Tell Me If The Math Is Right Here..

[sennin 0]

Lately ive been wondering about how much i can shove in BvB situations in MTT's, so here's a formula I have, and just want to make sure it's not flawed. Net gain from shoving: =( ( A * B ) + ( 1 - B ) * ( C * D ) ) - ( 1 - B ) * ( E ) * ( 1 - D ) A=money I win if I shove and he foldsB=% of the time he's foldingC=chips I win if im called and i winD=my winning % vs his calling rangeE=my shove amountis this right? ive gotten some pretty interesting results, and apparently i can shove extremely wide which is why I want to make sure my math isnt flawed here

[antistuff 0]

do you have to give your variables numbers?it makes me want to multiply everything by eight.

[sennin 0]

do you have to give your variables numbers?it makes me want to multiply everything by eight.

lol sry i just copied it from my excel file, i changed it to letters for you

[SGFULTON83 0]

[Frez 0]

At a quick glance it looks good to me. It is an interesting concept, one that some players put to very effective use.

[mtdesmoines 3]

Lately ive been wondering about how much i can shove in BvB situations in MTT's, so here's a formula I have, and just want to make sure it's not flawed. Net gain from shoving: =( ( A * B ) + ( 1 - B ) * ( C * D ) ) - ( 1 - B ) * ( E ) * ( 1 - D ) A=money I win if I shove and he foldsB=% of the time he's foldingC=chips I win if im called and i winD=my winning % vs his calling rangeE=my shove amountis this right? ive gotten some pretty interesting results, and apparently i can shove extremely wide which is why I want to make sure my math isnt flawed here

That's why cash game players call them tourney donks.

[Mr. Sparco 2]

Looks good to me. One thing to realize (you probably do, but I sometimes see people make this mistake) is that in A and C (the chips you can win) you should not include your own shove amount. Also, be careful when including blinds and don't include the extra chips that are in the larger stack.Example: if you have 1000 in chips before posting your blind, your opponent has 1500, you are the small blind and blinds are 100/200, thenA = 300 (chips that are in the pot now)C = 1100 (your blind + his blind + his 800 call of your shove)E = 900 (amount you can lose by shoving instead of folding)Of course, the hard part then is to correctly estimate B and D (Side remark: also realize what you calculate here is your net gain in chips. This can be a bit - in extreme cases a lot - different from your net gain in payout money when you are deep in the tourney. The reason is that the chips you win are always worth a bit less than the chips you lose. Search "ICM" for more on this.)

[Drwnded 0]

Looks pretty good as far as it goes - in terms of chip EV, but in a tourney setting chip EV is very different from real money EV.What I mean is, this formula doesn't incorporate the factors related to how the relative value of chips change over the course of a MTT.