangers more than the Tigers. Projecting what else they will do would not be evaluating it in a vacuum, right? Why are things in a vacuum?

 

Why do you think the Tigers are improved right now? Who is losing his job at second base and who is getting the job at third?

 

Well, if you're saying the cost savings only matter contingent upon their eventual use, you're not evaluating the trade in a vacuum. Saving $75MM is good, even if you then light that money on fire. The saving of the money is good. The burning of it is an entirely different transaction that is bad.

 

Here's why I think the Tigers are better now:

 

1) Kinsler projects as a 3.3 WAR player next year, and Fielder as a 3.7 WAR player.

 

2) The Tigers can move Cabrera from 3B, where he is Daniel Day Lewis in Gangs of New York, to 1B and allow him to DH more often. Apart from the defensive improvements, this will also allow Cabrera to get a little more rest, hopefully keeping him fresher for longer. He did seem to get worn down last year, but who knows if there will be any benefit in this regard to moving him off 3B.

 

3) Kinsler replaces a pure replacement level option at 2B. They had nothing there at all under contract. Hernan Perez would have been the guy. (Projects for 0.0 WAR)

 

4) Cabrera is replaced at third by Nick Castellanos, most likely. He is the Tigers top prospect, and came up as a 3B before switching to the OF so he wouldn't be blocked by Miggy. He is projected as a league average player over 130 games.

 

Seems like a clear improvement. -.4 from the Kinsler/Fielder swap. +1.7 from the Castellanos over replacement level 2B swap. Even ignoring the benefits of finally getting Miggy off 3B, it's a win. Of course, Castellanos would have played a corner outfield spot this year anyway, perhaps taking ABs from Andy Dirks, who put up 1.7 WAR in about 500 PA last year, but projects to be a little worse next year. Moving Castellanos to 3B means you shift PAs from Perez (horrible) to Dirks (fine).

 

Add it all together, I'd say it's conservatively a +1 win improvement, before spending a penny of the Fielder savings.

[mrdannyg 274]

Yeah, but trading Fielder allows them to put a better team on the field, even if the roster stays the same. In terms of resource allocation, they were heavy at 1B/DH, and light elsewhere. Cabrera getting off 3B, where he is really a disaster, and back to 1B where he is only regular bad, is helpful. They had no internal 2B solution. Their top prospect is, ostensibly, a 3B.

 

Plus, the money they save isn't, like, not going to be spent. I can't imagine they'll NOT add pieces with that extra dough

 

Referring to this and your analysis in your most recent post, I think that while evaluating trades in a vacuum is correct, that vacuum must include available options. That helps the Tigers by acknowledging that the freed-up money may well be money they wouldn't have otherwise been in a position to spend, and could be spent on Scherzer, Ellsbury, Choo, Fister, whatever. It hurts the Tiger because there are several solid 2B options out there (Infante, Kendrick and 1-2 more I can't remember), all of whom presumably would've been willing to sign with a contender. There's no way that team goes into the season with Hernan Perez starting, so by getting Kinsler, they missed other opportunities.

 

Considering VMart is probably only a year or two from retirement would normally be another negative on the Tigers side, since Miggy/Prince could've been 1B/DH soon regardless, but with Miggy spending a fair bit of his career at 3B, I'm equally happy keeping the DH slot available for him, if need be, down the road.

 

Still, I really like your analysis and think you nailed the benefits of the trade for Detroit. I could see Texas finishing first by 10 games in that division, or a distant third with so many question marks, so don't really love them piling on $75M in long-term salary when they're not quite at that high point in marginal win value, though they may well see themselves there.

[The Machine 210]

The 2nd base/3rd base stuff for the Tigers is what I had no idea about.

 

But now do that for the Rangers. Mitch Moreland played 140 games at first for the Rangers and had a .299 OBP. And it looks like DH was a bit of a revolving door with Lance Berkman getting the most starts there with about 60 games. What does their big 2B prospect project to be next year?

[NickCave 194]

The 2nd base/3rd base stuff for the Tigers is what I had no idea about.

 

But now do that for the Rangers. Mitch Moreland played 140 games at first for the Rangers and had a .299 OBP. And it looks like DH was a bit of a revolving door with Lance Berkman getting the most starts there with about 60 games. What does their big 2B prospect project to be next year?

 

+1.6 WAR as basically a full time player. Not totally sure if that projects him as a SS or 2B, but I'd guess mostly 2B because that's what he played last year.

 

Fielder projects as a +3 improvement over Moreland, and Profar projects as -1.7 worse than Kinsler, so if you just abra cadabra that stuff, you're looking at about a +1.3 WAR improvement for the Rangers next year, right about in line with the Tigers.

[mrdannyg 274]

Rangers opening up 2B has long-term benefits for the Rangers as well, both for the future development of Profar, but also because they've got a couple minor leaguers (Sardinas, Odor), who can probably take Profar's utility status next year, and are going to be knocking on the door soon, so losing Kinsler improves all their value from a resource allocation perspective.

[The Machine 210]

Jonah Keri: http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/83340/why-the-prince-fielder-ian-kinsler-megadeal-is-a-smart-trade-for-both-the-tigers-and-rangers

[SuitedAces21 2,722]

something going down with the royals today. i've seen trade speculation. not sure. announcement soon, it seems.

 

i'm nervous because when dayton moore makes trades, bad things happen.

[NickCave 194]

something going down with the royals today. i've seen trade speculation. not sure. announcement soon, it seems.

 

i'm nervous because when dayton moore makes trades, bad things happen.

 

Eric Hosmer for Mark Prior. "When you can get a guy with his track record, a number 2 overall pick in the draft, you jump at the opportunity."