$109 Nlhe Wcoop Bubble Question..

[kodkid 0]

Here is the situation... Blinds are 500/1000 and I am in the big blind.Folds around to the small blind, who goes all-in.He has me covered 3-1 in chips approx 25000 vs 75000. Villian is a horrible player, he either folds or goes all-in everyhand and has had several suckouts to achieve his stack size.I am 100% sure that I have the best hand ATos.Question is do you fold in this situation guaranteeing your self a cash or try to achieve the double up putting yourself in contention with the big stacks?FWIW... My read was correct, he risked 1/3 of his stack to try and steal my 1000 big blind with 8/5os he spiked an 8 putting me out in 2559 place while 2550 paid.I had the right read with the wrong outcome. I have been told that I should have folded no matter what. What say you, my fellow FCP'ers?

[jaxup1985 0]

Your read was correct... but Villains pick up hands too... could have been beat... even if though you weren't it's still a fold... Wait for 9 more players and then take a shot like that...

[MaxStPolish 4]

Here is the situation... Blinds are 500/1000 and I am in the big blind.Folds around to the small blind, who goes all-in.He has me covered 3-1 in chips approx 25000 vs 75000. Villian is a horrible player, he either folds or goes all-in everyhand and has had several suckouts to achieve his stack size.I am 100% sure that I have the best hand ATos.Question is do you fold in this situation guaranteeing your self a cash or try to achieve the double up putting yourself in contention with the big stacks?FWIW... My read was correct, he risked 1/3 of his stack to try and steal my 1000 big blind with 8/5os he spiked an 8 putting me out in 2559 place while 2550 paid.I had the right read with the wrong outcome. I have been told that I should have folded no matter what. What say you, my fellow FCP'ers?

While the standard notion is that you are playing to win, not to cash.....it's not like you are hold TT+/AQ+ here and his image only has him popping a certain range. As you indicate, he could be shoving with anything, even 85 off. That is actually more detrimental I feel for you in this spot, because as we know any two live cards vs. you is like 65/35. Not to mention he's just as likely to shove AA like this as he is 72, and it's your tourney life on the line.Maybe if you were a little shorter....I dunno. You made the right read and got the money in "good". I do think that I let this bubble burst though, being it's such a large tourney. This bubble isn't going to last long with 2,500 players left, ya know. I value tourney life over 15% edge in this situation i think. That could be wrong though for all i truly know.

[PMJackson21 0]

2005, snap fold.2009, somewhat reluctant call unless the player has been pretty nitty. Given your read of the villain and the other variables (blind vs blind, nearing bubble, etc) I don't think I could find a fold there. If he has AJ+, chalk it up to variance and move on.With 2500 people left, you shouldn't be concerned too much with the odds of you bubbling. Your main goal should be to pick up as many chips as possible to give yourself a chance to go deep; turning down situations where you are fairly certain you are either a slight-to-major favorite is not the best way to do so...unless you are Phil Hellmuth of course.

[Shark527 0]

You made the right read and got the money in "good".

Is min cashing important to your bankroll? If the answer is yes, then fold and you'll be in the money in the next ten hands. If not, and your trying to make a run, stick it in with your read as having the best hand.

[CoolHandPuke 0]

Several variables go into whether you want to cash or go for the win. Did you satty in to this tourney? If you bought straight in I would say definitely go for padding your stack if you think your hand is good. If your in on a cheap satty you may want/need the money so you may just pass and wait till the bubble bursts.

[dead money 1]

Here is the situation... Blinds are 500/1000 and I am in the big blind.Folds around to the small blind, who goes all-in.He has me covered 3-1 in chips approx 25000 vs 75000. Villian is a horrible player, he either folds or goes all-in everyhand and has had several suckouts to achieve his stack size.I am 100% sure that I have the best hand ATos.Question is do you fold in this situation guaranteeing your self a cash or try to achieve the double up putting yourself in contention with the big stacks?FWIW... My read was correct, he risked 1/3 of his stack to try and steal my 1000 big blind with 8/5os he spiked an 8 putting me out in 2559 place while 2550 paid.I had the right read with the wrong outcome. I have been told that I should have folded no matter what. What say you, my fellow FCP'ers?

Fold. Even if you know you are beating him, you arent gonna be much of a favorite unless he has A9 or worse or a worse 10. Im not calling off 25bb in this spot when you are most likely only a 2 to 1 fav. If I was down under 15bb then Im calling, but with that big a stack Im folding.

[PMJackson21 0]

On a side note, if you were wondering why he shoved rags in this spot, it is because how tight a majority of people's ranges are to call here. The tighter your range to call, the wider the range of hands he can shove with profitably over the long run. The open 'over shove' for 20-25 bbs (thank maven) has become somewhat common over the last year or so, especially in spots like the OP's, so you really have to expand your calling range against certain villains. I'm a nit at heart so I understand the reluctance to call off a decent stack with a marginal hand, but the game has changed a lot over the last few years.

[kreppsen 0]

Fold. Even if you know you are beating him, you arent gonna be much of a favorite unless he has A9 or worse or a worse 10. Im not calling off 25bb in this spot when you are most likely only a 2 to 1 fav. If I was down under 15bb then Im calling, but with that big a stack Im folding.

Agree with dead money unless your goal is to go deep. It's a bad beat for sure but I'm folding here regardless of the outcome. I'd rather wait until the 2550 paid players remain and then try to get all my chips in the pot. You'll make it past the next 9 players with such a stack and ou can almost climb another step on the "paid ladder" because pf all the short stacks trying to cash out.

[MaxStPolish 4]

Agree with dead money unless your goal is to go deep. It's a bad beat for sure but I'm folding here regardless of the outcome. I'd rather wait until the 2550 paid players remain and then try to get all my chips in the pot. You'll make it past the next 9 players with such a stack and ou can almost climb another step on the "paid ladder" because pf all the short stacks trying to cash out.

If that's not your goal, you prolly shouldn't be playing MTTs.That being said my answer of fold is skewed because a 110 buck buy in would at any time equal 10-100% of my bankroll probably. Thinking objectively, if someone is a regular at this level, I agree that you play your read and get it in good here. As if i was playing a 5 buck MTT, I'd probably do the same. So basically PMJ's answer reiterated, LOL.As for "climbing the pay ladder" it's a ridiculously flat ladder for a long while if 2,550 people are getting paid. Once you burst that bubble, I'm hard pressed to even think about climbing the pay ladder at that point, more than just trying to accumulate chips for a long run.

[kodkid 0]

good stuff guys. I knew I had two options... folding or calling. Hind site I think I should have folded because of my BR. I did win a sat. to get in, but I am an emotional player and had my whole BR in the tourney. Yeah, I know poor BR managment. I felt the risk was worth it at the time, guess I should have waited for a better opportunity to felt him.Great input guys, Thanks!

[rrumsey 0]

its funny because aj off and a10 off or suited is probably the only hands we even are fringe on this here, imo im calling off my stack w/99's+ AJs+ AQoff+ pretty instantly iff i had seen this villain spew chips but i fold a10 off and wait not because your range may be wrong or right, just knowing my lucky i would always be crushed! Its a fringe fold but probably still a fold let him go bust next hand or something witht that many players in the tourny 9 left is one or two hands from the bubble bursts

[Frez 0]

Is min cashing important to your bankroll? If the answer is yes, then fold and you'll be in the money in the next ten hands. If not, and your trying to make a run, stick it in with your read as having the best hand.

This is the best answer.If he's shoving 70% of his hands, your 60/40. It's easily correct to take that. If he's shoving ATC it's 63/37.And play within your bankroll. It's nowhere near an agonizing decision if the buyin is only 2% of your bankroll.

[rjf826 0]

I'm going to say that a fold is the play, even if he shows you 85 there. You are 65/35 in the hand. 65% of the time you will double up, but that does not guarantee you anything in terms of moving up in the money. We can't even say that it takes you off of the bubble, because with your stack, you probably are not in danger of being out in the next 9 spots anyway. However 35% of the time you will not get anything back, taking you out of the tourney. Assuming a min cash of $150 I'd be looking at it in terms of: Fold=$150 call = .65*$150+.35*0=$98.5.Additionally, assuming you make the money and the table doesn't break immediately, you still have this whackjob conveniently placed on your right. We all know that the money moves from right to left, so I would assume there is a good chance to get it in good against him as a 65/35 favorite or better post bubble.One final point is that when I am faced with these types of spots, I try to think of it in terms of giving myself the best chance to win the pot. In this case, my only chance to win the pot is to make the best hand. If I am the aggressor in a future pot, I give my opponent the chance to fold or I can make the best hand. I like that situation a whole lot better.

[RISEorFall 0]

I try to think of it in terms of giving myself the best chance to win the pot.

you need to think of your best chance to win the tournament, not this one hand. folding here is 100% wrong, unless you got in through a satellite or something and the payout means something to you. the biggest pay jump before for a while in these big tournies is going from $0 to cashing and making some money. so if thats important to you, fine, fold and probably cash.but consistently passing up 60-65% edges because youre scared to bust is a huge leak and will never make you a winning player.