Flipping Coins

[Potomophobia 17]

A friend of mine mentioned this to me, and I thought I would post it here, because none of us have a life.You have $1,000. A friend says that he will pay you twice your bet amount, every time you flip heads. So, you bet $1, it comes up tails, you lose $1. You bet $1, it comes up heads, you get $2 from him (but lose your original $1). (EDIT: i.e. It's a 2 for 1 payout when you win).However, he decides to make things a bit more interesting. You are required to bet 1% of your bankroll on each of 1 million coinflips, and after 1 million coin-filps, he will pay you an additional bonus of 5% of whatever your current bankroll is. If your bankroll drops below $1.00, the bet is off and you lost $999, but he'll gladly give you the nickel bonus.Assume that 1 million coinflips can be done within a 24 hour period.Assume that the odds of flipping heads is exactly 1 to 1.Do you take the bet?Edited to hopefully be more clear.

There's the rub. If none of you see it, too bad. After that I quit reading. Just another con man.

[SeattlePoker 0]

It's not as tricky as it sounds. It takes just two flips to show the downward spiral beginning.Flip one you win, Bankroll equals $1010.00. Now you must bet $10.10. If you lose second flip, you are at $999.90.or,Flip one you lose, Bankroll equals $990.00. Now your bet is $9.90. If you win second flip, you are at $999.90.So, in both scenarios, you won one and lost one, so it seems you should be even right? But your not. Because of the 1% rule, you are down $0.10. Now play this out a million times, and your are all but guaranteed to go broke.

[king1305 0]

The rake always wins.

[dapokerbum 0]

okay, lets have a agreed upon poster flip a coin and create a sequence of 50 results. every time it comes up HTH in the sequence i get $200 from you and every time it comes up HTT you get $150 from me. how's that?how much?i used a $1 gold coin with John Adams' face on it.

I'll flip the coin for you ... not like i'm doing anything constructive at work anyways!

[BaseJester 1]

But in the short term (around 100,000 flips), I would occasionally get some HUGE bankrolls, even though I was still more likely to lose than not. In other words, somewhere between 100,000 and 1,000,000 filps, it switches from +EV to -EV.

I don't believe this is the case. EV adds. The EV of each flip is 0. So the EV of the flipping a whole bunch of times is also 0.It's just that there are some very unlikely cases where we make a very large amount of money.

[thebottomline 0]

$br = 1000;$max = 0;for ($i = 0; $i < 1000000 && $br > 1; $i++){	$wager = $br * 0.01;	if (rand (0,1)) {		$br = $br + $wager;	} else {		$br = $br - $wager;	}	if ($br > $max) $max = $br;}if ($br < 1) {	echo 'you lose after '.$i." flips. Your max was $max\n";} else {	echo "remaining br = ".$br." with bonus = " .$br*1.05."\n";}

...thanks. I meant in which computer or something a long those lines, but that response means I no doubt wouldn't know how to use it anyway.And pontomophobia, unless I simply can't see your point, the boldened part of the post in your quote is no guarantee of anything negative, it has an edge of 0 for both involved. You're being paid 1:1 on a 1:1 proposition, and in the long run it would be completely break even, no?If you read the rest of the post, the actual con comes into play..EDIT: Unless of course you're saying in the long run you'd eventually lose the # of flips in a row that you had $ of course. But other than that I see it as a break even proposition until you factor in the 1% rule.

[oldmangrimis 0]

okay, lets have a agreed upon poster flip a coin and create a sequence of 50 results. every time it comes up HTH in the sequence i get $200 from you and every time it comes up HTT you get $150 from me. how's that?how much?i used a $1 gold coin with John Adams' face on it.

I thought you wanted the other side. If I understand correct you said you want the times the series will come up more often and you give me the other series. And becouse you get the series that come up more often I asked for odds. Then you offered me to give you odds (you get 200 and i get 150). Can you make this clear?What spookey is I have one goin in my pocket to try this and it a $1 gold coin with John Adams' face on it.

[FARGOpokerND 22]

It's not as tricky as it sounds. It takes just two flips to show the downward spiral beginning.Flip one you win, Bankroll equals $1010.00. Now you must bet $10.10. If you lose second flip, you are at $999.90.or,Flip one you lose, Bankroll equals $990.00. Now your bet is $9.90. If you win second flip, you are at $999.90.So, in both scenarios, you won one and lost one, so it seems you should be even right? But your not. Because of the 1% rule, you are down $0.10. Now play this out a million times, and your are all but guaranteed to go broke.

Except that you get 2:1 when you win, so if you win 1st you have $1020 and if you lose 2nd, you have $1009.80

[thebottomline 0]

Except that you get 2:1 when you win, so if you win 1st you have $1020 and if you lose 2nd, you have $1009.80

You don't, you get 1/1, even money. If you're posting, you post 1% of roll (=$10), leaving you with $990. When you win, you get $20 and are up to $1010.

[oldmangrimis 0]

It's not as tricky as it sounds. It takes just two flips to show the downward spiral beginning.Flip one you win, Bankroll equals $1010.00. Now you must bet $10.10. If you lose second flip, you are at $999.90.or,Flip one you lose, Bankroll equals $990.00. Now your bet is $9.90. If you win second flip, you are at $999.90.So, in both scenarios, you won one and lost one, so it seems you should be even right? But your not. Because of the 1% rule, you are down $0.10. Now play this out a million times, and your are all but guaranteed to go broke.

This is interesting. Can This be put into bankroll management?Take a break even player ( a player that has ~EV) and tell that player to play 1% of his bankrow. So break even player are gauranteed to go broke.

[SeattlePoker 0]

Except that you get 2:1 when you win, so if you win 1st you have $1020 and if you lose 2nd, you have $1009.80

If you actually get 2:1 odds, then it's a no brainer, take the bet. But, if you put in a dollar and only get two back if you win, that is only 1:1 odds because you already put a dollar in. The way the question is worded, you are not getting 2:1 odds (although OPs parenthetical "EDIT" does confuse things).

[thebottomline 0]

This is interesting. Can This be put into bankroll management?Take a break even player ( a player that has ~EV) and tell that player to play 1% of his bankrow. So break even player are gauranteed to go broke.

People who are break even after rake, and always bet the same %age of their roll, yes. People who are break even after rake etc. and stick to the same buyin however, are break even.

[BaseJester 1]

It's not as tricky as it sounds. It takes just two flips to show the downward spiral beginning.Flip one you win, Bankroll equals $1010.00. Now you must bet $10.10. If you lose second flip, you are at $999.90.or,Flip one you lose, Bankroll equals $990.00. Now your bet is $9.90. If you win second flip, you are at $999.90.So, in both scenarios, you won one and lost one, so it seems you should be even right? But your not. Because of the 1% rule, you are down $0.10. Now play this out a million times, and your are all but guaranteed to go broke.

Nonsense.You left out WW and LL.LW -0.10WL -0.10WW +20.10LL -19.90= 0

[JustLikeNegs 1]

is this a very well disguised advert for rakeback?

[SeattlePoker 0]

Nonsense.You left out WW and LL.LW -0.10WL -0.10WW +20.10LL -19.90= 0

Interesting point. But, for example WWWL = 1019.99799 (+19.99799)and LLLW = 980.00199 (-19.99801)When you factor in at least one loss into any sequence, the reciprical (just as likely) with just one win shows the negative EV.

[david_keena 0]

Do you take the bet?

NO i run bad

[oldmangrimis 0]

People who are break even after rake, and always bet the same %age of their roll, yes. People who are break even after rake etc. and stick to the same buyin however, are break even.

So let give two exp.Your Bankroll and always bet the same % of the roll. Bankroll($50,000) and play 1%($500). You move down in limit when you hit a downswing and up in limit when you hit a rush. So the theory here say buy doing this you gauranteed to go broke.andThe theory here say you break even if you stick to the same buyin (limits), never moveing up or down.

[BaseJester 1]

When you factor in at least one loss into any sequence, the reciprical (just as likely) with just one win shows the negative EV.

Well ****ing stop doing that, and you'll start getting the right answer.

[thebottomline 0]

So let give two exp.Your Bankroll and always bet the same % of the roll. Bankroll($50,000) and play 1%($500). You move down in limit when you hit a downswing and up in limit when you hit a rush. So the theory here say buy doing this you gauranteed to go broke.andThe theory here say you break even if you stick to the same buyin (limits), never moveing up or down.

In theory if it's break even then it's the same as flipping a coin, 1:1, but obviously with poker it's so much more complicated hand on hand etc. If it were a rakeless double or nothing scenario, in theory a break even player would be better to play the same buyin mathematically than to always play the same % of their roll.. I think. However, with a limited roll this would never work for the same reason we actually employ bankroll management, variance, and the fact that playing with a lesser portion of your bankroll (more often than not) will increase the chance you have of making money, so it wouldn't be a 1:1 proposition.Basically it doesn't work in poker because it's never an exactly 1:1 proposition unless its a winner take all HU sng with no rake, no variance and exactly a 1:1 chance based on skill level. If it were, then this coin flipping trick would apply. Also if he used less/more of his roll then it would have to still be a 1:1 chance all things considered for this to be true.

[MovingIn 0]

No, because it's basically an even money proposition at best, and the 1% bankroll requirement means an increased risk of losing any profit made from winning streaks. I can find better ROI investments for my $1000.

[oldmangrimis 0]

Nonsense.You left out WW and LL.LW -0.10WL -0.10WW +20.10LL -19.90= 0

LW -0.10WL -0.10WW +20.10LL -19.90WWL +9.899LLW -10.099= -0.2 (the other was a joke)

[BaseJester 1]

LW -0.10WL -0.10WW +20.10LL -19.90WWL +9.899LLW -10.099= .2

You're ****ing with me, right?

[oldmangrimis 0]

You're ****ing with me, right?

just joking forget that last post.

[Potomophobia 17]

"You have $1,000. A friend says that he will pay you twice your bet amount, every time you flip heads. So, you bet $1, it comes up tails, you lose $1. You bet $1, it comes up heads, you get $2 from him (but lose your original $1). (EDIT: i.e. It's a 2 for 1 payout when you win)."Read this carefully. Think about it.You are getting scammed. And he is not your friend.

[Suited_Up 2]

You're ****ing with me, right?

just joking forget that last post.

If only all your arguments went so smoothly.