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fullontilt78 is 23/21/1 over 50 handsHirshleifer is 23/6.5/4.5 over 250 handsFull Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.comSeat 1: HirshleiferUW ($63.55)Seat 2: break82 ($30)Seat 3: Pezzzz 08 ($50)Seat 4: Marley One ($20)Seat 5: On3oFaK1nD ($66.60)Seat 6: BJWalker ($21.25), is sitting outSeat 7: HERO ($104.10)Seat 8: fullontilt78 ($52)Seat 9: Ruprette ($13.50)Preflop: Hero is SB with Jdiamond.gif, Jclub.giffullontilt78 bets $2, 1 fold, HirshleiferUW calls $2, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.50Flop: ($6.50) 6club.gif, 10diamond.gif, 4spade.gif(3 players)Hero checks, fullontilt78 checks, HirshleiferUW bets $3, Hero calls $3, 1 foldTurn: ($12.50) 9diamond.gif(2 players)Hero checks, HirshleiferUW bets $12, Hero ?Something weirded up with the converter so I had to make some fixes sorry.What does I does here?

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I can't, I can only raise imoAlso, if I do check-raise the flop, I'm curious as to what hands you think he'll show up with that we beat when we get action
There are none - flatting is best both PF and on the flop, IMO. And thank god someone is correcting these people that don't know a raise from a re-raise...it tilts me to hell.As for the turn play, it's a tough spot. A higher overpair should and would be potting this turn for value. Do you have any stats/notes on his two/three barrel tendencies? The problem is is that even if we think we're ahead now and call, if villain three barrels a lot we're going to face another big river bet oop which is insanely difficult to call. I don't know what to answer.
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I'd probably fold. I doubt he has a bigger overpair ever, he flat preflop, he only bet half the pot on the flop. I think his hand is either a set/9T/78/AT/air. Without a read on what he's done with his bluffs I think it's hard to call down here. I really don't like calling turn and then folding to a big river bet either, so I think if you call turn you gotta call river unless it's an A.His aggression is a little alarming, I take that stat off on my hud and instead just have "bet flop, bet turn, bet river" as my stats. I'm like the only person I know that has that but it makes more sense to me than just an overall aggression number, it's a % instead.

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Why not check raise flop we see A10 show up a good amount imo and yah its a dry board so we are worried about sets but wer still snap off A10 and K10 and they are probably in his range. The thing that makes this hand hard is you are very deep and he is decently deep so i would fall in total love with this hand but it looks to me like a decent check raise flop 2 likely hand may call and we kill them (K10 A10). The problem is if we do this, and we get repopped we are in a world of hurt or we get flatted and either option A.) see bricks and he leads out hard B.) We see overcards and he leads out hard we hate the check raise in hindsight. Its tough but if we flat we are only going to be just as scared of a turn bet ( blanks we assume set, overs we assume two pair so no turn is really good except us hitting a set but we do have a pretty good hand currently) then we are of having our reraised rereraised so i would go for the play that may have some folding equity and try and pick this pot up right here but it is sketchy without readsAs played that big turn bet scares the crap out of me and our hand has odviously massively shrunk in value to a semi bluff catcher so void of reads it is a fringe fold but it worries me because we don't know what would do this legitly. A big pair QQ+ is not afraid of that turn and wants to keep us around so that strong of a bet is too much, he almost surely doesn't have 2 pair 109 ( a scary situation is is he is a good deep player he may have 78 suited in his range but idk if he would see he does have implied odds against you and the line of reasoning for leaving it out is the same as an overpair it is too strong and creates too much fold equity ) it seems like he is semi weak by taking this line, or he is greedy with a big hand but we just have no idea and no way of knowing and it makes me hate calling or folding but i guess i have to default to a fold when we have no way of knowing what he is doing with the bet sizes. If this was a smaller stake game or you guys were both shorter i would like to go to war with this hand but at .25 .50 its sketchy either way

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fullontilt78 is 23/21/1 over 50 handsHirshleifer is 23/6.5/4.5 over 250 handsFull Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.comSeat 1: HirshleiferUW ($63.55)Seat 2: break82 ($30)Seat 3: Pezzzz 08 ($50)Seat 4: Marley One ($20)Seat 5: On3oFaK1nD ($66.60)Seat 6: BJWalker ($21.25), is sitting outSeat 7: HERO ($104.10)Seat 8: fullontilt78 ($52)Seat 9: Ruprette ($13.50)Preflop: Hero is SB with Jdiamond.gif, Jclub.giffullontilt78 bets $2, 1 fold, HirshleiferUW calls $2, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.50Flop: ($6.50) 6club.gif, 10diamond.gif, 4spade.gif(3 players)Hero checks, fullontilt78 checks, HirshleiferUW bets $3, Hero calls $3, 1 foldTurn: ($12.50) 9diamond.gif(2 players)Hero checks, HirshleiferUW bets $12, Hero ?Something weirded up with the converter so I had to make some fixes sorry.What does I does here?
I think this is a pretty close 50-50. Calling for value isn't bad here. I think if we get all jiggy with it, we're going to value-own our own self.
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My thoughts....Without a specific read, folding overpairs to basic continuation bets must be bad poker.When we have Jacks, what type of flop are we hoping for?This one is about as good as we're going to get.So if we fold here without any further information, we probably shouldn't be playing the hand in the first place.And a couple of c-bets from the preflop raiser is not reliable information to tell us we are likely behind.Following this reasoning, if we're not going to fold our Jacks as is, I think we have to start off by asking ourselves one question:If we had additional information that we were behind, would we fold the overpair then?Maybe Villain is a known bluffer, so we wouldn't necessarily trust any information we got from him.Maybe we are already determined to take the hand to showdown, in which case we don't really need any more information.In these cases, simply calling down the whole way could be a reasonable and safe play.But if we are looking for a way to be able to get off this hand before showdown, then we need to gather more information before we can intelligently do that.And the only way to get information is to provoke Villain into giving us some.And we do that by putting him to the test with a raise.By raising the flop, we are stating that you have a solid hand (probably at least Top Pair).So if Villain then reraises over the top of us, he is stating that he probably has Top Pair+ beat.And in that case, letting our overpair go could be acceptable.Gathering this information and folding to the flop 3bet would be cheaper than calling down a big turn bet and an even bigger river bet.So the flop raise not only saves us money, but it also better ensures us that we aren't folding the best hand- which would be a disaster.Note: I feel that the concept of "raising for information" is often terribly misused. I believe raising the turn or river for info is a very bad idea and a waste of chips.Because by the turn, you're close enough to showdown already to make it cheaper just to call down and see his cards.But because the flop is so far away from showdown, gaining the information here can serve our purpose of saving money when we are behind.

Also, if I do check-raise the flop, I'm curious as to what hands you think he'll show up with that we beat when we get action
Gaining value isn't the only reason to raise.Protecting our vulnerable Jacks in this raised pot would be nice too.Any of 12 overcards falling on the turn will kill our confidence and make it more difficult to play this hand profitably.Conclusion:If we are behind, raising the flop will often cost us less.And if we are ahead, raising the flop either gains more value, or it wins the hand immediately and we scoop the pot.So in my opinion, the decision is clear.--CM
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And then when he just flats our flop raise, as he will with almost any decent holding? You're just going to c/f all non-J turns? When you analyze losing less by c/r flop and fold to 3bet, you are forgetting to add in the times when it allows villain to 3bet bluff us of the best hand. Hell, this villain might even decide AT is the nuts and shove, and then you can't call. c/c the flop and re-eval turn is easily the best line here.

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And a couple of c-bets from the preflop raiser is not reliable information to tell us we are likely behind.
CM, Although you're unlikely to read this again, the action postflop is NOT from the preflop raiser. The preflop raiser checked and folded. I think that makes a huuuuuuge difference.
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CM, Although you're unlikely to read this again, the action postflop is NOT from the preflop raiser. The preflop raiser checked and folded. I think that makes a huuuuuuge difference.
Ahhh, I see.I agree that this is an important difference.But I certainly don't feel that it means we are more likely behind.In fact, since Villain only cold called preflop, this decreases the chances that he has the overpair to our Jacks.And the odds of him having a Ten becomes significantly greater.Because we have all see numerous players calling a preflop raise in position with any suited broadway cards.Based on this information, the chances of gaining value against a villain with a lesser pair have improved.And the chances of being behind have decreased.This encourages me even more to raise the flop.For value and/or protection.At this point, we only fear the set, right?
When you analyze losing less by c/r flop and fold to 3bet, you are forgetting to add in the times when it allows villain to 3bet bluff us of the best hand. Hell, this villain might even decide AT is the nuts and shove, and then you can't call. c/c the flop and re-eval turn is easily the best line here.
As noted, if we can not trust the information that a flop raise gives us, then it is not the correct play:
Following this reasoning, if we're not going to fold our Jacks as is, I think we have to start off by asking ourselves one question:If we had additional information that we were behind, would we fold the overpair then?Maybe Villain is a known bluffer, so we wouldn't necessarily trust any information we got from him.Maybe we are already determined to take the hand to showdown, in which case we don't really need any more information.In these cases, simply calling down the whole way could be a reasonable and safe play.
--cm
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FWIW I folded here, mostly because, as tskillz said, if I call the turn I'm pretty much committed to calling a big river bet.
What range of hands do you put Villain on after his turn bet?A key point no one seems to be addressing is that your overpair is completely and totally disguised.This means that Villain is rightly going to assume you are weak.And he could easilly be- using his position and your passiveness to buy the pot- value betting his Top Pair assuming it must be bestIf you had shown aggression at any point, and he countered with more aggression, you can often lay down the overpair.But when you keep it a secret like this, folding blindly is almost always scared poker.Point: when you are going to "trick" your opponent into thinking you are weak, you are encouraging him to play aggressively at you.So when you get what you want, and he predictably tries to push you around, you can't change your mind and fold!That combination has no logic behind it. --cm
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I think his range is really set heavy here, and T9 is a huge possibility. And the jacks weren't played that way preflop to "disguise" them or be tricky. At $50NL most reasonable players (although he is LAG, but his stats aren't by any means spewy) play very straightfoward UTG. That's why I'm not 3betting JJ OOP. It's almost played like it's a set mine with the added benefit of being able to play a for one street of value on a decent % of boards.The board is drier than a mother beach, so his range is really really narrow. Although its nice to think that this is some donk overplaying top pair an overwhelming portion of the time, it really does have to be top pair at least 70-75% of the time due to the fact that we're crushed by anything else that's not top pair, and top pair can still improve to beat us. When you call this bet you can pretty much assume you're going to have to call a river shove.The other reality is, we're facing 2 large barrels from a preflop calling station. That should set off warning bells in any decent player's head.Also, look at the bet sizes. The first one is under half the pot, which is either a weak stab or an attempt to rope in. The second bullet is a PSB after he is shown he's getting some action. How often is that kind of bet sizing top pair?

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Also, look at the bet sizes. The first one is under half the pot, which is either a weak stab or an attempt to rope in. The second bullet is a PSB after he is shown he's getting some action. How often is that kind of bet sizing top pair?
Ding ding ding ding ding. Johnny, tell him what he's won!
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Although its nice to think that this is some donk overplaying top pair ....
I'm suggesting it could be even less.If Villain has any read on you whatsoever, and knows that you are the type to throw away overpairs in these situations, he should be firing at you non-stop.It's huge +ev for him to do so.When thinking about reads on our opponents, it's important not to forget about what their reads on us probably are.And we can't let them take advantage of those reads.--cm
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I hardly give a 23/6.5 any credit for seeing anything but his own 2 cards
And I claim that any player that is poor enough to only be playing his own two cards, is also poor enough to do stuff like bluffing here with overs or overprotecting his pocket 7's.--cm
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How would a villain ever possibly know that you fold overpairs in these spots?Coran, I understand your points but you're overthinking here a little bit. I'm sure we do win this a percentage of the time, but nowhere near enough to be calling down 3 barrels oop.

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