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Deep Impact (was A Dumb Movie) (sh) (1/2)


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Fold the turn. His hand in the flop is a set a TON. His turn bet pretty much seals it. He's going to check overpairs, the smallish turn bet is to "convince" you he is weak and that he is scared of the flush.

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there are still some donks, but there are some really good players at this level, we have no idea what this villain is. Think for a second, we are so lost in this hand. Why is it far fetched to think we are being out played to the point that this what villain wants? I fold because our hand is weak given the huge amount of action, not because of the level we are playing. Think past level one we have a flush we stack off,... what do we beat? not much of anything, maybe maybe an overpair but it is so standard for that to try and protect against the flush that i rule it out.

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Fold the turn. His hand in the flop is a set a TON. His turn bet pretty much seals it. He's going to check overpairs, the smallish turn bet is to "convince" you he is weak and that he is scared of the flush.
I think this is probably what needs to happen. That said, I wasn't sure at the time that he'd check overpairs. Like...I was really worried that he could play AA/KK like this. When I check/called the turn and checked the river, I feel like my hand doesn't look like a flush at all. I really didn't think he had a flush...which pretty much left him with houses, quads, and overpairs...probably heavily weighted towards the former two. I felt like I sort of came to my senses and folded the river...but I obviously wasn't happy with how I played the hand.
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Fwiw, villain's stats over ~450 hands...37.2/16.9/3.19 with a 3bet% of 4.5.Okay...so figuring that he might be taking a stab with an overpair or overplayed hand, I call.River :club: ($426)Cobalt checks, Villain goes all-in somewhat quickly for $274, Cobalt ?
the all in doesnt make any sense unless he has a boat and is just praying you might pay him off. But i dunno. I'm so confused with this hand now because of his stats.If you didnt post stats its a fold turn for me. As played, i'm lost but calling river. Because i think we're ahead of enough of his range to make it profitable.
Fold the turn. His hand in the flop is a set a TON. His turn bet pretty much seals it. He's going to check overpairs, the smallish turn bet is to "convince" you he is weak and that he is scared of the flush.
agianst an average player, or an unknown, this is my line. which was the same as my first instinct and with The post by Tskillzhowever, doesnt the "37.2/16.9/3.19 with a 3bet% of 4.5." over 450 hands sorta tell us that this probably isnt a flopped set?I'm really bad at pokertracker, but its my understanding that our flush is huge vs this villain?
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there are still some donks, but there are some really good players at this level, we have no idea what this villain is. Think for a second, we are so lost in this hand. Why is it far fetched to think we are being out played to the point that this what villain wants? I fold because our hand is weak given the huge amount of action, not because of the level we are playing. Think past level one we have a flush we stack off,... what do we beat? not much of anything, maybe maybe an overpair but it is so standard for that to try and protect against the flush that i rule it out.
if you were really thinking on multiple levels here as villain, you wouldnt put us on a flush often enough to make a river shove become value.Cobalt is aggro, so you have 2 aggro's going up vs each other. This is a recipe for a big hand to be played out with minimal holdings IMO.seriously, almost 40% flops seen over 450 hands.if this is a cooler, well shit.. nothing we can do. (IMO of course)
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if you were really thinking on multiple levels here as villain, you wouldnt put us on a flush often enough to make a river shove become value.Cobalt is aggro, so you have 2 aggro's going up vs each other. This is a recipe for a big hand to be played out with minimal holdings IMO.seriously, almost 40% flops seen over 450 hands.if this is a cooler, well shit.. nothing we can do. (IMO of course)
This is what stood out at me, and really widens villains range. that being said...him having a random but bigger flush than ours is probably most likely. But like you said...villain has made bets on every street that make absolutely zero sense. The only one that might've made any sense was turn bet, until i saw his HEM stats. So i think i agree with royal here and probably call this river, not happy bout it, just like i wouldnt be happy about folding the turn, but man, brutal hand to try and dissect.
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agianst an average player, or an unknown, this is my line. which was the same as my first instinct and with The post by Tskillzhowever, doesnt the "37.2/16.9/3.19 with a 3bet% of 4.5." over 450 hands sorta tell us that this probably isnt a flopped set?I'm really bad at pokertracker, but its my understanding that our flush is huge vs this villain?
Don't get me wrong these stats indicate he's pretty bad, like he's playing a lot of hands. And he is apparently minraising a lot of flops, but people don't 4bet flops weak and if they do, he wouldn't make the price so nice. Like even terrible people understand that a bigger bet is going to get more folds than a smaller one.Once he 4bets I put him on sets or like the nut flush draw, or a combo draw, or like QQh, KKh, AAh. There's just not much we beat at all onthis flop. Getting the sick price on the 4bet I'd prob call and then bet small on both streets because he's never folding a set and he's never shoving it either imo. So we can get value when we're ahead and fold when he shoves.
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Don't get me wrong these stats indicate he's pretty bad, like he's playing a lot of hands. And he is apparently minraising a lot of flops, but people don't 4bet flops weak and if they do, he wouldn't make the price so nice. Like even terrible people understand that a bigger bet is going to get more folds than a smaller one.Once he 4bets I put him on sets or like the nut flush draw, or a combo draw, or like QQh, KKh, AAh. There's just not much we beat at all onthis flop. Getting the sick price on the 4bet I'd prob call and then bet small on both streets because he's never folding a set and he's never shoving it either imo. So we can get value when we're ahead and fold when he shoves.
I really like this line
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Don't get me wrong these stats indicate he's pretty bad, like he's playing a lot of hands. And he is apparently minraising a lot of flops, but people don't 4bet flops weak and if they do, he wouldn't make the price so nice. Like even terrible people understand that a bigger bet is going to get more folds than a smaller one.Once he 4bets I put him on sets or like the nut flush draw, or a combo draw, or like QQh, KKh, AAh. There's just not much we beat at all onthis flop. Getting the sick price on the 4bet I'd prob call and then bet small on both streets because he's never folding a set and he's never shoving it either imo. So we can get value when we're ahead and fold when he shoves.
we are in agreeance on how the hand should be played. But i still cant help but get lost in the stats and previous hands cobalt posted with this villain.The reason is, because of the small priced in bets, i expect us to get to showdown by just check/calling cheap bets. I didnt think a blocker bet was necessary.But thenn he shoves river. so its like. WTF? I've seen this type of shit done often enough to want to fold, but at the same time with the info its a "uuuugh"but meh, i think its also hard to play this hand without knowing Cobalts image.. because I'm pretty sure Cobalt is a weapon out there.(p.S. - if we fire the turn like you suggest and he flats. and we fire the river again, and he shoves. arent we priced in?)
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(p.S. - if we fire the turn like you suggest and he flats. and we fire the river again, and he shoves. arent we priced in?)
too lazy to look at stack sizes but I'd say no. Even if we had like $10 I'd fold. He's just never going to have something worse when he takes that line, so I don't care how great of odds we're getting cuz we're behind 100% imo.
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