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I almost didn't want to post this, because I am inevitably going to get flamed for it, but I suppose I'll stimulate some discussion:Am I the only one who thinks this play may be -EV?I'll post my thoughts in a bit, I gotta go to class, but part of me thinks this play may be -EV. ESPECIALLY if PE doesn't wake up here with 2x, as BG specifically says in his podcasthe's going bust vs. Dwan in a situation like this.Albiet, I know saying and doing are 2 different things.Still sick hand regardless.

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Really disagree with the bold. With how tight Barry had been playing why wouldn't you want to play anything decent > 200 bbs deep in position vs. the original raiser when you have a fairly strong idea of what their range is? As far as the flop, it's 100% a bluff. At first I didn't get it either but he knows exactly what Barry's range is and is effectively forcing him to play for stacks (since he's always gonna barrel the turn, not letting him get to showdown) with 1 pair in an 8 way pot pre where he's (durrrr) repping a deuce. Durrr has a 10 also so he has a blocker to both of the possible boat combos on the flop. It's really really really hard for anybody to continue postflop when he raises that bet with 6 people behidn without like k2/a2
I think Barry's hand range, preflop, is a little large than you think it is. I don't think it's JJ-AA and AK or something,I think Barry can have under pairs to the 10 there, or over cards but I do think it's pretty well defined by his flop bet into the entire table ( literally). . But Durrr knows, that when he raises, and if barry calls ( particularly over calls), that his range has to be really narrow indeed. The more I think about it, the more I think that Barry made three major mistakes on the hand. The first two have been talked about ( the flop call, and the turn fold). But what hasn't been talked about is his flop bet. IF Barry bets there, his hand becomes, as noted, extremely well defined. I think he should have checked the flop, and either check/raise, check/call or check/fold depending on the flop action. He has no information at all about anyone else's hand ( which could literally be any two cards). A free card won't really hurt him often, as he's probably way ahead/way behind and there's absolutely no draws. If durr bets out and eastgate raises, barry can fold. If Durr bets out, and eastgate calls, barry can call ( or raise, depending on his read of the situation). If it gets checked around to eastgate, and eastgate bets, barry can raise or call ( calling as a way of slow playing). I think betting out just builds the pot for a 2, completely advertises what you have, and allows someone crazy like Durrr to take the pot away from you.
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I think Barry's hand range, preflop, is a little large than you think it is. I don't think it's JJ-AA and AK or something,I think Barry can have under pairs to the 10 there, or over cards but I do think it's pretty well defined by his flop bet into the entire table ( literally). . But Durrr knows, that when he raises, and if barry calls ( particularly over calls), that his range has to be really narrow indeed. The more I think about it, the more I think that Barry made three major mistakes on the hand. The first two have been talked about ( the flop call, and the turn fold). But what hasn't been talked about is his flop bet. IF Barry bets there, his hand becomes, as noted, extremely well defined. I think he should have checked the flop, and either check/raise, check/call or check/fold depending on the flop action. He has no information at all about anyone else's hand ( which could literally be any two cards). A free card won't really hurt him often, as he's probably way ahead/way behind and there's absolutely no draws. If durr bets out and eastgate raises, barry can fold. If Durr bets out, and eastgate calls, barry can call ( or raise, depending on his read of the situation). If it gets checked around to eastgate, and eastgate bets, barry can raise or call ( calling as a way of slow playing). I think betting out just builds the pot for a 2, completely advertises what you have, and allows someone crazy like Durrr to take the pot away from you.
I would really love to hear Durr's analysis...For example does me make the same play if Eli raised under the gun? What does he do preflop/flop/turn if Eli is there??Does he make the big bet on the turn if its Daniel,Zigmund,Eli overcalling the flop?I am beginning to think the only reason he looked like a genius is because Eastgate made a bad laydown..I dont hate Barry folding but Eastgate folding there might the worst play of any of the other people involved in the hand..IMO
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I guess I maybe wrong in my thinking as I am a little old school and dont consider q 10 a hand you want to battle with...I think the call wouldnt be as bad if there werent 6 guys behind, were the likely of you getting heads up is very slim. Especially after flat calling and inviting the others in with the pot odds you are giving them.Again I am probably wrong and I dont play high stakes no limit OBV, but i know Doyle,Barry, and other "old" school players dont make that call.Is it wrong?I dont know.I am still amazed at the high level these guys play at though.
The thing is with Barry raising UTG he does basically show his hand face up, so knowing this I think it's pretty safe for Durrr to call with this kind of hand because only someone with a very strong hand like AA-QQ will r/r Barry. No one is going to r/r light here with Barry raising it. A squeeze will definitely not work here, so I think Durr knows that as well. And I'm guessing that's why Doyle limped/called with KK twice. Doyle is disguising his hand, Barry really wasn't. That is sometimes the problem at playing so nitty at a table like this, you basically are showing your hands face up when you come in for a raise.ETA: Playing this nitty, you'll either get NO action or everyone will call in hopes of getting lucky and cracking your hand. At a home game I play at we used to do this to one guy all the time. If he raised we knew he had a big pocket pair so we would basically all call him with ATC.
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I am beginning to think the only reason he looked like a genius is because Eastgate made a bad laydown..
I don't have much to say on Eastgate's fold, but I can only imagine what this message board looks like in the alternate universe where the hand plays out differently..... Everyone talking about how much of a donkey Dwan is when he loses 130K when Eastgate comes over the top. How could he lose sooo much when everyone knew what everyone's hands were because everything was sooo clearly defined.....Everyone is talking about his genius play because it worked, I imagine there would be just as many (probably many of the same posters) saying he is a lucky online joker if it didn't work. Hopefully SBD3 will be able to explain why it is a -EV play better than me (because I won't even try, cuz I dumm), but I'm not sure this play works more than 50% of the time. We just witnessed one of the good times.
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This is one of the few times that I will actually agree with Rose, but don't quote me on it.
thx Gallo lol, I look at the physically tells that nurses are trained at, Respirtory rate (breathing rate) where are they breathing from nose, mouth, stomach, deep, swallow, fast, slow, colour changes in face or nail beds, neck veins distension, tightening of the skin in the forehead, or other places on the face, any facial movements, hand movements, eye movements or change in size of pupils of eyes if you are close enough. The main thing you look at the whole body, as a whole. Reaction of the body. Get the book by Joe Narravo Read Em and Reap it is awesome.http://www.navarropoker.com/he will be at the WSOP Advanced Academy April 18- 19 In Las Vegas at Caesars March 29-30 at Caesar's Indiana
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I don't have much to say on Eastgate's fold, but I can only imagine what this message board looks like in the alternate universe where the hand plays out differently..... Everyone talking about how much of a donkey Dwan is when he loses 130K when Eastgate comes over the top. How could he lose sooo much when everyone knew what everyone's hands were because everything was sooo clearly defined.....Everyone is talking about his genius play because it worked, I imagine there would be just as many (probably many of the same posters) saying he is a lucky online joker if it didn't work. Hopefully SBD3 will be able to explain why it is a -EV play better than me (because I won't even try, cuz I dumm), but I'm not sure this play works more than 50% of the time. We just witnessed one of the good times.
This play worked because it was PE and Barry involved. I don't honestly think anyone at the table folds their hands to Durrr in this hand. Look at the when Doyle had KK and Eli fired 2 bullets with the board paired. Doyle was ready to go broke there.
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The thing is with Barry raising UTG he does basically show his hand face up, so knowing this I think it's pretty safe for Durrr to call with this kind of hand because only someone with a very strong hand like AA-QQ will r/r Barry. No one is going to r/r light here with Barry raising it. A squeeze will definitely not work here, so I think Durr knows that as well. And I'm guessing that's why Doyle limped/called with KK twice. Doyle is disguising his hand, Barry really wasn't. That is sometimes the problem at playing so nitty at a table like this, you basically are showing your hands face up when you come in for a raise.
Again, I don't think barry's raising UTG is as crystal clear as you are making it to be . Barry isn't a rock or Stupak or something. He could have any pair there, a big ace, a big suited cards, and he's capable ( though not likely) of having a suited connector there. No, what makes Barry's hand completely evident was his flop bet. HE can't be bluffing into that big of field.
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i think everyone needs to stop asking what happens if some one else is in PE's spot, because we all know they dont fold. poker is situational so you cant go and change everything around. with that said dwan's play was marvelous and he pulled it off against the players that most likely arent going to call him as opposed to everyone else on the table

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I don't have much to say on Eastgate's fold, but I can only imagine what this message board looks like in the alternate universe where the hand plays out differently..... Everyone talking about how much of a donkey Dwan is when he loses 130K when Eastgate comes over the top. How could he lose sooo much when everyone knew what everyone's hands were because everything was sooo clearly defined.....Everyone is talking about his genius play because it worked, I imagine there would be just as many (probably many of the same posters) saying he is a lucky online joker if it didn't work. Hopefully SBD3 will be able to explain why it is a -EV play better than me (because I won't even try, cuz I dumm), but I'm not sure this play works more than 50% of the time. We just witnessed one of the good times.
agreed...I think your 50% is very generous...I think its closer to 5%..You have to have very tight/nitty/ thinking players in the Eastgate and Barry position. Most players arent laying AA down there, and definetely not trips.
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Again, I don't think barry's raising UTG is as crystal clear as you are making it to be . Barry isn't a rock or Stupak or something. He could have any pair there, a big ace, a big suited cards, and he's capable ( though not likely) of having a suited connector there. No, what makes Barry's hand completely evident was his flop bet. HE can't be bluffing into that big of field.
I agree totally with Barry betting out it opens his hand more. But what I said was in refernce to why Durrr could call with Q10 with 6-7 people still left to act.
i think everyone needs to stop asking what happens if some one else is in PE's spot, because we all know they dont fold. poker is situational so you cant go and change everything around. with that said dwan's play was marvelous and he pulled it off against the players that most likely arent going to call him as opposed to everyone else on the table
I sort of get what you're saying, but I sort of don't. What/who are you referring to? Are you saying that if it was anyone else in PE's spot they would call or they wouldn't?
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I agree totally with Barry betting out it opens his hand more. But what I said was in refernce to why Durrr could call with Q10 with 6-7 people still left to act.I sort of get what you're saying, but I sort of don't. What/who are you referring to? Are you saying that if it was anyone else in PE's spot they would call or they wouldn't?
saying if it was anyone else they would call. also on an unrelated note i like Barry's point about PE buying in for too much money and not being able to put 500k in the middle there
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saying if it was anyone else they would call. also on an unrelated note i like Barry's point about PE buying in for too much money and not being able to put 500k in the middle there
where does barry say that?
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saying if it was anyone else they would call. also on an unrelated note i like Barry's point about PE buying in for too much money and not being able to put 500k in the middle there
That's another great point.If Eastgate has $200K instead of over $500K in front of him he makes the call and you know that Durr factored that into his play.
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Alright I'm throwing this together quickly before my intramural bball championship (thinly veiled brag), so it may be incoherent. My apologies. Here we go.........As you know poker is about the long haul and not a small sample size. No one plays the exact hands the exact same way and there is "balancing" to what you do (i.e. you don't 3-bet ONLY you're top 3% hands, etc.).Now onto why I think it may be -EV, and keep in mind most of this analysis is coming from Durrr's POV:1) Durr's flop raise. I don't think Durrr expected PE to wake up with trips here, although no doubt once PE calls Durrr has to know he has at least trips (as the post-hand table talk showed). But raising BG in this spot is borderline-suicidal given BG's line. He raised PF, got 7 callers and is now c-betting. As BG stated in the podcast, that should signal to EVERYONE at the table including Durrr "I have JJ+". BG also says he's never betting 22 or TT here and I don't think he's EVER betting 33-99 or any overcards (AK for ex.) that bricked, here as that would be mentally retarded.2) BG states in his podcast he knew before the show he would have confrontations with Dwan and would have to play for stacks in some tricky spots. This is one of those spots. So in short, if PE doesn't wake up with trips, BG is 3-betting everytime (according to him). This gives me more reason to believe that this is a retarded play post-flop by Dwan and I'm sure Dwan knows he's going to get looked up light.3) PE doesn't ALWAYS fold everytime in this spot, sometimes he gets it in with this exact hand. What that actual % is, is unknown, but I don't think Dwan has played with PE enough to know that PE folds this 100% of the time.4) EVEN IF PE folds, there is still a % of the time BG gets it in vs Dwan here with his AA, which according to his podcast he almost did.5) PE doesn't always have to have 2-baby here. As far as Dwan knows he could have A2 (he doesn't know for a fact Barry has AA so he knows A2 is a possibility) and any other 2x where PE doesn't feel like Tom has such a high chance of having a bigger 2 if that is in fact what Dwan has. PE could also have TT although unlikely given Tom's hand. I believe PE was in the SB in this hand which gives him a wider calling range because he's getting ridiculous odds in such a big pot where there's already 6-way action.Maybe some of the Challenge Thread people who are better than me can further analyze this if they agree with me, or give counter examples and prove me wrong.I have to say this is the most interesting hand I've ever seen on TV, bar none. I think it's way above Doyle's QQ fold to Chip Reese in terms of being interesting.On another note, NOBODY seems comfortable playing these limits besides Dwan. Every decision just seems to cause so much agony for players except Dwan.

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Alright I'm throwing this together quickly before my intramural bball championship (thinly veiled brag), so it may be incoherent. My apologies. Here we go.........As you know poker is about the long haul and not a small sample size. No one plays the exact hands the exact same way and there is "balancing" to what you do (i.e. you don't 3-bet ONLY you're top 3% hands, etc.).Now onto why I think it may be -EV, and keep in mind most of this analysis is coming from Durrr's POV:1) Durr's flop raise. I don't think Durrr expected PE to wake up with trips here, although no doubt once PE calls Durrr has to know he has at least trips (as the post-hand table talk showed). But raising BG in this spot is borderline-suicidal given BG's line. He raised PF, got 7 callers and is now c-betting. As BG stated in the podcast, that should signal to EVERYONE at the table including Durrr "I have JJ+". BG also says he's never betting 22 or TT here and I don't think he's EVER betting 33-99 or any overcards (AK for ex.) that bricked, here as that would be mentally retarded.2) BG states in his podcast he knew before the show he would have confrontations with Dwan and would have to play for stacks in some tricky spots. This is one of those spots. So in short, if PE doesn't wake up with trips, BG is 3-betting everytime (according to him). This gives me more reason to believe that this is a retarded play post-flop by Dwan and I'm sure Dwan knows he's going to get looked up light.3) PE doesn't ALWAYS fold everytime in this spot, sometimes he gets it in with this exact hand. What that actual % is, is unknown, but I don't think Dwan has played with PE enough to know that PE folds this 100% of the time.4) EVEN IF PE folds, there is still a % of the time BG gets it in vs Dwan here with his AA, which according to his podcast he almost did.5) PE doesn't always have to have 2-baby here. As far as Dwan knows he could have A2 (he doesn't know for a fact Barry has AA so he knows A2 is a possibility) and any other 2x where PE doesn't feel like Tom has such a high chance of having a bigger 2 if that is in fact what Dwan has. PE could also have TT although unlikely given Tom's hand. I believe PE was in the SB in this hand which gives him a wider calling range because he's getting ridiculous odds in such a big pot where there's already 6-way action.Maybe some of the Challenge Thread people who are better than me can further analyze this if they agree with me, or give counter examples and prove me wrong.I have to say this is the most interesting hand I've ever seen on TV, bar none. I think it's way above Doyle's QQ fold to Chip Reese in terms of being interesting.On another note, NOBODY seems comfortable playing these limits besides Dwan. Every decision just seems to cause so much agony for players except Dwan.
Your first point is horrible, no offense. They saw the flop 8 ways for god's sake, ya he is signaling JJ+, that's why durrrr raised.
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As BG stated in the podcast, that should signal to EVERYONE at the table including Durrr "I have JJ+".
...which is what it did. Dwan then went a level deeper and said, "I know you have JJ+, but I'm still raising." Him having the T certainly helps to block out TT, and the fact that it's a 22 board instead of 66 helps since it somewhat cuts down on the likelihood of trips. That said, I think the reason that Dwan's flop raise might be a little ambitious is that with that loose of a lineup, it's still quite plausible that someone has trips. Like, Daniel, Ziig, and Daniel are plenty capable of having 2x with position on Dwan. I also don't feel like Dwan's flatting there with 2x pre considering the whole field behind him...which is what it makes it so sick in my mind. He's basically repping one hand...TT. Usually, you'd rather represent a range of decent hands when you're bluffing...but I feel like he's representing essentially one.Anyone think Barry should've limped pre? The table had shown that it was plenty capable of raising and getting out of line lightly.
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Anyone think Barry should've limped pre? The table had shown that it was plenty capable of raising and getting out of line lightly.
Totally off the subject but...I absolutely thought HE WAS GOING to limp when they showed he had AA....like I thought it was 60% or more he would limp, with what the dynamics were at that point.
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It's a shame Daniel doesn't get involved in these discussions. Would be nice to hear his thoughts on a couple of key hands, or maybe just in general about how much of a difference there is between what we see on tv, and how things went down on the actual day.

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