On The Bubble Very Deep, I Play So Bad

[gooch 0]

Posted this up on the blog but you guys are the king of this analysisI’m really having trouble with this hand and I might be over thinking it so I’m putting it out to the experts to give their opinion.Setup: 2 seats from the bubble, 2700 people, top 18 get paid, I’m sitting 3rd last in chips, but can probably last out the other two if it comes to just getting blinded out, I was doing well, stealing the odd pot here on there and getting paid off with stronger hands till a very big stack gets move to the table to my left and sees most flops, he bets strong when he gets any part of the hand and I can’t steal anymore, he would call an all in from me with most cards so I really need to hit a flop if I’m going to be more that 50% to get though I think.Action at the table is pretty tight, AK doesn’t raise anymore and a lot of really good hands are getting checked down, often a lot of limper’s to the pot, then a big raise which gets called by AA or KK or everyone folds. There doesn’t seem to really be any betting on the river unless they are holding the nuts, K high flushes are getting checked though.Guess which player I am?Full Tilt Poker Game #11390281839: Table 42 - 800/1600 Ante 200 - No Limit Hold’em - 0:09:21 ET - 2009/03/29Seat 1: 24 (122,107)Seat 2: P (12,105)Seat 3: Ad (37,910) ButtonSeat 5: X (34,349) SBSeat 7: Ac(22,122) BBSeat 9: I play so bad (16,991) UTG24 antes 200P antes 200Ad antes 200X antes 200Ac antes 200I play so bad antes 200X posts the small blind of 800Ac posts the big blind of 1,600The button is in seat #3*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to I play so bad[Ad Qs] nice, but UTG I don’t want to ship this, maybe if it was suited, maybe…I play so bad calls 1,60024 foldsP foldsAd calls 1,600X calls 800Ac checks*** FLOP *** [Kh As Jd] This is a pretty good flop, I have top pair with second best kicker, only think is I am behind a few possible hands here, I really want to see a TX checksAc checksI play so bad checksAd checks*** TURN *** [Kh As Jd] [8s] This doesn’t really help usX checksAc checksI play so bad checksAd checks*** RIVER *** [Kh As Jd 8s] [Ac] That’s a pretty good card, we may win this suckerX bets 1,600 hmmm…steal attempt? Well I can certainly call that at the very leastAc has 15 seconds left to actAc raises to 9,600 Oh shit…now what?I play so bad folds*Ad foldsX foldsAc wins the pot (10,800)So you ask why I folded there?Here is my thinking, there was a small bet out there and a pretty big raise with 2 people still to act behind him, no including the original bettor.Holdings for the BB could really be anything as it was just called around to him and he didn’t raise, but that doesn’t mean too much because AK is not raising in that position there at this time in the tourney.What does he raise with there? With 2 people still to act behind him, then the bettor? Two people that entered the pot voluntarily?I’m beat by QT, AK, AJ, A8, KK, JJ, and 88 any one of which coule be holdings here, though KK is very unlikelyThe only hand that I am logically ahead of are AT or less and AQ is a tieNow at the time I thought this might have been a really good lay down, but this is the same player that took me out when he call my all in raise on a flop with middle pair, 3 kicker to runner runner a straight to bubble me out of the tournament so I’m rethinking it now.Should I have called?

[staggo 0]

Posted this up on the blog but you guys are the king of this analysisI’m really having trouble with this hand and I might be over thinking it so I’m putting it out to the experts to give their opinion.Setup: 2 seats from the bubble, 2700 people, top 18 get paid, I’m sitting 3rd last in chips, but can probably last out the other two if it comes to just getting blinded out, I was doing well, stealing the odd pot here on there and getting paid off with stronger hands till a very big stack gets move to the table to my left and sees most flops, he bets strong when he gets any part of the hand and I can’t steal anymore, he would call an all in from me with most cards so I really need to hit a flop if I’m going to be more that 50% to get though I think.Action at the table is pretty tight, AK doesn’t raise anymore and a lot of really good hands are getting checked down, often a lot of limper’s to the pot, then a big raise which gets called by AA or KK or everyone folds. There doesn’t seem to really be any betting on the river unless they are holding the nuts, K high flushes are getting checked though.Guess which player I am?Full Tilt Poker Game #11390281839: Table 42 - 800/1600 Ante 200 - No Limit Hold’em - 0:09:21 ET - 2009/03/29Seat 1: 24 (122,107)Seat 2: P (12,105)Seat 3: Ad (37,910) ButtonSeat 5: X (34,349) SBSeat 7: Ac(22,122) BBSeat 9: I play so bad (16,991) UTG24 antes 200P antes 200Ad antes 200X antes 200Ac antes 200I play so bad antes 200X posts the small blind of 800Ac posts the big blind of 1,600The button is in seat #3*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to I play so bad[Ad Qs] nice, but UTG I don’t want to ship this, maybe if it was suited, maybe…I play so bad calls 1,60024 foldsP foldsAd calls 1,600X calls 800Ac checks*** FLOP *** [Kh As Jd] This is a pretty good flop, I have top pair with second best kicker, only think is I am behind a few possible hands here, I really want to see a TX checksAc checksI play so bad checksAd checks*** TURN *** [Kh As Jd] [8s] This doesn’t really help usX checksAc checksI play so bad checksAd checks*** RIVER *** [Kh As Jd 8s] [Ac] That’s a pretty good card, we may win this suckerX bets 1,600 hmmm…steal attempt? Well I can certainly call that at the very leastAc has 15 seconds left to actAc raises to 9,600 Oh shit…now what?I play so bad folds*Ad foldsX foldsAc wins the pot (10,800)So you ask why I folded there?Here is my thinking, there was a small bet out there and a pretty big raise with 2 people still to act behind him, no including the original bettor.Holdings for the BB could really be anything as it was just called around to him and he didn’t raise, but that doesn’t mean too much because AK is not raising in that position there at this time in the tourney.What does he raise with there? With 2 people still to act behind him, then the bettor? Two people that entered the pot voluntarily?I’m beat by QT, AK, AJ, A8, KK, JJ, and 88 any one of which coule be holdings here, though KK is very unlikelyThe only hand that I am logically ahead of are AT or less and AQ is a tieNow at the time I thought this might have been a really good lay down, but this is the same player that took me out when he call my all in raise on a flop with middle pair, 3 kicker to runner runner a straight to bubble me out of the tournament so I’m rethinking it now.Should I have called?

Wow, I think I disagree with your play on every street. Also, he could be raising any ace on the end. I'd take Ak, KK and JJ out of his range. Also, I highly doubt q10, aj checks 3 times here and A8, 88 checks twice. With the way you played the hand there's no way you can fold. Just ship pre and call it a night.

[Jimberry 0]

The main problem is that you are scared to go out on the bubble so you are playing weak/tight. You can't be profitable in tournies if you intend to fold to the minimum cash. You have to go for the big scores. Shove this preflop 100%.

[SwolyswoND 1]

You are way overthinking this. Your M is less than 5, you're near the bubble, and you got dealt AQ, at a table where you said you are either likely to pick up the blinds uncontested or get called by the maniac big stack with ATC, which means you'd likely have him dominated.This i shove pre and its not really that close.As played, it's a ship on the flop. You can certainly get called by worse, and if you take it down right there, thats more than fine as well.When were you going to try to get value for your good hand? I think only QT tries for the massive screwplay by checking on the flop and again on the turn. Every other holding that beats you was going to bet and some point before the river, which should be kind of a scare card.To the river as played, you have to call, I think. Most of the hands that beat you would've bet on earlier streets, and any A can raise the river like that. You simply can't play this scared on the bubble when you're shortstacked. Ship it pre and don't overthink it.

[MovingIn 0]

If you can't ship this preflop, then sit out and hope you fold your way into the money.

[Yahkin 0]

All-in PF. Triple up.

[jmbreslin 0]

Limping PF is terrible. This is an easy push, especially since the table is playing ultra tight at the bubble.Also, you overuse commas. Try a few more periods or semi-colons.

[Mercury69 3]

Not to be too nasty but...SHOVE PREFLOP YOU ****ING NIMROD!

[gooch 0]

gentleman thank you for your candid responses, that is why i come herebubbled in two more tournaments after this, HORSE and a FTOPS, HORSE I most likely would have cashed in as I had to leave in 26th of 52 and give it to a friend to finish, he only plays holdem so i didn't expect too much but my play was stronger through late middle stages and i believe i would have cashed that one if i was playingthe FTOPS one I was just outisde which sucks cause it would have doubled my meager bankroll, and I did get sucked out on which makes my play okay, but lack of chips kills me when i lose these racesBUTthat being said I have noticed a problem and that is accumulating enough chips to finish off the game, my late play seems to be the reason and I think i am getting too nitty about hand selection there, folding AJ and such to pressure, twice i've had the chip leader moved to my table on my left and that has slowed my roll considerably through the late stages of the gamei'm going to re-read harrington on holdem, if there are some quick words anyone wants to add about the middle play of tournaments I would love to read itthanks

[gooch 0]

alright much better play this time, not results thoughaggressive play makes me chip leader at the table9th in chips with 500 people leftonly on person close to me in chips and he is really agressive, i play back with good hands and i know i can trap him and he plays into mesmall and i call on button with J8s, everyone else folds, he raises every flop he playsJT8 he bets pot, i 3 bet him, he callsturn is another 8, he bets pot, i reraise him all inhe calls with QT, SPRUNG!river is a Ten, friken 5% hands, i hate this place sometimesfew hands later i go out with top two all in against his flush draw, but if not for that i would have serious mopped it up i loosened up my play more and was really stacking up the chipsno more weak play though the middle for me

[cdipierr 0]

Please stop limping J8s against another big stack from the button. If you're going to abuse your opponents with your stack, raise please.

[Jimberry 0]

small and i call on button with J8s, everyone else folds, he raises every flop he plays

Why are you doing that?

[Jam-Fly 8]

No offence, but is this a piss-take?push pre-flop, bet flop, bet turn, push riverpre-flop - easy push. UTG at a SIX handed table, push every timeflop - you bet flop, and you are willing to get it all in. QT is all that beats you as AA, KK, JJ, AK or AJ all probably raise pf. you want to bet flop to protect against random Tx hands and extract value from the QJ, KT, A-rag hands.turn - same again, you want to bet.river - obviously a call. only hand you're really worries about is QT. also"Action at the table is pretty tight, AK doesn’t raise anymore and a lot of really good hands are getting checked down, often a lot of limper’s to the pot, then a big raise which gets called by AA or KK or everyone folds. There doesn’t seem to really be any betting on the river unless they are holding the nuts, K high flushes are getting checked though."yeah, that's not true. don't care what table you're at, that's not the way the table is playing

[gooch 0]

No offence, but is this a piss-take?push pre-flop, bet flop, bet turn, push riverpre-flop - easy push. UTG at a SIX handed table, push every timeflop - you bet flop, and you are willing to get it all in. QT is all that beats you as AA, KK, JJ, AK or AJ all probably raise pf. you want to bet flop to protect against random Tx hands and extract value from the QJ, KT, A-rag hands.turn - same again, you want to bet.river - obviously a call. only hand you're really worries about is QT.

okay okay, i played it wrong lets move past this

"Action at the table is pretty tight, AK doesn’t raise anymore and a lot of really good hands are getting checked down, often a lot of limper’s to the pot, then a big raise which gets called by AA or KK or everyone folds. There doesn’t seem to really be any betting on the river unless they are holding the nuts, K high flushes are getting checked though."yeah, that's not true. don't care what table you're at, that's not the way the table is playing

i know that would seem to be very logical, but if i go through the hand history you would see that it was being played the way i said it, had the bet not come from the BB which was unraised and could be holding QT very easily I would be 50/50 for the call

[gooch 0]

Please stop limping J8s against another big stack from the button. If you're going to abuse your opponents with your stack, raise please.

i didn't limp, he raised and i calledi guess a bit more info is neededme button 25,000him UTG +1 about 18,000no one else at the table has more than 3,000blinds are 50/100he raises to 350 and i callwhy call? well i don't want to three bet him there with J8 because i don't want to call his push, and if he raises he will call a three bet and ship any flop so I have to hitthat has been his MO so far, out of position if he is 3 bet push the flop on nay hand that doesn't seem logical holdings, sometimes he has it, sometimes noti know he will c-bet any flop he raises though, and he is aggressive so with position i can trap himpot was about 900 on the flophe bet 900 and i 3 bet him, he calledpot about 7,000turn he bets pot and i reraise him all in, he callsother than him hitting the T on the river, i thought i played it perfect, he put all his money in the pot with 2 outs against any other stack at the table i would have put them in preflop if that helps any

[Yahkin 0]

against any other stack at the table i would have put them in preflop if that helps any

You had J8. I don't mind speculation...but why are you so in love with J8? You are a dog to the top 75% of hands and you can't wait to shove it in PF? Just a steal attempt?I don't mind how it was played after you called PF...BBFIDTS. I just question why we are so willing to spew chips PF with a below average hand.

[gooch 0]

You had J8. I don't mind speculation...but why are you so in love with J8? You are a dog to the top 75% of hands and you can't wait to shove it in PF? Just a steal attempt?I don't mind how it was played after you called PF...BBFIDTS. I just question why we are so willing to spew chips PF with a below average hand.

i don't see the problem here, 350 to call from a 25,000 stack with the chance to bust my only competition at the table, i can't have him taking all of the blinds, i need to be doing thatwould i call 4,000? no of course not, but 350? you betthis guy wasn't exactly a rock with his staring hands, i looked to flop big and take him down, and if not for a -5% suck out i would have

[cdipierr 0]

Ok, so you didn't limp, you called a raise. That's worse.Aside from something like JJ8, there's no flop that you're going to like with J8. Most of the time you're going to miss completely. In this case, the flop was JT8, and you still have no idea if you're ahead or not. Position is fine and all, but basically, your thinking went something like "I hope I hit this flop. Ooh, I hit the flop. No way he can possibly be ahead..." when in actuality, you're behind AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 88, Q9, JT, 79, none of which you can eliminate from his range.If you really want to speculate with J8s from the button with an M of 166, there's no reason you shouldn't be raising. If he re-pops, you can probably credit him with a decent holding. If he just calls, then your J8 on that board is probably good. As it turns out, he's a terrible player and you were ahead anyway until he got lucky, but that doesn't justify this awful preflop play.

[trystero 0]

Awful pf play? Come on here. J8s isn't a great hand, not by any means, but it can make some decent pairs / good draws. We're in position and extremely deep against the TOURNAMENT donk. We're effectively risking 350 to win like 18k. And yes there are plenty of flops I'll like w/j8s - two pair, trips, top pair of jacks (pot controlling if possible), flopped flushes and straights, and big draws (hell even just an OESD like T9X). If our read is that villain calls any 3-bet then this is not the hand to be 3-betting. We know about relative hand strength, pot size, flop texture, and position. He doesn't. This adds up to a very profitable spot for us.but gooch, putting anyone else in w/j8s pf is just bad. THAT's spew

[Yahkin 0]

i don't see the problem here, 350 to call from a 25,000 stack with the chance to bust my only competition at the table, i can't have him taking all of the blinds, i need to be doing thatwould i call 4,000? no of course not, but 350? you betthis guy wasn't exactly a rock with his staring hands, i looked to flop big and take him down, and if not for a -5% suck out i would have

From my quoted text you will see I'm more interested in your comment about shoving against any other raiser at the table with J8. Like I said, I don't mind speculation...but shoving into a small stack raiser with a crappy hand isn't speculation. Seems like you are looking for spots to give your shiny new chips away.As for against the other big stack: You weren't in the blinds, so you had nothing invested. He wasn't stealing your blind...but you certainly gave him something to steal. 90% of the flops that you are about to see aren't going to do you a bit of good...and in several instances may actually get you in a lot of trouble. The 8% of the time you "flop big" with J8 may or may not payoff. Is he really gonna pay you off with a pair or flush on the board? Like I said, I dont mind speculation. You hit your 5%'er. Don't be mad when he hits his.

[gooch 0]

Ok, so you didn't limp, you called a raise. That's worse.Aside from something like JJ8, there's no flop that you're going to like with J8. Most of the time you're going to miss completely. In this case, the flop was JT8, and you still have no idea if you're ahead or not. Position is fine and all, but basically, your thinking went something like "I hope I hit this flop. Ooh, I hit the flop. No way he can possibly be ahead..." when in actuality, you're behind AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 88, Q9, JT, 79, none of which you can eliminate from his range.If you really want to speculate with J8s from the button with an M of 166, there's no reason you shouldn't be raising. If he re-pops, you can probably credit him with a decent holding. If he just calls, then your J8 on that board is probably good. As it turns out, he's a terrible player and you were ahead anyway until he got lucky, but that doesn't justify this awful preflop play.

i think you are giving this guy way too much credit, if he was anywhere near an average player there is no way i would have made this playI asked him what he thought I had when he called my 3 bet raise with bottom pair and a draw on the flop, or set him in on a paired boardhe said "not J8"so how about AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 88, KJ, KT, AT, AJ or any variation of those where he wasn't ahead, he didn't think of any of them because he didn't think, he thought he could push me off and that was thatlike i said, against an even average player i would give him more credit but this is a guy that called an all in with K5, so I KNEW i was ahead 100%, flop and turn

[Danege 1]

he bet 900 and i 3 bet him, he called

That's not a 3 bet.

[gooch 0]

That's not a 3 bet.

4 bet?

[SwolyswoND 1]

4 bet?

No, you just raised. Its not a 3bet or 4bet.

[Yahkin 0]

i think you are giving this guy way too much credit, if he was anywhere near an average player there is no way i would have made this playI asked him what he thought I had when he called my 3 bet raise with bottom pair and a draw on the flop, or set him in on a paired boardhe said "not J8"so how about AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 88, KJ, KT, AT, AJ or any variation of those where he wasn't ahead, he didn't think of any of them because he didn't think, he thought he could push me off and that was thatlike i said, against an even average player i would give him more credit but this is a guy that called an all in with K5, so I KNEW i was ahead 100%, flop and turn

So you're at the 50/100 and you have 25k. Assuming stacks started at 3k which it appears, you have double 3-4 times in under 45 minutes. You are either being dealt a lot of great starting hands, or you have been playing ATC, being hyper aggressive, and running good. You don't give him much credit...but I'm guessing he doesn't give you much credit either. As for him thinking he could push you off...that's silly. He never reraised, so he assumes that he has the best hand and that you are trying to push him off his hand with a str8 draw or something like that. His turn call looks terrible from our vantage point because we can see your cards and know that you have close to the nuts...but look at it from his view: You've been aggressive throughout the hand and the board has just paired...you immediately shove. He's thinking, ok, if he just hit trips, boat, top and bottom, or an overpair, why would he shove...wouldn't he bet for value? He must be on a draw and is trying to steal this from me. Your shove doesn't look strong...it looks weak. (Which is good considering our holdings as it prompted a call.) It's definately a hero call on his part, but can be justified if he's reading you as a maniac.I am likely giving him too much credit, but I don't think you are giving him enough either.