Need Advice On Big Draw In 1/2 Cash

[Dictius 0]

Here is a graph of the EV of a flop shove and the percentage of times the villain folds on the flop for three different equities we might have on the flop.We have about a 45% chance of winning against a hand like AdAx or Two Pair.We have about a 50% chance of winning against AdKx.We have about a 65% chance of wining against something like AdTx or 9d9x.I calculated this by EV=Fold%*Pot + (1 – Fold%)*(Equity*Final Pot – Raise)So in this case Raise = $148 (the amount left in our stack), Final Pot = $340 (The pot size if our shove gets called on the flop) and Pot = $69 (Amount of money in the pot after villain bets the flop).If we call the flop the immediate EV of calling a flop bet is $5.5 if we have 33% chance to hit on the turn, -$1.25 for a 25% chance to hit and -$3.85 for a 22% chance to hit.If we call the flop and we call a turn shoveIf the Villain then shoves the turn the EV from calling the flop then calling the turn is $-3.5 if we had 45% equity on the flop, $7.6 if we had 50% equity on the flop and $40.9 if we had 60% equity on the flop. This includes the EV of times we hit on the turn and call his shove when he is drawing dead + the times he shoves the turn after we miss and call.If we call the flop and fold to a turn shoveThis option is approximately 0EV.If we call the flop and villain check/foldsIf we call the flop and the villain shuts down, this is the same EV as if villain would have just folded to a flop shove.If we call the flop and villain check/callsIf we call the flop and the villain check/calls, this is the same EV as if villain shoved turn and we called.ConclusionIf you look at the graph its is more +EV to shove the flop no matter what the villain does in response than any other option.tl;dr version:Shove flop.

[antistuff 0]

OK look, here's the thing. I agree with raising someone who plays tighter/more competent. I understand the FE, blah blah blah.... Totally would agree with that.Raising a guy like this with Q high just seems wrong though. You know he's gonna put it in with any 2 every other hand so why not make our hand first and then make him pay? There's a reason they say you shouldn't bluff idiots. And I realize this is a semi-bluff, but we are either Wayyyyyy ahead or flipping a coin if he ends up pushing over the top of us. I pretty much want this guy around until the river no matter what. I'm trying to bust villain with the lowest amount of risk to me. Not take down a $30 pot or flip a coin for it all.

with this many outs the distinction between a made hand and a draw gets blurred on the flop. to say you "only have queen high" is silly.

[Zach6668 513]

I dunno if your numbers are right, Dictius, but great post nonetheless.

[Acid_Knight 2]

OK look, here's the thing. I agree with raising someone who plays tighter/more competent. I understand the FE, blah blah blah.... Totally would agree with that.Raising a guy like this with Q high just seems wrong though. You know he's gonna put it in with any 2 every other hand so why not make our hand first and then make him pay? There's a reason they say you shouldn't bluff idiots. And I realize this is a semi-bluff, but we are either Wayyyyyy ahead or flipping a coin if he ends up pushing over the top of us. I pretty much want this guy around until the river no matter what. I'm trying to bust villain with the lowest amount of risk to me. Not take down a $30 pot or flip a coin for it all.

I didn't read most of the posts. If he puts us in with any two, great! Let's say he has ATo. We have 9 flush cards, 5 straight cards (would be 8, but subtract the two diamond straight cards and the A in his hand) and then we have 6 pair outs. That's 20 outs, TWICE! Even if he has a set of kings, we're still close to 50/50. He folds a lot and there's a lot of money out there. We play hands like QJs to flop draws like this so we can shove and take down the pot or get it in as a 50/50 shot while the $$ in the pot is making it extremely profitable for us.

[BaseJester 1]

ConclusionIf you look at the graph its is more +EV to shove the flop no matter what the villain does in response than any other option.tl;dr version:Shove flop.

The point of reference (EV=0) on your graph is folding. The option we should consider is call the fold and call the turn only if we hit. This is also +EV against non-folding villains, moreso in fact. For 15 outs, here's the math roughly:

Event	Probability	Stack delta	EVHit a draw	0.333333333	184	61.33333333Miss a draw	0.666666667	-25	-16.66666667		net EV:	44.66666667

It's a basic implied odds situation. His stack is laying us 7:1 on our 2:1 draw.To solve this with a graph, I think we need a line for call/call-if-hit and see where it intersects the shove graph for each equity.

[Dictius 0]

The point of reference (EV=0) on your graph is folding. The option we should consider is call the fold and call the turn only if we hit. This is also +EV against non-folding villains, moreso in fact. For 15 outs, here's the math roughly:

Event	Probability	Stack delta	EVHit a draw	0.333333333	184	61.33333333Miss a draw	0.666666667	-25	-16.66666667		net EV:	44.66666667

It's a basic implied odds situation. His stack is laying us 7:1 on our 2:1 draw.To solve this with a graph, I think we need a line for call/call-if-hit and see where it intersects the shove graph for each equity.

I don't think this Math is correct. If the plan is to call the flop and call a turn shove only if we hit. That means it is costing us $25 to buy a 33% chance at making a profit of $184. So the equation should be Expected Value = Profit - Cost = 0.33*184 - 25 = $35.70.So yeah this is +EV, pretty much anything we do in this hand is going to be +EV because we are so strong, but what move is the most +EV?If we think we have 15 outs, or roughly 65% on the flop, you can see from the graph the EV of shoving the flop with 65% equity is greater than $35.7, so a shove is more profitable, although the call/call-if-hit line is also profitable.I am sure I have stuffed up the actual numbers of stack sizes and stuff somewhere, but I don't think it effects the outcome of my argument.

[BaseJester 1]

I don't think this Math is correct. If the plan is to call the flop and call a turn shove only if we hit. That means it is costing us $25 to buy a 33% chance at making a profit of $184. So the equation should be Expected Value = Profit - Cost = 0.33*184 - 25 = $35.70.

If we win, it doesn't cost us anything. EV = sum of all outcomes times their respective probabilitiesEV = Profit (Pprofit) - Loss (Ploss)"Profit" already has our costs taken out.If you want to do it with total equity, that will work, too:EV = Total average equity - Total average cost EV = 1/3(44+140x2) - [ 25 + 1/3*(115) ]Try this thinking on a simpler case.Pot = $1Villain = $1Hero is a 2:1 dog with a flush draw on the flop with $1 left. Calling is break even.WRONG:EV = profit (probability of winning) - cost EV = 1/3 (2) - 1EV = 2/3 - 1 = -1/3RIGHT:EV = profit - lossEV = 1/3(2) - (2/3)(1)EV = 2/3 - 2/3 = 0RIGHT:EV = equity - costEV = 1/3 (3) - 1EV = 0

So yeah this is +EV, pretty much anything we do in this hand is going to be +EV because we are so strong, but what move is the most +EV?If we think we have 15 outs, or roughly 65% on the flop, . . .

15 outs is 50% equity on the flop, not 65%. If we have 65% equity, then we're just betting for value.

[simo_8ball 0]

100% of the time this guy straddles he'll either raise or reraise

Raise preflop, when he reraises, shove. Simple.

[Zach6668 513]

Raise preflop, when he reraises, shove. Simple.

Ez game.

[mtdesmoines 3]

Raise preflop, when he reraises, shove. Simple.

LOLz