king1305 0 Posted January 31, 2009 Author Share Posted January 31, 2009 OK sent $20 for 2 squares. Aceplayer01(anytown usa)..Hello AcePlayer01,We have transferred $20.00 from your account to 'king1305' as per your request.Good luck to you both.Regards,PokerStars Cashieroh ok.Hello king1305,We have transferred $20.00 to your account as requested by 'AcePlayer01'.Good luck to you both.Regards,PokerStars Cashier Link to post Share on other sites
PokerFan 0 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 Saved.Yes.Ok. King1305 on Stars or FTP.Just bought one for my roommate.Who is AcePlayer01 on Stars, they jsut sent me 20$?Thats me Pokerfan Link to post Share on other sites
king1305 0 Posted January 31, 2009 Author Share Posted January 31, 2009 38 spoken for. Link to post Share on other sites
CodyHartman 0 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 shipping 10$ on PS and $10 on Tilt as well.count me in for 2.Stars name is KingOfDaClubTilt name is CodyHartman Link to post Share on other sites
therescav 0 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 I'll take 4. Shipping to you on stars Link to post Share on other sites
GetSprung 0 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 I'll take two I guess. I can ship when I get off work if anyone can vouch for me. Please? Someone vouch for me. Link to post Share on other sites
king1305 0 Posted January 31, 2009 Author Share Posted January 31, 2009 I'll take two I guess. I can ship when I get off work if anyone can vouch for me. Please? Someone vouch for me.vouched Link to post Share on other sites
king1305 0 Posted January 31, 2009 Author Share Posted January 31, 2009 shipping 10$ on PS and $10 on Tilt as well.count me in for 2.Stars name is KingOfDaClubTilt name is CodyHartmanThis is an automated message sent from Full Tilt Poker. Your Player ID: King1305 From Player ID: CodyHartman Date and Time: 2009-01-30 21:29:40 Transfer Number: 02C63B56 Amount: $10.00 Status: APPROVEDThis transfer has been approved. The funds are now available in your account.Thank you for playing at Full Tilt PokerHello king1305,We have transferred $10.00 to your account as requested by 'KingOfDaClub'.Good luck to you both.Regards,PokerStars Cashier Link to post Share on other sites
CodyHartman 0 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 Just shipped $10 from my Stars and Tilt account to you.Oh I see you were right on top of it.Any thoughts to doing it the way Jeepster suggested??? Super Bowl SquaresThis is a re-run of a post I ran a year ago:Three Super Bowls ago, I wrote this post over at Sabernomics. In it, I looked at your probability of winning a squares pool with any given square. For example, I found that in a one-unit-per-square pool, either of the ‘0/7′ squares would have an expected value of about 3.8 units. Compare that with, say, a ‘5/6′ square, which has an expected value of 0.22, or the lowly `2/2′ square and its expected value of .04. Because it was all the data I had at the time, I only considered the last digits of the final scores of games, but someone correctly pointed out in the comments that most pools also give prizes for (the last digits of) the cumulative scores at the end of each quarter.Well, now I have score-by-quarter data for the entirety of the NFL’s 2-point-conversion era (1994–present), so it’s time for an update.I’m sure there are lots of ways to do this, but a bit of googling indicates that a standard payout structure is something like 10% of the pot after each of the first three quarters, and 70% for the final. This doesn’t alter things too drastically, but it does have a couple of effects. * The ‘0/7′ squares enjoy an even larger advantage over an average square. The ‘0/7′ squares have an expected value of about 4.9 under this scheme. * The ‘0/0′ square starts climbing the charts.More than 20% of all games are in a ‘0/0′ situation (remember, that includes 10-0 and 10-10 as well as 0-0) after one quarter. At halftime, about 7.5% of all games are a ‘0/0.’ So the more weight you put on the intermediate stages, the better the ‘0/0′ square looks. Here is a chart that shows the expected value of a given square after each quarter, along with a final column that shows the expected value under a 10/10/10/70 system:+-----+-----+------+------+------+------+------+| | | q1ev | q2ev | q3ev | q4ev | ev |+-----+-----+------+------+------+------+------+| 7 | 0 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 4.9 || 0 | 0 | 20.5 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 4.5 || 3 | 0 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 4.1 || 7 | 7 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 3.3 || 7 | 4 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.1 || 7 | 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 2.7 || 4 | 0 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.4 || 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.8 || 3 | 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.8 || 4 | 3 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 || 7 | 1 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 || 6 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 || 4 | 4 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 || 6 | 3 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 || 1 | 0 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 || 7 | 6 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.1 || 3 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 || 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 || 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 || 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 || 9 | 7 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 || 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 || 9 | 3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 || 9 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 || 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 || 8 | 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 || 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 || 5 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 || 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 || 9 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 || 7 | 2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 || 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 || 8 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 || 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 || 2 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 || 9 | 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 || 9 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 || 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 || 8 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 || 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 || 8 | 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 || 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 || 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 || 9 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 || 8 | 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 || 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 || 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 || 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 || 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 || 9 | 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 || 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 || 9 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 || 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 || 9 | 9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 || 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |+-----+-----+------+------+------+------+------+Here’s how to read that. Take the top line for example. If you have one of the two ‘0/7′ squares, then your expected value is 11.8% of the first-quarter pot, 5.6% of the second-quarter pot, and so on. With the 10/10/10/70 system, your overall expected value would be about 4.9.As I was poking around the web looking for info on standard payout schemes for these kinds of pools, I came across this page. One of the commenters there suggests using not the final digit of each team’s score, but the final digit of the sum of each team’s score. So a 17 would be an 8, a 22 would be a 4, and a 38 would be a 1.I was too lazy to check this one out quarter-by-quarter, but just looking at final scores, this scheme produces a much flatter expected value curve.... Link to post Share on other sites
Suited_Up 2 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 I'll take 2 and I also suggest Jeepester version. Link to post Share on other sites
GetSprung 0 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 I'll take 2 and I also suggest Jeepester version.I just want to make sure I have my squares and can figure out which way we are doing this before the start of the game. Link to post Share on other sites
king1305 0 Posted January 31, 2009 Author Share Posted January 31, 2009 If you want Jeepster way, run one. I'm not doin it.Goin out now, will confirm later. Link to post Share on other sites
Suited_Up 2 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 If you want Jeepster way, run one. I'm not doin it.Goin out now, will confirm later.You probably love winner take all tournaments too!Whatever....I sent my money anyway. So I'm in. Link to post Share on other sites
wildspoke 2 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 Two square if you please.$20 already sent via Full Tilt Screen Name: Wildspoke Link to post Share on other sites
rcgs59 15 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 2 squares please shipped from Pokerstars $20.00 Link to post Share on other sites
qyayqi 11 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 you could change yours up with jeepster's idea: total of the digits of the score first (ie 17-12 becomes square 8-3). i'm pretty sure he is correct that it flattens the probabilities. Link to post Share on other sites
GetSprung 0 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 you could change yours up with jeepster's idea: total of the digits of the score first (ie 17-12 becomes square 8-3). i'm pretty sure he is correct that it flattens the probabilities.The whole fun of football squares is just having everything be random. Random number assignment and random name pulling. Last number used it pretty standard for these things. No need to change it. If we don't do last digit plays I think I'll be pulling out of this little shindig. Link to post Share on other sites
Suited_Up 2 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 The whole fun of football squares is just having everything be random. Random number assignment and random name pulling. Last number used it pretty standard for these things. No need to change it. If we don't do last digit plays I think I'll be pulling out of this little shindig.It's still totally random, but it solves the problem of there only being like 5 or 6 good squares out of 100. Link to post Share on other sites
PokerFan 0 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 you could change yours up with jeepster's idea: total of the digits of the score first (ie 17-12 becomes square 8-3). i'm pretty sure he is correct that it flattens the probabilities.King has made a decision on this and I agree with him if you want it done different run your own pool. Link to post Share on other sites
Suited_Up 2 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 King has made a decision on this and I agree with him if you want it done different run your own pool.You're not Rdog, stfu! Link to post Share on other sites
GetSprung 0 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 You're not Rdog, stfu!He's not old? I don't follow. Link to post Share on other sites
PokerFan 0 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 You're not Rdog, stfu!Care to take it outside? Link to post Share on other sites
Suited_Up 2 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 Care to take it outside?Bring your hat and gloves!!For the record, I'm not saying I disagree with your thoughts, just that you aren't qualified to give them. lol.Edit: I'm drunk and elitist! Link to post Share on other sites
PokerFan 0 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 Bring your hat and gloves!!For the record, I'm not saying I disagree with your thoughts, just that you aren't qualified to give them. lol.I'd be pretty quiet if I need to be qualified before I spoke....... Link to post Share on other sites
Suited_Up 2 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 I'd be pretty quiet if I need to be qualified before I spoke.......Good point. Link to post Share on other sites
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