Crisis Of Confidence......

[Craigdog 0]

I have been on a disastrous run lately and would like some advice from more experienced players whom, no doubt, have been in this situation many many times...In January I started playing 100Nl holdem and over about 4-5 months I beat the game for about 25 buys in's, nothing too exceptional granted, but I felt my tightish steady ABC approach worked well and I was winning about $400-700 per month. I Then decided to start some 200Nl and see if I could adapt to the more aggressive style, and I did. I steadily won about $2800 over about 20,000 hands...again nothing special i know, but again I'm beating the level. It's then things turn ugly.... I started to lose at $100Nl as I experimented with looser style as seen in CR vids.... At the same time I took a shot at $400nl and have lost $1600 from 3000 hands....(I think I have been running really bad), to compound this, I have dropped over $1200 playing 200NL.I feel like I can't catch a break and have lost 1/2 my roll in 15,000 hands. any words of advice on how to combat this dreadful run?My stats are as follows50Nl - 22/17/2.55 over 15,000 hands100Nl - 20/15/2.53 over 37,000 hands200Nl - 19/15/2.76 over 21,000 hands400NL - 21/16/2.62 over 3000 handsObviously my problem is I still think I can beat 200NL but I don't have the roll for it anymore, but it's hard not to play the games I have beaten in the past.Is this standard big downswing? any words of wisdom out there?

[SCS 0]

Your sample sizes are nowhere near being significant. It's impossible to tell if you are a winning player or not by looking at them.

[Snake Plissken 0]

this thread caught my attention cuz I suffer a lack of confidence myself due to a 7 BI downswing. It really blows and I know for sure that I'm one of the top dogs at the limit I'm playing. Can't really help u out here but take a break (as I am right now), review HH, play lower limits to get your act together, learn another form of poker (play low limit games that wont hurt you more). GL

[trystero 0]

You've really got to understand how integral luck actually is. Review your hands, and if you're honestly playing well - i.e. you can't spot MAJOR leaks or big mistakes - then you just have to weather the storm. The benefit of online poker is that you're not at the mercy of luck - your success, unlike in live poker, isn't determined by how well or badly you run (of course, in live poker you have the luxury of tells). By playing so many hands you can approach your actual winrate - all the while improving your game. Some truth I heard recently: you can never be IN a downswing because such a scenario implies that the deck's conspiring against you. Just because you've had kings run into aces twice in the past hour doesn't mean it's anymore likely to happen again. You can HAVE BEEN in a downswing, but you cannot BE in one. As you improve in limits, expect the swings to be much wider. Don't be suprised when you're breakeven/down after 10-20k hands. If it can happen to the best players in the world it can happen to you. One of the reasons I like to watch PAD/HSP is because it puts the game into perspective. I see great players make suspect plays and drop huge buy-ins. They call on the river with one pair and lose. They run set into set or they run aces into sets. They're drawn out on for stacks. None of this bothers them, at least not obviously, and so long as they're not Phil Hellmuth. So I have no business playing poker if I can't stomach the "swings" at $25 NL.

[Snake Plissken 0]

You've really got to understand how integral luck actually is. Review your hands, and if you're honestly playing well - i.e. you can't spot MAJOR leaks or big mistakes - then you just have to weather the storm. The benefit of online poker is that you're not at the mercy of luck - your success, unlike in live poker, isn't determined by how well or badly you run (of course, in live poker you have the luxury of tells). By playing so many hands you can approach your actual winrate - all the while improving your game. Some truth I heard recently: you can never be IN a downswing because such a scenario implies that the deck's conspiring against you. Just because you've had kings run into aces twice in the past hour doesn't mean it's anymore likely to happen again. You can HAVE BEEN in a downswing, but you cannot BE in one. As you improve in limits, expect the swings to be much wider. Don't be suprised when you're breakeven/down after 10-20k hands. If it can happen to the best players in the world it can happen to you. One of the reasons I like to watch PAD/HSP is because it puts the game into perspective. I see great players make suspect plays and drop huge buy-ins. They call on the river with one pair and lose. They run set into set or they run aces into sets. They're drawn out on for stacks. None of this bothers them, at least not obviously, and so long as they're not Phil Hellmuth. So I have no business playing poker if I can't stomach the "swings" at $25 NL.

really liked what u said here. nj

[Acid_Knight 2]

I have been on a disastrous run lately and would like some advice from more experienced players whom, no doubt, have been in this situation many many times...In January I started playing 100Nl holdem and over about 4-5 months I beat the game for about 25 buys in's, nothing too exceptional granted, but I felt my tightish steady ABC approach worked well and I was winning about $400-700 per month. I Then decided to start some 200Nl and see if I could adapt to the more aggressive style, and I did. I steadily won about $2800 over about 20,000 hands...again nothing special i know, but again I'm beating the level. It's then things turn ugly.... I started to lose at $100Nl as I experimented with looser style as seen in CR vids.... At the same time I took a shot at $400nl and have lost $1600 from 3000 hands....(I think I have been running really bad), to compound this, I have dropped over $1200 playing 200NL.I feel like I can't catch a break and have lost 1/2 my roll in 15,000 hands. any words of advice on how to combat this dreadful run?My stats are as follows50Nl - 22/17/2.55 over 15,000 hands100Nl - 20/15/2.53 over 37,000 hands200Nl - 19/15/2.76 over 21,000 hands400NL - 21/16/2.62 over 3000 handsObviously my problem is I still think I can beat 200NL but I don't have the roll for it anymore, but it's hard not to play the games I have beaten in the past.Is this standard big downswing? any words of wisdom out there?

You really really need bigger samples of hands. Also, you're looking at things the wrong way. You're telling us how much $$ you won or lost, but buyins are what count. Losing 4 buyins at a limit is nothing, especially in 3000 hands.I've been really impressed to see you post in the strat forums since you joined, climbing from $10NL up to where you are now. The thing is, you're way underrolled for 2/4. You should probably have at least 25 buyins, or $10,000 for play 2/4 and it looks as if you have about half of that.I would recommend looking at the bigger pots that you've lost and won and honestly ask yourself how well you played them. Also, drop back to a limit that you're better rolled for so that you don't feel the ups and downs as much.Best of luck

[mtdesmoines 3]

You really really need bigger samples of hands. Also, you're looking at things the wrong way. You're telling us how much $$ you won or lost, but buyins are what count. Losing 4 buyins at a limit is nothing, especially in 3000 hands.I've been really impressed to see you post in the strat forums since you joined, climbing from $10NL up to where you are now. The thing is, you're way underrolled for 2/4. You should probably have at least 25 buyins, or $10,000 for play 2/4 and it looks as if you have about half of that.I would recommend looking at the bigger pots that you've lost and won and honestly ask yourself how well you played them. Also, drop back to a limit that you're better rolled for so that you don't feel the ups and downs as much.Best of luck

Echo most of this. A week or two ago, I lost about 10 buy ins with under sets in the space of a week and ran too cold to make it back in other hands. Obv I don't feel I misplayed any of the set hands, it's the tilt hands that surround them and the running cold that worry me. So I dropped from $100 NL to $50 NL, some full stacked $25 NL tables and a few $10 SNGs. I'm crushing them and rebuilding my roll. And my rakeback should hit in a day or two, which will give me a couple more $100 NL buy ins. Which means I'll be back at $100 NL in a couple days. I guess I would hate to see you go bust after playing, growing, etc., so well. I haven't played more than a few hundred hands of each, but I also think that $200 NL on line is a tougher game than $400 NL.