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Thank you to everyone who is actually posting insight and doing so in a reasonable manner. I may not agree with everyone but at least you're contributing to the forum. BigDMcGee, you're an ******* and you can STFU and GTFO this thread. Don't post in it if you don't want to talk about it, even IF your stance is correct it's certainly not anywhere near clear enough for you to have the attitude you do.BaseJester, I certainly agree that flipping getting 2.7:1 is profitable. I just don't think we're flipping like ever here. The only conceivable combo draw is KQhh, sometimes of which villains will fold to a PF reraise, and a lot of times live villains will not play that hand fast on this flop. Based on the previous hand where villain did not try to bet hero off a hand that easily could have been KK/QQ on a coordinated A hi board, the read was that villain would not play KQhh fast here. So some small percentage of the time villain has KQhh and we are flipping, AQ makes absolutely zero sense but its live so maybe again some small %, I'll allow for the normal 5% chance of a total bluff, and then probably the other 75% of the time we are up against a range of {AK, AJ, JJ}. Strictly from a combos standpoint there are 6 combos of AK and AJ each left, and 3 combos of JJ. So of that range lets say 30% of villains total range is AK, 30% is AJ and 15% is JJ. That leaves us with 50% equity on 10% of villain's range or so (combo draw), 85% equity on the 10% of villains range that is AQ, call it 95% equity on the 5% of villains range that is total air, and then we chop against 30% of villains range (AK), are drawing near dead to 15% (JJ) and are more than a 4:1 dog to the last 30%. (AJ). And TBH the % of range for the AJ and JJ might even be higher, because those are auto-shoves while AK/AQ/air/combo draws aren't always shoved by villains here. I honestly cannot see how mathwise this is a call looking at those numbers.
If instead of just looking at those numbers, you added them up and stuff, you would see that your assumptions above give us a profit of $68 for calling.I really recommend pokerstove to you. You're on the right track with your combos and equity, but I understand how it's tempting to get half way done and say, "**** it, I think I should probably do X." Less so when the calculations are done for you.

OP_assumptions_AK.xls

Edited by BaseJester
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Base, what are you thoughts on the range I gave? Would you adjust the % at all? I commented in that last post that perhaps the % for AJ/JJ should be higher given that villains will always shove those but might play other hands in the range slower.

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I think its a good fold, for some reason it just reaks of JJ to me? i dont know where you play your 1-2, 1-3 but $50 seems like the perfect raise in this spot if you say its standard, OOP yes, but you in a way dont wanna scare the villain away if he was just stabbing into a pot. I strongly agree with Tskills on his point of checking the flop. Jacks will always flat call a raise,(unless short stacked) and ive seen some pretty tight 1-2 games myself, ive seen guys lay down AJ/KQs/Q10s like 72's to a 3bet, in the long run its the right move, imo anyways

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Base, what are you thoughts on the range I gave? Would you adjust the % at all? I commented in that last post that perhaps the % for AJ/JJ should be higher given that villains will always shove those but might play other hands in the range slower.
I think it's valid to weight those hands a little higher. If we say 6% draw, 1% AQ, and 0% bluff; we're still at break-even. I think that's really conservative and we're not going to really see many opponents with this tight a range.

break_even_assumption_AK.xls

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There's no reason to bet for value, it a way ahead/way behind situation (and we're almost always way ahead here). You don't bet in those spots.By checking we give him the opportunity to bluff, if hes not a thinking player he will bet all his As anyways every time and he may bluff. By checking we make our range as weak as possible. Even non-thinking players can see check is weaker than bet.
I think we get a lot of calls from worse aces, straight draws, and flush draws against the average live $1/$3NL player.
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Good wordseriously
Lois, I find this meatloaf rather shallow and pedantic.... Perhaps. Perhaps.
You're not deep enough to make this fold imo. Reraise bigger pf. Live players are either calling the reraise or not. Tehy don't care about the sizing, even if this wasn't live though it's kind of a small reraise. Check flop imo, you should be checking this flop with a lot of your range. QQ, KK, AA, AK, AQ, JJ, basically there's no reason to bet this flop you're polarizing your range so much. What is the purpose of your flop bet? A high flops in 3bet pots are really good flops to be checking, especially with such shallow stacks. It doesn't take 3 streets worht of betting to get another A all in here, so you should have no worries about checking and it's really helpful so you can check your big pairs here and not have someone just blast away at you.
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I hate AK, lol but as played I think this is a C/R on the flop as well, looking to get it in. If we got coolered so be it. I think a chop is just as likely as AQ too. The point is I think you're looking at other hands more often than AJ, JJ 77 etc, call.

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Tskillz stop giving away the one advantage I have in these games.Live players are going to put you on AK/AA/KK when you reraise if it is a passive game, by betting you allow them to play perfectly. Better to check and let them make a mistake, because when they make a mistake we profit.

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Tskillz stop giving away the one advantage I have in these games.Live players are going to put you on AK/AA/KK when you reraise if it is a passive game, by betting you allow them to play perfectly. Better to check and let them make a mistake, because when they make a mistake we profit.
I <3 this thread
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But I thought BigDMcGee proclaimed this thread closed after two replies and said there could be no meaningful discussion?
BigD's definition of meaningful discussion is repeatedly berating a fishtap tap, tap tap tap
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FWIW Fade, I'm saying check to check/call flop not to check raise. Gotta let villain barrel twice here and if he doesn't then we bet the river.
Okay, that makes sense. Gotta get the value out of the hand. Ty for the clarification! :club:
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Thanks for replies everyone.For results, I've got a little twist to add. Hero actually held AQs here, not AK, making it a fairly easy fold, although I did hollywood it a little. After I mucked, villain showed AK. The reason I posted the hand this way is because I wanted to understand villain's play. At the time I thought it was quite a bad shove, seeing as how the value is so thin - basically only AQ might or might not call (depending how bad player is), but you definitely fold out KK/QQ. But then I started to think, what would I have done if I held AK there? Could villain fold out AK often enough to gain equity with this shove? Now that it seems most on the board feel AK should snap the shove, does that confirm my suspicion that villain's shove with AK is fairly awful?

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Thanks for replies everyone.For results, I've got a little twist to add. Hero actually held AQs here, not AK, making it a fairly easy fold, although I did hollywood it a little. After I mucked, villain showed AK. The reason I posted the hand this way is because I wanted to understand villain's play. At the time I thought it was quite a bad shove, seeing as how the value is so thin - basically only AQ might or might not call (depending how bad player is), but you definitely fold out KK/QQ. But then I started to think, what would I have done if I held AK there? Could villain fold out AK often enough to gain equity with this shove? Now that it seems most on the board feel AK should snap the shove, does that confirm my suspicion that villain's shove with AK is fairly awful?
Yeah, but do you really think KK/QQ are going to give you any further action if you're in villains shoes? I think his shove has some protequityYea, i make up words.
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