Rcooj_7's Daily Sports Picks!

[Tactical Bear 3]

A few quick notes, Rcooj:If you want your record to be taken seriously, you have to post the price along with the number. Are you telling us you really got Jets-3 -110, Rockets-8.5 -110, and Warriors-2.5 -110 today? I believe you got on the Warriors and Rockets before they jumped, but the Jets? You sure? At 8AM EST, Pinny had the Jets game at Jets-3 -113. Around 6PM, they moved it to Jets -3.5 -103. It closed somewhere around -3.5 -110. Bodog had the game up at Jets-3 -130 around 4 afternoon, and I think it closed at -3 -140.

[Tactical Bear 3]

It's kind of funny that you're talking about finding value in lines that are inflated by one-sided action, but still just can't stop yourself from loading up on classic, ultra-public sides.

[rcooj_7 0]

A few quick notes, Rcooj:If you want your record to be taken seriously, you have to post the price along with the number. Are you telling us you really got Jets-3 -110, Rockets-8.5 -110, and Warriors-2.5 -110 today? I believe you got on the Warriors and Rockets before they jumped, but the Jets? You sure? At 8AM EST, Pinny had the Jets game at Jets-3 -113. Around 6PM, they moved it to Jets -3.5 -103. It closed somewhere around -3.5 -110. Bodog had the game up at Jets-3 -130 around 4 afternoon, and I think it closed at -3 -140.

Good point, but i took the Rockets not the warriors and got it at -105. Jets -3 -120. Nuggets -8.5 -110.and i never said i was basing my picks STRICKLY betting against public lines. I am not saying that I wont be getting onto your site, where they exchange wagers. I looked into it a lot last night. Ive got my cash tied up on Bodog right now... ill switch it over soon.are you saying you dont like the 6 unit sytem?

[rcooj_7 0]

It's kind of funny that you're talking about finding value in lines that are inflated by one-sided action, but still just can't stop yourself from loading up on classic, ultra-public sides.

You have this way about you that really kills my emotions. haha

[rcooj_7 0]

First off: no. If lines were regularly off by that much -- seven full points in an NFL game -- and you don't need the benefit of hindsight to see it the smart money would hammer them so hard that the books would get absolutely crushed. These markets aren't efficient, but they're not so inefficient that the books can offer sides with an expected value of, like, +25%. There are people with deep pockets that force sportsbooks to not stray too far out of line with the numbers they post. Secondly, if you are really serious about making money, stop paying -110, and start thinking about what you want to do with your bankroll. I took like 3 seconds and built a little simulation. Here are the results: You're a genius. You pick winners at a 54% clip. 40,000 wagers/simulation. I ran it 5 times at -110: $25/wager, paying -110: $34,892.50 $35,102.50 $31,427.50 $36,887.50 $29,065.00 Average $33,475.00 $/wager $0.84 Then again, except we're now paying -105: -105 $57,512.50 $59,152.50 $56,231.25 $60,433.75 $51,875.00 Average $57,041.00 $/wager $1.43 It's not that hard to pay -105. And it's well worth your time. Then, for funsies, I decided to build another simulation. Instead of betting $25/game, you start with $2500, and each wager is 1% of your bankroll: -110 $28,044.78 $80,187.39 $10,229.35 $6,443.12 $14,019.23 Average $27,784.77 -105$113,421.26 $106,654.14 $115,771.07 $26,448.35 $88,680.38 Average: $90,195.04 Whoops. I forgot to mention something. This one? With the bankroll compounding? I only ran it 6,000 times apiece, as opposed to the 40,000 from the non-compounded sample. The last piece of data: $/wager (-110): $4.63 $/wager (-105): $15.03 There we go. Next time: The Importance of Variance OR Why You Don't Use a 1x-6x Unit System

A few quick notes, Rcooj:If you want your record to be taken seriously, you have to post the price along with the number. Are you telling us you really got Jets-3 -110, Rockets-8.5 -110, and Warriors-2.5 -110 today? I believe you got on the Warriors and Rockets before they jumped, but the Jets? You sure? At 8AM EST, Pinny had the Jets game at Jets-3 -113. Around 6PM, they moved it to Jets -3.5 -103. It closed somewhere around -3.5 -110. Bodog had the game up at Jets-3 -130 around 4 afternoon, and I think it closed at -3 -140.

It's kind of funny that you're talking about finding value in lines that are inflated by one-sided action, but still just can't stop yourself from loading up on classic, ultra-public sides.

This is the stuff I love, trading info is what we need at FCP, help make us all winners at sportsbetting. I love the critisism too. I am not trying to turn this into a brag post or anything like that, i just want to encourage the critisim and share info that is out there. Are you betting for a living Tactical?

[Tactical Bear 3]

This is the stuff I love, trading info is what we need at FCP, help make us all winners at sportsbetting. I love the critisism too. I am not trying to turn this into a brag post or anything like that, i just want to encourage the critisim and share info that is out there. Are you betting for a living Tactical?

No, but I take the process very seriously, and am willing to wager (har har) that, in the last 12 months, I've spent more time thinking about the sports-wagering than any five people on this board. My problems with your approach are:1) If you believe books are exploitative, and public action inflates the lines, then you must grant that you're sometimes betting into negative EV lines when you take public sides. 2) You pay -110, and that's bad policy.3) Despite your enthusiasm, I don't believe you have any idea of the math, nor any reasonable conception of your edge. I've had +100x and -100x stretches in the last year on sides/totals without ever putting more than 2.5% of my bankroll on a given play. The one thing I never do is point to my record and say "See here? This means I'm a winning player." The break-even player, assuming he's playing -110, will pick winners at a 52.381% clip. Run a simulation over 500 wagers with a player who has a real edge, who picks winners at 53%. I just popped those numbers in, and this guy is a loser reasonably often, as you'll see below.Now this guy ran bad, obviously, but that's what you're dealing with. Variance is huge. This guy has a 1.18% edge; for every 27.50/25 wager he makes, his EV is +$0.325. And in 6 random samples, he ended up a loser in 4 of them. Just be careful and humble, because variance has made a loooot of longterm suckers in Las Vegas. (382.50) 772.50 (1,590.00) 615.00 (225.00) (277.50)

[Tactical Bear 3]

EDIT: I should add that the +100x and -100x swings were the result of playing too much volume for a while. I have been getting tighter and tighter over the last 8 months or so. I have a lot of questions about the market that I'm trying to answer; until I do, I'll tend towards conservatism when picking sides. (Futures, however, are another matter. I have been getting looser and looser in the futures market, which is probably the natural result when a degenerate tries to tighten up. Arizona State really needs to win the PAC 10 in hoops this year, and -- assuming I don't sell the position off -- my bankroll will quadruple if Villanova wins it all. When I saw 36-1 pop up in April/May my first reaction was, "Oh man, I should just unload on this thing." Then I thought, "Wait a minute, I must be missing something." Then I thought, "Well, I don't think there's any chance it's going to end up at, like, 40-1 or something, and it might end up at 25-1 or 20-1 by December, so I can bet a little on it." Then I thought, "How much do I have over at The Greek? I can probably just transfer all of that and just hit this for the max at a few places." I ended up drilling them at Bodog, too, just because I hate those assholes, and 30-1 at Bodog will be much sweeter than 35-1 at 5Dimes or Sportsbook or something.Whatever, to make a long story longer: I can really talk myself into going off on futures, and I have some very significant position on 'Nova to win it all. The Hepatitis thing was a bit of a bummer, but I can still probably turn this into a freeroll without much effort. If they end up as 1 seed, I'll just hope I can sell 1/3 of it off at 1-10 or so, and take a risk-free shot at a huge score. I won't, though. I'll let it ride because 2008 Kansas ruined my ability to make rational decisions.)

[MaxStPolish 4]

Whatever, to make a long story longer: I can really talk myself into going off on futures, and I have some very significant position on 'Nova to win it all. The Hepatitis thing was a bit of a bummer, but I can still probably turn this into a freeroll without much effort. If they end up as 1 seed, I'll just hope I can sell 1/3 of it off at 1-10 or so, and take a risk-free shot at a huge score. I won't, though. I'll let it ride because 2008 Kansas ruined my ability to make rational decisions.)

How couldn't you sell off here in this situation. Granted I typically gravitate to conservatism when possible.....but i just don't see how you couldn't hedge and freeroll 2/3rds of your play in a situation like this where you are still so relatively far from the all or nothing pull of winning a 65 team tourney?Just curious from the well-thought mentality, which you clearly exhibit, as I think it would almost be a quasi-reckless play to let it ride here in full.

[Tactical Bear 3]

How couldn't you sell off here in this situation. Granted I typically gravitate to conservatism when possible.....but i just don't see how you couldn't hedge and freeroll 2/3rds of your play in a situation like this where you are still so relatively far from the all or nothing pull of winning a 65 team tourney?Just curious from the well-thought mentality, which you clearly exhibit, as I think it would almost be a quasi-reckless play to let it ride here in full.

Because, in the longrun, hedging costs money. Example using made up numbers:I have $100 on the Colts to win the Superbowl at 100-1. They are trading at 1:1 when the playoffs start. I can bet $5050 against the Colts to win $5050, and I am indifferent to the result. Colts win it all, and I'm +10,000 - 5050 = +4950. Colts lose and I'm +5050 - 100 = +4950. But "profitable result indifference" is not the same as "optimal." If the "Colts to lose the Superbowl" is trading at 1:1, then the true price is certainly worse than that. There's juice built in. 1:1 implies even money, or a 50%/50% proposition. Let's say they actually have only a 45% chance of losing. My equity now looks like this: Equity of original future (.55 x 10000 - .45 x 100) = +5455My hedge costs me $505.This completely ignores the logistical problems that go along with laying off large positions. In the example above, that involves actually placing a 5K+ wager. If the colts were trading at 4-1, you'd still have a ton of equity, but now you'd have to put up 8K to monetize it.And etc.

[MaxStPolish 4]

Because, in the longrun, hedging costs money. Example using made up numbers:I have $100 on the Colts to win the Superbowl at 100-1. They are trading at 1:1 when the playoffs start. I can bet $5050 against the Colts to win $5050, and I am indifferent to the result. Colts win it all, and I'm +10,000 - 5050 = +4950. Colts lose and I'm +5050 - 100 = +4950. But "profitable result indifference" is not the same as "optimal." If the "Colts to lose the Superbowl" is trading at 1:1, then the true price is certainly worse than that. There's juice built in. 1:1 implies even money, or a 50%/50% proposition. Let's say they actually have only a 45% chance of losing. My equity now looks like this: Equity of original future (.55 x 10000 - .45 x 100) = +5455My hedge costs me $505.This completely ignores the logistical problems that go along with laying off large positions. In the example above, that involves actually placing a 5K+ wager. If the colts were trading at 4-1, you'd still have a ton of equity, but now you'd have to put up 8K to monetize it.And etc.

Gotcha, I was just thinking w/ regard to your prior specific matter, if you have 'nova locked in as pretty deep dog for a hefty futures bet, and their season-long performance was good enough that your futures bet tripled in value, in a situation where even if the team is looking fantastic, odds are they are still under 33% likely to win the 65 team tourney, so unloading 1/3 to recoup initial investment and freeroll seems like the smart money play.I'm sure 33% isn't necessarily the key number here, because since you've got them at such a long shot odds, you could seemingly be giving up a lot of value in hedging....but I see it as an opportunity I guess. I could be way off.

[slink 1]

Thoughts on these games?Cin -7MinSDDallas -3Ari -3.5SF

[Tactical Bear 3]

Thoughts on these games?Cin -7MinSDDallas -3Ari -3.5SF

I have absolutely zero lean on the first game. It opened at 6.5, drew splitish action (Cincy probably got like 60% or so), and has steadily crept towards 7.0, though it hasn't gotten there, except at the square books. Still, market looks like about Cincy+6.5 (+105) Minny-6.5(-105). I think the sharps like Minnesota at 6.5, but I'm not sure of the volume. One of my random outs had it at Minnesota-6, so I hit that pretty hard. Probably a pretty tight line. I think it will close at Minny-7 unless one of the syndicates gets ahold of it.I have a really strong Dallas lean, here. I hit the opener of Dallas-3 (+105) at bookmaker for a standard-play amount. I knew San Diego was going to be public, but this is the kind of game where sharp action will neutralize or outweigh public money, and all the sharps are going to bang the fuck out of Dallas-3. The books won't be able to get too far out of line, or the sharps will drill them back. Either way, I really like Dallas-3 here, and would probably play them at -110 if you can get it.As for the last game, I lean SF, but I might not play it. It's moving, and I haven't followed it too closely. Give me SF+3.5 (-105) and I'll get down, probably. It's been creeping towards four pretty steadily, so my guess is the books are going to keep sliding it along until they hit the resistance point where the sharper players can no longer pass. If I see Pinny move it back down really quick, I'll try to get it before it drops everywhere else. Gut reaction: it gets as high as SF+4 (+100), and closes at SF+3.5 (-102) or so. Playing Arizona would be foolish, obviously.

[rcooj_7 0]

ugh, i am tempted to start posting again.... 4-0-1 last two days for $400

[BigLebowski 0]

ugh, i am tempted to start posting again.... 4-0-1 last two days for $400

Does that mean it's been really ugly for the last 3 weeks?

[rcooj_7 0]

ok, my big update..... I changed the way i looked at my bets on the 18th of december.... since that day, i have gone 59-48-3 which to my rusty numbers is somewhere around 55% (am i wrong?) which is very fair.... My bets have ranged from $20 to $200. I have gone away from the 6 unit sytem and have started a 10% and 5% br system. (after talking to my "guy" he suggested that this is best for the limited br) the bets that were down to $20 were emotional/not as much research picks. or picks that i get from other cappers.... I have NOT capped all of my games, a good portion of my games have been favorites of pro cappers. I wish i could take credit for them all, that isnt the point though it is all aobut the bottom line!!! Money!!!I was skeptical about sharing my actual BR, but this is a decent community and i really dont care that much...110 wagers59-48-3 recordStarted at $1,000 on Dec 18thNow at $1,435.34 as of january 16thwith $7,770.56 in total wages thoughts?questions?

[savagerebel 0]

That is almost enough to pay for rent this month. Keep it up.

[rcooj_7 0]

Went 4/4 yesterdayhad Vikings first halfvikings -3Jets +9Ball st (whatever the spread was)at 1,770ish$400 of it pending today....

[Tactical Bear 3]

ok, my big update..... I changed the way i looked at my bets on the 18th of december.... since that day, i have gone 59-48-3 which to my rusty numbers is somewhere around 55% (am i wrong?) which is very fair.... My bets have ranged from $20 to $200. I have gone away from the 6 unit sytem and have started a 10% and 5% br system. (after talking to my "guy" he suggested that this is best for the limited br) the bets that were down to $20 were emotional/not as much research picks. or picks that i get from other cappers.... I have NOT capped all of my games, a good portion of my games have been favorites of pro cappers. I wish i could take credit for them all, that isnt the point though it is all aobut the bottom line!!! Money!!!I was skeptical about sharing my actual BR, but this is a decent community and i really dont care that much...110 wagers59-48-3 recordStarted at $1,000 on Dec 18thNow at $1,435.34 as of january 16thwith $7,770.56 in total wages thoughts?questions?

1) You're putting way too much of your roll on the line with each play. You are very likely to go bust. If you're truly picking at a 55% clip, then the optimal wager size -- assuming you're only concerned with asymptotic wealth-- about 5.5% of your bankroll on each play. I think a 2.6% edge is incredibly optimistic, however; you're annihilating the book if you're pushing a constant 1%-1.5% edge. If your winrate is actually a little closer to, say, 53.5% -- still very, very good -- then you should be risking approximately 2.3% of your bankroll on each play. Overbetting is always worse than underbetting (which I can prove , but for now you'll just have to trust me that betting more than the optimal amount will increase the probability of a bad result, and decrease the probability of a good result, more severely than would underbetting by the same fraction), so if you don't have a perfect understanding of your true winrate, you should err on the side of conservatism. That is: if you think you're a 53.5% winner, bet as if you're a 53.2% winner. A 53.2% winner is going to want to fire about 1.7% of his bankroll at each number. 5% of bankroll per wager is suboptimal, and increases your potential risk of ruin, EVEN IF YOU'RE A BIG WINNER. Besides that, if you start making mistakes -- if your methodology becomes flawed for whatever reason, or if the market corrects for an inefficiency you're exploiting -- you're going to go broke before you can figure it out. 2) In 2008, after adjusting for the change in my unit-size during the course of the year, and after after accounting for the varying sizes of my bets (based on what I'm almost certain was an arbitrary set of "criteria"), we can say I bet TO WIN 1x every play (on sides and totals, at about a 9-1 ratio) during the MLB season. I ended up posting profits of more than 135 units. I would not be surprised if every person who reads this post -- myself included -- spent the rest of his life trying to match that number, and never came close. It was an absurd, infinitesimally-likely season. During that magical 2008 season, I had plenty of 100-wager stretches where I looked like a giant turd. I also had 100-wager stretches where I looked like God's Gift to Bases. In 2009 I finished +19x. I would take +19x every year again for the rest of my life. I'd borrow 200K, and never have to work again. If you averaged my two seasons together, I'd still look like one of the best bases cappers on the planet, and that's just not the case. What I'm saying is: Even after two full seasons of a high-volume sport, I'm unwilling to say I'm a winning player, let alone that I'm a BIG winning player. You've made fewer than 110 bets. Don't assume you're a winner because of it.

Went 4/4 yesterdayhad Vikings first halfvikings -3Jets +9Ball st (whatever the spread was)at 1,770ish$400 of it pending today....

No. Stop doing this. (I realize I just informed everyone of what my bases record was in 2008 while offering zero substantiation, but I was just trying to prove a point.) Post your plays before they happen; post the juice; post the, uh, spread; post the amount risked. If you're serious about getting better, post your plays somewhere public every day, and define your record based only on what you can prove. It's easy to lie to others, and not that much harder to lie to yourself. God knows I've been guilty of it. The easiest way to keep yourself honest is to force yourself to be honest, but tying your hands and posting your plays before they go off.

[rcooj_7 0]

1) You're putting way too much of your roll on the line with each play. You are very likely to go bust. If you're truly picking at a 55% clip, then the optimal wager size -- assuming you're only concerned with asymptotic wealth-- about 5.5% of your bankroll on each play. I think a 2.6% edge is incredibly optimistic, however; you're annihilating the book if you're pushing a constant 1%-1.5% edge. If your winrate is actually a little closer to, say, 53.5% -- still very, very good -- then you should be risking approximately 2.3% of your bankroll on each play. Overbetting is always worse than underbetting (which I can prove , but for now you'll just have to trust me that betting more than the optimal amount will increase the probability of a bad result, and decrease the probability of a good result, more severely than would underbetting by the same fraction), so if you don't have a perfect understanding of your true winrate, you should err on the side of conservatism. That is: if you think you're a 53.5% winner, bet as if you're a 53.2% winner. A 53.2% winner is going to want to fire about 1.7% of his bankroll at each number. 5% of bankroll per wager is suboptimal, and increases your potential risk of ruin, EVEN IF YOU'RE A BIG WINNER. Besides that, if you start making mistakes -- if your methodology becomes flawed for whatever reason, or if the market corrects for an inefficiency you're exploiting -- you're going to go broke before you can figure it out. 2) In 2008, after adjusting for the change in my unit-size during the course of the year, and after after accounting for the varying sizes of my bets (based on what I'm almost certain was an arbitrary set of "criteria"), we can say I bet TO WIN 1x every play (on sides and totals, at about a 9-1 ratio) during the MLB season. I ended up posting profits of more than 135 units. I would not be surprised if every person who reads this post -- myself included -- spent the rest of his life trying to match that number, and never came close. It was an absurd, infinitesimally-likely season. During that magical 2008 season, I had plenty of 100-wager stretches where I looked like a giant turd. I also had 100-wager stretches where I looked like God's Gift to Bases. In 2009 I finished +19x. I would take +19x every year again for the rest of my life. I'd borrow 200K, and never have to work again. If you averaged my two seasons together, I'd still look like one of the best bases cappers on the planet, and that's just not the case. What I'm saying is: Even after two full seasons of a high-volume sport, I'm unwilling to say I'm a winning player, let alone that I'm a BIG winning player. You've made fewer than 110 bets. Don't assume you're a winner because of it. No. Stop doing this. (I realize I just informed everyone of what my bases record was in 2008 while offering zero substantiation, but I was just trying to prove a point.) Post your plays before they happen; post the juice; post the, uh, spread; post the amount risked. If you're serious about getting better, post your plays somewhere public every day, and define your record based only on what you can prove. It's easy to lie to others, and not that much harder to lie to yourself. God knows I've been guilty of it. The easiest way to keep yourself honest is to force yourself to be honest, but tying your hands and posting your plays before they go off.

good stuff good stuff... I am not here to prove anything, i am not posting to try and get people to follow. I never plan on selling my daily picks to anyone. i am here just for entertainment purposes. for myself and for everyone else....Ive talked to a pro capper on numerious occasions on the phone about BR managment. and 10% is not optimal, that is correct. What we are looking to do is to start big and grow fast, and once the BR has reached a high point, say $5,000 we can tone is down and start basing our unit % on how our win rate is. and you are so right, when it is bad it is REALLY bad, but when it is going good... it is going REALLY good.... and i am not lying about my posts... I just dont find myself with the time to play my plays then come on here and break down each game, ive got school, work, and I continue to try and persuade the virgin i am dating to **** me... (a BJ is good and everything, but COME'ON) I will be more then happy to copy and paste you my transaction history from my BetUs account. on there it has the ticket number that you can call the site and aske what the play was, it has the price date line, spread all that sexy shit!!!! other then that... ive been getting crushed this last week. (here is your honesty)monday -325Tuesday -145Wedendsday -157.27Thursday -70Friday -158SATURDAY +727.28 I went four for four for 20% on each.... probably the stupidest thing in the world (obviously) but the capper i follow felt so highly of the plays i was convinced that it was an atleast 3/4 day....Tactical, i am going to PM you something, see if you think i should put it on the board....

[rcooj_7 0]

Quick update....I hope to pass 2k tonight.... should be a fun watch... lots of college action......

[rcooj_7 0]

almost a month from my last post. Have been stag on bets. not much movement in BR since last showing up.526 wagers completed since December 18th 2009. $32,713.41 in completed wagers$1,179.18 in total wins$2,179.18 current BRI do NOT have my wager record as of yet. I will hopefully have my record done by tomorrow. I am going to work on my NFL, NCAAFB, NCAABB, NBA, NHL and TENNIS records. Hopefully then i will break down my spread record, total record, parlay record and teaser record. I am excited about getting all these numbers in front of me, and seeing where i am most +$$$ and can focus on that area. I want to look at my worst areas and either fade or fix my problems. That is all i have for now. If anyone cares... hahaALERT:Boston opens at -12.5, now at -11.5 with 67% action on them.Portland opens at -4.5, now at -4 with 100% of action on them

[wsox8 10]

almost a month from my last post. Have been stag on bets. not much movement in BR since last showing up.526 wagers completed since December 18th 2009. $32,713.41 in completed wagers$1,179.18 in total wins$2,179.18 current BRI do NOT have my wager record as of yet. I will hopefully have my record done by tomorrow. I am going to work on my NFL, NCAAFB, NCAABB, NBA, NHL and TENNIS records. Hopefully then i will break down my spread record, total record, parlay record and teaser record. I am excited about getting all these numbers in front of me, and seeing where i am most +$$$ and can focus on that area. I want to look at my worst areas and either fade or fix my problems. That is all i have for now. If anyone cares... hahaALERT:Boston opens at -12.5, now at -11.5 with 67% action on them.Portland opens at -4.5, now at -4 with 100% of action on them

It's still funny to me that you can make bets but not pay me back. You claim you are short of money but if you really needed it you would have cashed out of your book a while ago.

[rcooj_7 0]

ALERT:Boston opens at -12.5, now at -11.5 with 67% action on them.Portland opens at -4.5, now at -4 with 100% of action on them

well that turned out well, I never made it official, nor did i play it.... but good to know i am on the right side :/go Minnesotapatience wsox, i payed off the other member i had owed last week..... you will get it

[king_tanner 84]

You are posting your daily picks while you owe people money. Something isn't clicking. You must not care about your reputation around here.

[rcooj_7 0]

Minnesota is official.Indiana -3.5Warriors -4OK St +7...... ( game started already)Big winnerNew York Knicks +2.5..... going to add to the bet if the move back to +3