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Phil Ivey Giving Great Odds


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Re: Moon.Even the hands he won were played kinda poorly. Obviously most of the situations were pretty straightforward but he seemed to have no real sense of pot control or deception. He simply played his hands at face value.... the problem 99% of his opponents had were that they were under the impression he was very aggro when in reality he was simply getting dealt the deck thereby getting even greater value from his hands when opponents played back at him.

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5.5 is terrible odds, no doubt about it. Firstly, a random player in this spot would not be a 19 or 20-1 dog, it would be more. Most oddsmakers and players would agree that someone having, say 80% of chips, has a better than 80% chance of winning, regardless of blind sizes. High blinds would simply exacerbate it.The reason you can be certain it is a terrible bet is that oddsmakers know 80% of the action will be bets on Ivey. Why would they set even a decent line? Normally I don't buy that logic, but in this case the betting will be so heavy and so one-sided that you can be sure the line was set favourably. I'd guess as the date gets closer the odds do get worse, as the 'masses' get increasingly likely to place their bets.

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Sounds like good practice for the ft for Jeff Shulmanhttp://www.cardplayer.com/poker-blogs/6-ph...gas-vegas-vegasAfter playing the Pro-am Weds, I went straight to Jeff Shulman's house for five hours to give him lessons for the "November Nine." Of course, Jeff is already an accomplished player, but we all can benefit from having a coach that we respect. I have over 50 final tables in Hold'em, so I'm not a bad choice! Jeff is playing great, and he has a great chance to win if he is reading his opponents well on November seventh and ninth. The rest of the week I worked with Jeff, his father Barry Shulman (who just won the WSOPE main event! who is giving who lessons here!?!), Diego, Adam, and a few others. I learned something myself as we discussed hands, tactics, and the best possible strategies for winning. Diego knew every opponent, their tendencies, and we all talked extensively about what the other eight would be attempting to do. We played a simulated final seven, final six, final five, final four, and final three, with actual chip counts and we all "Played" parts as "November Nine" players. We even read a bunch of hand histories!

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5.5 is terrible odds, no doubt about it. Firstly, a random player in this spot would not be a 19 or 20-1 dog, it would be more. Most oddsmakers and players would agree that someone having, say 80% of chips, has a better than 80% chance of winning, regardless of blind sizes. .
i believe rarely ever should anyone be more than 9-1 at a ninehanded table. 9-1 should be the cap for the worst player almost. someone with 3bb or less, yes they should have better than 9-1 odds. throw in iveys superior play and managable starting stack, im effing stoked to be getting 5-1.tiger woods is routinely in his prime 1-1 to win a given major, with 4days to play and 60-100players against. so much can happen in between. i would contend that winning a major is tougher for tiger woods than what Ivey has to accomplish at this FT to win, only 8 opponents that ivey has to face and you can be sure that , by the style they play at the FT, one or more of Iveys opponents will play in a way virtualy making it impossible for them to take first. whether its mistakes/passivity/blowing up/terrible luck there are truely only 6 or 7 players who can walk away the champ. 80% of the chips in a heads up could result in an 80% or more chance to win.80% of the chips 9 handed, while dominate, has a lot of play left, and should recieve considerably less than 80%. if the leader has 80mill, there are 20mill out there to collect and if one player collects them and doubles jsut once off of the CL it would then be 60/40.
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i believe rarely ever should anyone be more than 9-1 at a ninehanded table. 9-1 should be the cap for the worst player almost. someone with 3bb or less, yes they should have better than 9-1 odds. throw in iveys superior play and managable starting stack, im effing stoked to be getting 5-1.tiger woods is routinely in his prime 1-1 to win a given major, with 4days to play and 60-100players against. so much can happen in between. i would contend that winning a major is tougher for tiger woods than what Ivey has to accomplish at this FT to win, only 8 opponents that ivey has to face and you can be sure that , by the style they play at the FT, one or more of Iveys opponents will play in a way virtualy making it impossible for them to take first. whether its mistakes/passivity/blowing up/terrible luck there are truely only 6 or 7 players who can walk away the champ. 80% of the chips in a heads up could result in an 80% or more chance to win.80% of the chips 9 handed, while dominate, has a lot of play left, and should recieve considerably less than 80%. if the leader has 80mill, there are 20mill out there to collect and if one player collects them and doubles jsut once off of the CL it would then be 60/40.
lol?how much variance does Tiger have to deal with? is his opponent just gonna come out of nowhere and deflect his shot into the trees midway like Ivey's top set may get outdrawn like a flush draw?gtfo
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lol?how much variance does Tiger have to deal with? is his opponent just gonna come out of nowhere and deflect his shot into the trees midway like Ivey's top set may get outdrawn like a flush draw?gtfo
golf has plenty of variance. ever seen a perfect fairway drive end up in a divot? or how the wind changes at the drop of a dime? while ball is midflight?everything in life has variance, poker is nothing special. for people who do gamble on wsop final tables , the opportunity to get 5-1 on the greatest player ever is something that may not present itself again in 50years.
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golf has plenty of variance. ever seen a perfect fairway drive end up in a divot? or how the wind changes at the drop of a dime? while ball is midflight?everything in life has variance, poker is nothing special. for people who do gamble on wsop final tables , the opportunity to get 5-1 on the greatest player ever is something that may not present itself again in 50years.
pretty sure stu was the greatest player everjust sayin
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for people who do gamble on wsop final tables , the opportunity to get 5-1 on the greatest player ever is something that may not present itself again in 50years.
That is likely true, though in no way does it confirm it is a good bet.
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i believe rarely ever should anyone be more than 9-1 at a ninehanded table. 9-1 should be the cap for the worst player almost...
?At a 10 handed table 9:1 would be the average otherwise you will get an arbitrage opportunity. Until factoring any sepcifics, each player should start @ 9:1 and then go up/down from there. For a 9 handed table start @ 8:1 which isn't that much off from 9:1. To say that no one should be above 9:1 at a 9 handed table is assuming a VERY tight range of chances to win.And has Tiger woods EVER been a 1:1 to win a given tournament before play began?
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?At a 10 handed table 9:1 would be the average otherwise you will get an arbitrage opportunity. Until factoring any sepcifics, each player should start @ 9:1 and then go up/down from there. For a 9 handed table start @ 8:1 which isn't that much off from 9:1. To say that no one should be above 9:1 at a 9 handed table is assuming a VERY tight range of chances to win.And has Tiger woods EVER been a 1:1 to winn a given tournament before play began?
Don't know if he has ever been 1:1, but I know he has been 3:2 and 2:1 several times.
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Found this article, Tiger apparently was even money to win the Masters in 2008, but it was definitely the first time that has ever happened in golf.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...HA&refer=us
...demonstrating that the betting line doesn't = actual chances of winning since it is influenced by other factors (ie: the amount of $ likely to be on each player). And also that it was (results oriented) a bad bet. And that he wasn't actually "routinely" 1:1
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?At a 10 handed table 9:1 would be the average otherwise you will get an arbitrage opportunity. Until factoring any sepcifics, each player should start @ 9:1 and then go up/down from there. For a 9 handed table start @ 8:1 which isn't that much off from 9:1. To say that no one should be above 9:1 at a 9 handed table is assuming a VERY tight range of chances to win.And has Tiger woods EVER been a 1:1 to win a given tournament before play began?
9-1 average? that may be common sense math, but this is gambling with a casino. Casinos are not trying to break even and let us gamble for fun
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I think Ivey is like 3.8 to 1 to win this thing and I'm not kidding in the least. The chip stacks would only be relevant if he was short on chips in relation to the blinds. He's not, he's got plenty to work with and he will. I have a HUGE bet on Ivey against Darvin Moon in a MUST WIN and I feel like I'm stealing. Darvin will get chewed up short handed, but if Ivey gets to 20 million, he will be able to close. Moon's lack of short handed experience makes him a huge underdog to win against so many competent players.

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My thoughts are that Moon is likely to bust in 3rd or 4th for that very reason. If he gets hu anything can happen especially if his opponent does not play small ball.

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I think Ivey is like 3.8 to 1 to win this thing and I'm not kidding in the least. The chip stacks would only be relevant if he was short on chips in relation to the blinds. He's not, he's got plenty to work with and he will. I have a HUGE bet on Ivey against Darvin Moon in a MUST WIN and I feel like I'm stealing. Darvin will get chewed up short handed, but if Ivey gets to 20 million, he will be able to close. Moon's lack of short handed experience makes him a huge underdog to win against so many competent players.
It seems to me that the statement that 3.8 is a steal and the huge bet on the must-win vs. Moon are unrelated. I would absolutely give a ton of action taking Ivey vs. Moon in a must-win. But that is because I don't see Moon as having much of a chance (the same as I didn't expect Phillips to win last year). That said, with his chip stack and with the other players at the table that are solid (and there appear to be several), I think that the odds on Ivey are not great (for those who want to be on him -- they are great for the casinos who know they will receive a ton of Ivey action).Doesn't the fact that dscoot thinks 5.5-1 is good value prove that it isn't?
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5.5 to 1 sounds insane. I would like to know what the best sit n go player in the world's odds are of winning a 9 handed sit n go. I really would be surprised if he was expected to win 1 in every 6.5.That being said for this instance I do believe Ivey at 5.5 to 1 seems about right to me. First of all, Ivey is the best. Secondly, Daniel is right, so long as there are plenty of chips to play with, the chip counts become less important. Plus, the people that are at the top of the chip counts are some of the players that arent the best of players. Moon who has the biggest chip amount to overcome, and not many people believe he will be able to win it all. Beglieter who I believe is near the top is an amatuer. I know Buchman has a lot of chips, and is suppose to be real good, but at least the players Ivey has to chase down arent all world beaters. Finally, if Ivey was fully motivated and playing these same guys with these same chip counts in a 20 dollar sit n go then I would have a hard time saying Ivey is very close to 5.5 to 1, just like I mentioned in the first paragraph. However, there is 7.5 million diff between 1st and 9th. There is probably a 4 million dollar diff between 1st and 2nd. None of these guys have ever made million dollar decisions. Ivey has won and lost a million plus in a day. Ivey has made 6 figure bluffs. We all know that people who play with scared money usually play worse, and I think a lot of the people at the final table will be playing scared. Even though they are going to win a lot of money, a mistake could cost them millions.

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I think Ivey is like 3.8 to 1 to win this thing and I'm not kidding in the least.
3.8 to 1 means that Ivey should have a 20.8% to win or better.The chip counts mean that Ivey has to double 4.3 times to win.This means that for these odds to be good, you're saying that Ivey has a 69.5% chance for each double. (.695^4.3=.208)Do you really that Ivey can outplay people and beat the odds (inlcuding bad luck) by this much? For example, when someone shoves without looking at his cards, a call with AK would already put him below those odds. So would a call with KK when he knows his opponent has AK.I really wish I had the bankroll to make this bet with you... :club:
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3.8 to 1 means that Ivey should have a 20.8% to win or better.The chip counts mean that Ivey has to double 4.3 times to win.This means that for these odds to be good, you're saying that Ivey has a 69.5% chance for each double. (.695^4.3=.208)Do you really that Ivey can outplay people and beat the odds (inlcuding bad luck) by this much? For example, when someone shoves without looking at his cards, a call with AK would already put him below those odds. So would a call with KK when he knows his opponent has AK.I really wish I had the bankroll to make this bet with you... :club:
who said he needed to double up at showdown? Last I heard... its possible to get chips by winning small to medium pots pre and post.
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who said he needed to double up at showdown? Last I heard... its possible to get chips by winning small to medium pots pre and post.
It is. I'm just saying that to achieve those odds, he needs to actively avoid showdown (or rather: getting it all in pre-river) even in very +EV situations, and I seriously doubt that is possible while still playing in a way that guarantees him those odds.
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