gobears 0 Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 UTG+1 is 21/7/2.6 over 1600 hands, BB is 30/11/3 over 40 hands. Both the BB and I have over 200bbs. So do we call/fold/shove? BB still acts after our move as well.Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em $0.50/$1 - 9 playersMP2: $100.00 HJ: $200.00 CO: $214.40 (Hero)Button: $100.00 SB: $199.00 BB: $375.00 UTG: $209.85 UTG+1: $135.00 MP: $23.60 Preflop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with : : (9 players)UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $2, 2 folds, Hero calls $2, 2 folds, BB raises to $5, UTG+1 calls $3, Hero calls $3Flop: ($15.50) : : : (4 players)BB checks, UTG+1 bets $9, Hero raises to $27, BB calls $27, UTG+1 calls $18Turn: ($96.50) : (4 players)BB checks, UTG+1 bets $103, and is all in, Hero? Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 I call turn. It would be weird for either of them to show up with a 7 here. I'd expect UTG+1 to have TJ or JJ here a lot, and BB probably has an overpair. I think we can call and if BB calls, we usually have a pretty good idea of where we are at on the river. BB never has a flush draw here so we are really only dodging a board pair. I guess I don't hate a shove to isolate, but I really don't mind the BB coming along here with 10ish very transparant outs. Link to post Share on other sites
qnshustler 0 Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 Um I fold preflop....as played flop is OK but I run on turn...I have no idea what BB is overcalling flop with but I don't like it, and the other player calling after leading, getting raised, and flatted looks like a straight draw QJ being most likely culprit since he could open it prf too. He knows you really like your hand on flop and could hope you see his turn shove to be a bluff/semi-bluff and will call with exactly the kind of hand you have. Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 Um I fold preflop....as played flop is OK but I run on turn...I have no idea what BB is overcalling flop with but I don't like it, and the other player calling after leading, getting raised, and flatted looks like a straight draw QJ being most likely culprit since he could open it prf too. He knows you really like your hand on flop and could hope you see his turn shove to be a bluff/semi-bluff and will call with exactly the kind of hand you have.meh. Deep stacked, I don't mind taking flops with speculative hands in position.As for the turn, QJ is in his range, but I think his range includes a lot of other hands, including TJ JJ QT, and I think we fare well against his range as a whole. I think we're giving up too much equity/value if we fold. Link to post Share on other sites
qnshustler 0 Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 meh. Deep stacked, I don't mind taking flops with speculative hands in position.As for the turn, QJ is in his range, but I think his range includes a lot of other hands, including TJ JJ QT, and I think we fare well against his range as a whole. I think we're giving up too much equity/value if we fold.No I don't hate taking a flop here but utg+1's stats are pretty tight/solid and he's raising to 4BB's from utg+1, we're not guaranteed position, and 3 other players to act who could (and did) reraise...all those factors would lead me to just fold it but like I said I don't hate calling and if we were suited I'd hate it even less.Again, given his stats over a pretty large sample size I just don't think he's lead-shoving the turn with one of those hands we beat most of the time. I think we can see QJ or TT or maayybe 99 a lot more often than an overpair or semi-bluff given his line. Link to post Share on other sites
gobears 0 Posted July 24, 2009 Author Share Posted July 24, 2009 No I don't hate taking a flop here but utg+1's stats are pretty tight/solid and he's raising to 4BB's from utg+1, we're not guaranteed position, and 3 other players to act who could (and did) reraise...all those factors would lead me to just fold it but like I said I don't hate calling and if we were suited I'd hate it even less.Again, given his stats over a pretty large sample size I just don't think he's lead-shoving the turn with one of those hands we beat most of the time. I think we can see QJ or TT or maayybe 99 a lot more often than an overpair or semi-bluff given his line.It was a min-raise Link to post Share on other sites
qnshustler 0 Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 It was a min-raiseWow, lol, yeah I missed that..but seriously I think min-raising from EP makes it even more likely that something like 99-TT or QJ is in his range than JJ+ as most players will raise more with JJ+ and love the minraise with medium pp's and moderate hands like QJ. You do have a lot of history with this guy so have you noticed any such patterns with his opening raises? Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 Wow, lol, yeah I missed that..but seriously I think min-raising from EP makes it even more likely that something like 99-TT or QJ is in his range than JJ+ as most players will raise more with JJ+ and love the minraise with medium pp's and moderate hands like QJ. You do have a lot of history with this guy so have you noticed any such patterns with his opening raises?yeah, I didn't notice the minraise either. I agree this makes it much more likely he has some random 7x hand or QJ.I still think its close though. Link to post Share on other sites
Fade2241 0 Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 Preflop is fine, as played I think this is a pretty easy turn fold. He's turning over a 7 or QJ way more often than a random hand you beat. Bets like this into multiple opponents are most likely never bluffs. Link to post Share on other sites
tskillz187 0 Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 I'm with the super snap fold here. Overbets aren't often bluffs, even though in these situations it's often someone turned a heart draw with whatever they had before. But there are so many hands that have you crushed, sets, slowplayed 78, JQ, etc. I don't think it's that close. Link to post Share on other sites
gobears 0 Posted July 24, 2009 Author Share Posted July 24, 2009 Well I folded and BB tanked/timebanked before calling. UTG+1 had a pair of eights for the turned set and BB had a pair of tens for top set. Not quite what I expected to see Link to post Share on other sites
MaxStPolish 4 Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 Well I folded and BB tanked/timebanked before calling. UTG+1 had a pair of eights for the turned set and BB had a pair of tens for top set. Not quite what I expected to seeThat makes sense of the overbet at least. Wise fold.Good call by BB. But then again he's still drawn 10 live even if he's facing that straight.Luckily you didn't get 3 bet on the flop, coulda got nasty. Link to post Share on other sites
gobears 0 Posted July 24, 2009 Author Share Posted July 24, 2009 That makes sense of the overbet at least. Wise fold.Good call by BB. But then again he's still drawn 10 live even if he's facing that straight.Luckily you didn't get 3 bet on the flop, coulda got nasty. Yeah my thoughts exactly when I saw their hole cards. 200bbs deep facing a 3-bet on a drawy board with top two. TY for slow playing. Link to post Share on other sites
qnshustler 0 Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 Well I folded and BB tanked/timebanked before calling. UTG+1 had a pair of eights for the turned set and BB had a pair of tens for top set. Not quite what I expected to seeKind of makes sense to me...I said I hated BB's overcall on flop, and utg+1 over-shoving turn was definitely strength and hoping for you to call. It was def a bad move for him with the line BB had to that point. Link to post Share on other sites
rrumsey 0 Posted July 25, 2009 Share Posted July 25, 2009 rather made this move fro button CO can still play somewhat OOP but i think both probably show up with high pockets or a set call the all in and hope he BB doesn't come over top. the interesting thing is if you flat and he does that still means he has your beat, probably worse because he wants to give you another card to hang yourself with. death turn but it is unlikely a straight got made so go and hope for the best Link to post Share on other sites
rrumsey 0 Posted July 25, 2009 Share Posted July 25, 2009 kind of what i expected and i think fold may be a marginal move in long run hands show up that you can beat, its more read dependant to sway what i would expect from this hand Link to post Share on other sites
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