dead money 1 Posted February 3, 2010 Share Posted February 3, 2010 Ok, so I have never played a decent buyin live tourney and I am itching to try. My goal is to play the NAPT Mohegan Sun. I obviously need to sat in as I dont have $5k I can blow on one tourney. I can however invest about $750 into trying without crippling my bankroll. My idea is to use that $750 and play the steps. Thats 100 buy ins at step 1. Would I be stupid to think I would have a better than average chance at accomplishing my goal or am I kidding myself. My STT stats are decent. I cash just a shade under 40% of the time and my roi is 13%. Ive played the steps before and have gotten to step 5 a few times, so I understand how tough the competition is at the bigger steps. But is the volume I will be playing enough to offset the fact that I will be overmatched at the higher levels? I would appreciate all feedback. If I find that this is just too -EV of a move I will look at other options. All ideas are also welcome.Thanks. Link to post Share on other sites
Balloon guy 158 Posted February 3, 2010 Share Posted February 3, 2010 Well you could sit on the sidelines and wonder if you could have done it. Link to post Share on other sites
four10 lkc 0 Posted February 3, 2010 Share Posted February 3, 2010 you cash 40% ?? You might want to turn pro... Link to post Share on other sites
Mercury69 3 Posted February 3, 2010 Share Posted February 3, 2010 Go for it Link to post Share on other sites
tbrick412 0 Posted February 3, 2010 Share Posted February 3, 2010 gl Link to post Share on other sites
dead money 1 Posted February 3, 2010 Author Share Posted February 3, 2010 you cash 40% ?? You might want to turn pro...38% to be exact. Is that very good? Its a small sample. Only about 400 sngs. Link to post Share on other sites
GodOfEntropy 0 Posted February 3, 2010 Share Posted February 3, 2010 Do you keep detailed stats on your STT results? Any idea how often you place 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc when playing STTs at the $7.50 and above level? If I knew that along with the award structures for the various steps, I could try to build a probability model for you to give you an idea the likelihood of your success. Link to post Share on other sites
Fade2241 0 Posted February 3, 2010 Share Posted February 3, 2010 nike brah Link to post Share on other sites
bbgun 0 Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 If you have to ask... Link to post Share on other sites
dead money 1 Posted February 4, 2010 Author Share Posted February 4, 2010 If you have to ask...Then what? I ask because Im curious. $750 is a lot of money and I just want to see if Im not crazy to think this would be a good investment. If somebody knew it was a bad idea I would appreciate if they filled me in. Say if someone knew that better players than me couldnt hope to win a seat without 300 buy ins at step 1 then I would know it would be close to hopeless and try a different route. Therefore I have to ask. Link to post Share on other sites
Canary3 1 Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 400 sit n gos is not anywhere near enough to predict an accurate roi. Link to post Share on other sites
PillyPill 0 Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 Let's look at it this way. To be honest and give yourself a chance, let's say you need at least three step 6s to win one, and say you advance for every other one of the steps.Step 6: 3 ticketsStep 5: 6 ticketsStep 4: 12 ticketsStep 3: 24 ticketsStep 2: 48 ticketsStep 1: 96 entries neededIf you think you can run that good, go for it. And good luck. Link to post Share on other sites
tbrick412 0 Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 400 sit n gos is not anywhere near enough to predict an accurate roi.this Link to post Share on other sites
blakheart 3 Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 Do you live near the casino?why not take 4 shots at $200 each to satty in live? The live satty's are going to be way softer.http://newsroom.mohegansun.com/category/gaming Link to post Share on other sites
wildspoke 2 Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 Do you live near the casino?why not take 4 shots at $200 each to satty in live? The live satty's are going to be way softer.http://newsroom.mohegansun.com/category/gaming If you live near M, go Feb 15 it's president day. Bigger field. Bad players. Link to post Share on other sites
chrozzo 19 Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 gl! Link to post Share on other sites
nutzbuster 7 Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 ask Moneymaker if he would take that shot again... Link to post Share on other sites
four10 lkc 0 Posted February 4, 2010 Share Posted February 4, 2010 38% to be exact. Is that very good? Its a small sample. Only about 400 sngs.Well I thought you were talking actual MTT's not SNGs but still... that is a good stat even if it is only 400 which is small. If you can afford it of course you should take a shot at it. Link to post Share on other sites
dead money 1 Posted February 5, 2010 Author Share Posted February 5, 2010 Thanks for the replies. I am going to give it a go. While I dont think I could come even close to maintaining the success it would take to achieve the scenario that pillypill suggests, I do believe that a little luck can go a long way. And while Im not a favorite to get a seat I dont think Im a huge dog. If you guys are interested I will post results so anyone who has similar aspirations has a general idea of what to expect. Link to post Share on other sites
CoolHandKai 0 Posted February 5, 2010 Share Posted February 5, 2010 Thanks for the replies. I am going to give it a go. While I dont think I could come even close to maintaining the success it would take to achieve the scenario that pillypill suggests, I do believe that a little luck can go a long way. And while Im not a favorite to get a seat I dont think Im a huge dog. If you guys are interested I will post results so anyone who has similar aspirations has a general idea of what to expect.Definitely interested in that, even though I don't have the money at the moment to give it a try. I like to play steps every once in a while, though. Link to post Share on other sites
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