Avii 0 Posted January 18, 2010 Share Posted January 18, 2010 On a shorthanded table, I'm never good here right? I have been multitabling, so no reads, and villains probably see me as tight.PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 11 Tournament, 75/150 Blinds (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Replayer from Poker Hands ReplayerButton (t1395)SB (t1230)Avii (BB) (t2710)UTG (t2040)MP (t2130)CO (t3995)Avii's M: 12.04Preflop: Avii is BB with A , K 2 folds, CO bets t385, Button raises to t620, 1 fold, Hero (t0) ? Link to post Share on other sites
XXEddie 0 Posted January 18, 2010 Share Posted January 18, 2010 Shorthanded facing a CO raise and a Button minraise this is an instafistpumpphilhellmuthstyle shove imo. Link to post Share on other sites
Avii 0 Posted January 18, 2010 Author Share Posted January 18, 2010 spoiler:hahaha i think i'm getting too results oriented. tnx for the reply. Link to post Share on other sites
Canary3 1 Posted January 18, 2010 Share Posted January 18, 2010 Easy shove Link to post Share on other sites
Sick Boy 0 Posted January 18, 2010 Share Posted January 18, 2010 Thats a shove. AINEC at all. Shove this all day long. Link to post Share on other sites
SwolyswoND 1 Posted January 18, 2010 Share Posted January 18, 2010 shovel.jpg Link to post Share on other sites
potatoman 0 Posted January 18, 2010 Share Posted January 18, 2010 I fold some of the time. You're good here some of the time, but you're probably not folding everyone and you're going to be flipping a lot. I don't like risking chips when I don't need to in a sng. Link to post Share on other sites
Mercury69 3 Posted January 18, 2010 Share Posted January 18, 2010 Shorthanded facing a CO raise and a Button minraise this is an instafistpumpphilhellmuthstyle shove imo.Yup Link to post Share on other sites
rrumsey 0 Posted January 19, 2010 Share Posted January 19, 2010 insert jpeg of a ship! Link to post Share on other sites
Avii 0 Posted January 20, 2010 Author Share Posted January 20, 2010 No one takes into account that we are in fact the second biggest stack? BTN is surely stacking of, so we would have to go to a showdown for at least half our stack in this situation?And vs. BTN, our hand is very likely a flip by the way he raised, donkish way to get more action imo. Link to post Share on other sites
SwolyswoND 1 Posted January 20, 2010 Share Posted January 20, 2010 No, no one is taking it into account, because1) you're shortstacked2) you most certainly can be better than a flip - you think he never has AQ here?3) once in awhile you get a donk who will actually make this play then fold4) even if you are flipping, you will be getting a very good price to do so. Link to post Share on other sites
monix 0 Posted January 29, 2010 Share Posted January 29, 2010 Interesting spot. Generally I am not looking to flip with so many players left in a STT.I dusted off my ICM calculator to see what the math suggests.I - Hero's equity before the hand is 19.9%II - Folding Scenarios1) If the initial raiser folds, our equity becomes 18.9%If the initial raiser pushes and is called (I'll only do these two scenarios):2) If the initial raiser wins our equity is 20.7%3) If the initial raiser loses our equity is 16.6%III - We push scenarios4) If no one calls our equity becomes 25.1%Initial raiser folds, raiser calls (only two scenarios here as well):5) If we win our equity becomes 29.1%6) If we lose our equity becomes 10.8%Now let’s assign some probabilities and calculate weighted averages::Folding Scenarios1) Pretty likely, say 66%2) I’ll split the difference with the remaining 2; 16%3) 16% Our equity is (18.9% * 66%) + (20.7% * 16%) + (16.6% * 16%) = 18.4%Pushing Scenarios4) Pretty unlikely; say 10%We have to use PokerStove to see what our equity against Villains range is. With that fishy raise let’s assume TT+, AQs, AQo, and Hero is a 51/49 dog (this is about as good as it gets, it we add more pairs and/or eliminate AQ we become a pretty big dog).5) 51%6) 49%Our equity is (25.1%*10%)+(29.1%*51%)+(10.8%*49%) = 22.6%If we remove AQ, the range becomes TT+, AKs, AKo, we become a 59.6/40.4 dog:Our equity is (25.1%*10%)+(29.1%*40.4%)+(10.8%*59.6%) = 20.7%If we remove AK, JJ and TT, the range becomes QQ+, we become a 69.1/30.9 dog:Our equity is (25.1%*10%)+(29.1%*30.9%)+(10.8%*69.1%) = 18.6%SummaryIt all comes down to what range do we put the raiser on, and how we allocate probabilities, but the numbers suggest that a push is +ceV….but it is close. Folding is not much of a mistake. Link to post Share on other sites
TrueAce13 18 Posted January 29, 2010 Share Posted January 29, 2010 No folding is a horrible move here. We have 19bbs and we have an open. Openers range is a lot wider than you give credit. This is always a shove, no questions...this is a very standard shove, and i think OP knows this Link to post Share on other sites
monix 0 Posted January 29, 2010 Share Posted January 29, 2010 No folding is a horrible move here. We have 19bbs and we have an open. Openers range is a lot wider than you give credit. This is always a shove, no questions...this is a very standard shove, and i think OP knows thisOk...suggest a range and do the math to show us folding is horrible. Link to post Share on other sites
TrueAce13 18 Posted January 29, 2010 Share Posted January 29, 2010 openers range: any pair, A6s+, A9o+, KTs+, KJo plusWe have to remember that the CO raised and the button 3bet, which can a lot of the time be a steal and a lot lighter of a range...but i will narrow it down a little...his is prolly ATs+,99+, and KJs+.We also have to realize that this is a tournament, and like everyone sucks...so they are doing this with a huge range. We have wayyyy more than enough Not to mention the sheer fact that we only have 19bbs and we have AK! Link to post Share on other sites
monix 0 Posted January 29, 2010 Share Posted January 29, 2010 openers range: any pair, A6s+, A9o+, KTs+, KJo plusWe have to remember that the CO raised and the button 3bet, which can a lot of the time be a steal and a lot lighter of a range...but i will narrow it down a little...his is prolly ATs+,99+, and KJs+.We also have to realize that this is a tournament, and like everyone sucks...so they are doing this with a huge range. We have wayyyy more than enough Not to mention the sheer fact that we only have 19bbs and we have AK!Pushing AKs pre-flop knocked me out of the Main Event, so I may be biased against it Ok, now do the math with your ranges. Link to post Share on other sites
SwolyswoND 1 Posted January 29, 2010 Share Posted January 29, 2010 Monix, you're fighting a losing battle here. This is an EZ shove.I don't have time to do the math against those ranges, but it's very very +cEV and +$EV. Link to post Share on other sites
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