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Monster Draw Or Just A Gamble?


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I've been reading recently (on this forum actually) that you should play 'monster draws' as if they are a big hand, because you are usually the favourite to win by the river. I had one last night, and although I couldn't calculate the odds and outs in the heat of the moment, I'd like your opinion on it:0.05/0.10 5-handed cash game-----------------------------Hero: 10.90Villain: 9.50Hero is on the button with: Qh Jh- V raises to 0.40, Hero calls.FLOP: [Ah Ts 4h] (pot ~$1)- Villain checks. Hero bets 0.75. V calls. (Hero has inside straight and flush draw)TURN: [Ah Ts 4h] [9c] (pot ~$2.50)- Hero now has open-end-straight & flush draw. First question: What would you do here? Conitnuation and next question in white below:Continuation:- V checks. Hero bets 2. V goes all in. Hero...If I call this with my 'monster' draw, what are my chances of hitting? Is this a +EV call? Seems to me that I have 4 kings, 4 eights and 9 hearts (minus the 2 straight cards = 7 hearts) = 15 outs = roughly 30% to get there in one card. Is this right? Villain clearly has at least paired his Ace

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We already had the big Draw on the Flop. So perhaps a slightly bigger bet on the Flop. I'm going to go ahead and respond with the spoiler known. The Villain's shove really makes me think he has the A/9 which takes away one of our Heart outs. On the Turn we are better than a 2:1 dog and only getting something like 2:1 to make the Call (Check my math, I think we need to call an additional $6.35 to make $12.85.There's nothing left behind to get if we do make our hand on the River.Marginal Fold, but not a horrible call.If we put the Villain on something slightly weaker like Ax we are slightly less than a a 2:1 dog. This makes it more of a call.Bottom Line: I think we are on the fence of marginality. Call to show you came to play.

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where was the villain (was this heads up), how tight has the table been? How tight as he been? and what could he had been opening? In general monster draws are great because no matter what he has (set, draw, two pair) we still have a lot of live cards but we need to bet big enough to still get fold equity we don't have a hand yet. As played he may have a set or 2 pair trying to get you out with your draws but we get decent odds to call the shove and hope we hit our flush or double belly buster

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I wouldn't classify a gutter+FD as a monster draw since you're looking at 13 outs max, and in this spot several of those outs might be dead (villain might be holding one or two of the Kings and/or might be holding one or two of your hearts). The OESD+FD is the monster draw, but it's not nearly as powerful on the turn.

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Realise I hid the most important part of the hand, but figured you guys would check it anyway.

The OESD+FD is the monster draw, but it's not nearly as powerful on the turn.
@ jmbreslin - I think this is the main problem; when I pick it up on the turn it screws me slightly because I overplay it by betting. Should prbably just take the free river card.
where was the villain (was this heads up), how tight has the table been? How tight as he been? and what could he had been opening? In general monster draws are great because no matter what he has (set, draw, two pair)
@ rrumsey - No this wasn't a HU game, although we were heads up to the flop obviously. Regarding your other questions, I wasn't really giving his hand much thought at all, because I knew I would lose if i didn't hit anyway.
We already had the big Draw on the Flop. So perhaps a slightly bigger bet on the Flop. I'm going to go ahead and respond with the spoiler known. The Villain's shove really makes me think he has the A/9 which takes away one of our Heart outs. On the Turn we are better than a 2:1 dog and only getting something like 2:1 to make the Call (Check my math, I think we need to call an additional $6.35 to make $12.85....Bottom Line: I think we are on the fence of marginality. Call to show you came to play.
@ Pot Odds RAC - Agree, bigger bet on the flop is right, if only to give me the proper odds to call the shove. As played, I think I'm calling slightly -EV but still not suicidal. Also, bang on with the read - villain has A9. Love your last line :club: Sad end to the story is I did call, river was a lame deuce. Thanks guys.
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where was the villain (was this heads up), how tight has the table been? How tight as he been? and what could he had been opening?
none of this matterswe only beat 8 high bluffs or whateverwe're deciding whether or not we want to see if we can hit 12 outs or so on one pull.
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Occasionally, I bet draws against opponents who check/fold a lot or just to mix it up a bit. But usually, I'll take a free cards when I can get them. On the turn, I'm always taking the free card. As played, looks like a fold to me.
I agree this was poorly played. There certianly is a place to play big draws like made hands, but at this level (5-10 cent games) you are just looking for opportuntities to make the best hand and then get the suckers to call your shoves. This is a bad call because there is going to be a better spot next orbit to get it all in with the nuts. I make the most money at this level when I have been agressive, but folding to moves like his on the turn. I'll bet raised pots like this in position with air, until I start to get called and re-raised, then I wait for trips or when I hit the straight and call their moves until they are pot commited and shove them in. The problem here is your opponent is not a sucker. He doesn't bet out his top pair medium kicker, and waits for you overplay your hand before shoving and then you are -ev, but call anyway. If this is the guy playing after the flop most hands, you need to find a softer table, not because you couldn't beat him if you tried, just because there are SO many players that just call your turn bet, and then call the all in when you hit your straight on the river. "The most important skill in poker is Table Selection"
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Occasionally, I bet draws against opponents who check/fold a lot or just to mix it up a bit. But usually, I'll take a free cards when I can get them. On the turn, I'm always taking the free card.
Math makes this a fold, especially (as slim of a chance) that our heart draw isn't to the nuts...But since villain raised pre-flop and then check-called your flop bet, def. check the turn back.
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I agree this was poorly played. There certianly is a place to play big draws like made hands, but at this level (5-10 cent games) you are just looking for opportuntities to make the best hand and then get the suckers to call your shoves.
Betting draws is still very profitable at these stakes (I play 10NL too) because it really disguises your hand. Villains aren't advanced enough thinkers to suspect you of betting a draw - they see you bet and think, "I guess he's not drawing."I took a villain's stack in such a situation last night, thanks to his idiotic river move. I limp ATs on the button behind a few limpers and we go to the flop 5-handed. I pick up the NFD on the flop (plus the Ace overcard). Villain to my right minbets the flop, I make a smallish raise, folds around to villain who calls. Turn gives me the flush. He leads for about 1/3 of the pot, I hesitate and call (I figured if I threw in a raise there he would likely fold). River is a trash card, he open-shoves like $7 into a $2.50-ish pot. Thanks for the donation. He had TP with a mediocre kicker on the flop and turned 2P.Point is, by raising my draw on the flop he most likely figured I didn't have the draw so when he hit his 2P on the turn he thought he was good. By calling rather than raising when the flush hit I continue writing my story by making it look like I'm scared of the flush but don't want to throw away my hand. He probably shoved the river figuring I might be a donk who would call with a pair. If I just called the flop he might be more likely to suspect I'm drawing, in which case he shuts down on the turn.
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Betting draws is still very profitable at these stakes (I play 10NL too) because it really disguises your hand. Villains aren't advanced enough thinkers to suspect you of betting a draw - they see you bet and think, "I guess he's not drawing."I took a villain's stack in such a situation last night, thanks to his idiotic river move. I limp ATs on the button behind a few limpers and we go to the flop 5-handed. I pick up the NFD on the flop (plus the Ace overcard). Villain to my right minbets the flop, I make a smallish raise, folds around to villain who calls. Turn gives me the flush. He leads for about 1/3 of the pot, I hesitate and call (I figured if I threw in a raise there he would likely fold). River is a trash card, he open-shoves like $7 into a $2.50-ish pot. Thanks for the donation. He had TP with a mediocre kicker on the flop and turned 2P.Point is, by raising my draw on the flop he most likely figured I didn't have the draw so when he hit his 2P on the turn he thought he was good. By calling rather than raising when the flush hit I continue writing my story by making it look like I'm scared of the flush but don't want to throw away my hand. He probably shoved the river figuring I might be a donk who would call with a pair. If I just called the flop he might be more likely to suspect I'm drawing, in which case he shuts down on the turn.
There's a big difference between raising a draw on the flop vs. betting the turn instead of taking the free card when checked to. I apologize but I don't have the time to rehash it all out right at the moment, but suffice it to say that raising the flop on a semibluff (as you did) is a much more standard, better play. But that's not the same situation Hero is in here, as a turn semibluff will almost never work. Because of having little to no FE, it's best just to take the free draw.
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 396  games	 0.005 secs	79,200  games/secBoard: Ah Ts 4h 9cDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	31.818%	  31.82% 	00.00% 			   126 			0.00   { QhJh }Hand 1: 	68.182%	  68.18% 	00.00% 			   270 			0.00   { AKo }

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Haven't read any other responses but...Check behind.If this wasn't an ace high board you could fire another bullet (though I don't like firing on king high boards either). However, once people make a big pair and get past the flop they usually aren't folding to a turn bet. You'll see more folds as you move up in stakes but at $10NL and $25NL you can pretty much assume your folding equity is negligible, especially when the PFR check calls the flop. You gain much more by taking the free card and you will get paid off a ton more often when you hit, since your line will look like total bs on the river when you fire a PSB.If for some reason he donks the turn, which does happen even though it's a stupid line, you can call anything including a shove, but raising is rather pointless.Monster draws are played like the nuts on the flop, but once you reach a bricked turn their value declines tremendously.

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The pot's laying you 2:1, so it's nearly break-even to call against a pair. Probably best to fold at this point, but it doesn't matter much.

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I mean yea I probably take the free card against some micro unknown dude, but when villain c/cs the flop it looks like he's going for pot control. Why does he necessarily need to have an ace? He doesn't. He can just as easily have a hand like JJ/QQ or KT. If we fire the second shell that we can get him sometimes to fold his hand...really, it's not a big deal, as long as you know what you're doing when you bet.

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Math makes this a fold, especially (as slim of a chance) that our heart draw isn't to the nuts...But since villain raised pre-flop and then check-called your flop bet, def. check the turn back.
You know i didn't even think about that but yah the Kh could still def. be floating out there, possible nightmare would be AxKh wow. I still think that is a narrow part of his range thou it is .05-.10 but yah that hand does fit perfectly
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