Bowl Season

[Tactical Bear 3]

If somebody wants to toss all the lines up in here, go ahead. These are the Pinny lines as of right now for some of the bigger games:RoseBowl:USC -10 v. Penn StateOrange Bowl:Cincy -1 v. Va TechSugar Bowl:Alabama -10 v. UtahFiesta Bowl:Texas -10 v. Ohio StateNational Championship:Florida -3 v. OklahomaI don't have any great ideas for these. Hopefully I get to lay the points with Cincy, and I'll probably play Utah, too. I'm going to hedge some of my Oklahoma future at -150 (or whatever I get). I like Ohio State, too.

[powerpoker 0]

Saturday, December 20, 200811:00 am (ESPN) Eagle Bank Bowl @RFK Stadium - Washington, DC 201 Navy 202 Wake Forest -3 41½ 2:30 pm (ESPN) New Mexico Bowl @ University Stadium - Albuquerque, NM 203 Fresno State -3 -115 60 204 Colorado State -105 4:30 pm (ESPN2) St Petersburg Bowl @ Tropicana Field - St Petersburg, FL 205 Memphis 206 South Florida -13 51 8:00 pm (ESPN) Las Vegas Bowl @ Sam Boyd Stadium - Las Vegas, NV 207 BYU 208 Arizona -3 61 Sunday, December 21, 20088:15 pm (ESPN) (TM CH) New Orleans Bowl @ Louisiana Superdome - New Orleans, LA 209 Troy -4 55 210 Southern Mississippi Tuesday, December 23, 2008 8:00 pm (ESPN) Poinsetta Bowl @ Qualcomm Stadium - San Diego, CA 211 TCU -1½ 45 212 Boise State Wednesday, December 24, 2008 8:00 pm (ESPN) Hawaii Bowl @Aloha Stadium - Honolulu, HI 213 Notre Dame 214 Hawaii -1½ 47½ Friday, December 26, 2008 7:30 pm (ESPN) Motor City Bowl @Ford Field - Detroit, MI 215 Florida Atlantic 216 Central Michigan -6½ 61½ Saturday, December 27, 2008 1:00 pm (ESPN) Meineke Care Bowl @Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, NC 217 West Virginia 218 North Carolina pk 44 4:30 pm (ESPN) Champs Sports Bowl @Citrus Bowl Stadium - Orlando, FL 219 Wisconsin 220 Florida State -4½ 52½ 8:00 pm (ESPN) Emerald Bowl @ AT&T Park - San Francisco, CA 221 Miami Florida 222 California -6½ 49½ Sunday, December 28, 2008 8:00 pm (ESPN) Independence Bowl @Independence Stadium - Shreveport, LA 223 Northern Illinois -2 47 224 Louisiana Tech Monday, December 29, 2008 3:00 pm (ESPN) Papajohns Bowl @Legion Field - Birmingham, AL 225 NC State 226 Rutgers -6½ 51 8:00 pm (ESPN) Alamo Bowl @Alamodome - San Antonio, TX 227 Northwestern 228 Missouri -13½ 65½ Tuesday, December 30, 2008 4:30 pm (ESPN) Humanitarian Bowl @Bronco Stadium - Boise, ID 229 Nevada -1 57½ 230 Maryland 8:00 pm (NFL) Texas Bowl @Reliant Stadium - Houston, TX 231 Western Michigan -115 232 Rice -3 -105 71½ 8:00 pm (ESPN) Holiday Bowl @Qualcomm Stadium - San Diego, CA 233 Oregon 234 Oklahoma State -4 76½ Wednesday, December 31, 2008 12:00 pm (ESPN) Armed Forces Bowl @ Amon G Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX 235 Air Force -115 236 Houston -3 -105 64 2:00 pm (CBS) Sun Bowl @ Sun Bowl Stadium - El Paso, TX 237 Pittsburgh -115 238 Oregon State -3 -105 53 3:30 pm (ESPN) Music City Bowl @LP Field - Nashville, TN 239 Boston College -4 41 240 Vanderbilt 6:00 pm (NFL) Insight Bowl @Sun Devil Stadium - Tempe, AZ 241 Minnesota 242 Kansas -10 57 7:30 pm (ESPN) Chick - Fil - A Bowl @Georgia Dome - Atlanta, GA 243 LSU 244 Georgia Tech -3½ 49 Thursday, January 01, 2009 11:00 am (ESPN) Outback Bowl @Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL 245 Iowa -3 -115 43 246 South Carolina -105 1:00 pm (CBS) Gator Bowl @ Municipal Stadium - Jacksonville, FL 247 Clemson -3 -105 54½ 248 Nebraska -115 1:00 pm (ABC) Capital One Bowl @Citrus Bowl Stadium - Orlando, FL 249 Michigan State 250 Georgia -7½ 54 5:00 pm (ABC) Rose Bowl @ Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA 251 Penn State 252 Southern Cal -10 45 8:15 pm (FOX) Orange Bowl @Dolphin Stadium - Miami, FL 253 Virginia Tech -115 254 Cincinnati -2 -105 41 Friday, January 02, 2009 2:00 pm (FOX) Cotton Bowl @Cotton Bowl - Dallas, TX 255 Mississippi 256 Texas Tech -6½ 70½ 5:00 pm (ESPN) Liberty Bowl @ Liberty Bowl - Memphis, TN 257 East Carolina -2 41 258 Kentucky 8:15 pm (FOX) Sugar Bowl @Louisiana Superdome - New Orleans, LA 259 Utah -115 260 Alabama -10½ -105 45 Saturday, January 03, 2009 12:00 pm (ESPN2) International Bowl @ Rogers Center - Toronto, Canada 261 Buffalo 262 Connecticut -4 51½ Monday, January 05, 2009 8:15 pm (FOX) Fiesta Bowl @ University of Phoenix Bowl - Glendale, AZ 263 Ohio State 264 Texas -10 53½ Tuesday, January 06, 2009 8:00 pm (ESPN) Gmac Bowl @Ladd - Peebles Stadium - Moblie, AL 265 Ball State -2½ 76½ 266 Tulsa Thursday, January 08, 2009 8:15 pm (FOX) BCS Championship Game @Dolphin Stadium - Miami, FL 267 Florida -3 -120 71½ 268 Oklahoma +100

[Tactical Bear 3]

That Hawaii line is just mean-spirited.

[HollywoodAFD 0]

If somebody wants to toss all the lines up in here, go ahead. These are the Pinny lines as of right now for some of the bigger games:RoseBowl:USC -10 v. Penn State USC 2unitsOrange Bowl:Cincy -1 v. Va Tech Va Tech 2unitsSugar Bowl:Alabama -10 v. Utah Bama 3unitsFiesta Bowl:Texas -10 v. Ohio State Can't play it but I would go LONG on Texas hereNational Championship:Florida -3 v. Oklahoma Florida 5unitsI don't have any great ideas for these. Hopefully I get to lay the points with Cincy, and I'll probably play Utah, too. I'm going to hedge some of my Oklahoma future at -150 (or whatever I get). I like Ohio State, too.

[CindyLou 11]

If you are in a bowl pool where you are only picking winners without regard to any spread, would you be well served to just pick favorites across the board? I only watch the big games and all I know about the teams is what is discussed in this forum, so it's not like I'll have any inside knowledge on anything.

[Tactical Bear 3]

If you are in a bowl pool where you are only picking winners without regard to any spread, would you be well served to just pick favorites across the board? I only watch the big games and all I know about the teams is what is discussed in this forum, so it's not like I'll have any inside knowledge on anything.

Yeah, probably. When are your picks due? Let me take a look, and I'll see if I can find any games where, maybe, the books like the dog outright. Like in an NCAA tournament pool, picking a few upsets in a pool with more entries would make sense for differentiation purposes.

[CindyLou 11]

Yeah, probably. When are your picks due? Let me take a look, and I'll see if I can find any games where, maybe, the books like the dog outright. Like in an NCAA tournament pool, picking a few upsets in a pool with more entries would make sense for differentiation purposes.

Before the first game (the 20th?). It's a private pool, but run through an online site, so I can make my picks right up to kick off time. There will be 40 people participating with a $250 buy-in, so there's some money to be had here.Minor bowls are 1 point, traditional bowls are 2 to 3 points (depending), BCS bowls are 4 points, and the championship is 5 points.Any help is much appreciated.

[Tactical Bear 3]

Before the first game (the 20th?). It's a private pool, but run through an online site, so I can make my picks right up to kick off time. There will be 40 people participating with a $250 buy-in, so there's some money to be had here.Minor bowls are 1 point, traditional bowls are 2 to 3 points (depending), BCS bowls are 4 points, and the championship is 5 points.Any help is much appreciated.

Okay, Cindy. I don't really have time to go through and look at them all right now (which probably wouldn't do you much good anyway, since the late info is bound to change things), but I'll try to post my leans on every bowl by next Wednesday (both ATS, and outright, since it could be of some value to people who are thinking about playing them with a bookie or in a similar, against-the-spread type pool). I'll probably post Vegas opening lines, current lines, consensus data, and then the moneyline stuff. If you have any questions about any of that, I'll answer as best I can. Send me a PM and remind me, because I rarely check this forum anymore, and just post nonsensical ramblings in the Sick Thread.Should be a good exercise for me, anyway. I'm in a few bowl contests, so I'll need to get my shit together pretty soon anyway.

[CindyLou 11]

I didn’t mean for you to go through each game, I was more interested to know if the contrarian philosophy is useful in a situation where there is no spread. If the basic premise is that the books know more than we know, then wouldn’t it stand to reason that the books’ favorite is almost always the actual favorite? I would think there would have to be a heavy public soft spot for certain teams to swing a team from underdog to favorite. So if the public overrated, say, Florida by 5 points, and then Florida opened as a less than 5 point favorite, then we should consider that Florida is an actual underdog. Do I have that thinking right?

[Tactical Bear 3]

I didn't mean for you to go through each game, I was more interested to know if the contrarian philosophy is useful in a situation where there is no spread. If the basic premise is that the books know more than we know, then wouldn't it stand to reason that the books' favorite is almost always the actual favorite? I would think there would have to be a heavy public soft spot for certain teams to swing a team from underdog to favorite. So if the public overrated, say, Florida by 5 points, and then Florida opened as a less than 5 point favorite, then we should consider that Florida is an actual underdog. Do I have that thinking right?

Yup. It's just tough to quantify those spots, and the edges are probably smaller than most people realize. If, say, Florida is getting hammered as 3.5 point favorites, it probably means the line is closer to 2.5 (meaning the books are giving themselves a very important 1pt of value), but that Florida will still win more than half the time. There are going to be some spots, however, where a team is laying 1.5 or 2, and, in reality, the other team will win more than half the time. I'll be looking for those spots for you, and going through every game just as a fun learning exercize.