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Is A Coin-flip A Coinflip To The River?


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I'm confused when people say that it's a coinflip the whole way with JJ vs AK.Let's say this happens:FLOP: 2 4 9 rainbowTURN: 10RIVER: ANow to me this isn't a coin flip on the river. To me this is about an 88% for JJ.This is if the money is all in.
Dear donk,you are right. The coin-flip is expressed when it's all-in preflop. The flop/turn, as independent events, clearly detract the percentages as cards come falling, one way or another. The coin-flip expression is a dependant statement in that with 5 cards to be laid down, it's a near 50/50 proposition. Hence, when you are watching such battles play out on "the deuce" (ESPN2) the % will materially change on both 3rd and 4th street as cards are laid down.
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it depends on when the money went in as has already been mentioned. Obviously if the percentages fluctuate if the money goes in on the flop turn or river in that situation this is not a "coinflip". However if the money goes in preflop it technically would be a "coinflip" the entire way because when the money went in the AK was a 45-50% to win the hand.

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it depends on when the money went in as has already been mentioned. Obviously if the percentages fluctuate if the money goes in on the flop turn or river in that situation this is not a "coinflip". However if the money goes in preflop it technically would be a "coinflip" the entire way because when the money went in the AK was a 45-50% to win the hand.
It almost doesn't matter when the money goes in, from some points of view...PF = 54-46, or whatever it is, so JJ is the fav at this point and it's basically a flip. The % change is "artificial" and is based on the availability of more cards to come.Once 3 cards have come down, the % will change, as is the case for the turn and river, but the original % (54-46) will still ALWAYS BE TRUE. The adjustment is based on the elimination of available outs and, in this respect, doesn't impact the $$$, only the foolishness of the cocksucking calling station who overvalued AK to begin with.PS: Most of this is fairly true.
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Just put it in pokerstove with the board box empty. You'll see the percentages are both close to 50.

The coin-flip is expressed when it's all-in preflop. The flop/turn, as independent events, clearly detract the percentages as cards come falling
+1
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Ask yourself this..Is it a worse beat when A3 goes all in preflop, KK calls and the board comes A9987 or 9987A?
Way worse when you're KK, way better when you're A3.
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If the money goes in preflop and you are playing 1 card hold'em, a game where in which all players only use 1 community card it is not a coin flip...Where as....If the money goes in on the river yet, you are playing ten card holdem, a game where players use ten community cards then it is a coin flip. Now before I end this....did anyone explain to OP that when someone goes all in with AK vs 10's the dealer doesn't actually pull out a coin, ask for a call and flip it in the air to determine the winner. disclaimer: I realize that in my version of Ten Card hold'em the existance of the 5 first cards being shown does sway the percentages a bit however, it wasn't nearly as funny of a joke.

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Dear donk,you are right. The coin-flip is expressed when it's all-in preflop. The flop/turn, as independent events, clearly detract the percentages as cards come falling, one way or another. The coin-flip expression is a dependant statement in that with 5 cards to be laid down, it's a near 50/50 proposition. Hence, when you are watching such battles play out on "the deuce" (ESPN2) the % will materially change on both 3rd and 4th street as cards are laid down.
Thanks for the input... please tell me something that I don't already know...I was just wondering what people thought.Some people think that the money went in preflop 50/50 so when the 6 outter A or K comes on the river it doesnt matter... it was a coinflip to begin with.Others think that when the A or K hasn't come on the flop or the turn that when the A or K hits on the river it was unlucky.
If the money goes in preflop and you are playing 1 card hold'em, a game where in which all players only use 1 community card it is not a coin flip...Where as....If the money goes in on the river yet, you are playing ten card holdem, a game where players use ten community cards then it is a coin flip. Now before I end this....did anyone explain to OP that when someone goes all in with AK vs 10's the dealer doesn't actually pull out a coin, ask for a call and flip it in the air to determine the winner. disclaimer: I realize that in my version of Ten Card hold'em the existance of the 5 first cards being shown does sway the percentages a bit however, it wasn't nearly as funny of a joke.
Wait a minute... Biff Goods... They don't pull out a coin? Then I've been playing at my home games ALL wrong! Can you please help me on my 51 card pick up strategy? (I say 51 cards because I lost a card the last time I played :ts , as you can see I'm not very good!) Gee thanks for the imput! :club:
not a coinflip the jacks have a significant edge.
@antistuff, I know that jacks have the edge. Off the top of my head, it's about 88%
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@antistuff, I know that jacks have the edge. Off the top of my head, it's about 88%
*Smacks myself in the face* You need a new top to your head.You're right, AK only has 6 outs, but AK has 5 community cards to catch those 6 outs. So it's number of outs over unseen cards left in the deck.(6/48)+(6/47)+(6/46)+(6/45)+(6/44)=65.1% chance of catching an A or K in Hold 'Em. But it has to do this without JJ catching a J to make a set on those 5 community cards. So here's the math for the probability of a J hitting:(2/48)+(2/47)+(2/46)+(2/45)+(2/44)=21.73% of catching a jack. Thusly, we subtract the probability of JJ catching a jack from AK catching an A or K=43.37%.Finally, AK is a drawing hand (as we all know) and has a better chance of making a straight than JJ. Furthermore, AKs has a better chance of making a flush than JJ. So you take the probability of AK making a straight/flush and add it to AK's equity. This math is more complicated and will take too long to type out.Therefore, JJ has an approximately 51% chance of beating AK. 51 is still close to 50 last time I checked, so commentators and poker players call it a coin flip because both sides have approximately a 50% chance of winning.Donk, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE get Pokerstove and plug these hands in for themselves.
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Thanks for the input... please tell me something that I don't already know...I was just wondering what people thought.Some people think that the money went in preflop 50/50 so when the 6 outter A or K comes on the river it doesnt matter... it was a coinflip to begin with.Others think that when the A or K hasn't come on the flop or the turn that when the A or K hits on the river it was unlucky.
these viewpoints are compatible.
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*Smacks myself in the face* You need a new top to your head.You're right, AK only has 6 outs, but AK has 5 community cards to catch those 6 outs. So it's number of outs over unseen cards left in the deck.(6/48)+(6/47)+(6/46)+(6/45)+(6/44)=65.1% chance of catching an A or K in Hold 'Em. But it has to do this without JJ catching a J to make a set on those 5 community cards. So here's the math for the probability of a J hitting:(2/48)+(2/47)+(2/46)+(2/45)+(2/44)=21.73% of catching a jack. Thusly, we subtract the probability of JJ catching a jack from AK catching an A or K=43.37%.Finally, AK is a drawing hand (as we all know) and has a better chance of making a straight than JJ. Furthermore, AKs has a better chance of making a flush than JJ. So you take the probability of AK making a straight/flush and add it to AK's equity. This math is more complicated and will take too long to type out.Therefore, JJ has an approximately 51% chance of beating AK. 51 is still close to 50 last time I checked, so commentators and poker players call it a coin flip because both sides have approximately a 50% chance of winning.Donk, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE get Pokerstove and plug these hands in for themselves.
twodimes says that AKo vs JJ the jacks are a 57% favorite.
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  • 2 weeks later...
*Smacks myself in the face* You need a new top to your head.You're right, AK only has 6 outs, but AK has 5 community cards to catch those 6 outs. So it's number of outs over unseen cards left in the deck.(6/48)+(6/47)+(6/46)+(6/45)+(6/44)=65.1% chance of catching an A or K in Hold 'Em. But it has to do this without JJ catching a J to make a set on those 5 community cards. So here's the math for the probability of a J hitting:(2/48)+(2/47)+(2/46)+(2/45)+(2/44)=21.73% of catching a jack. Thusly, we subtract the probability of JJ catching a jack from AK catching an A or K=43.37%.Finally, AK is a drawing hand (as we all know) and has a better chance of making a straight than JJ. Furthermore, AKs has a better chance of making a flush than JJ. So you take the probability of AK making a straight/flush and add it to AK's equity. This math is more complicated and will take too long to type out.Therefore, JJ has an approximately 51% chance of beating AK. 51 is still close to 50 last time I checked, so commentators and poker players call it a coin flip because both sides have approximately a 50% chance of winning.Donk, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE get Pokerstove and plug these hands in for themselves.
Do you seriously think that I thought JJ is 88% preflop? I was talking about JJ vs an unimproved AK that needs an ace or king ON THE RIVER.How could anyone think that jacks has a 88% vs AK preflop? C'mon that's an insult lmao
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*Bangs head against a brick wall*

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