Good Read Or Not?

[redhollywood 0]

Hey guys I am new on here but I have a question about a hand that came up a few weeks ago. I host a .25/.50 no limit cash game at my house every so often with some friends and such. About a couple of hours into the session the following hand came up. A friend of mine that I have played poker with for a long time is in 2nd position and makes an opening raise to $3.50. This might not seem like a big deal but it set off alarms in my head. I had been paying attention to his betting pattern all night and he had only raised to $1.75 with AA, KK, JJ, and AK earlier. He was getting low on chips and it screamed low pocket pair to me. I figured he was just trying to pick up the blinds or steal on the flop if it was low. Everyone folded to me on the button and I looked down and saw A 5 off. Normally I wouldn't call with this hand but I figured my Ace would be good if it hit and if it was a high flop I might be able to steal. I called. The flop came 8 8 5. I paired my 5. My friend immediatley went all in for $17 more. I was sitting on a stack of around $83. I replayed the hand up until that point in my head. I told him that I thought I was fairly certain that he had 22, 33, or 44. I was pretty certain of it considering the way he played it. I trusted my read and made the call. I waited for him to turn his hand over but he refused. Not wanting to start an argument I played along and said that I wouldn't show mine either. Another 5 hit the turn filling me up. I decided my hand was probably the best now and went ahead and flipped it over. The turn was a K and he mucked. I asked to see his hand because I paid to see it but he mixed his cards in with the dead ones as quick as he could. He then proceeded to complain about how sick of a call it was to only call with a pair of 5s and he couldn't believe how unlucky he got. I asked him what he had but he wouldn't answer just saying that it was sick and that I was a donkey. He bought back in and kept playing. About 4 or 5 hands later he finally said he had QQ in that hand and that he was very unlucky. Everyone else believed him but as I have continually played this hand out in my head and what happend after the hand it didn't make any sense that he would have QQ in that spot. Why try to push everyone out of the pot with a huge hand like that when you are in early position. Then when I call and the flop comes low why push all in? I am an aggresive player and not afraid to bet flops that I think my opponent might have missed. He knows this. Why wouldn't he check to me let me bluff at it then push probably causing me to be pot committed? Do you guys think my read was correct and he didn't want to admit it? or do you think he probably had QQ?? I am interested to know.

[DonkSlayer 1]

My first impression was that he had a big hand and wanted to start a big pot since he was stuck..although i doubt he wouldn't show QQ on that flop after you got the money in.Your call oop was marginal at best.

[redhollywood 0]

ok i forgot to mention that 3 times earlier in the session that a couple of players had raised above $3 as a starting raise and everyone had folded. He is a good player and would have picked up on this. There is no way he thought he was building a pot with that raise.

[KingJames 11]

He fired $17 into ~$7.50 on the flop?

[SwolyswoND 1]

Your play was, quite frankly, terrible.If you were "convinced" that he had a low PP - and I don't think you can ever be that certain of anything at the poker table - then if you wanted to play back at him you should have reraised. With all due respect to DonkSlayer, calling this bet with A5o out of position and effective stacks nowhere near deep is nowhere close to marginal, it's downright awful.Think about it. You said that if an Ace hit your hand would be good. That might be true, but if he does really have a low PP like you think, is he going to pay you off if an Ace flops? You also mentioned that if it was a high flop you might be able to steal it away. For one, that is very hard to do out of position. For two, who's to say that he doesn't hold something like KJ/KQ instead? You can never be as sure as you claim to be of his exact holding. Were you planning to steal it away with a c/r, or by donking out? Either way, I fail to see a single good thing about how you played this hand.In the future, if you want to see his hole cards, after the hand is over wait for him to reveal first (since you called him). He has to show if you do this, but if you flip over a hand he is allowed to muck (usually). A dealer at a casino might force him to reveal anyway, but good luck doing this in a home game. Oh, and he didn't have QQ.

[redhollywood 0]

Your play was, quite frankly, terrible.If you were "convinced" that he had a low PP - and I don't think you can ever be that certain of anything at the poker table - then if you wanted to play back at him you should have reraised. With all due respect to DonkSlayer, calling this bet with A5o out of position and effective stacks nowhere near deep is nowhere close to marginal, it's downright awful.Think about it. You said that if an Ace hit your hand would be good. That might be true, but if he does really have a low PP like you think, is he going to pay you off if an Ace flops? You also mentioned that if it was a high flop you might be able to steal it away. For one, that is very hard to do out of position. For two, who's to say that he doesn't hold something like KJ/KQ instead? You can never be as sure as you claim to be of his exact holding. Were you planning to steal it away with a c/r, or by donking out? Either way, I fail to see a single good thing about how you played this hand.In the future, if you want to see his hole cards, after the hand is over wait for him to reveal first (since you called him). He has to show if you do this, but if you flip over a hand he is allowed to muck (usually). A dealer at a casino might force him to reveal anyway, but good luck doing this in a home game. Oh, and he didn't have QQ.

first off I wasn't out of position. I was on the button. I had position on him. Before the flop I wasn't sure he had low pp. He might have had Kj or KQ. I was fairly certain I had the best hand after the flop since he fired $17 into a $7.75 pot. Not to mention I have played with this guy for years. This wasn't the first time I have ever played with him. As far as seeing his hole cards yeah i should have waited and made him show first but I didn't want to cause anyone to get their pants in a twist.

[David_Nicoson 1]

With all due respect to DonkSlayer, calling this bet with A5o out of positionand effective stacks nowhere near deep is nowhere close to marginal, it's downright awful.

Hero is on the button.

[David_Nicoson 1]

As far as seeing his hole cards yeah i should have waited and made him show first but I didn't want to cause anyone to get their pants in a twist.

That's admirable. Keeping the game friendly has a lot of value, both personal and financial.

[David_Nicoson 1]

OP, do you think he would play 66-77 differently? If so, why?

[SwolyswoND 1]

Okay, I apologize for misreading the OP, but that still doesn't make the call any less awful, IMO. His PP is still not going to pay off on an Ace hi flop, and the stacks aren't deep enough to give you the implied odds necessary to play A5. Even A5s would be marginal, A5o is still terrible. If you really are that concrete in your read, just 3bet him.

[redhollywood 0]

OP, do you think he would play 66-77 differently? If so, why?

I did consider 66 and 77. The only thing that had me lean away from that is how he has played mid pp in the past. This guy has a very distinc betting pattern and I don't think he realizes it. Plus with my flat call I figure he probably put me on over cards before the flop. All of my reasoning is based also off of how I play and he has played with me enough to know I am aggressive. I was trying to figure out what he thought I might have. The only reason I could see him shoving is if he had pp below what was on the board. Like I said earlier I normally wouldn't call with A 5 off in this situation and he knows that. I had an idea of the range of hands he was raising with and by making a call with this hand that I normally wouldn't call with it would give me a slight edge with my read of the situation. If he puts me on overcards and he has mid pp with that flop he wouldn't push cause he knows if he checks there is a good chance I bet at it and then he pushes and gets the max value out of his hand but he pushes first then I would probably fold putting him on mid pp and he only picks up a small pot. The only reason I can see that he would push and overbet the pot that much would be if he didn't want me to call and wanted to pick up the pot right then and there meaning he would most likely have low pp that wasn't on the board.

[trystero 0]

A5o sucks yeaIf you were deeper then you could call this OTB. You do have the right idea to make loose calls in position, i.e. you said you'd try and steal the pot if the flop rolled off high cards. The problem w/villain only having like $20 to start the hand is that you have no maneuverability, and hence little opportunity to bluff. Before long villain's going to feel committed to the hand and he's just not going to fold 88 on a Q9s5s board. Some of your reasoning's inconsistent. You figure you can steal a pot because he's going to put you on overcards, but at the same time you feel that you can get paid off if an ace hits. Those two don't work together.I don't think he had QQ either, his play doesn't match up w/how you've described him and your history w/him. The problem is that he's still WA w/pocket pair greater than 5s, and he can obviously have them. I think you're overestimating your read on him, i.e. he must do x given y and z, blah blah.

[redhollywood 0]

A5o sucks yeaIf you were deeper then you could call this OTB. You do have the right process to make loose calls in position, i.e. you said you'd try and steal the pot if the flop rolled off high cards. The problem w/villain only having like $20 to start the hand is that you have no maneuverability, and hence little opportunity to bluff. Before long villain's going to feel committed to the hand and he's just not going to fold 88 on a Q9s5s board. Some of your reasoning's inconsistent. You figure you can steal a pot because he's going to put you on overcards, but at the same time you feel that you can get paid off if an ace hits. Those two don't work together.I don't think he had QQ either, his play doesn't match up w/how you've described him and your history w/him. The problem is that he's still WA w/pocket pair greater than 5s, and he can obviously have them. I think you're overestimating your read on him, i.e. he must do x given y and z, blah blah.

Thanks for the advice and I will keep that in mind in the future especially about stealing the pot and hitting the ace. I didn't think about that at the time so i will try and correct that in the future. I am always learning. That is why I posted this so I could learn from it. I will make mistakes but at least I can learn from them.

[David_Nicoson 1]

I thought it was interesting to see how much the counterfeiting hurts a pair under 55.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt  95,040  games	 0.005 secs	19,008,000  games/secBoard: 8s 5c 5dDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	75.025%	  74.72% 	00.30% 			 71016 		  288.00   { 66 }Hand 1: 	24.975%	  24.67% 	00.30% 			 23448 		  288.00   { AKs, AKo }---  95,040  games	 0.047 secs	 2,022,127  games/secBoard: 8s 5c 5dDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	61.035%	  60.58% 	00.45% 			 57576 		  432.00   { 33 }Hand 1: 	38.965%	  38.51% 	00.45% 			 36600 		  432.00   { AKs, AKo }---

[Temporary Nuts 1]

Why do people post essays on how awesomely spot on their read is and then ask us if they made the correct read?Do people understand how to post unbiasedly?OP, This isn't aimed just at you. I've seen a lot of posts doing similar things recently.

[redhollywood 0]

I am sorry if it came out that way. I really just wanted advice on this hand. I obviously made some mistakes and just wanted some advice on my thought process. I learned some things thanks to you guys.

[rrumsey 0]

My question is what would you do if you hit your ace? Unless he was going to overbet shove a total bluff A5 has almost no good equity against his range. Anything suited and connected has a much better chance of getting payed off than a naked ace if he is a good player he is almost never going to stack off to a naked ace. I think what you were planning to do was bet into weakness on the flop because you felt he was weak to begin with and never of a second thought you were beat when the line started to look bad for you first thought. Use reads but don't fly purely on them ( this just isn't the kind of hand to use our "read" in this spot)the only good thing about your hand is your position that is it.