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Ok... So You Can't Fold A Pair.... Now What?


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The following happens to me to often on 50 NL on stars recently and I am starting to wonder who is really making the most worse plays in this hand....Let's put ourselves in my opponents shoes during the hand... we are at a fullring table...effective stacks of 100 BB...our stats would suggest, that we are fairly tight.... we have an agression factor of 2.Villain in this hand is Mikebauer. He is fairly new to us and currently has stats of 17/6/2.5 over the last 50-100 hands.We are UTG+1 and limp with :ts:club:. (We probably don't read in forums)Mikebauer raises 4 BB from MP. Everybody folds. We call.The pot now is 9 BB and the board comes:qd :5c :7cwe check... Mikebauer bets 7 BB... we call.Turn: (Potsize 25 BB minus rake obv):D:3h:D :5swe check... Mikebauer bets 17 BB... we callRiver: (Potsize: 59 BB minus rake obv):D:qh:D:4h :jcwe check..... Mikebauer checks behind with the only hand we beat: AK.... GG. We winz.... lolz AK! We knew it! We ownz everyonz! We is soo cool!Now the questions from (Mikebauers) perspective are:River....Should Mikebauer have three-barreled the River? We are obviously interested in the pot and might even hero-call him down with JT. (which would be a retarded hand to show up with here)Should Mikebauer bet again on the river with AA or KK or check it down hoping to be good?Turn...Should Mikebauer bet this turn at all after Heros Flop-call? Given that both players don't know each other?Flop...Was the board too obvious to C-Bet because there are too few plausible draws out there? From "Heros" Perspective there is only 1 question:Are you calling this turn here at a Fullring game against a mostly unkwown seemingly tight user with just a pair of Tens because villain will have AK and JK often enough?

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When you're deciding whether to 2-barrel, you have to consider two primary factors:1) Villain - can this opponent fold to pressure or does he like to call down?2) Board texture - you should be more inclined to bet when a board gets scarier. Look at this example; the turn changed nothing (ok, 68 got there, but that's hardly scary because you have it .005% of the time). A standard blank came down. If villain liked his hand OTF then he probably STILL likes it. Note that there's no FD OTF so he's probably got a pair, and his pair, in his mind, is still good. For these reasons, this is a bad board to double barrel. Yeah, some players will fold any pair to a double barrel, regardless of texture, but you have to ID who these guys are (and it's hard to do that, anyway, as you cannot see their hands). Good board to c/bet, as it's fairly dry and he cannot call you w/much (and you do have equity against a naked pair), but the door swings both ways, as it were, and you shouldn't fire another round.

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From Villains perspective, he is calling that flop all day. C-Bets are common place these days and calling a C-Bet on that board is also very common. In his shoes, I probably do the same thing.Bet on the turn looks like a made hand to me from Villain's perspective. Maybe he is just stubborn and doesn't believe you (he was right). If I were the Villain, I am folding to a 1/2 - 2/3 River Bet. Unfortunately, you blanked the entire board and can only bet if you KNOW the Villain is folding.In short, play by both players is standard pre and post flop. Turn bet by Hero shows strength and a lot of Villains fold there. Maybe he folds if the J came on the turn. His thought process may have been, "Either he has a Q or he doesn't. Chances that he has a Q are slim and I can beat the rest of the board."We've all been on both sides of this hand many times.

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Gotta find the heart to fire the third bullet there, but thats hard to do in that spot. I can't see any problems with villains line, I'd play it pretty similar without a solid read tbh. Are you just tilting from a bad session Mike?

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With only one overcard by the turn, a call with TT isn't too bad. If it were me (being in either guy's shoes), I'd figure I were beat, but I'm a nit and always assume I'm beat. :club: However, TT would have a hard time calling a river bet here. (I'd bet this guy would, though.) Betting the river depends on your read of the guy. Does he call two cards and fold to a river a lot, or does he showdown with any pair?I think the other guy's biggest mistake was not betting on the flop, or the turn. I would have bet both, unless you raised me on the flop, in which case I'm probably done with the hand (considering your stats). He was the one that dropped the ball, not you. I don't think I'd bet the river here considering that we don't know the guy that well. It's a way ahead way behind situation. The only people who would call your river bet have you beat and you're just contributing to someone elses pot.

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With only one overcard by the turn, a call with TT isn't too bad. If it were me (being in either guy's shoes), I'd figure I were beat, but I'm a nit and always assume I'm beat. :club: However, TT would have a hard time calling a river bet here. (I'd bet this guy would, though.) Betting the river depends on your read of the guy. Does he call two cards and fold to a river a lot, or does he showdown with any pair?I think the other guy's biggest mistake was not betting on the flop, or the turn. I would have bet both, unless you raised me on the flop, in which case I'm probably done with the hand (considering your stats). He was the one that dropped the ball, not you. I don't think I'd bet the river here considering that we don't know the guy that well. It's a way ahead way behind situation. The only people who would call your river bet have you beat and you're just contributing to someone elses pot.
I think this is the villain took the line he did. That board is insanely dry, if a villain donked into me and I have AK on that board I'm raising close to 100% of the time, villain hates the thought of that with a good holding like TT so extracts the max when he's ahead and loses the minimum when he's up against AQ, JJ+.The river is different. I think if Mike pulled the trigger there villain has to lay down TT because AJ just got there and 3-streets of betting is a very strong line indicitive of KK+. You might be right that this particular villain was just a station but in a vacuum I don't mind how this hand was played.
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