Beating Variance

[Tration101 0]

So I know i'm one of the many people who have tried this, and i know Daniel is currently working on his own challenge, but i'm trying to get some opinions on how to run up some money on stars playing strictly cash.My starting BR is 10$ and my conservative goal is getting it up to $1,000 by the end of the year. Taking into consideration that i will only be playing a few hours a night. Looking at Dn's guidelines: "1. I won't move up in limits unless I have 500 big blinds for that limit. I'm starting at $0.01-$0.02 with a $10 bankroll.2. When possible, my buy in amount will allow me 5 buy ins at that limit. For example, if I have $5 left, my buy in for the game will be $1. I'll continue to do that until I dip below the min buy in.3. I will play only NL cash games. I'll try to play full ring games as much as possible.4. NEW: If I double my bankroll in a session I'll quit on my blind to help avoid risking too high a percentage of my bankroll in any one hand.5. NEW: At about the $5-$10 limit I may decide to increase the number of big blinds required to move up in limits. 500 BB's is plenty for the micro games, but could be rather short for the higher limit games with better opponents. I'll base my decision on when to do that at my discretion.6. NEW: I may also lower the buy in amount for the higher limit games from 1/5th of my bankroll per session to 1/10th of my bankroll per session. Again, I'll make that decision when the time comes.7. NEW: When the amount needed to reach the goal is less than the 1/5th of the bankroll buy in, the buy in will be equal to the amount needed to reach the goal. Example: If 1/5th of the bankroll is $4.50 but you only need $2.50 to reach the goal, the buy in for the next session will be $2.50."While i agree with some of his guidelines, i don't think he allows for the possibility of variance getting the best of him during the medium stakes games (or even during the lower stakes games). I know starting with 10$ really doesn't allow for a huge swing down at the start, but assuming i don't go busto right off the bat, i want to know what people think is a good amount of money to move up with. I've heard having at least 20-25 buy-ins gives pretty good wiggle room, is that too much considering the underrolled nature of the challenge??Please, any advice is welcome. I tend to be too conservative in terms of BR management (until i get drunk lol), so im looking for a nice balance here. Thanks

[Solar 0]

Assuming you are fairly new to poker, there is no chance you will be able to reliably beat games at the 2/4 or 1/2 level in a year. I've been playing for over a year and have just recently started beating .25/.50 consistantly. What I'm trying to say is don't get too hung up on buy in numbers. DN is moving up at a specific point because he is pretty certain he can beat each new level. Move up when you are happy you can crush the current level and are comfortable playing for more money at the next level.I would say it would be best to get to about the .05/.1 games as quick as pos. It's just a donk fest below there and you won't learn much that will help you later. Once there I would say a minimum of 20 buyins. If you play well 20 should be enough in terms of not going broke, and the swings won't cut too far into your roll.You could do this, if you keep your mind on the goal and work on your game. Also don't expect your winnings to be linear for the whole year. If you are over $200 after 6 months you would be well on track.

[Kid DynOmite 0]

i don't know where people are getting the idea that 5, 10, 20 buy ins is enough to play if you can't go broke. You need at least 40 bi to ensure not going broke. when I was coming up my 3k br fell to 1850, then my 4k br fell to 2550. It happens and it sucks. If you want to beat variance, give yourself 40 bi and make sure you're good enough to beat the game you're in.

[trystero 0]

Every so often Snamuh makes good posts regarding long-term progress. Most people hear about DN's road to glory and they want to try the same thing, about as fast, too. Well, that's not really realistic. You should worry more about developing your skills than moving up in limits ASAP. The more time you put into the game, the better you'll be; and then when you DO have the bankroll to move up, you can feel confident about beating the next limit rather than getting spanked around (which can still happen of course).I also think it's safe to say that you'll generally need more BIs at higher levels. Obviously you'll need more BIs at $200 NL than at $10 NL - the players are stronger and you're put in way more marginal situations. Eventually, though, you get to a point where you cannot have the same rigid BR requirements because of feasibility. When you become a nosebleed celebrity you probably won't even have 10 BIs so the game becomes "shot taking."FWIW if you're starting at 10NL then I think you can get away with 20 BIs, but really only at that limit; even at 25nl you should have at least 30.