To Raise, Or Not To Raise

[fakepoo 0]

I don't have the hand history but I can tell you what I know. This is from a $25 heads up sit-n-go on Cake.Hero has JcTh in SB. Blinds are 10/20. Hero has 1300 in chips and villain covers. No reads on villain yet.Preflop:Hero raises to 40. Villain calls.Flop (80): AsQd4sVillains bets 60. Hero raises to 180. Villain calls.Turn (440): [AsQd4s]KhVillain checks. Hero bets 325. Villain calls.River (1090): [AsQd4sKh]8sVillain bets 250. Hero?On the river, hero has 755 left. My thoughts: Normally in a game like this, if villain makes his flush it is a standard shove. But, this bet makes me think he does not have spades. Does anyone shove the river for value here?

[SGFULTON83 0]

I don't have the hand history but I can tell you what I know. This is from a $25 heads up sit-n-go on Cake.Hero has JcTh in SB. Blinds are 10/20. Hero has 1300 in chips and villain covers. No reads on villain yet.Preflop:Hero raises to 40. Villain calls.Flop (80): AsQd4sVillains bets 60. Hero raises to 180. Villain calls.Turn (440): [AsQd4s]KhVillain checks. Hero bets 325. Villain calls.River (1090): [AsQd4sKh]8sVillain bets 250. Hero?On the river, hero has 755 left. My thoughts: Normally in a game like this, if villain makes his flush it is a standard shove. But, this bet makes me think he does not have spades. Does anyone shove the river for value here?

Yes, I shove this river all day long.

[hartman72 0]

I don't really understand the min raise preflop, but I suppose that's not critical to the hand. I personally would just call here....the pot is huge already and I really don't like pushing here.

[fakepoo 0]

I don't really understand the min raise preflop, but I suppose that's not critical to the hand. I personally would just call here....the pot is huge already and I really don't like pushing here.

The minraise preflop is a personal preference. I want my opponent in there with hands that I dominate. So, if I minraise with T9, I want my opponent calling me with 96 for example. If I were to 3x my T9, my opponent is more likely to fold 96. As for the river, the problem is that if there is no flush, we have the nuts. The standard move for a rivered flush with the given stack sizes would be to shove all in. Since the villain did not shove, can he still have a flush? Will he call a shove with two pair? Just calling this river lets two pair off the hook.

[donk4life 34]

The minraise preflop is a personal preference. I want my opponent in there with hands that I dominate. So, if I minraise with T9, I want my opponent calling me with 96 for example. If I were to 3x my T9, my opponent is more likely to fold 96. As for the river, the problem is that if there is no flush, we have the nuts. The standard move for a rivered flush with the given stack sizes would be to shove all in. Since the villain did not shove, can he still have a flush? Will he call a shove with two pair? Just calling this river lets two pair off the hook.

Usually smaller bets don't correlate to the nuts in these spots. They're usually blocker bets trying to see a cheap showdown. Raising all in here seems to be the best option. Also, the minraise preflop is fine, really just a player preference.

[dingas 0]

well the thing is that if he doesn't have the flush what does he have that will pay off a raise? Just flat call and if you lose you live to fight another day.

[lurbz 2]

well the thing is that if he doesn't have the flush what does he have that will pay off a raise? Just flat call and if you lose you live to fight another day.

flopped/turned set

[Tarvold 0]

I think a shove would be your best option, based on how it went down. I think if the villain hit his flush he would shove HU like you said. Depending on how I felt about the villain though, I may just call. Does he seem like he would bet a flush like that?

[fakepoo 0]

I think a shove would be your best option, based on how it went down. I think if the villain hit his flush he would shove HU like you said. Depending on how I felt about the villain though, I may just call. Does he seem like he would bet a flush like that?

Based on villain's likely holdings, it does not look like villain can have a set. Doesn't a set put in a raise somewhere? So, I guess the question is whether villain can call with 2-pair or not. If he can't call me with 2-pair but can still have a flush some small percentage of the time, is it worth the risk to shove here?After all the discussion, I still believe that a shove is good here because even if he can't call, he really should hardly ever have a flush here and we should give him a chance to make a bad hero call.Results: Hero shoved and villain called with a flush. Hero now has a note on Villain for future reference.

[lurbz 2]

Based on villain's likely holdings, it does not look like villain can have a set. Doesn't a set put in a raise somewhere? So, I guess the question is whether villain can call with 2-pair or not. If he can't call me with 2-pair but can still have a flush some small percentage of the time, is it worth the risk to shove here?After all the discussion, I still believe that a shove is good here because even if he can't call, he really should hardly ever have a flush here and we should give him a chance to make a bad hero call.Results: Hero shoved and villain called with a flush. Hero now has a note on Villain for future reference.

I must be one of the worst HU players of all time if a set is not in his holdings here.He's prob putting you on an A after your flop raise, if there's a set a flat and check/call on the turn is a super standard trap play. It's a bit of a draw board to do that on, but being early on in the SNG he may be looking for a home-run-ball pot here like some guys do. The small river bet SCREAMS set to me, or at least monster hand, it's a horribly placed value bet that's such a trap for any 2 pair/straight in this spot.I've played a bit and I've seen a lot more sets with this kind of play than anything else.

[SwolyswoND 1]

If villain has a set here, he played it terribly. A set would really really have to raise the turn, if not the flop. I don't think villain ever has a set here and so I just call the river.

[fakepoo 0]

I must be one of the worst HU players of all time if a set is not in his holdings here.He's prob putting you on an A after your flop raise, if there's a set a flat and check/call on the turn is a super standard trap play. It's a bit of a draw board to do that on, but being early on in the SNG he may be looking for a home-run-ball pot here like some guys do. The small river bet SCREAMS set to me, or at least monster hand, it's a horribly placed value bet that's such a trap for any 2 pair/straight in this spot.I've played a bit and I've seen a lot more sets with this kind of play than anything else.

Once he smooth calls the turn, he no longer can have a set. If he had a set there, he would have raised because he will want to get his money in before the river brings a scare card that loses him action or loses him the pot. I really don't think there is any question about it. Especially since Hero bet so much on the turn. It's pretty much an automatic shove with so much money in the pot.

[XXEddie 0]

If villain has a set here, he played it terribly. A set would really really have to raise the turn, if not the flop. I don't think villain ever has a set here and so I just call the river.

This is excatly my thinking. We are good 80% of the time. However the 20% we are beat we are always getting called if we shove, obv. Whereas maybe 5-10% of the hands we do beat call. Shoving just doesn't make sense.