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here's a hand in played yesterday. I had AQs at the cut off, nobody raised and i did it . The flop came with two 5 and i was 90% sure that my opponents had a set of 5's. I bet and he went all in but i still had the good odds to draw to the nuts flush. My question is :if you know for sure that someone has a set (or another strong hand) and that you have to bet all your chips to draw to the nuts flush, is it stupid to do it or is it the right move to do?I mean should i always pay if i have the good odds/pot odds to do it ?I hope my question makes sense :http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/407114

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Firstly, you cant be 90% sure he has a 5. Harrington on hold em tells us that there is always at least a 10% chance that the villain is bluffing. It wouldn't be the first time I'd see a villain turn up with a pair in this spot, usually 88-TT. He could even have a worse flush draw. You will be drawing to 15 outs a good percentage of the time and ahead occasionally. Definitely a call.

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I realize the guy did have a 5 (don't post results), but if your read is that strong, why are you betting? Take a free card. It's not like he's going to say "oh, I have a 5, but the other guy must have me beat, I fold". In any event, as played, it's a fold to the push. Why are we risking our tournament on at best 15 outs, and if we're right, only 9 (assuming he doesn't fill up)? Even after our continuation bet, we have an M of 24.5. There's no reason to risk our tournament life here.

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I realize the guy did have a 5 (don't post results), but if your read is that strong, why are you betting? Take a free card. It's not like he's going to say "oh, I have a 5, but the other guy must have me beat, I fold". In any event, as played, it's a fold to the push. Why are we risking our tournament on at best 15 outs, and if we're right, only 9 (assuming he doesn't fill up)? Even after our continuation bet, we have an M of 24.5. There's no reason to risk our tournament life here.
That's why i thought for a minute but i was chasing a nuts flush draw and he offers me the good odds to do it. Why would i fold when my odds are 4 to 1 and the pot odd are "bigger " than that ? I'd would not make sense to chase the flush (ace high) and then folfing when the maths tells you " you have to pay !".But in one way, you're right...it is also risking my tournament on one hand when i still have a lot of chips. So i'm still confused.
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That's why i thought for a minute but i was chasing a nuts flush draw and he offers me the good odds to do it. Why would i fold when my odds are 4 to 1 and the pot odd are "bigger " than that ? I'd would not make sense to chase the flush (ace high) and then folfing when the maths tells you " you have to pay !".But in one way, you're right...it is also risking my tournament on one hand when i still have a lot of chips. So i'm still confused.
How are you getting 4:1?There's 1710 in the pot, and you have to call 810. That's a bit better than 2:1. You're 3:1 to make your flush. Fold.
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How are you getting 4:1?There's 1710 in the pot, and you have to call 810. That's a bit better than 2:1. You're 3:1 to make your flush. Fold.
Sorry, i meant 1.8:1 (or let's say 2:1) with two cards to come. There's 1710 in the pot he bets 810. 2X810=1620. i can offord to call. i don't get why you say i'm 3:1.Flush draw :2 cards to come : 1.8:1 One card to come : 4.11:1So yes i can call. because the pot odds are "higher" or "bigger" (i don't know how to say it) than 2:1.
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How are you getting 4:1?There's 1710 in the pot, and you have to call 810. That's a bit better than 2:1. You're 3:1 to make your flush. Fold.
Sorry, i meant 1.8:1 (or let's say 2:1) with two cards to come. There's 1710 in the pot he bets 810. 2X810=1620. i can offord to call. i don't get why you say i'm 3:1.Flush draw :2 cards to come : 1.8:1 One card to come : 4.11:1So yes i can call. because the pot odds are "higher" or "bigger" (i don't know how to say it) than 2:1.
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Sorry, i meant 1.8:1 (or let's say 2:1) with two cards to come. There's 1710 in the pot he bets 810. 2X810=1620. i can offord to call. i don't get why you say i'm 3:1.Flush draw :2 cards to come : 1.8:1 One card to come : 4.11:1So yes i can call. because the pot odds are "higher" or "bigger" (i don't know how to say it) than 2:1.
Let's try this again. There's 1710 in the pot after his bet. It's 810 to call. This gives you pot odds of 2.11:1. You don't consider your 810 as part of the pot, because you're not winning that. If you put him on A5 (admittedly this discounts the other 5s, but the % is similar), you're basically 28% to win the pot (please see http://www.twodimes.net/poker/). That's a little better than 4:1.If you'd prefer to break it down as an EV, you can think of it this way:28% * 1710 + 72% * -810 = 479 - 583 = -104This makes it -EV for you to call.Now I will admit, if you think he's doing this with a 3 sometimes, it's different. Specifically, let's assume 50% of the time he has A3 and 50% of the time he has A5. Then your EV calculations are (note there's possibility of ties now)50% * (28% * 1710 + 72% * -810) + 50% (47% * 1710 + 48% * -810 + 5% * 0): = 50% * -104 + 50% * (804 -389) = -52 + 208 = +156
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Let's try this again. There's 1710 in the pot after his bet. It's 810 to call. This gives you pot odds of 2.11:1. You don't consider your 810 as part of the pot, because you're not winning that. If you put him on A5 (admittedly this discounts the other 5s, but the % is similar), you're basically 28% to win the pot (please see http://www.twodimes.net/poker/). That's a little better than 4:1.If you'd prefer to break it down as an EV, you can think of it this way:28% * 1710 + 72% * -810 = 479 - 583 = -104This makes it -EV for you to call.Now I will admit, if you think he's doing this with a 3 sometimes, it's different. Specifically, let's assume 50% of the time he has A3 and 50% of the time he has A5. Then your EV calculations are (note there's possibility of ties now)50% * (28% * 1710 + 72% * -810) + 50% (47% * 1710 + 48% * -810 + 5% * 0): = 50% * -104 + 50% * (804 -389) = -52 + 208 = +156
You make things way too complicted imo. Like you said pot odds are 2.11:1. My odds are 1.8:1. i can call ! Because i'll win 1 time out of 3. It means i will won 1710 one time and lost 810 two times (1620). So i will gain 1710-1620 = 90.If the pot odds were more than 1.8:1 I'd fold.
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You make things way too complicted imo. Like you said pot odds are 2.11:1. My odds are 1.8:1. i can call ! Because i'll win 1 time out of 3. It means i will won 1710 one time and lost 810 two times (1620). So i will gain 1710-1620 = 90.If the pot odds were more than 1.8:1 I'd fold.
I had a snarky reply here, but I edited it. I guess it comes down to, if you want to gamble your whole tournament w/o getting the right odds to do so, then yes you can call because you'll win 1 out of 3 times. But that's bad tournament strategy in the long run.
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You make things way too complicted imo. Like you said pot odds are 2.11:1. My odds are 1.8:1. i can call ! Because i'll win 1 time out of 3. It means i will won 1710 one time and lost 810 two times (1620). So i will gain 1710-1620 = 90.If the pot odds were more than 1.8:1 I'd fold.
I'm afraid your thinking here is flawed. You are about 2:1 to hit your flush, but that does not equate to having 2:1 to win the hand, ESPECIALLY if you are quite sure on your read that opponent has a 5. Your odds are worse because the villain has redraws even if you hit your flush. If you put villain on a 5, then him having A5 is actually the best case scenario for you, as villain would actually have more outs to fill up if he were holding something like T5. With him holding A5 (best case scenario) you are 28% to win, meaning your odds are approximately 2.5:1. The pot is not giving you the proper price for that.Add to that that this is not a cash game. The chips you lose are more valuable than the chips you win. That makes this a clear fold.
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I'm afraid your thinking here is flawed. You are about 2:1 to hit your flush, but that does not equate to having 2:1 to win the hand, ESPECIALLY if you are quite sure on your read that opponent has a 5.
I agree, but in my mind i was sure to win if i've hit the flush. But i agree about the fact that in a tournament it was a bad call.
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That's the kind of quick impulse thinking that makes one lose at poker, and scratch his head trying to figure out how.Why were you sure to win if you hit the flush? Couldn't villain be already rolled up? Even if he's not and you hit, can't he have a redraw?

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With one more diamond i'd have the flush Ace high. And it happened. Flop was 5d-5s-3d and he called my raise pre flop. I don't thing he would have done it with 55 or 33 or 53...but maybe i'm wrong..i was pretty sure he called with A5 or A3 when he went all in on the flop and that was the case. If i hit the nut fliush the only hand that could beat me would be a quads (out of question) or a full...and i was sure he didn't had a full.

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With one more diamond i'd have the flush Ace high. And it happened. Flop was 5d-5s-3d and he called my raise pre flop. I don't thing he would have done it with 55 or 33 or 53...but maybe i'm wrong..i was pretty sure he called with A5 or A3 when he went all in on the flop and that was the case. If i hit the nut fliush the only hand that could beat me would be a quads (out of question) or a full...and i was sure he didn't had a full.

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Yes, I know you had the nut flush draw. Why wouldn't villain flat a LP raise with 55 or 33? It's quite common for players to limp UTG with a small pair in tournaments hoping to hit a set. And again, even if he didn't already have the full house, he likely had a naked 5 and then still had a redraw to the full house IF you hit your flush."...and I was sure he didn't have a full."Take that thought process out of your mind now. In poker, you can never ever be SURE of anything unless you see the guy's cards. Playing poker correctly is assigning a range of possible hands to a villain and assessing the equity/plan against the range as a whole. No matter what read you have on this villain, a full house HAS to be included. We've already covered why the call was bad. It's a slightly -EV play even in a cash game, which means its way way way -EV in a tournament. You got really lucky this time, that's okay, luck is part of the game. But you need to be able to assess why it was a bad play so that you don't make it in the future. Because although you won this time, in the long run of similar situations this is a bad, losing play.

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I raise a little more preflop and cbet a little more.But with that flop I don't see how we aren't shipping it every time. We can't bet/fold with so much equity in the pot and such a low stack to pot ratio.

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How are you getting 4:1?There's 1710 in the pot, and you have to call 810. That's a bit better than 2:1. You're 3:1 to make your flush. Fold.
Our overs are never clean?We never have the best hand here?Sure, it's a fold if we know he has a 5 or boat. Without a read though, his range has to be much wider.
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Our overs are never clean?We never have the best hand here?Sure, it's a fold if we know he has a 5 or boat. Without a read though, his range has to be much wider.
Did you read the OP where he said he's 90% sure the guy had a 5? He asked the question in the context of that read.But what's villain possibly pushing with that would possibly make our overs good? Maybe a hand like TT or JJ, but how did he not lead that on this flop? In any event, calling off 34+ big blinds on a flush draw isn't good tournament play in my book. You'll have a better opportunity against this guy.In a cash game, it's different.
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I raise a little more preflop and cbet a little more.But with that flop I don't see how we aren't shipping it every time. We can't bet/fold with so much equity in the pot and such a low stack to pot ratio.
You're thinking in a cash game mindset. In a tournament, this doesn't work because the chips you lose are more valuable than the chips you win. I personally think the c-bet was a little too high. Almost exactly 1/2 pot is fine. You'll get c/c by PP, but you don't mind that. But that makes it easier to fold to a spazz shove like this that you shouldn't be calling to begin with.
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I know you wanted the evaluation done as if he had a sett, but why do you think that he would call a pf raise with AceRag and not 55 or 33?A weak ace is one of the hardest thing to play IMO, especially OOP.

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It's never a good idea to put your tournament on a draw, even if it is the nut draw (which in this case it isn't because your opp. might have flopped a boat or draw one). Your opponent is rightly pushing to make it incorrect for you to chase the flush. So...Fold.

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