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How Realistic Am I Being?


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Ok, so I have never played a decent buyin live tourney and I am itching to try. My goal is to play the NAPT Mohegan Sun. I obviously need to sat in as I dont have $5k I can blow on one tourney. I can however invest about $750 into trying without crippling my bankroll. My idea is to use that $750 and play the steps. Thats 100 buy ins at step 1. Would I be stupid to think I would have a better than average chance at accomplishing my goal or am I kidding myself. My STT stats are decent. I cash just a shade under 40% of the time and my roi is 13%. Ive played the steps before and have gotten to step 5 a few times, so I understand how tough the competition is at the bigger steps. But is the volume I will be playing enough to offset the fact that I will be overmatched at the higher levels? I would appreciate all feedback. If I find that this is just too -EV of a move I will look at other options. All ideas are also welcome.Thanks.

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Do you keep detailed stats on your STT results? Any idea how often you place 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc when playing STTs at the $7.50 and above level? If I knew that along with the award structures for the various steps, I could try to build a probability model for you to give you an idea the likelihood of your success.

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If you have to ask...
Then what? I ask because Im curious. $750 is a lot of money and I just want to see if Im not crazy to think this would be a good investment. If somebody knew it was a bad idea I would appreciate if they filled me in. Say if someone knew that better players than me couldnt hope to win a seat without 300 buy ins at step 1 then I would know it would be close to hopeless and try a different route. Therefore I have to ask.
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Let's look at it this way. To be honest and give yourself a chance, let's say you need at least three step 6s to win one, and say you advance for every other one of the steps.Step 6: 3 ticketsStep 5: 6 ticketsStep 4: 12 ticketsStep 3: 24 ticketsStep 2: 48 ticketsStep 1: 96 entries neededIf you think you can run that good, go for it. And good luck.

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38% to be exact. Is that very good? Its a small sample. Only about 400 sngs.
Well I thought you were talking actual MTT's not SNGs but still... that is a good stat even if it is only 400 which is small. If you can afford it of course you should take a shot at it.
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Thanks for the replies. I am going to give it a go. While I dont think I could come even close to maintaining the success it would take to achieve the scenario that pillypill suggests, I do believe that a little luck can go a long way. And while Im not a favorite to get a seat I dont think Im a huge dog. If you guys are interested I will post results so anyone who has similar aspirations has a general idea of what to expect.

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Thanks for the replies. I am going to give it a go. While I dont think I could come even close to maintaining the success it would take to achieve the scenario that pillypill suggests, I do believe that a little luck can go a long way. And while Im not a favorite to get a seat I dont think Im a huge dog. If you guys are interested I will post results so anyone who has similar aspirations has a general idea of what to expect.
Definitely interested in that, even though I don't have the money at the moment to give it a try. I like to play steps every once in a while, though.
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