Footballguru 0 Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 Villian and I have alot of history this session. One hand I raised 20 utg with 10c7c and he and 1 other called. Flop 334 1 club, i bet 30 he called. turn 8c i bet 70 he called, river Kh i bet 120 he folded I mucked. Second hand we played I limped with 44 MP and so did many others. FLop was qj4 someone led out 20, call, i make it 100 he overcalls behind me and 1 other calls. Turn is 5 I bet 200 he pushes for 300 other folds, I call, he has QJ. Last hand we have together was I call 20$ raise in MP with 55 and position, but he overcalls on the button. Flop 468 Raiser bets 75, i call (really bad) , he calls. Turn is 8 raiser checks i check, villan bets 210. We both fold and he mucks, but i had feeling he was bluffing.So now this hand coems up. I open in LP to 20$ with 7c7h. Button calls and both blinds call. Villian is SB with ~700 and I cover. Flop is 256dd he leads out for 50. I smooth call and other 2 folds.Turn 8cHe bets 150 and I call againRiver AhHe bets 300What is his range of value betting here ? Is this an obvious bluff? did he have Ah8h? a6? Flop a set/straight? Or did he just miss a draw.when i was calling ont he turn, i said "flush draw?" ANd he replied, "no, a set" Link to post Share on other sites
mtdesmoines 3 Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 when i was calling ont he turn, i said "flush draw?" ANd he replied, "no, a set"I think he has a set. ......No SW Link to post Share on other sites
bigbluffzinc 0 Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 looking at the history it seems villain is comfortable three betting... with this alone i'm trying to figure out why you called the flop... you know at some point this villain is going to make pushes for your stack, and on that board there really isn't a single card in the deck you're happy to see... the board pairs and he could have trips because he led out and could have atc, Diamond peels off he could have had a flush draw... over cards... i dont see how you dont raise or muck on the flop...in light of everything... im probably folding/shoving the turn after the mistake of calling the flop but as soon as he says he has a set i'm folding.. in live games when players say they have a set i usually run into a something like three sixes... Link to post Share on other sites
Footballguru 0 Posted June 3, 2009 Author Share Posted June 3, 2009 looking at the history it seems villain is comfortable three betting... with this alone i'm trying to figure out why you called the flop... you know at some point this villain is going to make pushes for your stack, and on that board there really isn't a single card in the deck you're happy to see... the board pairs and he could have trips because he led out and could have atc, Diamond peels off he could have had a flush draw... over cards... i dont see how you dont raise or muck on the flop...in light of everything... im probably folding/shoving the turn after the mistake of calling the flop but as soon as he says he has a set i'm folding.. in live games when players say they have a set i usually run into a something like three sixes...If i raise the flop he pushes most of his range, laying down only hands that I have beat badly. his leading out range hypothetically includes sets, draws, 2 pair and occasional overpair. Even though I think that he slowplays a set/straight. Its a lose lose situation since I cant call a push. I never raise to "find out where I am" like so many people like to do. i think it is greatly -ev. i either raise for value or as a bluff. In this spot I am fine to just call down barring a diamond or something fishy, perhaps like him betting 300 on the river.... Link to post Share on other sites
KingJames 11 Posted June 3, 2009 Share Posted June 3, 2009 I don't see a light 3 barrel here, he probably caught on the turn or river... or had the setEasy fold me thinks Link to post Share on other sites
27lowball 0 Posted June 3, 2009 Share Posted June 3, 2009 Most of his range beats you with that turn (8 paires/hits almost any strdraw) and river card plus he could have set, overpair.He has left less than 200 behind, so its an easy fold imo. One question: Would he do that with 77 Link to post Share on other sites
SwolyswoND 1 Posted June 3, 2009 Share Posted June 3, 2009 His range of triple barreling can actually be pretty wide here. Of course any set (villains love to lead those) lawl 34, (dunno how loose villain is preflop, might come in with 34 sooooooted) 56, Ax of diamonds, or, yes, other diamonds that missed. But I have to think that the missed draw part (which doesnt include the Ad) is such a small part of his range that you can't call. Honestly on the turn I think I'm calling only for the draw at that point (but not at this price - 150 into 180). He really has to know that the Ace on the river is more likely to help you than him, but he bets anyway. Typically I don't give live players the credit that they can run a big triple barrel bluff - I'm folding here. Link to post Share on other sites
Footballguru 0 Posted June 3, 2009 Author Share Posted June 3, 2009 The 8 does not scare me, unless its Ad8d in his hand. What would be his reasoning for betting a naked 8 on the river? Even a naked ace if he has lets say Ad10d or something. The biggest mistake of live players is not betting for think value on the end. This is why I threw out all 1 pair hands from his range on the river. Its really either set, straight, A6, Ad8d, or bluff. I really do not evn think he bets 56 here. Link to post Share on other sites
SwolyswoND 1 Posted June 3, 2009 Share Posted June 3, 2009 Why wouldn't he bet 56 on the river? Your range has so many Ax (broadway diamonds) and high pockets in it. 56 only loses to a set on that board. Link to post Share on other sites
Biff Goods 0 Posted June 3, 2009 Share Posted June 3, 2009 To be honest, in his mind, he prolly see's you as pretty tight. I don't think he is really wanting to run a bluff on you at this point. Your history is, You win a non-showdown UTG hand, You destroyed him on a set vs 2 pair hand, then fold the third hand which you thought was a bluff but hey...he could have just had three eights. I gotta say he is not bluffing enough for this to be a profitable call. Link to post Share on other sites
Footballguru 0 Posted June 8, 2009 Author Share Posted June 8, 2009 i tanked for a good few minutes, and thanks to mike caro's book was able to make the call. villian had9d4d from flopped Fd+gutshot, turned double belly buster. Link to post Share on other sites
NoBBiR 0 Posted June 9, 2009 Share Posted June 9, 2009 i tanked for a good few minutes, and thanks to mike caro's book was able to make the call. villian had9d4d from flopped Fd+gutshot, turned double belly buster.It's not really profitable long run, but NC. Link to post Share on other sites
DonkSlayer 1 Posted June 9, 2009 Share Posted June 9, 2009 i tanked for a good few minutes, and thanks to mike caro's book was able to make the call. villian had9d4d from flopped Fd+gutshot, turned double belly buster.Haven't read the book cover to cover, what was the "tell"? Link to post Share on other sites
Footballguru 0 Posted June 9, 2009 Author Share Posted June 9, 2009 Haven't read the book cover to cover, what was the "tell"?while he wasnt completely still, he was except for continuous chip shuffling which he repeated in the exact same manner for 5 minutes and he ddint move anything else. Also, when I acted like i was throwing my hand away he did not do anything to try and change my mind. he looked right at me the entire time, seemingly trying to intimidate me. Lastly, his adam apple bounced and he was not breathing normally, but rather not rly breathing at all. A combination of these things and the way the hand played out, allowed to make this call. Link to post Share on other sites
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