cemo76 0 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Looking to get your thoughts on Phil Ivey getting 5.5 to 1 odds to win the main event. I am hoping he wins obv but is his chip stack to low? I am laying 300 to win 1650 and it will make watching the FT that much more exciting. With his low chip stack yet obvious skill EDGE, what are your thoughts on me winning this bet????????? Link to post Share on other sites
HighwayStar 8 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 What %age of the chips does he have? Link to post Share on other sites
nutzzcase 0 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Does anyone know if there is gonna be a live stream of the FT? Link to post Share on other sites
Pot Odds RAC 23 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 What %age of the chips does he have?9,765,000 of 194,865,000 for 5%Chip leader Moon has 58,930,000 for 30%An average stack would be 21,650,000 Link to post Share on other sites
MaxStPolish 4 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Figure if it was all square he'd be 9:1. Factor the fact that he's got less than half of the average stack, that would extrapolate the odds against him typically....but he's phil f'ing ivey and the class of the poker world, so that extrapolates the odds for him.I'd never bet against him, but at 5.5:1, I would definitely be wagering a "fun" amount of money if anything. At 120k/240k 30k antes. He's got like 40BB's or an M of "I don't know what I'm talking about" (lol). So definitely a fair situation for the "pro's pro". Link to post Share on other sites
KingJames 11 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Figure if it was all square he'd be 9:1. Factor the fact that he's got less than half of the average stack, that would extrapolate the odds against him typically....but he's phil f'ing ivey and the class of the poker world, so that extrapolates the odds for him.I'd never bet against him, but at 5.5:1, I would definitely be wagering a "fun" amount of money if anything. At 120k/240k 30k antes. He's got like 40BB's or an M of 25. So definitely a fair situation for the "pro's pro".M= sb+bb+(ante*#players at table) It's the cost of going around the table once.So 9,765,000/(120,000+240,000+(30,000*9))9,765,000/630,000 = ~15.5 Link to post Share on other sites
DCJ001 0 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Looking to get your thoughts on Phil Ivey getting 5.5 to 1 odds to win the main event. I am hoping he wins obv but is his chip stack to low? I am laying 300 to win 1650 and it will make watching the FT that much more exciting. With his low chip stack yet obvious skill EDGE, what are your thoughts on me winning this bet?????????You want to put money on Ivey?Jennifer Tilly gives her opinion:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iG-uoz5knD4 Link to post Share on other sites
MaxStPolish 4 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 M= sb+bb+(ante*#players at table) It's the cost of going around the table once.So 9,765,000/(120,000+240,000+(30,000*9))9,765,000/630,000 = ~15.5MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMI stand corrected. Link to post Share on other sites
HighwayStar 8 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 With 5% of the chips, if he was an "average player" at the table he would be 19:1 to win. For 5.5:1 to win, this would be a break even bet if you think he was about "3 times as good" as the rest of the field....whatever that means.I'm not entirely sure how you'd figure out how much more skilled than the average player at that table is Phil Ivey is. I'd guess this bet can't be too good though, 3x seems a lot. Link to post Share on other sites
TheWynn 0 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Does anyone know if there is gonna be a live stream of the FT?Bluffmagazine.com Link to post Share on other sites
Mercury69 3 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Jessica Alba > Phil Ivey Link to post Share on other sites
cemo76 0 Posted October 28, 2009 Author Share Posted October 28, 2009 GUys think about it like a 9 man SNG and Ivey has half the average stack. 1 hand and he is above average. Factor in that all other 8 players are going to be trying to move up the money and IVEY can exploit them all. It is a great bet at 5.5 to 1. Better then even for sure with his skill level. ps. is that video REAL where he mucks the winning hand? CRazy if so.. Link to post Share on other sites
Pot Odds RAC 23 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 It is a 9 man SNG where he has half the average and the top three guys have 2/3 of all chips. For Ivey to catch the Chip Leader he needs to double up 3X. That is just to catch him. Even if (when) he out plays them he ALSO needs everyone above him to get remarkably unlucky AND play poorly against each other! Not saying it won't happen, but to characterize it as a "great bet" @ 5.5:1 is an overstatement. Link to post Share on other sites
cemo76 0 Posted October 28, 2009 Author Share Posted October 28, 2009 This would be a great Question For DANIEL??????DAniel if you are reading is this a good bet or not?Please advise as you would know better then us what the odds of Ivey winning are.Thanks Link to post Share on other sites
opie 0 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 What %age of the chips does he have?Seat 1: Darvin Moon – 58,930,000Seat 2: James Akenhead – 6,800,000Seat 3: Phil Ivey – 9,765,000Seat 4: Kevin Schaffel – 12,390,000Seat 5: Steven Begleiter – 29,885,000Seat 6: Eric Buchman – 34,800,000Seat 7: Joe Cada – 13,215,000Seat 8: Antoine Saout – 9,500,000Seat 9: Jeff Shulman – 19,580,000 Link to post Share on other sites
nutzzcase 0 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Bluffmagazine.comtks Link to post Share on other sites
coug2828 8 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 This would be a great Question For DANIEL??????DAniel if you are reading is this a good bet or not?Please advise as you would know better then us what the odds of Ivey winning are.Thanksdaniel's response(whatever it might be) would be pretty biased in favor ivey i think Link to post Share on other sites
Fluffdog87 2 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Bluffmagazine.comno live ft feed this year. Link to post Share on other sites
delved 0 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Considering how widely regarded he is by most players (and the fact that Norman Chad will suck up to him every chance he can get on TV) makes him an obvious favorite at the final table if he can play out and get cards. As much as I want to put money on Ivey, Moon's play and card catching have been irresistible. Link to post Share on other sites
dscoot 0 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 also remember that ivey gets a 10mil bonus for winning as a ftpro.so now he is playing for 18mill. the knack on ivey forever has been that when he is motivated, he gets it done. I'd say this is plenty of motivation.remember when the corporation was down around 20mil to andy beal? they brought in Ivey to play by himself and did not trade him out for other corp members. and ivey erased that debt in a day or two. the guy is clutch and i expect him to play his A+++ game. 5.5-1 to 1 is redic good odds for ivey. the books dont know enuff about poker or have enuff experience with nov9 odds to know that offering 5.5-1 on the greatest player ever is bad business. they'll know by next year. for example, in '08 we had hellmuth to make the final table at 100-1, he came close but finished 45th. only ivey was listed at lower odds at 75-1. matesow came close too and they realized it wasnt actually that impossible to final table this tourny cuz of the great structure. in '09 the books had adjustted the FT lines and hellmuth was only 30-1 and only the longest of longshots was 100-1next year they will likely adjust again, this time the actual nov9 lines when they get killed if ivey/shulman win this thing Link to post Share on other sites
wsox8 10 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 This would be a great Question For DANIEL??????DAniel if you are reading is this a good bet or not?Please advise as you would know better then us what the odds of Ivey winning are.ThanksBetting on Ivey at 5.5 to 1 is not a very good bet. I don't care how good he is. I'll be rooting for him but I wouldn't bet on him with those odds Link to post Share on other sites
stevielarson 0 Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Betting on Ivey at 5.5 to 1 is not a very good bet. I don't care how good he is. I'll be rooting for him but I wouldn't bet on him with those oddsagreed, oddmakers def knew everyone was going to pound ivey so this line is def skewed low. Link to post Share on other sites
XXEddie 0 Posted October 29, 2009 Share Posted October 29, 2009 Considering how widely regarded he is by most players (and the fact that Norman Chad will suck up to him every chance he can get on TV) makes him an obvious favorite at the final table if he can play out and get cards. As much as I want to put money on Ivey, Moon's play and card catching have been irresistible......?What play? He has been getting dealt the deck. I don't mean to dis him, he hasn't played bad either. Just saying I don't remember him playing a hand where he actually needed to 'play'. Link to post Share on other sites
Biff Goods 0 Posted October 29, 2009 Share Posted October 29, 2009 .....?What play? He has been getting dealt the deck. I don't mean to dis him, he hasn't played bad either. Just saying I don't remember him playing a hand where he actually needed to 'play'.+1He's "play" was that he didn't lose complete value with all the cards and situations he got himself dealt into... Link to post Share on other sites
DCJ001 0 Posted October 29, 2009 Share Posted October 29, 2009 .....?What play? He has been getting dealt the deck. I don't mean to dis him, he hasn't played bad either. Just saying I don't remember him playing a hand where he actually needed to 'play'.How many of the hands that he played in the 2009 WSOP have you seen on TV?He probably played a couple (hundred) of hands that you have not seen. Link to post Share on other sites
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