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Cool, can you ship it back? 2-7 SUCKS BIG HUEVOS!!
I will buy it off you for $5
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Cool, can you ship it back? 2-7 SUCKS BIG HUEVOS!!
Gallo I was listening to some spanish tape on my mp3 player I forgot I had on it on my way to LA this week. Let me know how I'm doing so far...Lo quiera dos muy bueno cervezas para mi a hora!
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Gallo I was listening to some spanish tape on my mp3 player I forgot I had on it on my way to LA this week. Let me know how I'm doing so far...Lo quiera dos muy bueno cervezas para mi a hora!
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Super Bowl SquaresThis is a re-run of a post I ran a year ago:Three Super Bowls ago, I wrote this post over at Sabernomics. In it, I looked at your probability of winning a squares pool with any given square. For example, I found that in a one-unit-per-square pool, either of the ‘0/7′ squares would have an expected value of about 3.8 units. Compare that with, say, a ‘5/6′ square, which has an expected value of 0.22, or the lowly `2/2′ square and its expected value of .04. Because it was all the data I had at the time, I only considered the last digits of the final scores of games, but someone correctly pointed out in the comments that most pools also give prizes for (the last digits of) the cumulative scores at the end of each quarter.Well, now I have score-by-quarter data for the entirety of the NFL’s 2-point-conversion era (1994–present), so it’s time for an update.I’m sure there are lots of ways to do this, but a bit of googling indicates that a standard payout structure is something like 10% of the pot after each of the first three quarters, and 70% for the final. This doesn’t alter things too drastically, but it does have a couple of effects. * The ‘0/7′ squares enjoy an even larger advantage over an average square. The ‘0/7′ squares have an expected value of about 4.9 under this scheme. * The ‘0/0′ square starts climbing the charts.More than 20% of all games are in a ‘0/0′ situation (remember, that includes 10-0 and 10-10 as well as 0-0) after one quarter. At halftime, about 7.5% of all games are a ‘0/0.’ So the more weight you put on the intermediate stages, the better the ‘0/0′ square looks. Here is a chart that shows the expected value of a given square after each quarter, along with a final column that shows the expected value under a 10/10/10/70 system:+-----+-----+------+------+------+------+------+| | | q1ev | q2ev | q3ev | q4ev | ev |+-----+-----+------+------+------+------+------+| 7 | 0 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 4.9 || 0 | 0 | 20.5 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 4.5 || 3 | 0 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 4.1 || 7 | 7 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 3.3 || 7 | 4 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.1 || 7 | 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 2.7 || 4 | 0 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.4 || 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.8 || 3 | 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.8 || 4 | 3 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 || 7 | 1 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 || 6 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 || 4 | 4 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 || 6 | 3 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 || 1 | 0 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 || 7 | 6 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.1 || 3 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 || 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 || 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 || 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 || 9 | 7 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 || 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 || 9 | 3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 || 9 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 || 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 || 8 | 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 || 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 || 5 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 || 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 || 9 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 || 7 | 2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 || 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 || 8 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 || 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 || 2 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 || 9 | 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 || 9 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 || 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 || 8 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 || 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 || 8 | 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 || 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 || 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 || 9 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 || 8 | 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 || 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 || 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 || 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 || 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 || 9 | 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 || 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 || 9 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 || 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 || 9 | 9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 || 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |+-----+-----+------+------+------+------+------+Here’s how to read that. Take the top line for example. If you have one of the two ‘0/7′ squares, then your expected value is 11.8% of the first-quarter pot, 5.6% of the second-quarter pot, and so on. With the 10/10/10/70 system, your overall expected value would be about 4.9.As I was poking around the web looking for info on standard payout schemes for these kinds of pools, I came across this page. One of the commenters there suggests using not the final digit of each team’s score, but the final digit of the sum of each team’s score. So a 17 would be an 8, a 22 would be a 4, and a 38 would be a 1.I was too lazy to check this one out quarter-by-quarter, but just looking at final scores, this scheme produces a much flatter expected value curve....
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Super Bowl Squares+-----+-----+------+------+------+------+------+| | | q1ev | q2ev | q3ev | q4ev | ev |+-----+-----+------+------+------+------+------+| 7 | 0 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 4.9 || 0 | 0 | 20.5 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 4.5 || 3 | 0 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 4.1 || 7 | 7 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 3.3 || 7 | 4 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.1 || 7 | 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 2.7 || 4 | 0 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.4 || 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.8 || 3 | 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.8 || 4 | 3 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 || 7 | 1 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 || 6 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 || 4 | 4 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 || 6 | 3 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 || 1 | 0 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 || 7 | 6 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.1 || 3 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 || 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 || 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 || 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 || 9 | 7 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 || 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 || 9 | 3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 || 9 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 || 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 || 8 | 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 || 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 || 5 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 || 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 || 9 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 || 7 | 2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 || 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 || 8 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 || 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 || 2 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 || 9 | 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 || 9 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 || 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 || 8 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 || 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 || 8 | 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 || 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 || 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 || 9 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 || 8 | 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 || 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 || 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 || 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 || 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 || 9 | 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 || 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 || 9 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 || 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 || 9 | 9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 || 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |+-----+-----+------+------+------+------+------+
I'm screwed
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I just wanted to clarify one thingIs the final score after 4 quarters or if there happens to be OT , after OT??On the payout it says after 4 quarters, so am I right in assuming we dont count what happens in OT?

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I just wanted to clarify one thingIs the final score after 4 quarters or if there happens to be OT , after OT??On the payout it says after 4 quarters, so am I right in assuming we dont count what happens in OT?
Final score is final score not necessarily the end of the 4th quarter.
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Final score is final score not necessarily the end of the 4th quarter.
ok cool..there goes my 24 -24 scenario then.. :club:
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+-----+-----+------+------+------+------+------+| | | q1ev | q2ev | q3ev | q4ev | ev |+-----+-----+------+------+------+------+------+| 7 | 0 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 4.9 |......| 4 | 0 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.4 || 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.8 || 3 | 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.8 |......| 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 || 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 || 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 |......| 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |+-----+-----+------+------+------+------+------+Here’s how to read that. Take the top line for example. If you have one of the two ‘0/7′ squares, then your expected value is 11.8% of the first-quarter pot, 5.6% of the second-quarter pot, and so on. With the 10/10/10/70 system, your overall expected value would be about 4.9.As I was poking around the web looking for info on standard payout schemes for these kinds of pools, I came across this page. One of the commenters there suggests using not the final digit of each team’s score, but the final digit of the sum of each team’s score. So a 17 would be an 8, a 22 would be a 4, and a 38 would be a 1.I was too lazy to check this one out quarter-by-quarter, but just looking at final scores, this scheme produces a much flatter expected value curve....
I have 2.6-equivalent squares... not bad...
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Super Bowl SquaresThis is a re-run of a post I ran a year ago:Three Super Bowls ago, I wrote this post over at Sabernomics. In it, I looked at your probability of winning a squares pool with any given square. For example, I found that in a one-unit-per-square pool, either of the ‘0/7′ squares would have an expected value of about 3.8 units. Compare that with, say, a ‘5/6′ square, which has an expected value of 0.22, or the lowly `2/2′ square and its expected value of .04. Because it was all the data I had at the time, I only considered the last digits of the final scores of games, but someone correctly pointed out in the comments that most pools also give prizes for (the last digits of) the cumulative scores at the end of each quarter.Well, now I have score-by-quarter data for the entirety of the NFL’s 2-point-conversion era (1994–present), so it’s time for an update.I’m sure there are lots of ways to do this, but a bit of googling indicates that a standard payout structure is something like 10% of the pot after each of the first three quarters, and 70% for the final. This doesn’t alter things too drastically, but it does have a couple of effects. * The ‘0/7′ squares enjoy an even larger advantage over an average square. The ‘0/7′ squares have an expected value of about 4.9 under this scheme. * The ‘0/0′ square starts climbing the charts.More than 20% of all games are in a ‘0/0′ situation (remember, that includes 10-0 and 10-10 as well as 0-0) after one quarter. At halftime, about 7.5% of all games are a ‘0/0.’ So the more weight you put on the intermediate stages, the better the ‘0/0′ square looks. Here is a chart that shows the expected value of a given square after each quarter, along with a final column that shows the expected value under a 10/10/10/70 system:+-----+-----+------+------+------+------+------+| | | q1ev | q2ev | q3ev | q4ev | ev |+-----+-----+------+------+------+------+------+| 7 | 0 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 4.9 || 0 | 0 | 20.5 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 4.5 || 3 | 0 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 4.1 || 7 | 7 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 3.3 || 7 | 4 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.1 || 7 | 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 2.7 || 4 | 0 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.4 || 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.8 || 3 | 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.8 || 4 | 3 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 || 7 | 1 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 || 6 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 || 4 | 4 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 || 6 | 3 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 || 1 | 0 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 || 7 | 6 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.1 || 3 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 || 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 || 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 || 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 || 9 | 7 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 || 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 || 9 | 3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 || 9 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 || 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 || 8 | 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 || 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 || 5 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 || 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 || 9 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 || 7 | 2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 || 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 || 8 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 || 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 || 2 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 || 9 | 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 || 9 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 || 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 || 8 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 || 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 || 8 | 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 || 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 || 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 || 9 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 || 8 | 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 || 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 || 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 || 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 || 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 || 9 | 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 || 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 || 9 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 || 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 || 9 | 9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 || 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |+-----+-----+------+------+------+------+------+Here’s how to read that. Take the top line for example. If you have one of the two ‘0/7′ squares, then your expected value is 11.8% of the first-quarter pot, 5.6% of the second-quarter pot, and so on. With the 10/10/10/70 system, your overall expected value would be about 4.9.As I was poking around the web looking for info on standard payout schemes for these kinds of pools, I came across this page. One of the commenters there suggests using not the final digit of each team’s score, but the final digit of the sum of each team’s score. So a 17 would be an 8, a 22 would be a 4, and a 38 would be a 1.I was too lazy to check this one out quarter-by-quarter, but just looking at final scores, this scheme produces a much flatter expected value curve....
I love me some me.
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I think we need to start another board, maybe for $10 to fill it up fast, ANYONE agree?

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I was thinking about doing this.
I think you should make another thread about it. I don't have the time to commit to it but would buy a few squares
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